Two years ago, the Liberals in BC took 77 of 79 seats and also won the popular vote by a 58% to 22% margin. Ignoring the increasing volatility of politics, many observers thought that Premier Campbell was guaranteed at least two terms in office. However, as the two most recent public opinion polls taken in BC suggest, the BC Liberals are in serious political trouble.

The Ipsos-Reid poll at the end of May gave the BC Liberals 44% against 28% for the NDP and 18% for the Greens. The McIntyre-Mustel poll results were 41% BC Liberal, 36% NDP and 10% Green. However, the underlying numbers reveal a more problematic situation for the Premier than the partisan results suggests. Here are six factors to consider in assessing the political situation in BC at mid-term.

The BC Liberal government is unpopular enough to lose

Ipsos-Reid indicates, by an almost two to one margin (45% to 24%), BC voters think the province is in worse shape than it was two years ago under the NDP. These results are even more problematic for the BC Liberals on Vancouver Island and in the Interior.

The question closely resembles the ballot question, the question that most voters ask themselves when deciding to re-elect a government. For example, in the US Presidential election of 1992 when Clinton defeated Bush, the margin of people who considered themselves worse off than four years earlier was 10-15%. The BC Liberals are facing ballot question numbers significantly worse than that.

Moreover, the Premiers popularity numbers indicate more than 40% of voters strongly disapprove of his performance. Only 11% strongly approve. Opposition to the government is hardening.

With an election two years away, the voters are looking at an assessment of the governments performance. Those results are negative for the government. Historically, right-wing parties do not fall below 40% in BC, and their core support is less likely to drift than that of the NDP.

Even on the issue of voting intentions, the numbers are not great. The BC Liberals are presently at 41%-44% in the polls, two per cent behind the combined NDP/Green vote. Further, every time the right wing party  BC Liberal or Social Credit – has fallen below 42% in the last 50 years, they have lost.

The Interior of BC is competitive again.

The collapse of rural support for the BC Liberals parallels the experience of the NDP. Rural and Interior voters turned away from a governing party that appeared urban and distant from their interests. The NDP required a leadership change to provisionally get some voters back in 1996, but the rural collapse was never fully addressed. Historically, voter discontent happens first in the Interior and northern Vancouver Island, portents of future difficulties in the Lower Mainland.

Class war polarization has returned to BC politics.

There is a growing class gap in the electorate. Ipsos-Reid also showed that the public considers the BC Liberal government to have favoured the interests of the very rich and large corporations over the poor, middle-income people and small business.

62% think lower-income people are worse off (compared to only 13% who think they are better off), 47% think middle-income people are worse off (compared to 14% who say better off) and 35% think small business is worse off (compared to 24% who say better off.)

In contrast, 58% of voters think higher-income people are better off under the BC Liberals, and 61% think large corporations are better off.

Ipsos-Reid indicates that BC Liberal support is 19% lower with voters earning less $60,000 a year than it is with voters earning more than $60,000 a year. This gap has consistently expressed itself over the past four major surveys. This is a significantly higher level of class voting than was evident in elections dating back to 1983.

Polarization is good for the NDP  they need a motivated electorate. However, polarizing class war politics is also unpopular with many voters in BC. The electorate sees the BC Liberals as divisive, and their policies are polarizing voters. The NDP can reap the benefits of this situation without being blamed for creating division, a condition of victory for the party.

The electoral system favors the NDP.

If the McIntyre-Mustel results of 41% BC Liberal and 36% NDP hold through to Election Day, the NDP would win a majority government — as it did in 1996 in spite of losing the popular vote 42-39.

The NDP wastes fewer votes in its best seats than the BC Liberals. This is because there is significantly more class consciousness among wealthy voters. The class that most criticize class is most aware of it.

The BC Liberals roll up massive majorities in wealthy ridings. This helps them increase their popular vote but in terms of seats, a one-vote margin or a 10,000 vote margin adds up to the same thing.

In contrast, for example, in strong NDP seats such as Vancouver Hastings and Vancouver Kingsway, the NDP received 55% in 1996. There is a strong right-wing minority in competitive elections amongst poor and working class voters that restrains NDP margins of victory in their best seats. Turnout also tends to be higher in BC Liberal strongholds than NDP strongholds creating larger BC Liberal margins but not changing the seat totals.

In spite of winning the popular vote in 1996 42-39, the BC Liberals weren’t close to winning the election. There were no recounts. And the NDP would have won even if the popular vote results had been 43-38. In 1986, when the Socreds won the popular vote 49-42.5 over Bob Skelly’s NDP, had the NDP only lost by 5%, (48-43) they would have won an electoral majority.

This will always be the case. It is why for partisan reasons the NDP would be nutty to want to change the electoral system. PR is for losers, at least for the left in BC. As long as the NDP is close, the present system favors it.

The Green vote is soft.

The main difference between the Ipsos-Reid and Mustel is in measuring the vote of the NDP and the Greens. Ipsos-Reid has the Greens 8% higher, and Mustel has the NDP 8% higher. This gap has been consistent in each organizations polling over time. It relates to the methodology of the companies.

Ipsos-Reid provides the names of the parties in its question  this tends to favour the Greens and the BC Unity Party. Even the Reform Party, an organization that no longer exists, receives 4% in Mustel. Mustel simply asks for voting intentions without suggesting party names. Using the latter method, almost half of the Green vote falls away.

There is a hard Green vote of 10% in BC which is not going anywhere. However, whichever method is more accurate, the Green vote is soft, and it is likely to move if there is a chance that the BC Liberals can be defeated.

The public has moved on from the 1990s but so far the NDP has not.

In the 2002 municipal elections, candidates closely tied to the NDP (former MLAs Pietro Callendino, Penny Priddy, Jim Doyle and Tim Stevenson as well new Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan, Victoria School Board Chair Charley Beresford, new Penticton Mayor David Perry and new Quesnel Mayor Nate Bello) won significant victories.

This reflected a more balanced view of the NDP and its performance as a governing party.

It is up to the NDP elites to get over their own fixation with the 1990s and present a clear alternative for the future. The NDP establishment is obsessive in its need to blame the past. This is affected, perhaps, by the continuing media attacks on its record. The public, however, is more concerned with the future.

The candidates for the leadership of the NDP have an opportunity to present this alternative and win the next election.

In my next column, I will discuss what they need to do to get there.