Alberta election thread #3

Last night on 22 Minutes:

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/Shows/1221254309/ID=2219057446

Leger poll out today

Wildrose: 41
PC: 34
NDP: 12
Lib: 10
Ab party: 2

Edmonton

PC: 37
Wildrose: 25
NDP: 20
Lib: 12

Some chance of a minority - but the PC campaign has the stench of death about it.  They may fall further before this is over.

At the rate some of these polls are going, the NDP might wind up in official opposition with just 4 or 5 seats...

Can't see the Conservatives falling quite that far.

Does anyone have the results of the previous election transposed on to the new boundaries?

Lorne Gunter has written an article in the Edmonton Sun called: Redford-Alberta's First NDP Premier.

I won't link to it because the article is garbage. He complains that Redford announced new monies for education in the middle of the campaign and says this shows Redford's love of big government. Nevermind that every PC leader, especially King Ralph, has done that in every campaign. During some campaigns they would sometimes announce money for health and education, that had it no been received, the provincial health and education system would have had to default on their bills. It's an old shell game Gunter was all too happy to praise in the past. He is water-carrying for the WRA and has been doing it for months.

The point I did want to make though, is the headline of Gunter's article could help the NDP, especially seeing as it was published in Edmonton's working class paper. It gives the NDP credibility and also suggests the question: Why vote for a loser imitation (NDP Redford), when you can vote for the real thing? It fits with the NDP official opposition federally? Of course, if the NDP had ever had a premier in Alberta, they would have never looked like Redford. They would have been a red-blooded progressive like Grant Notley or Ray Martin or Pam Barrett or Raj Pannu or Brian Mason or maybe someday Rachel Notley. My guess is Lorne Gunter is trying to help drive the PCs vote down and the NDP vote up in Edmonton, to help the WRA (whose support is stronger in the South) get more seats than the PCs.

http://daveberta.ca/2010/06/new-electoral-boundaries-transposed-with-2008-results/

Kim Redford strikes again

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-promises-private-health-care-on-public-dime-to-shorten-waiting-times/article2393848/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Politics&utm_content=2393848

Meanwhile, Progressive Conservative Leader Alison Redford floated the idea of “fast track” emergency room care for “easily identifiable” ailments such as broken bones or burns.

She said it would bypass the current “extended triage process” and direct simpler cases to care more quickly.

“It’s not about more money, but it’s about doing things differently,” she said...Paul Parks, the AMA’s past-president for emergency medicine, said his organization told the provincial health minister in a December letter that lack of acute-care beds and long-term-care facilities was the crux of the problem. In that letter, the AMA suggested the government abandon any fast-track proposal.

“We’re baffled and honestly shocked at this announcement,” Dr. Parks said.

“Every major emergency department within Alberta, and I would say across Canada, already have fast tracks,” he added.

In a news release, Liberal Leader Raj Sherman, a former emergency-room doctor, sarcastically called the Tory plan a “fantastic idea.”

“Why didn’t we think of it earlier? We need to come up with a name for this. Why don't we call it triage?”

Edmonton, Abacus poll (9:00 mark)

PC/WRA/NDP/LIB

35/33/16/13

WRA has 50% in much of the province. Announcer says polls project a WRA majority government. Wild-eyed Alliance to power.

You cannot make assumptions about why people vote for particular political parties. People have their own reasons for voting Wildrose, PC, Liberal, NDP, or Evergreen, and it's a fools game to think that you could win by having parties agree to not run against each other and that would make them stronger, or even that all the voters would line up.

Besides, I think you are a bit pessimistic. The polls I've seen basically have the PCs and Wildrose between 30-40% of the vote. I don't see how any party wins a majority in this scenario. The NDP are polling very well in Edmonton City, and there are a great many seats there. And I would suspect that a great deal of suppport for the Wildrose is simply based on a "throw-out-the-PCs" sentiment. I suspect that Wildrose support may start to stall with the issue of conscience rights and health care, specifically because it touches a nerve on the issue of Ralph Klein's "third way" which caused a popular uproar.

NDP's Mason attacks campaign cynicism

What was it that Brian Mason said about campaigning with civility, again?

Very easily. In Alberta when one party wins the province-wide popular vote by even a modest single digit margin, they tend to "run the tables" when it comes to seats. In the last AB election that led to a change of gov't in 1971, the PCs under Lougheed only beat Social Credit by a modest 46% to 41% margin - but in the seat count the PCs took 49 seats and SC just took 25!

Similarly in the 1993 election the PCs under Klein only narrowly beat the Alberta Liberals under Lawrence Decore 44% to 40% - but in seats the PCs won 51 seats to the Liberals 33.

Mark my words, if the WRA wins the popular vote by 4% or more - they will probably get a majority and with a double digit popular vote lead, they could win a landslide in tersms of seats.

With messaging like this, WR is going to win big.

Alberta Wildrose promises to chop MLA salaries and allow free votes on all bills

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1158554--alberta-wil...