Alberta Election Tuesday April 16 2019

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NorthReport
Alberta Election Tuesday April 16 2019

Rachel Notley calls Alberta election for April 16

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NDP's 'politics of love and hope and optimism' to face Jason Kenney's United Conservative Party

Drew Anderson · CBC News · Posted: Mar 19, 2019 9:12 AM MT | Last Updated: 27 minutes ago

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley speaks in Calgary on March 19, calling an election for April 16. (David Chidley/Canadian Press)

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After weeks of speculation, NDP Leader Rachel Notley has made it official: it's election time in Alberta.

The provincial vote will take place on April 16, she announced Tuesday morning in Calgary.

The start of the campaign comes one day after the governing NDP delivered its throne speech in the legislature and amid a near-constant stream of controversies in recent days involving the party's main rival, the United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney.

Notley focused her attention on those controversies as she called the election before a cheering crowd at the National Music Centre in Calgary, saying she hopes to earn the support of disaffected conservatives.

"A growing number of conservatives here in Calgary and across Alberta are coming to have serious doubts about Jason Kenney as premier," she said. 

She used those controversies as a means to draw a hard line between her party and the UCP.

"The politics of love and hope and optimism always trump the politics of anger, division and fear, and that's why I'm running to be premier," she said. 

Kenney has been weathering controversy over allegations that his campaign collaborated with that of fellow candidate Jeff Callaway in the party's leadership race.

CBC News broke the story last weekend after obtaining documents that show top Kenney campaign staff were in frequent contact with the Callaway campaign, providing Kenney's purported rival with resources including strategic political direction, media and debate talking points, speeches, videos, and attack advertisements — all aimed at undermining Kenney's main political rival, Brian Jean.

'Problem with racism'

Separately, on Monday night, one of Kenney's star candidates dropped out of the running in the Calgary-Mountain View riding following the release of private messages from two years earlier when she talked about a double standard for white supremacist terrorists and said she was saddened by the "demographic replacement of white peoples in their homelands."

In response to a question Tuesday about the controversy Tuesday, Notley said: "I personally do not believe that Jason Kenney is racist, but I believe that the UCP as a party has a problem with racism."

    Notley also focused on the role that a re-elected NDP government would play in what she characterized as a more inclusive province — from rights to incomes.

    She said the election would be fought on the basis of investments in health care, education, diversification of the economy and, of course, pipelines. 

    "The question is this: do Albertans stick together or do we turn on each other?" she said.

    UCP promises corporate tax breaks

    "Jason Kenney wants two Albertas — one for the wealthy and one for the rest of us. He wants two Albertas divided over people's rights.

    "I want to continue to build one Alberta."

    The UCP has also been busy making policy announcements in anticipation of the election call, including corporate tax breaksdifferent minimum wage levels based on experience and age, and a promise to undo some of the NDP's signature bills, including the controversial carbon tax.

    The election isn't just about two parties going head to head, however.

    • Listen toThe Ledge podcast, as CBC's legislative reporters bring you expert analysis and insiders' insight
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    The Alberta Party, led by former PC cabinet minister Stephen Mandel, is largely perceived as the third party in the race, followed by the Alberta Liberals.

    On the right, ousted conservative MLA Derek Fildebrandt will go into the election as the head of the Freedom Conservative Party.

    Under provincial legislation, the vote had to be held before May 31 and have a 28-day campaign.

    Throne speech touts NDP record

    A new session of the legislature began Monday with a throne speech that focused on the NDP government's accomplishments in the last four years — from building schools, roads and hospitals to providing more supports for seniors, students and those in need.

    It also criticized the former Progressive Conservative government and said the New Democrats have been working to overcome the failures of the past.

    The spring election will be the first for the United Conservative Party and Kenney, who was a federal cabinet minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper.

    The United Conservative Party was Kenney's answer to uniting the right, and was established in July 2017 by merging the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta and the Wildrose Party.

    Parties and seats

    Out of Alberta's 12 registered political parties, six parties hold seats in the legislature as of the election call, but only three party leaders hold seats:

    • NDP Leader Rachel Notley.
    • UCP Leader Jason Kenney.
    • Freedom Conservative Party Leader Derek Fildebrant.

    Representatives of the remaining three parties that hold seats include:

    • Alberta Party Opposition House Leader Greg Clark. (Party Leader Stephen Mandel will be running as a candidate in Edmonton-McClung against incumbent NDP MLA Lorne Dach).
    • Liberal MLA David Swann. (Party Leader David Khan was defeated by Kenney in the 2017 Calgary-Lougheed byelection.)
    • PC MLA Richard Starke, the only MLA from the PC or Wildrose to not join the merged UCP caucus.

    Here's how the 87 seats in Alberta's legislature break down by party as of the election call.

    • 52 New Democratic Party seats.
    • 25 United Conservative Party seats.
    • 3 Alberta Party seats.
    • 3 Independent seats.
    • 1 Alberta Liberal seat.
    • 1 Freedom Conservative Party seat.
    • 1 Progressive Conservative seat.
    • 1 vacant seat. 

    The three independent MLAs are Prab Gill, Robyn Luff,and Rick Strankman, and the vacant seat was occupied by former Calgary-Varsity MLA Stephanie McLean until her January resignation.

     

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-rachel-notley-announcement-election-1.5062451

    NorthReport
    voice of the damned

    NorthReport wrote:

    This poll is a bit of a downer, to say the least.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/5069555/ucp-lead-ndp-election-poll-ipsos-march-19/

    Yeah, I'm thinking Kamikaze might end up being the provincial equivalent of SNC-Lavalin: something that people probably should be upset about, but aren't, and likely will not be in sufficient numbers to move large blocs of votes. Possibly because, as bad as it is to set up puppet candidates to trash your opponents, at the end of the day, the alleged conspirators were acting as members of their party, hosing other members of their party, rather than as elected officials hosing the general public.  

     

    NorthReport
    NorthReport

    Notley’s election call timing is impeccable. If she can’t win on April 16 she will not have won at any other time

    Aristotleded24

    NorthReport wrote:
    This poll is a bit of a downer, to say the least.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/5069555/ucp-lead-ndp-election-poll-ipsos-march-19/

    Downer? This is among the strongest results for the NDP in the current government's mandate. The scandals around Kenney are only breaking into the public consciousness, and he's having to answer questions about it right now. The one bright spot is Notley and Kenney are even in terms of leadership capabilities.

    The fact is, the NDP way outperformed its normal range of support in public opinion last election. It wouldn't have been easy to sustain that level of support forever. What it seems to have done is to set a much higher floor for the NDP. The previous high-water mark for  public support of the NDP in Alberta was just shy of 30%. If you take away the public opinion polls during the last election, along with the level of support received in the last election, I suspect that most of us would be ecstatic to see the Alberta NDP polling at this level of public support. So it seems the worst case scenario for the NDP is to elect a very strong and solid opposition party that will be able to go after Kenney right away. Doesn't sound too bad.

    NorthReport
    WWWTT

    Wait North Report. Notley’s strongest play is yet to come. Her sarendipity election call is only icing on the cake.  

    There will be a televised debate, this will give Rachel the opportunity to rip several new assholes into Kenney on public television. 

    Now nothing is guaranteed, but I wouldn’t belittle Notley’s abilities. I still believe Notley is the best politician that Canada has seen in decades!

    Kenney is just a yahoo playing up to yahoo voters. Now that may be good enough to form government in Alberta? 

    Aristotleded24

    WWWTT wrote:
    Wait North Report. Notley’s strongest play is yet to come. Her sarendipity election call is only icing on the cake.

    The thing I don't understand is why she went right from a throne speech to an election? I would have thought that by having the election as late as possible that would have allowed for the UCP leadership scandal to percolate. I also think that a short legislative session would have been a great way to trap him, then she could say, "Kenney voted against public health care, affordable child care, new medical facilities in Red Deer," and so on.

    WWWTT

    Not sure A24? That is a good point!  She’s privy to more info than any of us here are. So I trust that she’s going to make the best possible decision. I’m sure she has weighed the possible opportunities you mentioned in her decision making!

    NorthReport

    Flushing out a UPC white supremacist supporting  candidate and forcing her resignation on the heels of the New Zealand mosque massacre opens the doors for Alberta voters to find out what the UPC is all about. Does Calgary not already have a Muslim Mayor? And Notley has done everything possible that she and Albertans can do to get pipelines built at the same time encouraging industry diversification 

    voice of the damned

    North Report wrote:

    Flushing out a UPC white supremacist supporting  candidate and forcing her resignation on the heels of the New Zealand mosque massacre opens the doors for Alberta voters to what the UPC is all about.

    You ever know someone who has racist opinions about immigrants, but, if he sees a news report about white-supremacists blowing up a black church down in Dixie somewhere, says "Geez, those guys are a bunch of psychos"?

    There's probably the same sort of disconnect among some(though not neccessarily a majority) of the people who vote for Nenshi. They'll vote for a Muslim mayor, think the mass slaughter of Muslims is something to tsk-tsk about, but if shown anti-immigration statements by a political candidate(especially one running for a party seeking to oust the architects of a hated tax), will just think oh well, everyone's entitled to an opinion.

    Plus, in this case, they've got the added rationale that the offending commentator was kicked out of the race in very short order, thus supposedly proving that the party doesn't tolerate that sort of thing.

     

     

    voice of the damned

    Aristotleded24 wrote:

    WWWTT wrote:
    Wait North Report. Notley’s strongest play is yet to come. Her sarendipity election call is only icing on the cake.

    The thing I don't understand is why she went right from a throne speech to an election? I would have thought that by having the election as late as possible that would have allowed for the UCP leadership scandal to percolate.

    The thing is, what happens if, after a few months of investigation, the RCMP says "Nope, no money changed hands between Kenney and Callaway, so it's all kosher".

    Okay, morally speaking, that is, at best, a break-even for Kenney, and at worst, you've still got the pretty obvious fact that he concocted a fraudulent campaign to attack Brian Jean, inadvertantly duping anyone who sincerely went to work for Callaway.

    But still, even just a mere finding of no-criminality might be spun as a positive victory for Kenney, putting the wind back in his sails just in time for the election. I'm not saying any of this was what motivated Notley to call an earlier elections, just that a later election wouldn't neccessarily be any better for exploiting public disquiet over Kamikaze.

    WWWTT

    You could be right as well VOTD. I am leaning a little more on what you're suggesting.

    I'm also wondering if spring elections in general favour the NDP as opposed to other seasons such as fall winter summer? I'm thinking this may be a factor. Not sure if April is really in the spring season in Alberta?

    voice of the damned

    WWWTT wrote:

    You could be right as well VOTD. I am leaning a little more on what you're suggesting.

    I'm also wondering if spring elections in general favour the NDP as opposed to other seasons such as fall winter summer? I'm thinking this may be a factor. Not sure if April is really in the spring season in Alberta?

    I won't be mentioning any names, but a long time ago, there was media discussion about whether or not a provincial NDP government would be calling an election soon, and the media speculation(well, at least one reporter that I saw, anyway) was that a winter election would be best for the party, since it would mean voters in rural areas would be more likely to stay home.

    Looking that particular election up on wikipedia, it does seem that the election was held at a time of year that was, technically, winter.

    voice of the damned

    By the way, a duckduckgo on "kamikaze candidate" turned up nothing but articles about Kenney/Callaway on the front page, and I had to scroll down to about the third page to get a reference from another political jurisdiction(some Republican candidate down in the US), and even then, I'd say the Alberta scandal took up about 95% of what I looked at.

    Looks like we can add "Kamikaze candidate" to "Lake of Fire" for uniquely Albertan political nomeclature.

    NorthReport
    NorthReport

    Star UCP candidate who resigned over white supremacist comments also questioned value of Pride parades

     

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/caylan-ford-resigns-ucp-candidate-1.5062198

    NorthReport

    Former Alberta UCP candidate who helped execute kamikaze campaign asks for judicial inquiry into Kenney's role

     

    Happy Mann says he was at meeting with UCP Leader Jason Kenney where plan was devised

    Sarah Rieger · CBC News · Posted: Mar 18, 2019 2:56 PM MT | Last Updated: March 18

    Former UCP candidate Happy Mann says he was at a meeting with UCP Leader Jason Kenney where a plan was devised to run a kamikaze candidate to knock Brian Jean out of the party's 2017 leadership race. (CBC)

    819 comments

    A former Alberta United Conservative Party nomination race candidate who said he collaborated on a "kamikaze" campaign to tank Brian Jean and ensure Jason Kenney's success in the party's 2017 leadership race is calling for a judicial inquiry into the situation.

    Hardyal Singh (Happy) Mann says he attended a meeting at Jeff Callaway's house on July 19, 2017, along with Kenney and other party insiders, where it was decided Callaway would join the UCP leadership race to run a campaign aimed at discrediting Jean, before dropping out of the race to endorse Kenney.

    Stop denying it, stop lying to Albertans , come clean and accept the responsibility as I did.— Happy Mann, to Jason Kenney

    He said he was also told not to worry about where the funds for Callaway's campaign would come from.

    "Kenney's been pointing the fingers at volunteers on this and that but reality is different," Mann told CBC News on Monday.

    "The reality is that yes, this has all been planned when Kenney was present."

    Mann said he wants a judicial inquiry, and he's asking for Kenney and his team to detail under oath the scope of their involvement in the plan.

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    "Until this is assigned as a judicial inquiry nobody will come forward under oath," he said.

    "Let's all take a collateral responsibility that, yes, the mistake has been made, the kamikaze campaign was planned and executed. … Stop denying it, stop lying to Albertans, come clean and accept the responsibility as I did."

    Mann's comments reaffirm what's shown by a leaked cache of documents obtained by CBC News — that Kenney's campaign provided Callaway's campaign with resources including strategic political direction, media and debate talking points, speeches, videos, and attack advertisements, all with the aim of destroying Jean's shot at the leadership and leaving the path clear for Kenney's win.

    Kenney and Callaway have denied they collaborated on a kamikaze campaign.

    When asked for a response to Mann's allegation, a UCP spokesperson directed CBC News to comments Kenney made Friday at a media availability, when he said he met with Callaway in July 2017 to seek his endorsement.

    "At that meeting, he told me he had this idea about running his own leadership campaign. … I think staff between the two campaigns kept in touch after that. But I had absolutely no knowledge whatsoever about how they financed their campaigns," he said.

    The RCMP and Alberta's election commissioner are investigating allegations of irregular financial contributions to Callaway's campaign, and Mann said he has supplied the authorities with documents relating to his donations and donations from two of his family members.

    Mann won't say if he donated his own money

    He said he won't say whether he donated his own money or money supplied by someone else to Callaway's campaign until the investigation is closed.

    "My money or not, I already disclosed that to the election commissioner … whatever was the truth, I gave it to the authorities."

    The election commissioner has issued three fines relating to Callaway's campaign:

    • Contributor Karen Brown was fined $3,500 for donating funds that were given to her by another person.
    • Co-campaign manager Cameron Davies was fined twice, for a total of $15,000, for obstruction of an investigation.

    Mann said Davies was one of those in attendance at the July 19, 2017, meeting at Callaway's home. Davies' lawyer, Dale Fedorchuk, said Davies was no longer one of his clients as of Sunday.

    Earlier in March, the UCP removed Randy Kerr as the party's candidate for Calgary-Beddington, saying Kerr wasn't "forthcoming" about his donation to Callaway's campaign.

    Mann said he doesn't want smaller party operatives to be the only ones taking the fall for the allegations.

    "It was Kenney's appetite to run somebody who could be that stalking horse. It ended up with Jeff Callaway … we are just the facilitator in the middle, to execute the plan that was made," Mann said.

    "But if Kenney is putting this on the volunteers that, 'No, no, no, I was not aware,' then can he deny on record that he never approached Derek Fildebrandt?"

    A document prepared by Davies, obtained by CBC News, outlines Callaway was not the party's first choice—  Fildebrandt, then a UCP MLA, was considered but ultimately determined to be not "suitable" for the role.

    • Listen toThe Ledge podcast, as CBC's legislative reporters bring you expert analysis and insiders' insight

    Charge of directing campaign 'ridiculous:' Kenney

    Kenney told media following Monday's throne speech that his conversations with Callaway and Fildebrandt were being mischaracterized by Mann and that he was simply meeting with both politicians to court their endorsements.

    He also said he isn't aware of his campaign sharing materials with Callaway's campaign, but if they did, he doesn't see it as a violation of election law.

    "The notion that sending press clippings and a couple of memes to a campaign is directing it is ridiculous," Kenney said.

    "Our team was producing a lot of graphic and video content, a lot of which we didn't use, maybe some of that was shared."

    Kenney said he was aware Callaway was attacking Jean during his campaign, but that he didn't direct Callaway to do so.

    As for the investigation into allegations of improper financial contributions, Kenney said he'll be disappointed if that's found to be the case.

    "It appears ethical and legal lines appear to have been crossed with respect to the financing of another campaign," Kenney said.

    Not just 'sour grapes,' says Mann

    Mann, who previously ran twice for the Wildrose Party, said his allegations and those brought forward by fellow whistleblower Prab Gill, a former UCP MLA, can't be dismissed as simply "sour grapes." 

    Mann was disqualified from running for the UCP after it was alleged his team was involved in the assault of a local reporter, and Gill quit the party after allegations of ballot stuffing.

    He said it's hypocrisy for conservatives to laud Jody Wilson-Raybould, a Liberal MP who spoke out against her own party recently after stepping down from the federal cabinet, but not him.

    "If Jody Wilson[-Raybould] is a hero for conservatives, then why is Happy Mann and Prab Gill sour grapes for Albertans? If you want Canadians or Albertans to know the truth, then let us also speak as you want Jody Wilson[-Raybould] to speak." 

     

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/happy-mann-kamikaze-campaign-1.5061407

    kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

    Notley got 40% of the vote last election. The real questions are can the UCP actually unite the right completely and what role will Liberal voters play this time. Its 4% share of the vote is up for grabs and might come into play in some ridings.

    I would say that winter time is when the people in farm communities would have a higher turnout compared to their wimpy urban neighbours. In rural Alberta the idea of not going somewhere because there is a snow storm, short of a blizzard, is a non starter. Blizzards affect urban voters just as much as rural ones as the latest Montreal by-election shows. It seems to me that it is seeding time and harvest time that keep the farmers focused and in their fields and could lead to a smaller turnout.

    NorthReport
    bekayne
    quizzical

    so the United right is polling less as one party than the % they got separately at the last election.

    voice of the damned

    kropotkin1951 wrote:

    I would say that winter time is when the people in farm communities would have a higher turnout compared to their wimpy urban neighbours. In rural Alberta the idea of not going somewhere because there is a snow storm, short of a blizzard, is a non starter. Blizzards affect urban voters just as much as rural ones as the latest Montreal by-election shows. It seems to me that it is seeding time and harvest time that keep the farmers focused and in their fields and could lead to a smaller turnout.

    Could be. What I reported was what was speculated by a CBC(or maybe CTV) reporter. The election in question was held at the very end of winter, mid-March, FWIW.

    voice of the damned

    kropotkin1951 wrote:

    Notley got 40% of the vote last election. The real questions are can the UCP actually unite the right completely and what role will Liberal voters play this time. Its 4% share of the vote is up for grabs and might come into play in some ridings.

    Also the Alberta Party, who, according to the poll posted below, are at double the Liberals numbers. I think they fish in the same electoral waters as the Liberals.

    NorthReport

    Notley is only behind now by 11% That’s significantly better than it has been 

    Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

    Looks like Notley needs to focus big time on Calgary.  Edmonton is a lock for the Dippers and Calgary is what needs to be flipped, if I'm understanding that poll right.

    How many seats does Medicine Hat have?  My impression was that the NDP did fairly well there last time(on edit) disregard that question, I just found the answer on Wikipedia.

    voice of the damned

     

    Ken Burch wrote:

    How many seats does Medicine Hat have?  My impression was that the NDP did fairly well there last time.

    Two electoral districts with the word "Medicine Hat" in the name, according to the wiki article on this election. One of them is a merger of two previously existing districts, including the one held by Fildebrandt.

    I'd be surprised if the NDP holds onto anything in the Hat; Lethbridge seems like a better bet for the party in that region of the province. Semi-educated speculation on my part.

    NorthReport

    Alberta Election: UCP holds commanding lead as campaign begins

     

    http://angusreid.org/kenney-notley-alberta-election-2019/

    NorthReport

    Governing this province should be an honour, not an inheritance

     

    ‘This is the rage of a province that knows the world is changing around it'

    Jen Gerson · for CBC News · Posted: Mar 22, 2019 5:30 AM MT | Last Updated: 5 hours ago

    Jason Kenney addresses a crowd of about 500 UCP members at an event in Edmonton in February. (Scott Neufeld/CBC)

    104 comments

     

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-election-campaign-ndp-united-conservative-party-1.5066997

    Nam

    NorthReport wrote:

    Alberta Election: UCP holds commanding lead as campaign begins

     

    http://angusreid.org/kenney-notley-alberta-election-2019/

    I can't find when the polling for this took place.  Quite a few things have come to light in the past few days, so the timing is important.  Any idea when the questions were asked?

    bekayne

    Nam wrote:

    NorthReport wrote:

    Alberta Election: UCP holds commanding lead as campaign begins

     

    http://angusreid.org/kenney-notley-alberta-election-2019/

    I can't find when the polling for this took place.  Quite a few things have come to light in the past few days, so the timing is important.  Any idea when the questions were asked?

    March 11-18

    http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.03.22-Alberta-horse...

    bekayne

    https://pressprogress.ca/ucp-candidate-said-his-thoughts-on-cardston-alberta-are-coloured-by-aryan-undertones-in-bizarre-letter/

    United Conservative Party candidate Grant Hunter believes there’s “something special” about the people of Cardston, Alberta.

    And it might just be that they’re “reared” from “superior stock,” albeit he admits that thought “reeks of ‘Aryan’ undertones.”

    NorthReport
    jerrym

    Mainstreet has Cons at 50.7%, NDP at 37.8%, Alberta Party at 4.3%, and Liberals at 2.8%.

    The gap between the NDP and the UCP is now 14 points – down ten points from January – but it is Jason Kenney’s party that is in the lead as the Alberta election gets under way.

    Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls. The poll surveyed 1160 Albertans on March 19, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.88% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

    “The NDP have posted very significant gains since January as the Kamikaze scandal has pushed some Albertans away from the UCP,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research.

    Among decided and leaning voters, the UCP with Jason Kenney as leader have 50.7% (-1.6% from Mainstreet’s January poll), while the NDP led by Rachel Notley have 37.8% (+9.3%). The Alberta Party led by Stephen Mandel have 4.3% (-3.4%), and the Alberta Liberal Party with David Khan at the helm have 2.8% (+0.9%). 

    “Rachel Notley begins this election by taking the first necessary steps to beat the UCP,” added Maggi. “The NDP have taken support away from the Liberals, Alberta Party, and Greens, and have taken the lead among women, voters between the age of 18 to 34, and in Edmonton. But to win in April the NDP need to eat into UCP support, which has been stable for months,” he added. 

    https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-gain-nine-points-since-january-but...

     

    NorthReport
    voice of the damned

    I don't think that Cardston dog is gonna hunt...

    The article detailed a cryptic letter to the editor that Hunter submitted to the Cardston Temple City Star in 2010, in which he praised the town of Cardston for bringing up some of the “highest-standard individuals imaginable.”

    “How then can a small town of 3,500 people churn out such a high number of individuals of substance?” the letter read in part. “Perhaps they just came from superior stock, but that though reeks of ‘Arian’ (SIC) undertones.”

    In the letter, Hunter pointed out that he has lived in Calgary, Mexico and South Africa and that his family has “been exposed to the harsh realities of communities where ‘God and family first’ principles are not practiced.”

    If my students asked me about what it means to say that X "reeks" of Y, I'd say that it's used to mean that Y is a bad thing, and hence X should be considered bad by association. Because, as far as my experience goes, "reek" is almost always used to refer to an unpleasant smell.

    It seems likely to me the guy's point was that since we can rule out "old stock" genes as the reason for certain places producing good people, the only logical alternative must be devotion to God and family. Which is a false dilemma, but not the same thing as racism.

    Oh, and he did misspell "Aryan", unless he was talking about the belief that Jesus was not part of a trinity.  

     

    nicky

    Mainstreet Research is running a daily tracking poll for the Alberta election. You have to pay to have access and are sworn not to reveal the numbers. Nevertheless, Mainstreet has revealed this much in a tweet.

     8m8 minutes ago

    More

    If you are following the , the latest Daily tracker show a tightening race With 25 days to go, what was once an unlikely path for at re-election, is now not out of the realm of possibility.

    I  think I can say that in addition to the horserace considerably tightening, Kenney's approval rating is sharply down in the first few days of the campaign.

    If you want more you will have to subscribe.

    voice of the damned

    Kenney's approval rating is sharply down in the first few days of the campaign.

    No surprise there. The guy is simply not an appealing individual, by conventional standards, and his personal approval ratings have long been lower than Notley's.  

    I think the only reason Kenney has gotten as far as he has provincially is that the NDP victory and the government's subsequent policies polarized the province to such a degree that an otherwise unelectable entity with good connections and strategy could waltz in and corner the opposition market. If Jim Prentice were still premier, and Kenney had started some Wildrose-style far-right party to oust him, I doubt they'd get anywhere at all.

    That said, uncharismatic hacks exploiting the unpopularity of a sitting government CAN actually go far in a race. I could think of some examples involving the NDP, but I don't want to start a flame war.  

    NorthReport
    NorthReport
    nicky

    Teasing tweet from Mainstreet about poll to be released later today

    Looking at the numbers from the past 48 hours in #abpoli⁠ ⁠Attachment.png is jaw dropping

     

    @MainStResearch #abvote⁠ ⁠Attachment.png Daily Tracker subscribers will get an update later today

    NorthReport
    robbie_dee

    nicky wrote:

    Teasing tweet from Mainstreet about poll to be released later today

    Looking at the numbers from the past 48 hours in #abpoli⁠ ⁠Attachment.png is jaw dropping

     

    @MainStResearch #abvote⁠ ⁠Attachment.png Daily Tracker subscribers will get an update later today

    Mainstreet hasn't exactly acquitted itself well in the last few high profile races they've polled. They said Bill Smith was going to win the Calgary mayoralty in 2017 and the B.C. Liberals were going to win Nanaimo earlier this year. Not so much. I'm happy to see any positive news for the NDP but I'm not sure my blood pressure could handle all the salt I'd have to take with a Mainstreet Daily Tracking subscription.  

    NorthReport
    Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

    robbie_dee wrote:

    nicky wrote:

    Teasing tweet from Mainstreet about poll to be released later today

    Looking at the numbers from the past 48 hours in #abpoli⁠ ⁠Attachment.png is jaw dropping

     

    @MainStResearch #abvote⁠ ⁠Attachment.png Daily Tracker subscribers will get an update later today

    Mainstreet hasn't exactly acquitted itself well in the last few high profile races they've polled. They said Bill Smith was going to win the Calgary mayoralty in 2017 and the B.C. Liberals were going to win Nanaimo earlier this year. Not so much. I'm happy to see any positive news for the NDP but I'm not sure my blood pressure could handle all the salt I'd have to take with a Mainstreet Daily Tracking subscription.  

    Mind you, in both cases Mainstreet underreported support for the non-right wing candidate.  This might mean that the NDP is actually doing better than Mainstreet's numbers, whatever they might be, suggest.

    robbie_dee

    Ken Burch wrote:

    robbie_dee wrote:
    Mainstreet hasn't exactly acquitted itself well in the last few high profile races they've polled. They said Bill Smith was going to win the Calgary mayoralty in 2017 and the B.C. Liberals were going to win Nanaimo earlier this year. Not so much. I'm happy to see any positive news for the NDP but I'm not sure my blood pressure could handle all the salt I'd have to take with a Mainstreet Daily Tracking subscription.  

    Mind you, in both cases Mainstreet underreported support for the non-right wing candidate.  This might mean that the NDP is actually doing better than Mainstreet's numbers, whatever they might be, suggest.

    Could be. I read somewhere they thought the problem was that Mainstreet was undersampling young people who had no landline phone only cell. Of course I assume that they’ve tried to fix that. Won’t know whether they were successful or not until Election Day. Also possible they could overcorrect. My main gripe, though, was that Mainstreet is trying to charge a fee for its service but hasn’t really demonstrated that what they have is worth paying for. I will wait for more credible polls.

    Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

    robbie_dee wrote:

    Ken Burch wrote:

    robbie_dee wrote:
    Mainstreet hasn't exactly acquitted itself well in the last few high profile races they've polled. They said Bill Smith was going to win the Calgary mayoralty in 2017 and the B.C. Liberals were going to win Nanaimo earlier this year. Not so much. I'm happy to see any positive news for the NDP but I'm not sure my blood pressure could handle all the salt I'd have to take with a Mainstreet Daily Tracking subscription.  

    Mind you, in both cases Mainstreet underreported support for the non-right wing candidate.  This might mean that the NDP is actually doing better than Mainstreet's numbers, whatever they might be, suggest.

    Could be. I read somewhere they thought the problem was that Mainstreet was undersampling young people who had no landline phone only cell. Of course I assume that they’ve tried to fix that. Won’t know whether they were successful or not until Election Day. Also possible they could overcorrect. My main gripe, though, was that Mainstreet is trying to charge a fee for its service but hasn’t really demonstrated that what they have is worth paying for. I will wait for more credible polls.

    An entirely valid response.

    voice of the damned

    Just to clarify, Mainstreet requires you to pay for access, and then swear not to reveal the numbers? I'm curious as to how they can enforce that latter part. Short of the blabbermouth going on TV and saying "According to what I just read on Mainstreet...", how would they know who's breaking the code of silence?

    Is it just one of those "Click here to confirm that you are over 18" sorta things?

    nicky

    You’re right VOD.

    it’s just a promise when you sign up.

    that said, principals of Mainstreet often tweet suggestively about their upcoming results. I have shared the info in those tweets but do not feel free to pass on the actual numbers.

    i know Mainstreet has had some spectacular misses but it is generally pretty accurate. It got the last Alberta election right. It’s recent Ontario tracking poll was also very accurate, including numerous riding polls.

    quizzical

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