Alberta Election Tuesday April 16 2019

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voice of the damned

WWWTT wrote:

Notley May be playing mind games here to throw Kenney off balance? I’d do the same thing here in her position   

Quite possibly, too. The thing is, though, you don't want the idea of "The NDP is too chicken to debate" to circulate too long in the public imagination, even if you do eventually join the show. So, it can be a risky tactic.

 

quizzical
jerrym

I posted this elsewhere but it also applies to the Alberta election.  A group of doctors in Alberta are attempting to get voters in the province to focus on the harmful effects of climate change on people's health. They focused their efforts on Calgary, where the election is likely to be decided, with a series of billboards and newspaper ads that run in Calgary, trying to capture the attention of those who are not either climate change activists or deniers. This is likely a hard sell in the oil capital, but I salute their effort. 

The doctors also posted the following overview of research on the risks to people's health from climate change on the internet. The 7,142 premature deaths in 2015 from fine particulate matter, much of it from fossil fuels, noted in the posted article of the doctors below is far greater than the 1,860 killed in car accidents in the same year (https://www.cacp.ca/index.html?asst_id=1626)

On November 29th, a global research team hailing from 27 academic institutions and inter-governmental organizations, released the 2018 edition of the report, Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change”. 

Released for the first time in 2017, the Lancet Countdown tracks 41 indicators related to the health impacts of climate change, adaptation to climate change, policies to reduce climate emissions, the financial and economic drivers of climate change, and the political and public drivers of climate change.

Global Findings 

With data collected from 196 countries, the 2018 report identifies extreme heat as the health impact of greatest
concern. The researchers note that global temperatures have been increasing steadily since 1990 with the
highest increases in Europe. They found that 157 million more vulnerable people were exposed to
heat waves 
in 2017 than were exposed in 2000Explaining that the hearts, kidneys and livers of people cannot handle temperatures greater than 40 degrees C, the researchers estimated that 153 billion hours of labour were lost to extreme heat in 2017. This is 62 billion hours more than would have been lost in 2000.

The researchers also found increasing rates of insect- or animal-borne diseases in Africa, a downward trend in agricultural yields in 30 countries, and increasing economic losses due to extreme weather events. They report that in 2017, 712 extreme weather events occurred resulting in $326 billion (US funds) in economic losses; nearly a three-fold increase in economic losses over 2016.

The report concludes that “A lack of progress in reducing emissions and building adaptive capacity threatens both human lives and the viability of national health systems they depend on, with the potential to disrupt core public health infrastructure and overwhelm health services.” 

Canadian Findings and Recommendations 

On the same day, the Lancet Countdown team, working in collaboration with the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) and the Canadian Public Health Association (CPHA), released the second version of the report, Lancet Countdown 2018 Report: Briefing for Canadian Policymakers” ...

This brief notes that extreme heat claimed the lives of at least 90 Canadians this summer and reports that mean temperatures are increasing across Canada and more people are being exposed to higher temperatures.  ...

The brief, which observes that Canada is not yet doing its fair share to reduce its climate emissions, examines the health costs associated with air pollution from energy production and use in Canada. The researchers estimate that chronic exposure to fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution from human activity in Canada resulted in 7,142 premature deaths in 2015. They attributed: 345 of those deaths to coal- fired power plants, 105 to coal-related industries, 2762 to non-coal industries, 1063 to land-based transportation, and 1282 to the agricultural sector. 

The health impacts from this air pollution were valued at $53.5 billion. The researchers note that many of the actions needed to reduce climate emissions will also reduce air pollution-related health impacts. For
example, Canada’s transportation and oil and gas sectors, which are significant contributors to air pollution, are also responsible for 25% and 26% respectively of all Canada’s climate emissions. 

The brief recommends that Canada increase its ambition to reduce climate emissions and air pollution in Canada and twin this goal with Just Transition Policies. 

https://cape.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/CAPE-Factsheet-Lancet-2018.pdf

 

voice of the damned

Climenhaga on Fildebrandt's (non)participation in the debates... 

...Fildebrandt is the leader of a party planning to field a significant slate of candidates and that already has an MLA, the leader himself, in the House. The argument he should be excluded because the FCP ran no candidates in 2015 is fatuous. I don't recall the UCP running any candidates then either.

I'd agree with this, if the argument being used is that his party didn't run candidates in 2015. Is that the only argument being advanced?

https://tinyurl.com/yyy5y3mg

 

 

 

 

NorthReport

 

The reality is the business community does not want to split the right-wing vote

voice of the damned

NorthReport wrote:

 

The reality is the business community does not want to split the right-wing vote

Well, if the business-community has some sort of Illuminati-like power to decide who gets into the debates, they've really been forfeiting that privilege for a while now. Far-right parties have participated in TV debates in Alberta going back to at least the 1980s. Most recently, the  powers-that-be were unable to keep the PCs and Wildrose from fighting over the limelight in the 2011 and 2015 debates.

NorthReport

Yes I know CTV Rogers Bell Global are all charitable institutions when everyone volunteers who works there and nobody there pays any attention whatsoever to which government gets elected

voice of the damned

NorthReport wrote:

Yes I know CTV Rogers Bell Global are all charitable institutions when everyone volunteers who works there and nobody there pays any attention whatsoever to which government gets elected

Umm, I never said anything like that. I just said that they have a history of allowing two conservative parties to share the stages in debates, so that probably rules out fear of vote-splitting as the reason they're not allowing it this time.

quizzical

voice of the damned wrote:

Climenhaga on Fildebrandt's (non)participation in the debates... 

...Fildebrandt is the leader of a party planning to field a significant slate of candidates and that already has an MLA, the leader himself, in the House. The argument he should be excluded because the FCP ran no candidates in 2015 is fatuous. I don't recall the UCP running any candidates then either.

I'd agree with this, if the argument being used is that his party didn't run candidates in 2015. Is that the only argument being advanced?

https://tinyurl.com/yyy5y3mg

 

 

 

 

maybe this why Notley is thinking about not attending either?

did you see my link to who the C3s were?

voice of the damned

maybe this why Notley is thinking about not attending either?

Notley had better NOT be seriously thinking about skipping the debates. If she does that, you might as well just go to wikipedia right now and post an all-blue electoral map for the 2019 election.

jerrym

voice of the damned wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

 

The reality is the business community does not want to split the right-wing vote

Well, if the business-community has some sort of Illuminati-like power to decide who gets into the debates, they've really been forfeiting that privilege for a while now. Far-right parties have participated in TV debates in Alberta going back to at least the 1980s. Most recently, the  powers-that-be were unable to keep the PCs and Wildrose from fighting over the limelight in the 2011 and 2015 debates.

After ruling Alberta for 44 years the right-wing, and virtually everyone else for that matter, did not foresee the possibility of a NDP victory in 2015, so it is not surprising that did not worry about who was on the debate stage. In their view, the winner would be a right-wing party as it has been since the 1930s, if you include Social Credit. Now that the NDP is seen as a possible winner, the MSM plays the right-wing game of helping Kenney avoid criticism from Freedom Conservative Party Leader Derek Fildebrandt.  The MSM's criterion of having members elected in the last election under the party banner in order to be in the debate would eliminate the UCP. Of course that was never going to happen. 

voice of the damned

quizzical wrote:

did you see my link to who the C3s were?

Yeah, but I think I'm pretty much locked out of Facebook. I take it they're something like The Soldiers Of Odin or the Proud Boys or that Wolf Pack thing in Quebec?

 

quizzical

voice of the damned wrote:

quizzical wrote:

did you see my link to who the C3s were?

Yeah, but I think I'm pretty much locked out of Facebook. I take it they're something like The Soldiers Of Odin or the Proud Boys or that Wolf Pack thing in Quebec?

 

 

you're locked out of fb? Lololol 

yup they hung out with the soldiers of Odin, the wolves of Odin and the rest. All 12 of them.

funny thing the soldiers of Odin kicked out what are now the wolves  of Odin saying they're too radical but they all hang together at the Leg.

Aristotleded24

Here is what I think would be fair:

Let the Freedom Conservative Party leader on the debate stage to expose Kenney's underhanded schemes to win the UCP leadership race.

Let the Green Party leader on the debate stage to expose Notley's capitulation and refusal to take on the powerful oil and gas interests who have been running Alberta for a long time.

Let's get this all out in the open. Then people will have all the facts they need to make an informed choice.

voice of the damned

Notley's participation confirmed...

https://tinyurl.com/y3fphcgp

 

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
I don't agree with Notley's fossil fuel policies, but considering the alternative is Kenney and the UCP, I hope she somehow pulls it out.

That means that her continued insistence on being off-side with the rest of the NDP on that issue will continue to be an irritant for the party.

At least her support for the Green Line in Calgary will result in cars being taken off the road and reduced GHG emissions that way. I suppose sometimes we have to appreciate whatever victories are there.

NorthReport
WWWTT

voice of the damned wrote:

Notley's participation confirmed...

https://tinyurl.com/y3fphcgp

 

thanks for providing the link! Thursday is going to be a big day for politics in Canada 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jerrym wrote:
I don't agree with Notley's fossil fuel policies, but considering the alternative is Kenney and the UCP, I hope she somehow pulls it out.

That means that her continued insistence on being off-side with the rest of the NDP on that issue will continue to be an irritant for the party.

At least her support for the Green Line in Calgary will result in cars being taken off the road and reduced GHG emissions that way. I suppose sometimes we have to appreciate whatever victories are there.

Notley has also brought in the first legal protections for farmworkers in provincial history, is solidly pro-labour, and the re-election of her government is the only line of defense for LGBTQ people and FN people in Alberta.  Yes, it sucks that she's taken the line she has on pipelines, but here's the calculation progressives in Alberta need to make:  Is her stand on that issue, bad as it is, worth removing the only real protections workers and peoples in historically oppressed communities, most of whom ARE working-class, have against the return of life without rights and safety?  Since we know that Kenney will invoke the "Notwithstanding clause" everytime he passes bills that persecute all those his party disapprove of, the Charter is useless in Alberta and there are no other real remedies in the court system. 

Is there anything about Notley that could possibly be worth putting another Doug Ford in power?  And if he does get in, how do we know his ilk won't have another eighty-year majority?

josh
Pogo Pogo's picture

To Ken Burch/Aristotled discussion.  I think you take victories now over hypothetical tomorrows every day of the week.

WWWTT

josh wrote:

NDP down 5 in new poll.

https://researchco.ca/2019/04/02/alberta-campaign/

This poll is a good example of how polls are used to manipulate voters. 

The NDP was actually polling at lower numbers a week or two ago. So that headline is a straight out lie or twisted to support a negative NDP headline. 

Odd because other than the headline, it’s a very positive poll for Notley with huge support growth potential. Well enough for a strong majority!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It is a clear sign that the race is closing, and that UCP assumptions of an automatic landslide were always arrogant.

bekayne

WWWTT wrote:

josh wrote:

NDP down 5 in new poll.

https://researchco.ca/2019/04/02/alberta-campaign/

This poll is a good example of how polls are used to manipulate voters. 

The NDP was actually polling at lower numbers a week or two ago. So that headline is a straight out lie or twisted to support a negative NDP headline. 

Odd because other than the headline, it’s a very positive poll for Notley with huge support growth potential. Well enough for a strong majority!

If you're talking about "NDP down 5 in new poll", I think those were Josh's words.

WWWTT

Ok thanks bekayne. I checked the link out again and yes Josh did make an error there. However there is still a but and my error doesn’t change my opinion about this poll being used to manipulate. 

The headline of the poll says that the ucp is ahead. This is true, but clearly they are slipping, fast and large! Also several other key poll questions favour Notley. 

This is actually the worst poll I have seen for the ucp so far this cycle, and the best for Notley. 

The headline, if true to reality should read Notley surging or ucp falling. Or something along those lines of positivity for NDP, negative for ucp. 

But nope, no way! This pollster wants to continue a positive spin for ucp to influence the election!

josh

By down 5, I meant that they were trailing by 5, not that they were down 5 from a previous poll.

robbie_dee

Jason Kenney's UCP has has 19-point lead over Rachel Notley's NDP, poll suggests: UCP poised to win 'large majority,' according to Janet Brown Opinion Research (CBC News April 3, 2019)

Quote:

A new poll suggests the United Conservative Party has a commanding lead over the NDP province-wide — and in the key battleground of Calgary — with less than two weeks before the Alberta election.

Jason Kenney's UCP has the support of 53 per cent of voters across the province, compared with 34 per cent for the NDP, according to the data released Wednesday by Janet Brown Opinion Research.

The UCP also has a 21-point lead in Calgary, with 53 per cent support versus 32 per cent for the NDP, suggests the poll, which was commissioned by the Global Petroleum Show.

Brown says her data suggests to her that Albertans haven't really started to get engaged yet.

"I have been doing polling for 18 months since the UCP was first founded and I am getting essentially the same results as I got 18 months ago," she told the Calgary Eyeopener.

"So the way I interpret that is, these first two weeks of the campaign, either voters haven't been paying attention or those who have been paying attention haven't really heard things that have changed their minds."

The capital city appears to be the NDP's only stronghold, where 46 per cent of respondents support Notley's party and 39 per cent support the UCP.

In the rest of Alberta, the UCP has a gaping 43-point advantage over the NDP — 66 per cent to 23 per cent.

"If these numbers hold, the UCP would win a large majority in the range of 65 to 70 seats out of 87," Brown's poll concludes.

Province-wide, the Alberta Party is sitting at eight per cent, and the Liberals have the support of just four per cent of leaning and decided voters province-wide, the poll found.

The poll found 12 per cent of those sampled were undecided.

Brown expressed skepticism about some other polls that showed significant swings through the campaign period.

"I suspect that maybe they're over-sampling the engaged voters and not getting quite as wide a cross-section of Albertans in general," she said, noting that her poll was a truly random sample.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Is this polling agency allied with the UCP?  Something in the "how dare anyone question the Inevitable Holy Restoration"?

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

Is this polling agency allied with the UCP?  Something in the "how dare anyone question the Inevitable Holy Restoration"?

Paid for by "The Global Petroleum Show"

http://planetjanet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-02-NWPA-March-2019-Election-Poll-Report.pdf

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
Is this polling agency allied with the UCP?  Something in the "how dare anyone question the Inevitable Holy Restoration"?

Validates my prior contention that the worst case scenario for the NDP is that it will finish with its second-highest ever level of popular support this election.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
Is this polling agency allied with the UCP?  Something in the "how dare anyone question the Inevitable Holy Restoration"?

Validates my prior contention that the worst case scenario for the NDP is that it will finish with its second-highest ever level of popular support this election.

They might even get their highest support level and still lose government.

JKR

These Alberta numbers resemble the kind of numbers BC has had for decades where the NDP and a right of centre party are both in the 40’s with the right wing having an edge. From experience coming in a close second against a phoney FPTP majority government is not much fun especially if it happens for long stretches of time like 16 years.

robbie_dee

bekayne wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Is this polling agency allied with the UCP?  Something in the "how dare anyone question the Inevitable Holy Restoration"?

Paid for by "The Global Petroleum Show"

http://planetjanet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-02-NWPA-March-2019-Election-Poll-Report.pdf

Do you think her poll is less unbiased than the Unifor poll that came out a little while back? People in the petroleum industry do have an interest in unbiased polling data about what is likely to happen in the election so that they can plan accordingly.

I could see an issue with whether her ostensibly pure random sampling model is actually better than polls which, she suggests, may "over-sample the engaged voters," since "engaged voters" are probably also the voters who are more likely to actually show up on election day. But I don't see any other obvious issues with the methodology described in the linked document and she seems otherwise like a credible professional. Here's a link to her company's LinkedIn page: Janet Brown Opinion Research.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Jason Kenney’s Tax Cut Logic Failed Next Door. Here Are the Numbers

Should Albertans believe axing corporate taxes ‘pays for itself’? It cost BC billions.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2019/04/03/Jason-Kenney-Tax-Cut-Logic-Failed/

NorthReport

A generation of right-wing politicians ruins Preston Manning's dream of 'green capitalism'

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/alberta-diary/2019/04/generation-right-wing-politicians-ruins-preston-mannings-dream

NorthReport

 

The narrowness of the election result must be real as the right-wingers are getting exceedingly nervous.

Can Jason Kenney possibly lose the Alberta election?

Some reasons why the UCP can be uniquely braggadocious about their victory prospects — and how they could still manage to lose this thing anyway

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/can-jason-kenney-possibly-lose-this-election

WWWTT

Debate tomorrow. Notley needs to ko Kenney. She can potentially do it. 

Good political break from JWR Justin and SNC-LAVALIN 

NorthReport

More good news for the NDP

Calgary judge denies bid to halt UCP 'kamikaze' campaign probe during Alberta election

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kenney-callaway-ucp-oec-investigation-court-injunction-calgary-decision-1.5083536

voice of the damned

Nice turn of phrase from Notley...

“It’s clear Mr. Kenney didn’t bring the best of the PCs and Wildrose together, he brought the worst, he brought the sky palace to the shores of the lake of fire,” said Notley

http://tinyurl.com/yygzplp7

 

 

 

bekayne

Debate tonight.

NorthReport

Charles Adler from the chorus news network of all people hammered Kenney for not one single gay candidate last nite 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Charles Adler from the chorus news network of all people hammered Kenney for not one single gay candidate last nite 

Kenney probably reported potential gay UCP candidates to their parents.

quizzical

voice of the damned wrote:

Nice turn of phrase from Notley...

“It’s clear Mr. Kenney didn’t bring the best of the PCs and Wildrose together, he brought the worst, he brought the sky palace to the shores of the lake of fire,” said Notley

http://tinyurl.com/yygzplp7

 

 

 

she's brilliant. this hits on a few levels. takes us back to the Wild Rose loss to the PCs and hits the protestant evangelicals with the notion a seeming catholic evangelical may be leading them astray. 

voice of the damned

Quoting myself...

I agree it's a brilliant quip. but where do you see the agitation of Catholic/protestant tension in it? I think the main line being drawn is religious vs. secular politics, not Catholic vs. prot.

And just to clarify further, the full binary set up by the comment is between PC corruption(symbolized by Redford's Sky Palace), and Wildrose fundamentalism(symbolized by the Lake Of Fire).

(EDIT: I meant to make the above a separate comment, but accidently edited my original comment out of existence. Summary of both: the overall contrast is between PC corruption and Wildrose fundamentalism, now synthesized in the UCP.)

NorthReport

Has the debate started yet?

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Has the debate started yet?

4:30 PST

NorthReport

Thanks bekayne that is less than 1/2 hour from now.

I gather it will be carried live Canadawide.

NorthReport

Rachel - excellent opening remarks.

WWWTT

Someone please post a YouTube clip of the debate. When I get the chance. I’ll check it out tomorrow thanks

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