Alberta NDP Seat Predictions?

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Orangutan
Alberta NDP Seat Predictions?

Here are my seat predictions based on current polling, riding histories and local factors:

Rokossovsky

The upswing in NDP support provincially bodes well for the fortunes of the federal party, and indicates a volitile electorate looking for real change country wide.

Pretty interesting.

Orangutan

Northern Alberta

Outside of Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge, Northern Alberta offers some of the best opportunities for the Alberta NDP to pick up one or more rural seats.

Here are the seats possibly in play:

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater - ThreeHundredEight is predicting this seat just outside Edmonton will go to the NDP.  The NDP did win a couple rural seats outside of Edmonton in the 1986 and 1989 elections, including part of this riding in 1986.  

Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley - Grant Notley's old riding.  No incumbent.  Nostalgia and family history in the riding could be a factor.  

Fort McMurray-Conklin - With a PC incumbent and the Wildrose leader also running, could the popular NDP candidate come through the middle?  It is a long shot, but heres hoping.  Fort McMurray increasingly attracts people from all other parts of the country and world, so there is a chance they could buck wider provincial trends.  

Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo - Scandal plagued PC incumbent.  See comments above.  

Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills - No incumbent.  NDP did win part of this riding in 1986.  

 

 

Orangutan

CENTRAL ALBERTA:

Red Deer-North - ? - No incumbent.  Wildrose candidate lost the PC nomination.  If we have a chance in Red Deer South, maybe we have a shot here as well.  

Red Deer-South - ? - No incumbent.  For some reason ThreeHundredEight is predicting this seat going to the NDP.  

Stony Plain - ? - Rural Edmonton riding.  NDP previously won the seat in 1989.  

West Yellowhead - ? - NDP's best chance to gain a seat in rural Central Alberta.  Previously won by the NDP in 1989.  We've ran some some good campaigns here both provincially and federally.  Won 21% of the vote in the 2004 election.  

 

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville - ? - Alberta NDP won Vegreville in both 1986 and 1989.  

 

 

Orangutan

CALGARY:

The Alberta NDP has held seats in Calgary before (Calgary Forestlawn aka Calgary East, and Calgary Mountainview).   Interesting fact, a former Ontario NDP MPP is running for the Liberals in Calgary Currie.  

Calgary Buffalo - NDP GAIN - Seat of the former Alberta Liberal leader Kent Hehr.  No incumbent.  Riding that votes more Liberal than PC in Alberta.

Calgary East - NDP GAIN- Won by the NDP in 1986 and 1989.  PC incumbent Moe Amery was elected in 1993.  Time to turf him out momentum?  

Calgary-Fort - NDP GAIN -  Long-time former City Councillor Joe Ceci is running for the NDP.  No incumbent.  

Calgary-Klein - NDP GAIN - ThreeHundredEight is predicting the NDP will win this riding.  PC incumbent.

Calgary Mountainview - ? - Won by the NDP in 1986 and 1989.  Seat of the Liberal Leader (2008-2011, 2015-)  Long shot.  

Calgary-Varsity - NDP GAIN - No incumbent.  There is a prediction for the NDP to win this riding in this article: http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/ndp-looks-to-joe-ceci-for...

Orangutan

SOUTHERN ALBERTA:

Lethbridge-East - NDP GAIN - No incumbent.  Former seat of former Liberal turned PC MLA Bridget Pastoor (who started in a 2003 CBC political reality show segement called Political Animal).  

Lethbridge-West - NDP GAIN - 29% in the 2012 election.  Same NDP candidate.  

Aristotleded24

Rokossovsky wrote:
The upswing in NDP support provincially bodes well for the fortunes of the federal party, and indicates a volitile electorate looking for real change country wide.

Pretty interesting.

The Conservatives having to spend cash raised from Western Canada to hang onto their seats rather than being able to ship all their Western Canada bucks to other parts of the country will have amazing impacts on the federal political scene.

bekayne

Orangutan wrote:

CENTRAL ALBERTA:

Red Deer-North - ? - No incumbent.  Wildrose candidate lost the PC nomination.  If we have a chance in Red Deer South, maybe we have a shot here as well.  

Red Deer-South - ? - No incumbent.  For some reason ThreeHundredEight is predicting this seat going to the NDP.  

308 also has the Liberals winning Red Deer North. Clearly a goof on the Red Deer numbers.

bekayne

Orangutan wrote:

Fort McMurray-Conklin - With a PC incumbent and the Wildrose leader also running, could the popular NDP candidate come through the middle?  It is a long shot, but heres hoping.  Fort McMurray increasingly attracts people from all other parts of the country and world, so there is a chance they could buck wider provincial trends.  

Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo - Scandal plagued PC incumbent.  See comments above.  

There will be a lot of sympathy in his home riding for the Wildrose leader due to the recent death of his son, he'll crush the PCs. The PC john in Wood Buffalo will also be crushed by Wildrose.

bekayne

Orangutan wrote:

Calgary Mountainview - ? - Won by the NDP in 1986 and 1989.  Seat of the Liberal Leader (2008-2011, 2015-)  Long shot.  

Against Jim Prentice

PrairieDemocrat15

Orangutan wrote:

Northern Alberta

Outside of Edmonton, Calgary and Lethbridge, Northern Alberta offers some of the best opportunities for the Alberta NDP to pick up one or more rural seats.

Here are the seats possibly in play:

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater - ThreeHundredEight is predicting this seat just outside Edmonton will go to the NDP.  The NDP did win a couple rural seats outside of Edmonton in the 1986 and 1989 elections, including part of this riding in 1986.  

While the southern portion of the seat is "just outside Edmonton," it is certainly not a suburban riding. It runs north, encompassing the agrocultural town of Redwater, and even further north, the town of Athabasca, north of the province's agricultural region.

The son of Leo Piquette, NDP MLA for the area in the 1980s, is running. Best shot for an NDP MLA north of Edmonton, IMO.

Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley - Grant Notley's old riding.  No incumbent.  Nostalgia and family history in the riding could be a factor.  

Orangutan wrote:

Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills - No incumbent.  NDP did win part of this riding in 1986.  

Yes, in the 1980s, when farmers were not as conservative. The Wildrose won this riding in 2012, beating a PC cabinet minister. Its their only seat north of Ponoka. However, the young MLA, touted as a leadership candidate, is not running for re-election. Still, the NDP have no chance.

PrairieDemocrat15

Orangutan wrote:

EDMONTON

Can we change the moniker of "Redmonton" to something orange?  12 seats seem certain.  Possibly more.  

I always took the "Redmonton" quip to be a reference to the city's relative left-wingishness, not support for the Liberals. Red as in socialist. Anyways, here is this Edmontonian's take.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview - NDP HOLD

City councillor for the area, Tony Caterina, carrying the Tory banner, here.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Centre - ? ; Laurie Blakeman is a great MPP for the Alberta Liberals, though can she hold on in the heart of Edmonton with an NPD tidalwave in Edmonton?

The NDP have a strong, young candidate in this riding, and seem to be going pretty hard after it. TCTC, depends how things evolve. My guess? Liberal hold, NDP second. Also, if the Libs get trounced province-wide, look for Blakeman to cross the floor to either the NDP or Alberta Party, if they win a seat.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Glenora - NDP GAIN ; NDP is running a local school trustee here.  Won 25% of the vote here in the 2012 election.

 

Includes an "old-money" area, the area of the city where Edmonton's rich lived decades ago. Not as wealthy as places like Tuxedo in Winnipeg or St. Pauls in Toronto, but richer than most of inner Edmonton. There are lot of not-so-well-off areas in the riding, too, however.

Also, Hoffman was not just a trustee, but the chair of the Edmonton Public School board.

Incumbent is a senior canbinet minister, one of the few from Edmonton.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Gold Bar - NDP GAIN ; 29% in the 2012 election and the same candidate running again.

Seems to be the most obvious pick-up. Bonnie Doon, the western part of the riding, used to be part of Notley's Edmonton-Strathcona, and is as orange as anywhere in Edmonton. Also, the riding is entirely (as far as I know) within Duncan's federal riding.

However, it is represented by a popular MLA, David Dorward. Moreover, like many seats in Edmonton, the Wildrose still don't have a canadidate, eliminating vote-splitting on the right. Additionally, the Alberta Party has a strong candidate here, and the seat appears to one of the party's few targets outside Clagary-Elbow. City councillor (who doesn't represent the area, mind you) is friends with the candidate and was door-knocking for her.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Mill Creek - ? ; Suburban Edmonton seat.  10% in the 2012 election.  PC incumbent is running.   Possible NDP gain.

Speaker and former Liberal Gene Zwozdesky is the incumbent.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Mill Woods - NDP GAIN ; 14.5% in the 2012 election.  Previous held by the NDP in 1986 and 1988.  

Edmonton's Calgary-McCall. The closest thing the city has to a Scarborough: An out-of-the-way, low-income, ethnically diverse suburb. Federal Liberal candidate and popular left-leaning councillor (some Libs don't like him becuase he has supported NDPers) represents the area.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Riverview - NDP GAIN ; 21% in the 2012 election (Liberals got 23% and PCs got 40%).  Should pick up the Liberal vote.  

Left-leaning Liberal leader Kevin Taft represented the riding for a long time. Includes a dense area near the university, wealthy section on the north side of the river, and more modest area further north of that.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Rutherford - NDP GAIN ; While we only receieved 9% in 2012, there is no PC incumbent and the field of candidates from the other parties is weak.

Have to disagree with you, here. Area is a middle-class, suburban-y riding. Mayor Don Iveson represented the area as a councillor. Only way the NDP will take it is fi they maintain their ridiculously high numbers in Edmonton, and the Wildrose spit the right-vote.

It was represented by the former Health Minster, but he "decided not to run again" due to Prentice's purging of the Redfordites. Tories are now running a prominent "young, progressive, tech-savy, entrepreneurial, professional."

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Castle Downs - ? ; PC incumbent, NDP previously held part of the riding in the 1980s.  Possibly NDP gain.

Popular MLA and former prominent cabinet minster and deputy premier (now a backbencher due to de-Redfordization), Thomas Lukaczuk's riding. NDP-affiliated councillor Dave Loken represents a good part of the riding. However, a right-wing counicllor (Caterina) represents the much more left-leaning part of the city to the south (Kilkenny, Beverly, Clairview), so don't read too much into that. Low turnout in municipal elections and the incumbency factor produces strange results. Still, NDP have a good shot. The seat will almost certainly fall if the NDP get over 40% in Edmonton, and the Tories less than 25%.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Decore - NDP GAIN ; 20% in the 2012 election.  

Part of Loken's riding. Long-time Liberal seat represented by right-wing leader Laurence Decore (hence the name). He was a popular, moderate as mayor, though, which is probably why he was as successful as he was in the city in 1993. Area in middle to working class. Part of the Edmonton East riding NDP targeted in the 2011 federal election where they won 37% (NDP won the riding federally in 1988, area has also sent Liberals to Ottawa). Part of the riding is in the new federal seat of Edmonton-Griesbach, which is a heavy NDP target. Hundreds of NDPers at the nomination meeting in the summer, the candidate, Janis Irwin, has already been campaigning there for a while. The NDP are running a union man who worked on Loken's campaign, so the party may get some help from the area's councillor. Even though the NDP did okay here in 2012 (relativly speaking), coming third with 19%. No Wildrose canadiate yet, but there is a Liberal *and* Green running, so left vote-splits are possible. Still, it should fall to the NDP.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Ellerslie - NDP GAIN ; No incumbent, 16% in the 2012 election.  Strong candidate Rod Loyola.

Very new community with most of it south of the city's ring road. High desnity area with lots of townhouses, apartments, and condos. Lots of young families and cheap real estate. NDP-Liberal history, but the riding has grown so much. NDP did poor here in 2012, but history and democraphics say its ferile ground. NDp will need to poll high (as they are now) to win.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Manning - NDP GAIN ; No incumbent, 25% in the 2012 election.  

NDP came closer third in 2012. Like Decore, part of federal NDP east riding. Represented in council by Liberal Ed Gibbons. After Gold Bar and Glenora, the seat most likley to go NDP.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-McClung - ? ; PC incumbent in a riding that votes more Liberal than PC in Alberta (1993-2001, 2004-2008 Liberal).  The Liberals don't even have a candidate here yet. 

Liberal the same way Vancouver-Quadra or River Heights in Winnipeg is Liberal. Rich suburban and riverfront area. The riding's extreme north, just south of the Whitemud Highway, Collingwood, is poorer, dense (lots of townhouses and low-density apartments) is fertile NDP ground, though. It will really depend what the riding's traditonal Liberals do. Last election, they went PC (though 24% stayed Liberal). No Liberal (so far). Will they stick with the Tories, or vote NDP? The Alberta Party has a candiate. This is their kind of riding. One of the toughest nuts for the NDP to crack in the Capital.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Meadowlark - ? ; Former seat of the past Alberta Liberal Raj Sherman.  No incumbent.  NDP previously held parts of this riding in the 1980s.

Middle class area on the city's west end (though, I don't know this part of town well, I'll admit). Liberal history more than NDP. Karen Leibovici represented the area as a Liberal MLA and city councillor until her ill-fated run for mayor in 2013.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-South West -? ; Suburban Edmonton riding.  PC incumbent.  One of the hardest riding for the NDP to win in Edmonton.

Yup. Very suburban, very wealthy. Would be one of the few ridings to stay PC if current polling holds.

Orangutan wrote:

Edmonton-Whitemud - ? ; NDP won 22% in a recent by-election.  PC incumbent is still quite new, so incumbency factor barely in play here.

NDP ran a star candiate in oncologist Bob Turner and put all of their by-election resources (there were 4 by-elections) into the riding. Its one of the wealthiest parts of the city and the PC incumbent is former long-term, outspoken, and popular mayor Stephen Mandel, now Minister of Health. NDP should come second, but will not come close. Sorry, Dr. Bob.

Orangutan wrote:

Sherwood Park ? - Suburban Edmonton riding.  PC incumbent.   One of the hardest riding for the NDP to win in Edmonton.

One of the wealthiest communities in Alberta and therefor Canada. Suburban planned city (technically still an unincorperated hamelt within Strathcona County) with borders toching Edmonton but a highway and industrial area seperating it from the working class and NDP-friendly northeast end of the city. Also very socially conseravtive. Mega prodestant churches and lots of Mormons. I think Notley's plan to increase in-province oil upgrading and refining could play well here, as part of greater Edmonton's "Refinery Row," is in the city. The NDP still won't win, though. It was the only purely urban riding in the Edmonton area where the Wildrose cracked 30% of the vote in 2012. Former Strathcona County mayor (who lost re-election in 2013 in a close race) and Wildrose leadership candidate (she got 5%), Linda Onaschuk, will run for the Rosers in what should be a close race against the PCs.

Orangutan wrote:

St. Albert ? - PC incumbent, but the NDP previously held this riding in the 1980s.  St. Albert's is more urban than other ridings in Suburban Edmonton.  

Its on the opposte side of Edmonton as Sherwood Park, and also on the opposite side of the political spectrum (to an extent). Both cities are the same size and both very wealthy (St. Albert is an actual city, though). However, St. Albert has elected an NDP and several Liberal MLAs (Sherwood Park elected a Liberal once in the 1993, super-tight election) and has a progresive and liberal mayor. Rabble contibutor and grade-A blogger David Climenhaga lives there and has written about the NDP's prospects in the riding: http://albertapolitics.ca/2015/03/will-it-take-a-miracle-to-elect-new-de...

I have no idea if commuter towns like St. Albert are considered part of Edmonton by pollsters. If they are, and if the polls are accurate, the NDP could have a shot. No Liberal canadiate yet in the quasi-Liberal town, but there is an Alberta Party one, but also a Wildroser, so we got that going for us. St. Albert (named after Albert Lacombe) is historically a Francophone community, I don;t know how much it is now. Hoewever, its French hertiage may help explain the lingering strength of the Liberal Party in the city. As it happens, the NDP candidate, Marie Renaud, is a Quebec migrant. I still don't think they will win here, even if the party cleans up in Edmonton-proper.

voice of the damned

That's correct. The nickname was attached after the NDP won 12 seats in the Edmonton area in '86. The Liberals only won two.

voice of the damned

QUOTE:I always took the "Redmonton" quip to be a reference to the city's relative left-wingishness, not support for the Liberals. Red as in socialist. Anyways, here is this Edmontonian's take.NEXT...

KenS

PC    47

NDP  20

WR   14

LIB    6

 

... drawn out of thin air ....

Stockholm

Fyi, in the analysis above there are a lot of references ridings with "no wild rose candidate to split the vote" well Wildrose has been picking candidates like crazy and as of yesterday had candidates in all but 10 ridings out of 87... Parties have until this Friday to get candidates on the ballot and I'm quite certain Wildrose will field a full slate...the fact that 5 polls in a row have them in first place across Alberta will mean no shortage of people wanting to jump on that bandwagon...the Liberals are a different story. They are still missing 50 candidates with only 5 days to go and they are in total disarray...it's quite likely they will run less than a full slate of candidates.

voice of the damned

Stockholm wrote:

There is zero chance of the Alberta getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.

You mean "the Alberta Liberal Party", I assume.

Stockholm

There is zero chance of the Alberta Liberals getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.

Stockholm

fixed

Winston

Stockholm wrote:

There is zero chance of the Alberta Liberals getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.

David Swann and Laurie Blakeman are likely the only two Liberals to remain standing (and even their survival is in doubt).

jjuares

Winston wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

There is zero chance of the Alberta Liberals getting more than two seats (if that) they are on life support with no money, an interim leader and incumbents quitting in three out of the five ridings they currently hold.

David Swann and Laurie Blakeman are likely the only two Liberals to remain standing (and even their survival is in doubt).


Yes, they have something like 150 000 to run their provincial campaign. Even their poll numbers aren't realistic. If they don't have candidates in the riidings how can Liberals even vote for their party?

Orangutan

EDMONTON

Can we change the moniker of "Redmonton" to something orange?  12 seats seem certain.  Possibly more.  

Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview - NDP HOLD

Edmonton-Calder - NDP HOLD

Edmonton-Centre - ? ; Laurie Blakeman is a great MPP for the Alberta Liberals, though can she hold on in the heart of Edmonton with an NPD tidalwave in Edmonton?

Edmonton-Glenora - NDP GAIN ; NDP is running a local school trustee here.  Won 25% of the vote here in the 2012 election.  

Edmonton-Gold Bar - NDP GAIN ; 29% in the 2012 election and the same candidate running again.

Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood - NDP HOLD

Edmonton-Mill Creek - ? ; Suburban Edmonton seat.  10% in the 2012 election.  PC incumbent is running.   Possible NDP gain.

Edmonton-Mill Woods - NDP GAIN ; 14.5% in the 2012 election.  Previous held by the NDP in 1986 and 1988.  

Edmonton-Riverview - NDP GAIN ; 21% in the 2012 election (Liberals got 23% and PCs got 40%).  Should pick up the Liberal vote.  

Edmonton-Rutherford - NDP GAIN ; While we only receieved 9% in 2012, there is no PC incumbent and the field of candidates from the other parties is weak.

Edmonton-Strathcona - NDP HOLD

 

Edmonton-Castle Downs - ? ; PC incumbent, NDP previously held part of the riding in the 1980s.  Possibly NDP gain.

Edmonton-Decore - NDP GAIN ; 20% in the 2012 election.  

Edmonton-Ellerslie - NDP GAIN ; No incumbent, 16% in the 2012 election.  Strong candidate Rod Loyola.  

Edmonton-Manning - NDP GAIN ; No incumbent, 25% in the 2012 election.  

Edmonton-McClung - ? ; PC incumbent in a riding that votes more Liberal than PC in Alberta (1993-2001, 2004-2008 Liberal).  The Liberals don't even have a candidate here yet. 

Edmonton-Meadowlark - ? ; Former seat of the past Alberta Liberal Raj Sherman.  No incumbent.  NDP previously held parts of this riding in the 1980s.  

Edmonton-South West - ? ; Suburban Edmonton riding.  PC incumbent.  One of the hardest riding for the NDP to win in Edmonton.  

Edmonton-Whitemud - ? ; NDP won 22% in a recent by-election.  PC incumbent is the former Mayor of Edmonton.

Sherwood Park ? - Suburban Edmonton riding.  PC incumbent.   One of the hardest riding for the NDP to win in Edmonton.  

St. Albert ? - PC incumbent, but the NDP previously held this riding in the 1980s.  St. Albert's is more urban than other ridings in Suburban Edmonton.  

 

 

 

 

Orangutan

Prediction:

PC - 34

Wildrose - 27

NDP - 24

Liberal - 2

Brachina

 With the NDP tied with Wild Rose (while I don't agree with they're politics they seriously have the coolest fucking name for a party in politics) in Calgary what would people start calling Calgary, redgary?

Orangutan

The new NDP candidate in Medicine Hat is the former city commissioner.  Looks like another competitive race.  

adma

Orangutan wrote:

The new NDP candidate in Medicine Hat is the former city commissioner.  Looks like another competitive race.  

Almost sounds as if the looming credible-optionness of the party is raising the standard for last-minute emergency substitutions...

NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Brachina wrote:

 With the NDP tied with Wild Rose (while I don't agree with they're politics they seriously have the coolest fucking name for a party in politics) in Calgary what would people start calling Calgary, redgary?

Calgarange?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Brachina wrote:

 With the NDP tied with Wild Rose (while I don't agree with they're politics they seriously have the coolest fucking name for a party in politics) in Calgary what would people start calling Calgary, redgary?

Calgarange?

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Looks like the Liberals are in serious freefall to the point where it might be better to put them into the "other" category now.

If a certain "pollster" is to be believed, "Other" would then be at over 23%

NorthReport

This is a seat projection thread and when you are discussing a party winning 2 or 3 seats why even bother? If being in Official Opposition means dick, then who could care less about these minor parties? 

adma

NorthReport wrote:

This is a seat projection thread and when you are discussing a party winning 2 or 3 seats why even bother? If being in Official Opposition means dick, then who could care less about these minor parties? 

FYI the NDP would have failed by that measure over the past quarter century, remember.

Winston

NorthReport wrote:

Looks like the Liberals are in serious freefall to the point where it might be better to put them into the "other" category now.

Is there any safe seat for the Liberals now?

No, there isn't.

 

I'm guessing David Swann has enough personal popularity to hang on to his seat, particularly given the competitive vote split in Calgary, but I doubt Laurie Blakeman will be able to hang on in Edmonton Centre. 

My prediction today:

1 Lib

1 AB Party

24 NDP {Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater, 2 in Lethbridge 3 in Calgary, 18 in  dmonton) 

26 PC (Mostly in Calgary, smattering of incumbents in central, northern AB and Edmonton)

35 WR (Sweep rural south, majority of rural north and central, rest in Calgary)

Do I think this will hold out? No.

Watch for the PCs to come back with a vengeance, Wildrose to fall back, NDP support to plateau. I still think the most likely outcome is a PC majority with a strong NDP Opposition. But, who knows? This is a truly strange election by AB standards.

 

josh
Brachina

46 NDP

10 PC

31 Wildrose

0 Liberals

0 Alberta Party

Misfit Misfit's picture

Not to be a pessimist, but what if the PCs and NDP split the vote and the WR came up the middle with a huge majority? We're talking about Alberta BTW.

NorthReport
bekayne

josh wrote:

308:

WR 41

NDP 34

PC 10

Lib  2

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html?spref=tw

In every single seat the NDP wins outside of Edmonton, Grenier has the Wildrose vote falling. Is that credible?

sherpa-finn

Just to be clear, Misfit - Wildrose does not "come up the middle" between the PCs and NDP, - it "outflanks" the PCs.

Aristotleded24

Misfit wrote:
Not to be a pessimist, but what if the PCs and NDP split the vote and the WR came up the middle with a huge majority? We're talking about Alberta BTW.

The NDP is currently polling too far ahead in Edmonton and Notley is too popular there for the NDP not to pick up a large number of seats. And in the (unlikely) event of a massive Wildrose majority, the NDP would almost certainly form the Official Opposition, which gives the NDP the right of the first response to the government, and they can use that in a forceful way to highlight the mis-steps the Wildrose makes. I think about what happened in Manitoba, where Gary Filmon was just as right-wing as anyone else. As that government faced an NDP opposition, not only was the NDP able to make Filmon wear his mis-steps, but the NDP made some progress towards reversing the damage Filmon did.

adma

Aristotleded24 wrote:
I think about what happened in Manitoba, where Gary Filmon was just as right-wing as anyone else.

I thought that the Filmon Tories were considered moderate as such things go, i.e. distinctly in the "PC" camp, rather than in the "Wildrose/Reform" camp...

NorthReport

Looks like the Liberals are in serious freefall to the point where it might be better to put them into the "other" category now.

Are there any safe seats for the Liberals now?

Orangutan

While an NDP government in Alberta might be sweet, having four years of Wildrose might sour Albertans, esp. younger ones, on failed the failed right-wing policies.  An NDP in Official Opposition might bode well for them to become the next government.  

I think the NDP is poised to make major break throughs in Calgary, Lethbridge, Northern and Central Alberta.  The conditions of this election are similar to those of the 1990 Ontario election.  In a three way spilt, the NDP might come up the middle in many races.  

NorthReport
Sean in Ottawa

This looks like a perfect storm for the NDP. I am normally cautious but I would say at this point it looks to me like the NDP is more likely to win.

Part of the reason I think this is the positions of the parties. You can expect last minute shifts to stop a party but in this case they are unlikely to amount to much. This is not a simple case of the NDP challenging the PCs in the Polls -- in that case we could see a swing to block the NDP from those on the right. Instead what we see is Wild Rose and the NDP facing off. Some PCs may opt to support the WR to stop the NDP but they may well be offset by other PC supporters moving to the NDP to stop WR. The PC party sitting in third makes them an unlikely candidate for a move to stop either the NDP or WR. The polling is so confusing at the moment there is not much likelihood of any backlash taking hold.

The most popular leader and winner of the debate was Notley. The vote against her is confused, demoralized and fragmented. This is what one could call the perfect winning conditions for the NDP.

Interestingly, a poll looked at how people thought their neighbours were intending to vote vs their own intentions. More were intending to vote NDP but thought their neighbours were not.

A swing away from the NDP is possible but there is no evidence of one yet. In fact it still looks like there is more support for the NDP than a realization that they actually could win.

The NDP has a real opportunity here and might win.

Policywonk

Given the NDP will rack up huge majorities in Edmonton, they would need favourable vote splits to win many seats elsewhere. Some were suggesting that they had plateaued, but the Forum poll suggests that isn't so and that they are still surging. I think the Conservative's internal polling shows the same as the Forum poll which is why Prentice was ignoring Swann and Jean. I agree that the opportunity is there and a win is possible. Polling in the mid-twenties outside of the major cities may result in some unexpected wins that could put Rachel into a majority, rather than a plurality or strong second. I don't think the Conservative rump would support an NDP minority and it is even less likely the Wild Rose would. The Liberals and other parties are unlikely to pick up more than one or two seats.

Basement Dweller

http://www.threehundredeight.com is updated, projecting an NDP minority with 38 seats.

Northern PoV

A blast from the past...

Alberta's election polls miss the mark (post 2012 Alberta election headline on CBC)

polls are for dogs

NorthReport

 

NDP - 38 seats

Wildrose - 34 seats

PC - 12 seats

Lib - 3 seats

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html

 

 

 

Basement Dweller

The poilsters are clearly having a problem with Calgary.

6 new riding polls

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-6-riding...

robbie_dee

My fearless prediction:

NDP 42

PC 23

WR 20

LIB 01

AP 01

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