Alberta NDP Seat Predictions?

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bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

One too many! 

You can provide the tar and feathers then.

David Young

NDP -  36

Wildrose - 28

P.C. - 21

Liberal - 1

Alberta Party - 1

 

NorthReport

308 had the NDP winning 52 seats, WR - 22 seats, PC - 11 seats, Libs - 2 seats,  before today's Forum poll showing increased NDP support. 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html

Howard

PC 49

NDP 25

WR 12

LIB 1

Subject to change on Monday night

NorthReport

Well either the NDP is going to do much better than that or the polling industry is fucked for good in Canada! Laughing

NorthReport

Interesting

Polls continue to show the Alberta NDP gaining support in the election, and if rally turnout is any indicator, the polls are accurate.

Organizers say about 1300 people turned out to see leader Rachel Notley speak today, and Notley described it as the biggest rally she’s seen in our city.

----

On Friday, five Edmonton business leaders held a news conference to ridicule the NDP’s economic platform. They urged voters to back Prentice and the PCs to stay in government.

All five are donors to the PC party and some have received millions of dollars in government contracts.

 

 

http://www.630ched.com/2015/05/03/notley-speaks-at-rally-in-edmonton/

 

NorthReport

There has not been one indication yet that the NDP are losing momentum.

Today 2 days from the election a poll was released showing the NDP increasing its support to 42%, up 4%.

And the previous pollster is showing 44% support for the NDP.

And tonite we hear that Natley has held the biggest NDP rally earlier today that she has ever attended for the NDP in Alberta.

Could the NDP be increasing their seat count?

GregbythePond

After careful analysis ...

NDP - 57

Wildrose - 22

P.C. - 8

Liberal - nope

Alberta Party - nope

And yes, they will make history. They already have.

NorthReport

You might be right on the money Greg!

  Retweet29  Favorite19 MoreFrank Graves @VoiceOfFranky · 3h3 hours ago

We have been updating polling in Alberta this weekend. I would say the fat lady is singing/ NDP at 43/WRP 26/PC 22 and so on...#Abvote

 78 retweets31 favorites Reply Retweet78 Favorite31MoreFrank Graves @VoiceOfFranky · 3h3 hours ago

Frank Graves retweeted Scott Tribe

Roll up to this morning NDP43/WRP26/PC22. At 21pts down that is going to be some miracle comeback

Frank Graves added,

 

jerrym

Centrist wrote:

Yet this same individual residing in this riding has just advised me that Lib candidate Donna Wilson is winning the lawn sign race there by quite a large margin. Can anyone else on the ground there corroborate same?

Because if that is the case something does not make any sense here. At all. With such conflicting evidence.

I don't live in Alberta but I did see one picture with one NDP sign, many more Wilson and other lawn-size signs, but it looked liked a large area of public property as it was all grass with no houses in view, which could simply be the result of a few Liberal supporters planting a large number of signs rather than being indicative of the level of support by residents.

pebbles

NorthReport wrote:

He's a Liberal.  Laughing

The desperation amongst Liberals to try and prevent an an NDP government in Alberta is hilarious but understandable as they well know the possible federal consequences.

Just like the press fronts for the Liberals and Conservatives, 99 per cent of all the political websites and blogs in Canada are just fronting for the Liberals and and the Conservatives as well.

I think the only federal implication is that it puts the idea of "Change" in the air, in a big way.

That could work to the LPC's benefit.

NorthReport

Not if the Alberta Liberals get wiped out.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

David Young wrote:

NDP -  36

Wildrose - 28

P.C. - 21

Liberal - 1

Alberta Party - 1

 

Which riding do you think will actuall go Alberta Party?  Have they ever even come close to winning a seat?

Sean in Ottawa

I have to update my seat projections as well --

Looks like the right wing backlash has created its own backlash.

NDP 59

WR 19

PC 9

L 0

AB 0

David Young

Thanks for answering the question for me, bagkitty!

 

Glenl

My prediction: Mr Prentice will be carpooling with Ms Smith after Tuesday. They should enjoy their time together.

nicky

The Alberta party leader ran a strong second in the by-election in Elbow a few months back.

Those of you around Toronto may be interested in an NDP sponsored election watching party.

The Disgraceland Bar, Bloor St West at Ossington.

Polls close at 10 pm Toronto time.

josh

Too Close to Call:

 

NDP 53

WR 19

PC 12

Lib 3

http://t.co/6xxbPE4vWK

 

josh
bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

David Young wrote:

NDP -  36

Wildrose - 28

P.C. - 21

Liberal - 1

Alberta Party - 1

 

Which riding do you think will actuall go Alberta Party?  Have they ever even come close to winning a seat?

They (Alberta Party) are only really a factor in one riding Calgary Elbow (formerly held by ex-Premier Alison Redford, currently held by Dirks, the "education" minister) - the local polling inidicates Dirks and AP leader Glen Clark are literally neck and neck.

ETA: and no, they have never come even remotely close to winning a seat before.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

I hopes this makes the Liberal trolls stop whining that a rise in NDP support means a Conservative government.

 

Policywonk

josh wrote:

308:

NDP 53

WR 24

PC 8

Libs 1

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html?spref=tw

 

Actually they had Other 1, which I assume is the Alberta Party. 

Policywonk

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html

They seem to have included the Ekos poll.

NDP 54

WR 24

 PC  7

Lib  1

Other  1 Presumably the Alberta Party

 

NorthReport

The NDP is trending up - up 2% between Apr 29 to May 3 according to EKOS.

Is the NDP polling even higher now?

What are your voter percentage forecasts for the Alberta election?

EKOS

Party / Apr 29 / May 3

NDP / 42% / 44% / 

WR / 21% / 24%

PC / 23% / 23%

 

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

I see that 308 is now calling Calgary Mountain View for the NDP - beating out interim Liberal leader Dr. Swann. I find this slightly sad, on a personal level at least. Dr. Swann may have had a wooden performance at the debate, but his personal integrity and international contributions were never in question - indeed, before he decided to run for the Liberals he was being aggressively wooed to run under the NDP banner. On the other hand, Mountain View has for years had the tightest and best organized NDP constituency association in the city, and I will be glad to see their years of ongoing work rewarded. Really mixed feelings about this one.

NorthReport

Do you know whiich riding Harper lives in and how it is leaning?

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Do you know whiich riding Harper lives in and how it is leaning?

I don't know what provincial constituency he lives in but his federal district is Calgary-Southwest. That would take in Calgary-Glenmore, Calgary- Lougheed, Calgary-Shaw, Calgary Fish-Creek and Calgary-Acadia.  

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Do you know whiich riding Harper lives in and how it is leaning?

Well his actual address is of course hidden for security reasons... but it has been mentioned (in news reports of a grow op take down in 2010) that his Calgary residence is in the district of Tuscany located in the northwest of the city (his seat in Parliament is Calgary South West). The provincial constituency that district falls in is Calgary North West - one of the few that 308 is predicting will still go Tory blue (58% probability according to 308 - their breakdown is PC 38.2% WR 33.8% ALP 4.4% NDP 28.5%). Hope that is the info you were looking for NR.

nicky

Lib   0

AP   1

PC   3

WR 15

NDP 68

NorthReport

Tks bagkitty & policywonk.

NorthReport

308

NDP - 54

WR - 25

PC - 7

Oth - 1

Lib - 0

JKR

NDP - 66

WR - 18

PC - 3

Lib - 0

Oth- 0

nicky

Pollster Derek Leebosh has been tweeting that there is a possibility the PCs may not elect a single MLA.

Given that the Liberals also stand to be completely eradicated I have tried to think of any single Canadian election where both old line parties failed to elect anyone.

Can anyone think of one? Maybe BC in the 80s?

NorthReport

308

NDP - 55 seats

WR - 25 seats

PC - 6 seats

Lib - 0 seats

Other - 1 seat

Total  - 87 seats

Required for majority - 44 seats

 

jerrym

nicky wrote:
Pollster Derek Leebosh has been tweeting that there is a possibility the PCs may not elect a single MLA. Given that the Liberals also stand to be completely eradicated I have tried to think of any single Canadian election where both old line parties failed to elect anyone. Can anyone think of one? Maybe BC in the 80s?

 

This would not be good longterm for the NDP. It would leave a single rightwing opponent, and the most right-wing at that, of the NDP. While the right may unite anyway as the Libs and Cons did in BC in the 1940s and more or less ever since in Socred and Liberal configurations, making it harder for the NDP to win. However, there is a better chance that they won't unite if each has some elected representatives. 

Pierre C yr

Im not so sure as a united right wing would also propel a united left which seems to have coalesced in Alberta. Course then you're back with a bipartisan system but thats inevitable with a bad system like ours. If we want a healthy pluralist system we will put in PR. If not then we may have to live with a 2 party system. Just this time one that has a real left wing party. At least in Alberta.

NorthReport

We don't want the PCs completely wiped out or we may then be looking at a minority government.

nittanylionstorm07

I've got 

NDP  61

Wildrose  22 

PC  2 

Liberals  1 

Alberta  1 

NorthReport
quizzical

i will believe this when i see it. even though grande prairie was showing orange last week when i left, there were many who weren't voting at all or for prentice because the pc's support the farmer.

bekayne

NDP-51

Wildrose-28

PC-7

Someone else-1

 

NorthReport

Kewl!

 

josh

Looks like TCTC did the best. But 308 wasn't bad.

lagatta

Do we change the title of this thread, or start a new one? Whatever happens, we have to agree that this is spectacular news.

JohnInAlberta JohnInAlberta's picture

I cannot describe how thrilled I am at Ms. Notley's win! Laughing I work in the resource industry, I can say with absolute certainty that I was the only NDP voter at my firm and I'm absolutely wearing my "Notley Crue" shirt to the office today.  You bet I'm rubbing it in!

Premier-elect Notley's speech was the icing on the cake; her reference to Prentice's jackass math comment was priceless, and the rest of her victory lap was inspirational.  

Today I'm proud to be an Albertan!

swallow swallow's picture

[img]https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrinknp_400_400/p/8/005/09c/376/0f01605...

Shaye Anderson, the new MLA for Leduc. Is this the coolest facal hair in Canadian politics?

NorthReport

Fort McMurray went Wildrose.

Do all those oil workers earning their big bucks not realize that if it were not for unions none of that would be happening. The least they could of done was vote NDP  What's it gonna take to get their votes? Never underestimate the stupidity of the working man!  Frown

adma

Actually, I think it's more a "Brian Jean" regional vote than anything--otherwise, yes, Fort Mac *would* likely have gone with the NDP flow...

Howard

adma wrote:

Actually, I think it's more a "Brian Jean" regional vote than anything--otherwise, yes, Fort Mac *would* likely have gone with the NDP flow...

Yep

NorthReport

What is the final seat count now?

 

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