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New poll from Angus Reid
PC: 44
Wildrose: 22
Lib: 16
NDP: 13
Alberta Party: 2
It's a little disapointing for the NDP to be in fourth after recent polls showing it at 16% and in second place. However, 13% is still a lot better than the 8.5% we got in 2008.
An interesting side note for those who preach merger/co-operation between the Liberals and the NDP. A poll on page five of the link above shows party retention of vote from 2008. The Liberals have a big problem in that only 53% of the people who claim to have voted Liberal in the last election are still with them. Does the NDP win all of those other votes? Most of them? Here is how the 2008 Liberalvote breaks down today:
Lib: 56%
PC: 20%
NDP: 10%
Wildrose: 9%
Alberta: 4%
For every vote the NDP picks up from the Liberals, the PCs pick up two and the Wildrose also pick up one. Hardly an argument for joining forces to take on the Tories. If the Liberals held on to 100% of their support from the last election, this poll would look something like this:
PC: 39
Lib: 26
Wildrose: 20
NDP 11
Question for Lou, Babblers: how does the Alberta NDP take support from the PCs?
Given the low voter turnouts, I'd rather want to know how do you get more people to the ballot box?
Most of the Conservative voters I know will stay that way until they die; their mind-set is a fixed state of 'things may not get better, but if we don't change, thing won't get worse....so we'll keep voting the way we always have, no matter what!!!'.
Howard, if anyone in the NDP had the answer to that question, I doubt they would be limited to two MLAs.
Lou might not have the answer to that question, but I do:
You get more (progressive) voters to the ballot box by giving them real hope for the first time in 40 years that their vote will actually count for something by supporting the idea that progressive voices (not only NDPers, but all centre-leftists in the Liberal, Alberta, and possibly the Evergreen parties) should work together strategically in winnable constituencies, in the belief that they can win more seats if only they'd stop competing with each other in progressive-split ridings. This idea was put forth by Dr. Swann (former leader of the Liberals), and put into policy by its Liberal members at the previous-to-last convention, but was scoffed and sneered at, reviled, ridiculed, and totally rebuffed by the NDP and the media (the latter, real proof to me that it could actually work). Even Ted Morton, current energy minister mentioned he was afraid of a united left winning against the split Conservatives and Wildrose, which, of course, ironically, is what the formerly united Conservatives have always done to the NDP and Liberals.
Even if the NDP does manage to gain a couple more seats in the next election by continuing with this stubborn, go-it-alone current strategy, we'll only get the same old weakling, fractured (2, 3, or now 4) parties losing in most ridings. What folly, in this province. Lou's response is always the same old, "We can't know that progressive voters will vote for each other's party." Well, Lou, I guess you'll never know if you don't try it.
And outwest's response is alwys the same - to ignore all the evidence.
Look at the poll above. The Liberals are way down - for every vote they lose to the NDP, they lose two to the PCs and one to Wildrose.
The question was how do we get Tory votes to switch, not how do we give them even more support.
Likewise, the point you ignore in all of this, Lou, is that the majority of voters, who always feel impelled to vote for winners, gravitate to the nearest party that looks as though it "could" win, which is why many Conservatives temporarily shifted to the Wildrose (and even the Alberta party) early on when the press was on WR's side during the royalty debate. Ergo, if progressives/centrists/leftists worked together and showed strength in some kind of strategic unity pact, you can be assured many soft Conservatives would, indeed, vote for them, as guided by their leaders and parties. Right now, ALL the progressive parties, unfortunately, look like a joke to the majority voting public, whom, in this province, don't like losers.
A DRP (Alberta Democratic Renewal Project - drproject.ca) poll taken last November supports the fact that even soft Conservative voters would vote for a progressive coalition of sorts: http://drproject.ca/files/DRPPOLL2010.pdf , but I guess you don't want to believe it, you will never consider its merits and possibilities.
I'm just happy my Ted Morton prediction turned out to be so wrong!
I was sure the PC's would go more Conservative to fend off the growth of the WRA, seems they went more Progressive which is OK by me, especially since the nicest thing I can say about Redford is that she is not one of the old guard PC inner circle types who have been doing a stellar job mismanaging this province for almost as long as I have been alive.
I think the bigger challenge is going to be trying to get people to take a chance on anything other than the status quo. I can see it now, "oh in these uncertain economic times why rock the boat? Besides, the PC's have a new leader and THIS TIME FOR SURE they will start to do a better job etc etc etc".
Mind you I don't seem to be that accurate at these political predictions but I sadly don't see any major change on Alberta's political landscape anytime soon
New poll from Environics:
PC: 51
Wildrose: 19
NDP: 14
Lib: 13
Liberal MLA crosses floor to join the Tories
Premier Alison Redford welcomed Bridget Pastoor at the news conference, taking place now in Edmonton. Pastoor said, when she told Liberal caucus she was leaving, she "almost threw up" because she was so nervous.
Liberal/Tory...
Same old story.
Future bleak for Alberta Liberalsl among progressive parties, only the NDP has momentum.
Here are the nomination numbers for the three major opposition parties, which any sensible Alberta Liberal supporter must find deeply troubling:
New Democratic Party: 60
Wildrose Alliance: 58
Alberta Liberals: 19
The position of Executive Director of the Alberta Liberal Party has been vacant for a couple of months now, with an election around the corner - I can't fathom how they are coping without someone in this position.
Liberal MLA crosses floor to join the Tories
Premier Alison Redford welcomed Bridget Pastoor at the news conference, taking place now in Edmonton. Pastoor said, when she told Liberal caucus she was leaving, she "almost threw up" because she was so nervous.
Bridget Pastoor appeared to me like a political opportunist when she appeared on the CBC's Disclosure "Political Animal" realty TV segement (while she was still a Lethbridge City Councilor). She appeared alongside future NDP candidate Malcolm Azania (who came across as genuine and passionate).
Just goes to show you what kind of people each party attracts. Liberal/Tory = Political opportunitists, careerists. NDP = Genuine, passionate, principled, caring people.
Latest poll from the National Post, today's date:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/01/23/albertas-wildrose-alliance-poise...
PC's 38 %
WRA 29 % Strangely enough, no mention of how the other parties are doing, would it kill them to report on anybody other than the PC's and Wild Rose? WTF? Anyways, they go on with some seat projections: PC's with 57, WRA with 17, and 13 to divvy up between the Liberals, NDP and Alberta Party. "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose." (editted to clean up the formatting a bit, hope it worked)http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2012/01/second-forum-poll-s...
Climenhaga's take, with the information you're looking for.
I sent an email to the President of Forum Research and he was good enough to send me the numbers:
PC: 38 (no change)
Wildrose: 29 (+6)
Lib: 14 (+2)
NDP: 13 (no change)
AP: 3 (-3)
Other: 4 (-5)
Seat projection:
PC: 57
Wildrose: 17
NDP: 5
Lib: 4
Worth noting that the seat projection numbers add up to 83, there are now 87 seats up for grabs.
The numbers show a four way dog fight emerging in Edmonton:
PC: 33
NDP: 22
Lib: 19
Wildrose: 18
AP: 3
Other: 4
How about Calgary? I would think that seats currently held by the Liberals where the incumbent is not running again would be prime low-hanging fruit for the NDP.
How about Calgary? I would think that seats currently held by the Liberals where the incumbent is not running again would be prime low-hanging fruit for the NDP.
The NDP got under 5% in those ridings
How about Calgary? I would think that seats currently held by the Liberals where the incumbent is not running again would be prime low-hanging fruit for the NDP.
The NDP got under 5% in those ridings
My thinking is that a great deal of that is the result of the "not PC" vote, so with those Liberal incumbents gone, plus the fact that urban areas tend to lean more to the left, might mean the NDP could capitalize on that vote.
Another day, another poll:
Leger Marketing
PC: 53
Wildrose: 16
NDP: 13
Liberal: 11
AP: 2
Liberals digging a deep hole: Poll
The only bounce the Liberals seem to have enjoyed from the selection of Raj Sherman as party leader is of the dead cat variety.
New Democrats moving toward political centre as election looms
EDMONTON - New Democrat Leader Brian Mason says his party will take a more moderate line in the coming election to stake out turf as the “centre-left alternative” while the provincial Liberals sink in the polls.
On the oilsands, for instance, Mason said he has no time for those who want to phase out the massive mines in Alberta’s northeast.
“To say we want to shut down the oilsands, it’s like saying we want to shut down the auto industry in Ontario,” said Mason, adding both are undesirable and unrealistic.
Mason told The Journal editorial board his party has recently been critical of two proposed pipelines, Keystone to the southern U.S. and Gateway to the Pacific coast, both key projects for oilsand operators looking for new markets.
But if those pipelines go ahead, the Alberta economy will change dramatically with value-added upgrading jobs shipped out of the province to the U.S. Gulf Coast and economic opportunities will be lost.
“If we build these pipelines, it will set the direction of the economy for 20 years,” he said. “We will be stressing a value-added strategy.”
Seat projections by 308.com
(with the usual provisios about their methodology being quite suspect)
Based on Forum Poll:
PC: 65
Wildrose: 17
NDP: 4
Liberal: 1
Alberta: 0
Based on Leger Poll:
PC: 81
NDP: 4
Wildrose: 2
Liberal: 0
Alberta: 0
What effect does the traditional low voter turnout play? Might Wildrose be underestimated in these polls because of that?
They might be. I'm not sure which, if any, pollsters prompt for likely voters. But it might be behind the dramatic difference between these two polls.
Lou (or anyone!), is there a web-site where all of the candidates nominated so far are listed?
I'm curious to find out how close the parties are to filling their slates of candidates.
Thanks.
Daveberta has a pretty complete list here.
Thanks Lou!
(If you're watching the Halifax debate on Sunday, you might spot me in the crowd!!!)
I just hope I can get there early enough to get a seat.
How does the NDP win votes from the PC party provincially? Simple, big, bold, programs... no more of the reformist tinkering around the edges...
"We're going to make university tuition free, and here's how we pay for it."
"We're going to index the minimum wage to a quarter of per-hour-worked-GDP, because nobody employable is doing a half-assed, half-assed job."
"We're going to introduce single-payer pharmacare and dentalcare because they save money in the long run."
"We're going to have progressive taxes, because flat taxes make no sense, even Adam Smith said so."
"We're going to shut down any company that closes a location in bad faith rather than negotiate because the workers there voted for a union, that goes for you walmart."
"We're gonna have inclusive rights legislation, and treatment on demand, since it's cheaper than a waiting list to see overqualified gatekeepers, no matter how badly it offends Michele Landsberg or [insert leftist culture-war figure here] to recognize that trans people are who they say they are, just like the rest of us."
(Admittedly, that last piece of advice would work better for a far more moderate PC party in a left wing province, like Manitoba, so the ANDP will probably still just focus on the deliberately callous but less important thing the Stelmach government did without attacking the root of Alberta's cissexist medical model.)
New poll from CBC out today:
Conservative: 46
Wildrose: 24
NDP: 14
Lib: 12
Alberta: 4
This has the Conservatives down 7% from 2008, Wildrose up 17%, NDP up 6%, and the Liberals down 14%.
Boy oh boy - the Alberta Liberals sure managed to pick a winner thanks to letting "supporters" who were not members vote in their leadership contest (not)
Small L liberals in Alberta have basically taken over the Alberta PC Party so it makes sense that the Big L Alberta Liberal party is losing support. With Redman as the new Premier, in makes sense that cenrists are coalescing with the PC Party.
If the Wildrose Party loses the election it will be interesting to see if right-wingers in Alberta return to the PC Party in order to reclaim their previously dominant role.
It helps that the Liberals brand across Canada has taken such a hit since May while the "orange" brand is on the upswing. The AB Liberals also picked a loose cannon wing nut Raj Sherman as their leader and that is accelerating the decline...plus Alison Redford is attractive to a lot of small "l" liberal types. I don't see rightwingers going back to the PCs if they win the election. If the PCs win - the Redford wing of the party will be in total control and the government will be as "red Tory" as they come. I think that unless Wildrose gets wiped out - they will become a new rightwing opposition to the PCs while the NDP opposes from the left. The Liberals will die.
In fairness to Sherman, the Liberal decline was evident before he became leader. In fact, it's likely the reason David Swann resigned as leader in the first place, even before he contested a single election.
However, the claims from his supporters that he would blow a fresh wind into the party sails were always overblown. He may yet surprise in the campaign, but the evidence picked up from the doorsteps suggests he is a weight on their progress.
The voting method certainly helped elect him. Sherman spent money robo-calling the province picking up supporters and registering them instantly. Had he been required to collect $5 from each of them, I suspect MLA Hugh MacDonald would be Liberal Leader today.
Of course, there was nothing preventing MacDonald or other 'real' Liberals from doing the same thing. Frankly, if MacDonald or Blakeman had not avoided running for the leadership in 2008, the party might not be in their current mess today. The roots of the Liberal demise (if it does come about) trace back to years and years of poor strategic decisions, and not a small amount of bad luck.
Daveberta says the Liberals have nominated 28/87 candidates. An election call is expected in weeks. Several Liberal incumbents are retiring. I don't know what the state is of the party's election debt.
They are in deep, deep, deep trouble.
Where is Debater when we need him?
Is the expectation that Redford will give a throne speech and then seek a writ for an election?
ETA: Ironically (given the layout of vote splits), it is in the NDP's interest to help the PCs undermine the WRA, in the hopes that the NDP can become the official opposition.
It helps that the Liberals brand across Canada has taken such a hit since May while the "orange" brand is on the upswing. The AB Liberals also picked a loose cannon wing nut Raj Sherman as their leader and that is accelerating the decline...plus Alison Redford is attractive to a lot of small "l" liberal types. I don't see rightwingers going back to the PCs if they win the election. If the PCs win - the Redford wing of the party will be in total control and the government will be as "red Tory" as they come. I think that unless Wildrose gets wiped out - they will become a new rightwing opposition to the PCs while the NDP opposes from the left.
Well, Peter Lougheed was almost certainly to the left of Alison Redford, and after 1975, was able to command overwhelming support from Albertans across the political spectrum. After the decimation of the Socred remnants in the '75 election, right-wing opposition to Lougheed never amounted to more than a tiny handful of seats(four at the most) scattered between a succession of small parties.
So even in the event of Wildrose picking up a respectable showing of seats, I wouldn't rule out right-wing voters eventually just shrugging their shoulders and getting on side with the winning team. Outside of Edmonton, and especially in the rural areas, Albertans tend not to divide their vote for very long.
Caveat that Lougheed was governing during a generally more left-wing era, so it's hard to make absolute ideological comparisons between then and now.
Abingdon Research
PC: 37.9
Wildrose: 29.4
NDP: 14.4
Lib: 13.7
Other: 4.5
The NDP result has been at 13% or more in 12 published polls over a one year period. Source.
Abingdon Research
PC: 37.9
Wildrose: 29.4
NDP: 14.4
Lib: 13.7
Other: 4.5
23,889 completed interviews from Jan. 30 to Feb. 2
Terrible optics for the PCs, masters of the Alberta one-party state.
And Reform Party style chicanery by the WRA.
It's going to be a weird and wild election.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-a...
The Premier of Alberta is staking the province’s fiscal health on surging growth in the oil sands, betting that bitumen royalties will more than double in five years despite uncertainty about energy prices.
Production of oil sands bitumen is set to climb sharply in the coming years, as energy giants spend billions to build new projects and tap the province’s vast reserves. The growing revenue from bitumen royalties will help replace natural gas revenue, and support the government’s expanded spending while warding off new taxes.
On line survey, who will you vote for in the provincial election?
Fourm Research:
PC: 37
Wildrose: 30
Lib: 14
NDP: 13
I can't remember a time with so many polls in Alberta politics.
Fourm Research:
PC: 37
Wildrose: 30
Lib: 14
NDP: 13
I can't remember a time with so many polls in Alberta politics.
The Alberta NDP doesn't seem to have much traction. I wonder if any of that will change once the campaign starts.
They had 8% in the last election so the polls indicate they will almost double their support and probably overtake the Liberals as the opposition to the PCs on the left.
They had 8% in the last election so the polls indicate they will almost double their support and probably overtake the Liberals as the opposition to the PCs on the left.
Still, it's a far cry from the Alberta NDP's numbers in the late 1980s. With the NDP ascendant virtually everywhere else, it's hard not to feel grumpy.
Keep in mind that the NDP is currently a marginal party in Alberta while the dominant narrative focuses around the PC-Wildrose battle, so of course the NDP is going to get squeezed in between elections. We saw federally that once a campaign actually heats up and people pay attention, anything is possible.
Personally, I think it's remarkable that NDP support has nearly doubled in spite of these setbacks. Greater days are ahead.
Think HQ Public Affairs
PC: 42
Wildrose: 29
NDP: 13
Lib: 12
Alberta: 2
Think HQ Public Affairs
PC: 42
Wildrose: 29
NDP: 13
Lib: 12
Alberta: 2
Difference from their last poll in September:
PC (+2), Wildrose (+5), NDP (-3), Lib (-2), Alberta (-1)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012
Stumbled across the endorsement page for Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge West, and was very pleasantly surprised to see Leeroy Stagger as one of her endorsers. I absolutely love the song of his called, "Where I Live," which talks about issues like environmental destruction, challenges people have in making ends meet, income inequality and unemployment, and popular alienation from the political process. She sounds like a stellar candidate, any Lethbridgers care to weigh in on her chances of being elected?
And the first campaign gaffe goes to the Wildrose, for their bus design:
Yes, quite.
So that's why she leans to the right.
Has the writ actually been dropped yet?
(by the way, I've always wondered...when they "drop the writ", does somebody have to go back and pick it up, or to they order a new one?)
If they have, when is election day?
I wonder what Gary Goodyear would think of that one.
It was rumoured to set everyone a twiter.
The Wildrose "hubcap" gaffe made "Jimmy Kimmel" live(the late night talk show on ABC)here in the States tonight.
BTW...any theories as to why they haven't just gone ahead and called the damn election yet?
It has to be within three months...so what have the PC's got to gain at this point by stalling?
Nothing's gonna change that much between now and whenever pollling day actually is.
Ken - Redford's crew quite arrogantly assumed they would perform so well in the spring session of the Legislature, their polling numbers would improve. As a result, Redford publicly and repeatedly promised to pass the budget before calling an election.
It didn't work out that way.
The budget will pass today. I expect her to call the election on Monday.
Albertans will go to the polls to elect the next provincial government on April 23, Premier Alison Redford announced Monday.
The writ was issued around 10 a.m. MT when Redford visited Lt.-Gov. Donald Ethell in his office at the Alberta legislature.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/03/26/edmonton-alberta...
The Alberta NDP struggles for media coverage and I don't think these issues are enough of a wedge to get the NDP noticed. On improved health care, Premier Redford has the health care inquiry that she can point to. There have also been increases in funding over the years. On improved education, Redford has the Education Act that seeks to ban the teaching of homophobia in government sponsored classrooms. She has successfully painted it as being held up by members of the WRA and is facing a battle with social conservatives who are switching their allegiances. Lower electricity prices is not a top-of-mind issue, but makes an okay second-tier platform item. The problem with this one though, is that Albertans know they have lower energy prices than the rest of the country in other areas like gasoline and natural gas. A tougher approach to polluters is one of those things that many Alberta voters support in theory, but don't vote for in practice. Given a choice between economic opportunity and the environment, most Albertans cast a vote for economic opportunity especially if environmental damage can be kept more out of sight and out of mind (i.e. no pulp mill @ Kananaskis). Those voters that do vote environment are the tiny collection of Liberals, NDP, and Alberta Party (and any supporters of the defunct Alberta Greens). Evenso, one has to wonder whether the environment is "the" ballot question for these (or the vast majority of) Alberta voters. Lastly, getting more royalty revenue from energy companies is a really old issue. It does not seem to be a present issue in this election and there are many strategic reasons why it lacks the ring of a winner for the Alberta NDP. For one, among economic conservatives it is known (because of the recent deficits) that Alberta is rather dependent for a rather large chunk of its revenues, on these resource royalties. When the oil patch slows down, the loss of royalties from decreased production and loss of income & consumption taxes from employment, lead to deficit scenarios. What's more, when the oil patch slows, the political instinct is more often to NOT raise royalty revenues so as not to jeopardise any form of recovery in production in the oil patch. In fact, the pressure often runs the other way: cut royalties slightly so that production rebounds.
Yes, I know there is Kevin Taft's new book, but who reads that? Are the arguments all that new and if they aren't that new, why haven't they caught on? I just don't see this issue as a winner right now. It has been argued over and over, the NDP has ocassionally used it to score some points but never some wins and that is more present to the voter: the sense that this debate has been had before and that it has reached some conclusions, not irrevocable, but I don't sense any major appetite to relive the old debates.
I hope Brian Mason comes out with better wedges. I'm more than a little concerned.
-
-
Redford seems to think there are some votes on the environment. She is offering R&D money to the oil patch, which she claims could reduce their environmental impact. I know a lot of Albertans are ashamed of the environmental damage from the tar sands,but people don't usually do anything about it.
On education, I may be wrong, but I thought Alberta had the highest paid teachers in Canada. A big contract was signed a few years ago.
Nice new website for the Alberta NDP. I see they are running on Brian Topp's slogan for the 2011 federal campaign.
The Alberta NDP has better candidates than usual, is fully nominated, and has some nice promo shots of them. Now they need media coverage and some momentum. link
Today's Forum Poll:
In Edmonton: PC 28%, WR 23%, NDP 23%, LPA 18%
WRA has a 9% lead on PCs province-wide. The WRA are cut from the same oddball cloth as the early Reform.
Today's Forum Poll:
In Edmonton: PC 28%, WR 23%, NDP 23%, LPA 18%
WRA has a 9% lead on PCs province-wide. The WRA are cut from the same oddball cloth as the early Reform.
Kim Redford?
Today's Forum Poll:
In Edmonton: PC 28%, WR 23%, NDP 23%, LPA 18%
WRA has a 9% lead on PCs province-wide. The WRA are cut from the same oddball cloth as the early Reform.
Took me a moment to realize it was only Edmonton. Looks like Redford is bombing. It would be a disaster if the WRA got a majority.
Today's Forum Poll:
In Edmonton: PC 28%, WR 23%, NDP 23%, LPA 18%
WRA has a 9% lead on PCs province-wide. The WRA are cut from the same oddball cloth as the early Reform.
Do the NDP have a path to get to the top here, in Edmonton? Sure hope so!
Today's Forum Poll:
In Edmonton: PC 28%, WR 23%, NDP 23%, LPA 18%
WRA has a 9% lead on PCs province-wide. The WRA are cut from the same oddball cloth as the early Reform.
Do the NDP have a path to get to the top here, in Edmonton? Sure hope so!
It should be concentrated enough to pick up some seats.
Maybe, but there could be a nasty strategic voting thing that happens if people decide to vote PC to keep out Wildrose.
Yes, and what deserved blowback there will be if there is nasty strategic voting by the right wing, when the Libs and NDP should have been cooperating themselves, all along, and planning their own "nasty strategic voting" and/or coordinated nominations, etc. themselves, such as proposed by the ChangeAlberta campaign. Fighting fire with fire. Clearly the right wing knows how to outsmart the left every time, and I guess, folks, that means they are smarter.
When I read stats like this: "In Edmonton: PC 28%, WR 23%, NDP 23%, LPA 18%," I truly doubt how competent or smart the strategists in the Lib and NDP parties are, and I don't really care how many years of party membership or working for the party they have under their belts. They clearly don't understand the progressive public's mood, they clearly underestimate the sheer power of the oil parties in this province to run the show their way, forever, nor do they appear to have ANY sense whatsoever of how frustrated progressive voters are at the centre-left party wonks who don't understand -- or who don't want to admit -- that there is strength in numbers, and thus, that the parties closer on the spectrum should come to some working arrangements. That high-up party execs seem not to have heard of "the enemy of the enemy of my friend," or the need to work in conjunction with each other, is frankly mind-boggling to logical progressives. How do they think coalitions work in Europe?????
Heh, but let's see what happens in the election. Let's see how well they both do, going it all alone, ... as per usual (as that's how anyone could ever run a city, a province, or a country, even if they were to achieve power, which they seem not to care about doing). No wonder so many good and decent and compassionate and wise people utterly give up on politics in this godforsaken province; they get so tired of watching the two parties knock themselves bloody in the ring, election after election, they just finally throw in the towel, and say, "Okay, you effing knuckleheads, you win."
My god, what a waste of everyone's precious life and time to even bother getting involved with such mule-headed stubborness.
Give it a rest. You can't assume that Liberal voters would transfer their votes to the NDP in such a scenario(it's equally likely that they'd swing to the PC's to stop BOTH a center-left alliance AND the Wildrose.
Just ask former Alberta Liberal MLA Briget Pastoor.
Besides, if the polling numbers continue to hold up this way, it could very well usher in a minority government, which would certainly give progressive parties more clout.
PC: 43 Lib: 35 NDP: 18 WR: 2 Edmonton 12 PC: 28 -15 Lib: 18 -17 NDP: 23 +5 WR: 23 +21 Biggest losers are the Libs and PCs; this could mean if you had most of the Lib vote go to the NDP, there is what possibly 5-6 ridings the NDP could win? espcially with the right so evenly fractured. The NDP could win upwards of 10 seats if the votes were even enough a party could win with 25% of the vote (including the Alberta Party and Evergreen in the mix)
PC: 43 Lib: 35 NDP: 18 WR: 2 Edmonton 12 PC: 28 -15 Lib: 18 -17 NDP: 23 +5 WR: 23 +21 Biggest losers are the Libs and PCs; this could mean if you had most of the Lib vote go to the NDP, there is what possibly 5-6 ridings the NDP could win? espcially with the right so evenly fractured. The NDP could win upwards of 10 seats if the votes were even enough a party could win with 25% of the vote (including the Alberta Party and Evergreen in the mix)
I saw the pdf on Stephen Taylor's blog, which I would never link to if I could possibly avoid it.
The NDP opposed Keystone XL on the grounds that some CEP union workers working at the bitumen upgrading plants would be affected.
Hi Ken,
You give it a rest.
As a committed NDP voter, I am sick to death of hearing excuses why NDPers can't cooperate with other groups and parties that are more aligned in several, if not many or all, policies than the right wing. Refusing to work together with other parties is a myopic, narrow, blind and childishly self-fulfilling prophecy that has locked us into a right wing ruling state in Alberta, which we have now had for 40 years. And, now, as David Climenhaga's column today suggests, we could see it move FURTHER to the right with the Wildrose, because moderate people who might have actually gotten off the couch and voted for something that shows some real numbers strength, haven't been given that credible choice.
"You can't assume that Liberal voters would transfer their votes to the NDP in such a scenario (it's equally likely that they'd swing to the PC's to stop BOTH a center-left alliance AND the Wildrose." Likewise, YOU can't assume that they won't. Your statement, however, is only true IF party leaders continually advise their voters never to cooperate. But if cooperation is never attempted, we'll never know, will we?
With the exception of a handful of new seats -- and even that is iffy -- I think you'll see the progressive parties will end up in the same old laughably puny state.
But you know what? Let's let the election results on April 26th 8pm tell the tale (not that previous ones have taught the party one damned thing about how to move towards power or even a strong progressive opposition position.) 5 minutes after 8 pm when the polls close will be all it will take to do it.
Give it a rest. You can't assume that Liberal voters would transfer their votes to the NDP in such a scenario(it's equally likely that they'd swing to the PC's to stop BOTH a center-left alliance AND the Wildrose.
I can understand the frustration. It's hard to go through election after election with right-wing governments winning massive landslides. I don't think joint nominations solves the problem though. Combine the NDP, LIB, and GRN numbers from the worst Klein election results and the PCs still will a massive landslide.
PC: 43 Lib: 35 NDP: 18 WR: 2 Edmonton 12 PC: 28 -15 Lib: 18 -17 NDP: 23 +5 WR: 23 +21 Biggest losers are the Libs and PCs; this could mean if you had most of the Lib vote go to the NDP, there is what possibly 5-6 ridings the NDP could win? espcially with the right so evenly fractured. The NDP could win upwards of 10 seats if the votes were even enough a party could win with 25% of the vote (including the Alberta Party and Evergreen in the mix)
As a committed NDP voter, I am sick to death of hearing excuses why NDPers can't cooperate with other groups and parties that are more aligned in several, if not many or all, policies than the right wing. Refusing to work together with other parties is a myopic, narrow, blind and childishly self-fulfilling prophecy that has locked us into a right wing ruling state in Alberta, which we have now had for 40 years.
If you want the NDP to cooperate with other "progressive" parties then does that mean they should form an alliance with the Alberta PCs under Redford. She has literally taken the PCs to the left of the Alberta Liberals. maybe the NDP and liberals should fold and throw their support to Alison Redford and cut off Danielle Smith at the pass before its too late!
Stockholm, but if the Alberta Liberals fold, where will disgruntled PCs go when they have leadership ambitions they can't realize within their original party? Of course that the Liberal party continues its zombie like existence is a constant source of amazement to me... it think outwest was right when he wrote:
[...]there is strength in numbers, and thus, that the parties closer on the spectrum should come to some working arrangements.
I can think of no marriage as likely to succeed as that of the Alberta PCs and the indigo Alberta Liberals.
Perhaps that's why the so-called "Alberta Party" was actually formed...to be the eventual wedding chapel for a PC-Liberal coalition party on the model of "The Artist Formerly Known As The BC Social Credit Party".
I've looked at the polls, the platforms, and the campaign over the last couple weeks, and I'm going to make a prediction:
WRP - 52% (73 seats)
PC - 22% (8 seats)
NDP - 17% (6 seats)
LIB - 8% (0 seats)
AP - 1% (0 seats)
Yep.
PC: 43 Lib: 35 NDP: 18 WR: 2 Edmonton 12 PC: 28 -15 Lib: 18 -17 NDP: 23 +5 WR: 23 +21 Biggest losers are the Libs and PCs; this could mean if you had most of the Lib vote go to the NDP, there is what possibly 5-6 ridings the NDP could win? espcially with the right so evenly fractured. The NDP could win upwards of 10 seats if the votes were even enough a party could win with 25% of the vote (including the Alberta Party and Evergreen in the mix)
The NDP opposed Keystone XL on the grounds that some CEP union workers working at the bitumen upgrading plants would be affected.
Not exactly. I think the idea is that there would be more upgrading (and more jobs) in Canada, and that development would be slowed down while more upgraders were built.
In other words...you're sayng the PC dynasty has, at long last, lost "The Mandate of Heaven".
I predict 3 seats for the Alberta NDP
Well I'm not from Alberta and so know nothing except that it's always a blue province but If the conservatives under Redford are tanking so much and their candidates don't know what they are doing on the door step than perhaps the NDP may become the strategic choice to pick up the vote of those who dont' want Wildrose but can't vote for the train wreck Redford con party - and if the NDP look good and smart and shiny, well you just never know.
Edmonton Abacus, March 26-28th
PC 30 WRA 29 LIB 20 NDP 18 OTH 3
And those are the good numbers
ETA: 36% of PC and WRA supporters say they did not vote last time. Way way more than for any of the other parties. Someone's "inspiring" the voters, it's just not us.
I think the Alberta NDP will get a bump from the debate (there is going to be one right?). Brian Mason is the most experienced politician that will be on that stage.
Some levity.
Edmonton Abacus, March 26-28th
PC 30 WRA 29 LIB 20 NDP 18 OTH 3
And those are the good numbers
Those are relatively good numbers for Edmonton. In the 2008 campaign, the numbers in Edmonton were PC:43%, Lib:33%, NDP:18%. The NDP narrowly lost two seats to the Tories that the NDP held prior to the 2008 election; with the vote split in this way, those seats should be won again by the NDP.
The Liberals won 3 seats in Edmonton with 33% of the vote there; at 20%, the Liberals would likely lose their seats if all else were equal. But, on the other hand, while Wild Rose will have a hard time winning any seats in Edmonton, taking a lot of what had been Tory votes away may open up seats for New Democrats and maybe even Liberals to pick up seats that would have been out of reach with a "united right" campaign. Wild Rose may well win the second greatest number of seats provincewide, but Edmonton has the potential to be in a sea of its own.
It is still early in the campaign and things have the potential to change. The media generally has paid the greatest amount of attention to the Wild Rose spurt in popular support in the early days of the campaign. While the Calgary Herald may stay focused on the PC/WRA race, I would expect Edmonton media to talk a lot more about "interesting splits" as election day approaches, which will help the NDP there.
ADDED: Oops. When I looked at the Wikipedia page for the 2008 Alberta provincial election, I didn't notice that the numbers that I cited above were for the city of Edmonton alone. The Abacus polling numbers are clearly for Edmonton and surroundings. If the NDP is polling at 18% in Edmonton and surroundings, things will be even better for the NDP in the city proper, where the NDP and Liberal vote in recent years has been concentrated.
Edmonton Abacus, March 26-28th
PC 30 WRA 29 LIB 20 NDP 18 OTH 3
And those are the good numbers
The other advantage is if that poll holds, it gives a minority legislature, which will give the NDP a great deal of sway even with a small number of seats.
I think the Alberta NDP will get a bump from the debate (there is going to be one right?). Brian Mason is the most experienced politician that will be on that stage.
April 12
http://daveberta.ca/2012/03/who-should-be-invited-to-the-televised-leaders-debate/
OMG, the NDP possibly holding the balance of power in Alberta. Go Wildrose Go!!!
i am so scared of the wildrose winning. Since i am in calgary i think i might vote PC, maybe liberal to try to prevent the wildrose from winning. Is anyone else voting strategically for the PC?
From the Globe:Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: poll
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majorit...
OMG, the NDP possibly holding the balance of power in Alberta. Go Wildrose Go!!!
Be careful what you wish for. The WRA might get a majority. A minority would be very interesting though, and I can't see anyone else supporting the WRA.
From the G&M article above:
Edmonton, Wildrose is at 31, PCs 30, Liberals 18, NDP 17 and Alberta Party 3. However, the margin of error is much higher in the cities, just over five per cent, because the sample sizes are just a few hundred.
The polls are consistent with a WRA majority government. The only thing that (I think) can stop it is WRA gaffes while they hold the frontrunner seat. Don't vote strategically unless you are convinced that it is really going to make a difference. The burden of proof should land on the value of voting strategically, not voting for your first choice. In the end, Alberta may just as likely see a PC wipeout, WRA majority, and the NDP & Liberals coming close in surprising places due to 3 or 4-way vote splits.
In 6 days the polls have gone from showing a tie to showing a 13 point WRP lead. It's pretty clear how the Redford-Smith battle for government is going to go at this point. The next question is how Mason and Sherman will compete for votes in Edmonton. I think that at some point, the progressive vote in Edmonton will consolidate around the organizationally stronger NDP, and allow them to come up the middle between a WRP and PC split to take 5 or more seats.
An interesting tidbit from the federal Forum poll that came out after Mulcair's victory at the leadership convention:
Canada
CPC - 35% (down 5)
NDP - 35% (up 4)
LIB - 19% (even)
BLQ - 7% (up 1)
GRN - 3% (down 1)
Alberta
CPC - 52% (down 15)
NDP - 31% (up 14)
LIB - 14% (up 5)
GRN - 3% (down 3)
The NDP is also leading in Saskatoba. Don't let them tell you it can't be done. I forget who said that.
It seems there is not a political party that is far enough to the right to satisfy Albertans.WR - 43%
PC - 30%
NDP - 12%
Wildrose poised for majority in Alberta: pollhttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-poised-for-majorit...
I am in calgary and would like to vote for the NDP but the NDP have no chance of winning a seat in Calgary. Therefore, my choices are either Liberal or PC if i want to vote to try to prevent the Wildrose from winning a majority.
Then make the choice you see fit. That doesn't make a case for voting Liberal or PC anywhere ELSE in Alberta, though.
Then make the choice you see fit. That doesn't make a case for voting Liberal or PC anywhere ELSE in Alberta, though.
I agree. Each person needs to make their own decision. But i do hope people vote strategically to prevent the wildrose from winning.
I am in calgary and would like to vote for the NDP but the NDP have no chance of winning a seat in Calgary. Therefore, my choices are either Liberal or PC if i want to vote to try to prevent the Wildrose from winning a majority.
My philosophy is that one vote doesn't really matter much anyway. So vote for how you want, it's not like it's going to come down to that one vote.
If you are willing to work for a campaign, or even just take a sign, well then it would be worth being "strategic".
If you're just planning to vote and not much more, might as well just vote for your first choice.
CFL