BC May 9, 2017 Election Results and Comments

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NorthReport
BC May 9, 2017 Election Results and Comments

It's just about that time folks. 

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Were exit polls taken?  And if so, how soon would they be released?

NorthReport

Pop Vote

L - 49%

N - 33%

G - 17%

NorthReport

Seats (Leading)

L - 17

N - 11

G - 0

NorthReport

Seats (leading)

L - 21

N -15

NorthReport

Pop Vote

L - 47%

N - 36%

G - 15%

 

Hunky_Monkey

Still early.  But doesn't look good.  It doesn't surprise me though that Horgan didn't resonate.  Old school labour New Democrat.  

NorthReport

Early going but it appears we have another Liberal majority government.

If it holds it will be 20 years straight of Liberal government.

Hunky_Monkey

40 Libs, 34 NDP, 1 Green.  Could be a really close race in the end.  Shouldn't be.

Hunky_Monkey

42 Liberals, 39 NDP, 1 Green.

Hunky_Monkey

45.2% Lib, 36.6% NDP

NorthReport

Changing Seats

L43-N41-G1

NorthReport

Elected or Leading

N- 43 Seats

L - 42 Seats

G - 1 Seat

Hunky_Monkey

NDP leading 43 to 42 with the Liberals leading by about 5 points in popular vote.

Hunky_Monkey

And now flipped to Liberals 44 to NDP 41.  Long night.

NorthReport

Vaughn Palmer says

Winner is John Horgan

Loser is Christy Clark

NorthReport

If NDP can hold on to its present leading or elected 44 seats, they have a majority government

NorthReport

L - 43%

N - 39%

G - 16%

NorthReport

Leading or Elected

N - 43 seats

L - 42 seats

G - 2 seats

Aristotleded24

Hunky_Monkey wrote:
Liberals leading by about 5 points in popular vote.

Let's see what happens to Liberal popular support now that the NDP is in the strongest position ever to expose the Liberal's dirty laundry.

NorthReport

Which party voted the most in the advance polls as apparently they will not be counted tonite?

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Which party voted the most in the advance polls as apparently they will not be counted tonite?

Advance voting was heavy. I don't think that favours the Liberals. It may not be enough to flip any seats though, let alone two. And the popular vote is getting closer.

Debater

Looks like the Greens are going to win 3 seats and end up with the balance of power.

Aristotleded24

Clark wants to be the minority

Watch the Liberal disinegration play out in slow motion as the Clark government is now no longer in complete control of the Ledge and what happens (and someone please write a platfrom that focuses on the needs of residents in the Interor that have been ignored by the outgoing government so that the NDP has more breathing room next time).

As BC brings in good laws around minimum wage, banning union and corporate donations, building a good child care system, and making life more affordable for students, it will be harder for Pallister to justify rolling back what the NDP accomplished in these areas here in Manitoba.

It is late, and I am off to sleep because I have a ton of things go to tomorrow. But with these election results, combined with the Senators winning their series, South Korea voting for dialogue with their northern neighbours, and Comey being fired as head of the FBI, many good things happened today.

Congratulations BC on taking the first steps towards tossing out a corrupt government. Well done!

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

The Liberals have been kept to a minority ... for now.

The Liberals won 43 out of 87 seats. 44 are needed for a majority.

Unfortunately, there are two scenarios in which the BC Liberals could still pick up an extra seat and get a majority.

The first is that the NDP has a lead of only 9 votes in Courtenay-Comox. When the absentee ballots are counted on May 22, the Liberals could well pick up this riding. There are a few other ridings where the NDP has slim leads, and which the Liberals could also pick up, although Courtenay-Comox is most likely.

The other scenario is that Andrew Weaver crosses the floor and joins the Liberals in exchange for a cabinet post. I saw an article posted on Facebook in which one of the more prominent Liberal MLAs who got re-elected was suggesting that Weaver crossing the floor is a real possibility, though I'm too tired to try and find it at the moment. Weaver crossing the floor is likely in the event that Weaver wants to support the Liberals over the NDP, but the other two Green MLAs would prefer to support the NDP.

NorthReport

How are the absentee ballots secured until they are counted?

no1important

I doubt a minority. The libs will end up with Comox when the absentee military votes are counted as NDP only have a 9 vote lead there so that will give Clark 44 seats. A razor thin majority. To bad NDP lost Skeena..

no1important

Amazing with all the shit the liberals have done the NDP can not win a clear majority? Like wtf? Either the NDP is incompetent or BC people love corruption, suicides, wasted tax money on futile court battles, dams, the disabled living in utter poverty , drug overdoses, homeless and lack of housing and affordable housing issues, cow towing to the rich etc etc the list of liberal shit is endless yet the NDP can not capitalize, especially after 16 years of liberal party bs....

I would never hire that clown Christy to sit and watch grass grow....

Well we will see the Greens true colours soon enough...

I dunno what disgusts me more the BC Libs or the people that vote for them..

Rev Pesky

Two things I found interesting. One, Green leader Andrew Weaver made political donation rules the only 'deal breaker' in collaborating with other parties. Nothing about the carbon tax, public transit, or any other 'green' issue.

Secondly, the two ridings closest to the Site C dam (Peace River South and Peace River North) were both overwhelmingly Liberal, 76% and 66% respectively. It seems pretty clear that the majority of citizens there are in favour of Site C. All those who express support for 'local' decision making should take note.

If the seat numbers remain the same after counts and recounts, I think it is fair that the Liberals be given the chance to form a government. They did, after all, achieve a higher percentage of popular vote, and they have the most seats. I don't think the Greens should be allowed to be 'king-makers'. That's too much like the PR voting which results in small parties determining who becomes government.

My estimation of Weaver is that he is unlikely to try do anything with the NDP. I believe he is a conservative at heart, and the scenario of him joining the Liberals in exchange for a cabinet position seems possible. How he could write off his 'green' policies without a backward glance is sure to trouble the Green Party, but as I pointed out, he has already said the only sure 'deal breaker' is political donation rules. In effect, he has already abandoned the Green Party platform.

In any case, interesting days ahead...

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

no1important wrote:
Amazing with all the shit the liberals have done the NDP can not win a clear majority? Like wtf? Either the NDP is incompetent or BC people love corruption, suicides, wasted tax money on futile court battles, dams, the disabled living in utter poverty , drug overdoses, homeless and lack of housing and affordable housing issues, cow towing to the rich etc etc the list of liberal shit is endless yet the NDP can not capitalize, especially after 16 years of liberal party bs....

The NDP was running against piles of corporate money, a corporate media that heavily favoured the liberals and downplayed their scandals, and every rich prick on this continent.

Against this, Horgan ran a compassionate and principled campaign. While the NDP's platform was nowhere near as bold as I would have liked, it did nonetheless reflect key priorities of feminists, environmentalists, indigenous activists, housing activists, students, teachers, and health care workers.

BC is a very polarized province. The ridings that the NDP picked up in the lower mainland shows to me that issues such as the affordability crisis, health care and education, and the environment, played a big role in much of Metro Vancouver.

Unfrtunately, BC still has a strong Conservative streak, as was illustrated by the ridings that continued heir tradition of always voting for the corporate backed-party. And the fact that every riding along the as-yet nonexistent LNG corridor voted Liberal shows that a majority of those who could be bothered to vote in those riding want resource extraction jobs.

The one mistake that I do believe the NDP made in the closing days of the campaign, after the AdvantageBC scandal broke, was to not shift their campaign to exclusively hammering the Liberals on this. The AdvantageBC scandal clearly showed that the main policy initiative of the Liberals at present is corporate welfare. Not to mention that one of the companies that got corporate tax breaks from the AdvantageBC program is considered an international criminal organization by the U.S. government.

That the Liberals are funneling taxpayer money directly to multinational corporations, while the cost of housing skyrockets out of control, thousands of renters face eviction, record numbers of people die on our streets from Fentanyl overdoses, child poverty remains the highest in Canada, and health care and education continue to deteriorate, is truly disgusting.

That the NDP did not hammer the Liberals relentlessly on this during the closing days of the campaign allowed the corporate media to downplay the scandal, so that it did not become a major factor in most people's votes.

Where I do believe the AdvantsgeBC scandal played a role was in motivating more NDP supporters to volunteer for the NDP's GOTV effort. Given the low voter turnout overall, this boost to the NDP's GOTV effort was I believe a key factor in allowing the NDP to pick up ridings in Metro Vancouver.

nicky

It looks like Green vote splitting may have saved Clark.  

With polls showing that the great majority of Green voters wanting rid of Clark, can wever really afford to prop her up? He would be facing severe retribution from his electorate in any new election.

Cna anyone comment on the way absentee votes might go? Whom did they favour in the last election?

Geoff

Rev Pesky wrote:

Two things I found interesting. One, Green leader Andrew Weaver made political donation rules the only 'deal breaker' in collaborating with other parties. Nothing about the carbon tax, public transit, or any other 'green' issue.

Secondly, the two ridings closest to the Site C dam (Peace River South and Peace River North) were both overwhelmingly Liberal, 76% and 66% respectively. It seems pretty clear that the majority of citizens there are in favour of Site C. All those who express support for 'local' decision making should take note.

If the seat numbers remain the same after counts and recounts, I think it is fair that the Liberals be given the chance to form a government. They did, after all, achieve a higher percentage of popular vote, and they have the most seats. I don't think the Greens should be allowed to be 'king-makers'. That's too much like the PR voting which results in small parties determining who becomes government.

My estimation of Weaver is that he is unlikely to try do anything with the NDP. I believe he is a conservative at heart, and the scenario of him joining the Liberals in exchange for a cabinet position seems possible. How he could write off his 'green' policies without a backward glance is sure to trouble the Green Party, but as I pointed out, he has already said the only sure 'deal breaker' is political donation rules. In effect, he has already abandoned the Green Party platform.

In any case, interesting days ahead...

In a minority government, whatever party has the confidence of the House may govern. Therefore, there's no such thing as "not allowing" the Greens to be 'kingmakers' (or 'queenmakers', for that matter.) Whoever can reach a compromise with the Greens will govern, assuming the recounts don't alter the results.

 

Martin N.

Rev Pesky makes an interesting remark about the Liberal vote in the Peace in that it highlights the disinformation the left peddles about how much support they have for dismantling the resource economy. The fact is that most residents are much more concerned about jobs than they are about social engineering.

The NDP once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by pandering to their loonies rather than promoting reasonable policies that resonated with the average voter.

With the baggage that BC's cheery dissembler has accumulated, she should have lost but the NDP prefers ideological purity to political power although they campaign from the left and govern from the middle on the occasion they accidentally win.

bekayne

Here's the absentee ballots from Comox Valley in 2013:

https://twitter.com/DarcyRiddell/status/862197362210385920?ref_src=twsrc...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

no1important wrote:

Amazing with all the shit the liberals have done the NDP can not win a clear majority? Like wtf?

The MSM in BC has vilified the NDP since it was the CCF. Every election they ramp it way up but even in between elections the messaging is always anti-NDP. Its called propaganda but foolishly we call it democracy.

It’s no secret: Canada’s biggest newspaper chain is pushing hard for another Christy Clark majority government.

Postmedia, which owns the Vancouver Sun and The Province, donated $10,000 to re-elect the BC Liberals. Both Vancouver papers have officially endorsed Christy Clark (neither editorial mentioned the RCMP investigation of party fundraising, or Big Money in politics).

...

It’s not just Postmedia.

Black Press has given $10,130, including a $3,500 cheque in January. They own local papers all over B.C. Glacier Media (which now owns the Times Colonist), donated $100,000 to the BC Liberals in 2009.

Bell, which owns CTV News, BNN, CFAX 1070 and other talk radio outlets, has donated $65,968 over the years. Shaw, which has since been bought by Corus in a deal that includes Global News, gave the BC Liberals $139,925.

The Rogers Group, which owns City TV, Maclean’s magazine and News 1130, has given a staggering $458,018 to B.C.’s ruling party.

Why would media owners put their news reporters in such an awkward position? The simple answer is they don’t care. They’re producing entertainment. And Christy Clark is good for business.

https://dogwoodbc.ca/even-media-donates-christy-clark/

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

bekayne wrote:

Here's the absentee ballots from Comox Valley in 2013:

https://twitter.com/DarcyRiddell/status/862197362210385920?ref_src=twsrc...

The absentee ballots always break against the NDP primarily because the riding includes the Comox Airforce base. This riding was also subjected to redistribution. It hived off Cumberland which is one ot the three towns in the Comox Valley plus the smaller villages of Union Bay and Fanny Bay plus Denman and Hornby Island. All of those areas are strong NDP polls. The new riding of Mid-Island Pacic Rim, where they were moved to, was won by Scott Fraser with a 5,000 vote purality. Gerry mandering is a fine thing to see in action. 

This riding contains the majority of  the population of the federal riding where Catherine Bell lost two out of three elections by slim margins. The Canadian forces vote is the biggest factor in the riding.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The absentee ballots in the Courtenay riding in 2013 had a 2,000 pro-Liberal advantage and in 2009 it was a 1,500 advantage. Slim hope of hanging on in that seat.

Mobo2000

A disappointing result.   Krop is right they are almost certainly going to lose Courtenay in the recount.    I'll be curious to see what becomes of the Green party.

I don't think the NDP ran a bad campaign, but the money talked in this one.
 

Rev Pesky

From Geoff:

In a minority government, whatever party has the confidence of the House may govern. Therefore, there's no such thing as "not allowing" the Greens to be 'kingmakers' (or 'queenmakers', for that matter.) Whoever can reach a compromise with the Greens will govern, assuming the recounts don't alter the results.

Presumably the Lieutenant-Governor will ask the party with the greatest number of seats to form a government. That would be the Liberals. The Liberals then form the government, and present their legislation some pieces of which would be subject to a confidence vote.

If the government loses the confidence of the legislature, then the Lieutenant-Governor could ask the NDP to form a government, or could accept a Liberal request for another election. I doubt whether the Lieutenant-Governor would start off by asking the NDP to form a government even if the NDP had an agreement with the Green Party.

On the other hand, who knows what will happen. There hasn't been this kind of situation in BC for 65 years, so there isn't a lot of precedent. And of course the current seat numbers may change when the count is finished.

And for those blaming the MSM for the result, I'll just point out that the MSM has always been oppposed to the CCF/NDP, yet they have been able to form the government on three different occasions. If I had to put the blame anywhere I would put it first on the Glen Clark government, and secondly on the current NDP's dithering on items like Site C.

I think there were any number of Liberal voters who would have voted NDP had the NDP been clear about their intentions re: large projeccts. Those voters liked much of the Liberal agenda, but very much disliked the lack of integrity and the corruption of the Liberal Party.  Unfortunately, with the NDP waffling on many of those itmes, those voters were forced back to the Liberals.

Anyhow, we'll see. There may be some surprises yet when the full count is in.

ghoris

My takeaway (as a former BCer) is that there is an increasing 604/250 divide - particularly over issues like resource development vs. environment and affordability. Formerly reliable NDP seats in the Interior either stayed or turned Liberal, with the NDP actually suffering a net loss of two seats outside the Lower Mainland (four if you include Vancouver Island). Conversely, it appears there was a real backlash against the Liberals in the 604 over affordability issues and the Liberals’ perceived coddling of the real estate industry and developers – how else to explain an NDP win on the North Shore, major gains in Surrey, a near-sweep of the ridings north of the Fraser, and surprisingly close races in places like Vancouver-False Creek and Richmond that should be reliably Liberal. The Liberals were reduced to a single seat on Vancouver Island – another area that has seen housing costs and affordability spiral out of control.

I agree with other comments above that there’s a good chance that Courtenay-Comox will flip to the Liberals once the absentee votes are counted, giving the Liberals a bare majority, but I’d hardly call this a convincing win for Clark. Horgan probably did just well enough to be given another kick at the can but this is not a great result for the NDP either. If there was a real winner last night, it was the Greens - especially if they end up with the balance of power. If the Liberals don’t manage to get that 44th seat, I suspect BC will be back at the polls sometime in the fall of 2018 or spring of 2019.

NorthReport

I used the incorrect term. It is the absentee ballots that have not yet been counted. It does appear however that the Liberals will take a seat from the NDP as a result of the count on May 22-24

Policywonk wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Which party voted the most in the advance polls as apparently they will not be counted tonite?

Advance voting was heavy. I don't think that favours the Liberals. It may not be enough to flip any seats though, let alone two. And the popular vote is getting closer.

nicky

The numbers provided by Bekane indicate that the NDP won the absentee voye in Courtney- Comox last time by 1382 to 1370 despite losing the riding bY a fair margin.this seems to bode well for the NDP hanging on there.
Do we know how fhe ansentee vote was last time in ridings where the Libs are narrowly ahead? Van False Ck. Coquitlam Burke Mt in particular?

NorthReport

Election results

L - 43

N - 41

G - 3

After the absentee ballots are counted it will probably be:

L - 44 and a majority 

N - 40

G - 3

Listening to Keith Baldrey last nite on Global when the Liberals had a big lead in the popular vote, Baldrey said usually after a short period of election results the popular vote doesn't much change - he was so wrong about that! 

Final Pop Vote

L - 40.8%

N- 40% 

G - 16.8%

 

Basement Dweller

Was it absentee ballots that gave Selina Robinson her 2013 victory in Coquitlam?

NorthReport
NorthReport
Debater

Will take weeks for B.C. political landscape to sort itself out

By Chantal Hébert

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/10/will-take-weeks-for-bc-po...

Stockholm

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The absentee ballots in the Courtenay riding in 2013 had a 2,000 pro-Liberal advantage and in 2009 it was a 1,500 advantage. Slim hope of hanging on in that seat.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. The link above shows that in 2013 the NDP won the absentee vote narrowly in Comox Valley while they were losing the riding as a whole by 2,000 votes. If that pattern is repeated this time the NDP ought to pad its lead in Courtenay-Comox (which is the successor riding)

josh
no1important

Stockholm wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The absentee ballots in the Courtenay riding in 2013 had a 2,000 pro-Liberal advantage and in 2009 it was a 1,500 advantage. Slim hope of hanging on in that seat.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. The link above shows that in 2013 the NDP won the absentee vote narrowly in Comox Valley while they were losing the riding as a whole by 2,000 votes. If that pattern is repeated this time the NDP ought to pad its lead in Courtenay-Comox (which is the successor riding)

But this time the Liberal candidate was the former base commander so it is 99.9% sure it will go Liberal.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The BCNDP should have agreed to immediate legislation for pr AND immediate campaign finance legislation.  If they had, The Greens would not have acted as saboteurs.

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