BC May 9, 2017 Election Results and Comments

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NorthReport

Every single riding the NDP lost, as well as won last nite, need to start organzing their ridings now!

Chantel Hebert is my Canadian politics guru and my hunch is she is correct about what is coming for BC.

It will take weeks for B.C. political landscape to sort itself out

"As of now and until B.C. returns to the polls at some unspecified time, the province stands to be in permanent campaign mode"

NorthReport
NorthReport

In the scheme of things Andrew Weaver was the big winner last nite, as he effectively now holds the balance of power. Second would be John Horgan, and of course the big loser is Christy Clark.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Can Christy Clark survive politically after B.C. Liberals suffer severe losses across Metro Vancouver?

http://www.straight.com/news/907861/can-christy-clark-survive-politicall...

NorthReport

BC Greens begin talks with other parties

http://www.thegoldenstar.net/news/421930723.html

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

They promised immediate reform to get corporate and union donations banned. The Greens however attacked them for taking those kinds of donations during this election.  Of interest to me is the fact that the Greens did really well since January and those donors are not public yet. I wonder if there is much cross over with Liberal donators.

They promised a referendum on PR but not unilateral implementation. If the Green's want to have fun they could introduce a Bill making PR a reality prior to the next election. That would really put the cat amongst the pidgeons.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Rev Pesky wrote:
Presumably the Lieutenant-Governor will ask the party with the greatest number of seats to form a government. That would be the Liberals. The Liberals then form the government, and present their legislation some pieces of which would be subject to a confidence vote.

If the government loses the confidence of the legislature, then the Lieutenant-Governor could ask the NDP to form a government, or could accept a Liberal request for another election. I doubt whether the Lieutenant-Governor would start off by asking the NDP to form a government even if the NDP had an agreement with the Green Party.

This is not quite how it happens. Because the Liberals have the most seats, Christy Clark gets the first chance to convince the Lieutenant-Governor that she can form a government. The Lieutenant governor gets to decide if she thinks Clark can form a government. If she thinks Clark can form a government, she will ask Clark to present a throne speech. If the Lieutenant-Governor does not think that Clark can form a government, she would then meet with John Horgan and give him a chance to convince her that he can form a government.

At present, the Lietenant-Governor has asked Clark to stay on as premier until the all the ballots have been counted. At this point, if the BC Liberals get 44 MLAs after the final count, the Lieutenant governor will be easily convinced that Clark can form a government, and will ask her to present a throne speech.

If Clark gets a plurality of seats, she will have to demonstrate to the Lieutenant-Governor that she can get the support of enough non-Liberal MLAs to gain the confidence of the legislature (presumably by proving that the Greens will work with her.). Only then would the Lieutenant-Governor ask Clark to present a throne speech.

jas

*

nicky

fun with numbers form a twitter post:

Rev Pesky

From Left Turn:

This is not quite how it happens. Because the Liberals have the most seats, Christy Clark gets the first chance to convince the Lieutenant-Governor that she can form a government. The Lieutenant governor gets to decide if she thinks Clark can form a government. If she thinks Clark can form a government, she will ask Clark to present a throne speech. If the Lieutenant-Governor does not think that Clark can form a government, she would then meet with John Horgan and give him a chance to convince her that he can form a government.

Of course the Lieutenant-Governor has the authority to do as you say. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that the L-G would rather leave it to the legislature to decided who the government will be. We can look at the two recent minority Conservative federal governments to see how things may go here.

On the other hand, we don't know what the final vote count will be. There may be enough change that all current scenarios are off. If the final seat count is tied, which could happen, it certainly would be the Green Party that was the deciding factor.

Policywonk

no1important wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The absentee ballots in the Courtenay riding in 2013 had a 2,000 pro-Liberal advantage and in 2009 it was a 1,500 advantage. Slim hope of hanging on in that seat.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. The link above shows that in 2013 the NDP won the absentee vote narrowly in Comox Valley while they were losing the riding as a whole by 2,000 votes. If that pattern is repeated this time the NDP ought to pad its lead in Courtenay-Comox (which is the successor riding)

But this time the Liberal candidate was the former base commander so it is 99.9% sure it will go Liberal.

The assumption here is that a high proportion of the absentee ballots are from the base. Absentee ballots are from people living all over the constituency. Even with the boundary changes the NDP improved on their showing from 2013. If the same is true with the absentee ballots then the margin will increase. Christy Clark does not deserve a majority government. Let's not concede it to her just yet.

Stockholm

no1important wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The absentee ballots in the Courtenay riding in 2013 had a 2,000 pro-Liberal advantage and in 2009 it was a 1,500 advantage. Slim hope of hanging on in that seat.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. The link above shows that in 2013 the NDP won the absentee vote narrowly in Comox Valley while they were losing the riding as a whole by 2,000 votes. If that pattern is repeated this time the NDP ought to pad its lead in Courtenay-Comox (which is the successor riding)

But this time the Liberal candidate was the former base commander so it is 99.9% sure it will go Liberal.

There are many unknown factors here. First of all, of the 2,000 or so absentee ballots likely to be cast in this riding and that were cast here in 2013 - how many are from the base and how many from the rest of the riding where the vast majority of voters are? It may be that only a small number of people from the base voted absentee. we just don't know.

Stockholm

Rev Pesky wrote:

From Left Turn:

This is not quite how it happens. Because the Liberals have the most seats, Christy Clark gets the first chance to convince the Lieutenant-Governor that she can form a government. The Lieutenant governor gets to decide if she thinks Clark can form a government. If she thinks Clark can form a government, she will ask Clark to present a throne speech. If the Lieutenant-Governor does not think that Clark can form a government, she would then meet with John Horgan and give him a chance to convince her that he can form a government.

That's not how it works. The fact that the Liberals have two more seats than the NDP has nothing to do with who the LG asks to form a government. Because Christy Clark is the incumbent premier she continues to be premier until she either resigns or is dismissed. Even if the seat count was reversed and the NDP had 43 seats and the Liberals had 41 - Clark as the incumbent would still have the first shot at trying to pass a Throne Speech and forming a minority government

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

no1important wrote:
Stockholm wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

The absentee ballots in the Courtenay riding in 2013 had a 2,000 pro-Liberal advantage and in 2009 it was a 1,500 advantage. Slim hope of hanging on in that seat.

I'm not sure what you're talking about. The link above shows that in 2013 the NDP won the absentee vote narrowly in Comox Valley while they were losing the riding as a whole by 2,000 votes. If that pattern is repeated this time the NDP ought to pad its lead in Courtenay-Comox (which is the successor riding)

But this time the Liberal candidate was the former base commander so it is 99.9% sure it will go Liberal.

Then again"the grunts" often feel less than reverent about their treatment by "the brass" on military bases .  It's possible they could vent at the polls rather than the barracks.

Rev Pesky

From Stockholm:

...The fact that the Liberals have two more seats than the NDP has nothing to do with who the LG asks to form a government. Because Christy Clark is the incumbent premier she continues to be premier until she either resigns or is dismissed. Even if the seat count was reversed and the NDP had 43 seats and the Liberals had 41 - Clark as the incumbent would still have the first shot at trying to pass a Throne Speech and forming a minority government.​

One of the problems with the new Babble is the quote function is kind of non-existent. Or rather it doesn't really show what's quote and what's not. Given that, I don't really blame you for your post above, but the statement you're responding to is from Left Turn, not from me. I wonder if you could edit out my handle from that quote.

​As to your statement, I think the L-G has the authority to dismiss the government if she chooses. I'm not sure that she needs any reason. I accept that the existing government will remain in place until such time as the vote is completely counted, and the various parties have decided what they want to do. Obviously someone has to approach the L-​G with a request to form a government, and that is most likely to be the Liberals, and the L-​G will likely accede to that request.

​Earlier I accepted that if the final seat count is tied, the Green Party could be the deciding factor in who gets to form the government, but since then I have thought of another scenario. That is, the Liberals and NDP decide which of them will approach the L-G first, while the other will not try to ally with the Green Party and present themselves as a possible government. In other words, the Liberals and the NDP would reach a mutual agreement to exclude the Green Party from any possible government.

After all, in terms of policy, the NDP and Liberals are not that far apart. The differences are more cosmetic that real. Another possible scenario is that the Liberals go fishing in the NDP pond to see if there's an NDP'er who wouldn't mind switching parties in exchange for, well perhaps not a cabinet position, but some other slightly elevated position. Consider that in the past the BC premier (Ujjal Dosanjh) went from the provincial NDP to the federal Liberal party without so much as a hiccup. Something like that could very easily happen in Surrey, say.

Anyhow, it's kind of fun to speculate, and we have at least a couple of weeks before our speculations are confirmed or trashed.

 

NorthReport

It seems to me that the NDP and the Greens need to sign a letter right away addressed to the LG stating that they agree to governing, and defeat the Liberals at the very first opportunity.  

NorthReport

Clark Is Done; NDP and Greens Now Need to Deliver the Change BC Voted For

Even if results shift, power will remain in hands of John Horgan and Andrew Weaver.

“When nothing is sure, everything is possible.” — Author Margaret Drabble

While the dramatic cliffhanger B.C. election left many questions unanswered, one thing is clear — BC Liberal Premier Christy Clark is finished.

Almost 60 per cent of British Columbians voted for change — and now it’s up to the New Democrat and Green parties to deliver it by defeating the BC Liberals and throwing Clark out of office.

It might take days or a bit longer, but either way the decaying 16-year BC Liberal government with its despicable sense of privileged entitlement, dedication to big money and pay for play politics is going to be turfed.

Even if absentee ballots and recounts were to unfortunately give Clark a bare majority, there is no way the BC Liberals can continue for long.

 

Why? Because it only takes one BC Liberal MLA crossing the floor to the NDP or Greens or to sit as an independent or quitting or, god forbid, passing away, and the B.C. legislature is no longer controlled by Christy Clark.

Or it could be one or two BC Liberal MLAs calling in sick or missing a confidence vote for the government to be defeated. That means either NDP leader John Horgan would be asked to form a new government, with Green Party support, or a new election be called.

Horgan did an amazing job despite being discounted by many media and commentators, bringing the BC NDP tantalizingly close to a majority government and leaving him still on the brink of possibly becoming premier. And if not for BC NDP riding infighting in CowichanColumbia River-Revelstoke and Fraser-Nicola over bitterly contested nominations, Horgan would be premier-elect now.

And Green leader Andrew Weaver also had a stunning breakthrough, doubling the party’s last vote to 16 per cent and tripling their seats by easily holding his riding and convincingly winning two more on Vancouver Island.

image atom

The Most Nail Biting Finish in Memory, Updated

 

One can argue that Green voters pulled a Ralph Nader on the NDP — putting Christy Clark, B.C.’s equivalent of George W. Bush — in office, but there’s no point now crying over spilt votes when there is a disastrous government to jointly defeat.

And the Greens have every right to fight for votes, and voters always have the final decision over where their ballot goes.

But Clark is the big loser. Despite boasting about B.C. having Canada’s strongest economy — true — and despite trumpeting four balanced budgets — also true — Clark’s BC Liberals lost four cabinet ministers, her popular vote dropped and she had a comfortable majority turned into a minority.

That happened even though Clark spent $15 million in taxpayer dollars on partisan government advertising wrongly promoting the BC Liberals.

Clark also lost all those seats even with the BC Liberals being the most heavily corporate-funded political party in Canada, raising over $13 million in 2016, with two-thirds from business.

And Clark had two ex-corporate CEOs running vicious anti-Horgan ads before the election that were worth an estimated $3 million.

Already Clark and her big money backers are desperately trying to cling to power by their fingernails.

Evidence? Clark said in her speech last night: “Our B.C. environment we are so proud of — how do we make it better than we found it?”

Interjected one wag at CBC Tuesday night: “With an oil pipeline?”

And I bet many Green and NDP voters choked at Clark’s newfound environmentalism, thinking of her support for the Kinder Morgan pipeline and resulting increase in oil tankers; her boosting liquefied natural gas and fracking; her hellbent-for-leather intent to build the BC Hydro Site C dam despite huge costs and First Nations and environmental concerns; her continued insistence that a referendum is needed to fund more public transit; her refusal to increase the carbon tax or put revenue from it towards transit or other green initiatives; her refusal to ban grizzly bear trophy hunting — the list goes on and on.

The battle shifts

Now the election battle shifts to critical political decisions by Andrew Weaver and John Horgan.

What Just Happened in British Columbia? And What’s Ahead?

Horgan is well served by his impressive new campaign manager and chief of staff Bob Dewar, who did an amazing job of focusing the BC NDP campaign on the key issues and critical ridings to get the party to a significant seat increase. His years as chief of staff to highly successful former Manitoba NDP premier Gary Doer will help Horgan find a way to end the Clark government’s reign.

But most of the pressure is on Weaver and new Green MLAs Adam Olsen and Sonia Furstenau to make the right decision — and very clearly the Green Party platform and its criticism of the BC Liberals most closely align with the NDP, not the Liberals.

And the BC Liberals’ terrible record on the environment, housing affordability, health care, education, its lack of integrity in political financing and pay for play politics, its consistent and intentional neglect of people with disabilities and those on social assistance should make the choice for the Greens obvious.

The verdict is in — Clark must be thrown out.  [Tyee]

 

 

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/05/11/Clark-Is-Done/

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I'd suggest the NDP propose a economic transition policy for the extractive areas of B.C.- possibly along the lines of staying with extraction for the next five to ten years, with any taxes received by the province from continued extraction designated for research on a transition to renewable job sources and on start-up funds for a renewable economy(this would probably involve setting up large co-ops in the Interior to create such industries, since Bay Street would refuse to invest in any move away from extractive economics).

Yes, the Interior needs jobs.  In the short term at least some of these will need to be extractive(and, while so being, also be required to be unionized and with the strongest environmental and worksite safefy laws possible); in the long term the commitment needs to be jobs without climate disaster.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I'd suggest the NDP propose a economic transition policy for the extractive areas of B.C.- possibly along the lines of staying with extraction for the next five to ten years, with any taxes received by the province from continued extraction designated for research on a transition to renewable job sources and on start-up funds for a renewable economy(this would probably involve setting up large co-ops in the Interior to create such industries, since Bay Street would refuse to invest in any move away from extractive economics).

Yes, the Interior needs jobs.  In the short term at least some of these will need to be extractive(and, while so being, also be required to be unionized and with the strongest environmental and worksite safefy laws possible); in the long term the commitment needs to be jobs without climate disaster.

 

NorthReport

I agree that Christy is done, Kevin Falcon anyone? He has been patiently waiting for this moment. Expect to see his name surface in the not too distant future.

NorthReport

The important job at hand is to defeat the government at the ealiest possible opportunity, so that the LG will allow others to govern. 

NorthReport
NorthReport

The Greens, with 17% support in BC, are now solidly entrenched on the Canadian political map, and they are here to stay. The Green support is only going to grow, so get used to it. For confirmation, just look around you at all the flooding presently going on across the country. Climate change is wrecking havoc, and this is just the beginning.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

My apologies for totally fucking up the absentee ballot numbers. I can only say I stayed up way to late on election  night and got up too early the next day. I am still hopeful Ronna-Rae will hold onto the seat.  

However the gerrymandering is really what caused this result. They took Cumberland and Denman and Hornby Islands out of the riding. All three of those are tradionally NDP polls by large margins. Here are some numbers from Cumberland in 2013.

Poll 139 85 NDP to 33 Lib

Poll 140  99 NDP to 72 Lib

poll 141 114 NDP to 40 Lib

Poll 142A  56 NDP 33 Lib

Poll 142B  44 NDP to 34 Lib

Poll 143S  19 NDP 19 Lib

Poll 144  79 NDP to 38 Lib

Poll 145 117 NDP to 36 Lib

Cumberland total from 2013 NDP 613 to Libs 305

http://142.34.128.33/docs/rpt/2013GE/CMX.pdf

Slightly more than 9 votes and the small Islands are just as NDP friendly as Cumberland although the Greens likely would have picked up support in those areas but not the Libs.

NorthReport
kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Catherine Bell's spouse Riger Kishi just posted this years Cumberland results. Fraser is the NDP MLA and Deluca is Liberal and he finished tied with the Green candidate.  Like I said gerrymandering was in full play here. The Comox Valley consists of three communites one being Cumberland and they put it which is 14 km from Courtenay in with Port Alberni which is 100 kn away.

Cumberland unofficial election results: Fraser- 1201, Deluca- 399, LaRue- 399. 
And there were 43 Absentee ballots.

NorthReport

The grapevine is picking up that so far desperate Christy has offered the Speaker's role to Green Sonia Furstenau and also perhaps to NDP Katrina Conroy. Hopefully this is seen for what it is, and that neither any Green nor NDP bite at this pathetic attempt by the Liberals to hold onto power even though about 60% of the voters voted against them.  

NorthReport

Look at the Green vote here, just 1% behind the NDP

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05...

Stockholm

Apparently it is estimated that there are no more than 5 to 10 absentee ballots in Courtenay-Comox that were cast by military personnel from the base

NorthReport

Bye, bye Christy, hello Kevin Falcon, where are you?

'Some nail-biting to come': B.C. election creates uncertainty for Trudeau's pet projects

Resource projects could be more difficult depending on who forms the next B.C. government

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bc-election-clark-trudeau-uncertainty-1....

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

Ha! Ha! Ha!

Quito Maggi - just another Liberal patsy!

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/new-poll-points-to-liberal-major...

NorthReport
Pogo

Given the support, but unfortunately not overwhelming support, I think the NDP and Greens should look at bringing in an incremental proportional system.  Say 4 seats with 2 for the lower mainland and 2 ROBC (604/250).  Very little upheaval (elected members hate voting their own seats out of existence), and would allow the two areas to have additional champions for voters whose choices did not get representation in the local voting.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

That's a possibility.  Or the German model, with both constituency and list seats(a similar method is used in elections for the Scottish Parliament).

NorthReport

Is this whole election starting to smell?

The Liberals control Elections BC, who in turn control the ballot count, and what do you know, Elections BC find an error in the count in the Liberals favour. Who knew!

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-election-2017-liberal-lead-gro...

NorthReport

You don't have to wonder why this is not in the Vancouver Sun.

B.C. is likely to end up with a minority government: economist

 

The final count for B.C.’s provincial election is most likely to preserve a minority government in which the Liberals hold the most seats, a UBC economist said Thursday.

UBC Prof. Kevin Milligan found that the BC NDP enjoy an absentee ballot advantage in provincial elections — and this time, that advantage could see them gaining some seats, losing others, but still maintaining the same count they had on election night.

“What we have in B.C. is we ,” he told Global News.

Milligan conducted his research by looking at the initial and final results of the 2013 B.C. election.

He found that it wasn’t rare for the NDP to win ridings they initially lost by 170 votes when absentee ballots were counted.

The party initially lost Coquitlam-Maillardville by 111 votes in that election; it later won the riding by 41 votes when absentee ballots were accounted for.

READ MORE: B.C. election 2017: over 176,000 absentee ballots to be counted by May 24

For this election, Milligan conducted 1 million simulation of voting results with absentee ballot counted.

They resulted in a status quo result 62.5 per cent of the time, according to one model; the status quo resulted 61.5 per cent of the time under another one.

But those weren’t the only possibilities that Milligan found in his modelling.

The BC Liberals had about a one-in-10 chance of taking a majority government in his simulations; the NDP, only a 1.4-to-six-per-cent chance of taking more seats than the Liberals.

Milligan sees the NDP holding on to a number of ridings with close results — including Courtenay-Comox, which Ronna-Rae Leonard won by nine votes on Tuesday.

Some expect it to go Liberal once absentee ballots are counted — Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Comox is located there, and former base commander Jim Benninger ran in the riding as a Liberal.

Milligan isn’t so sure.

“It’s actually kind of rare for the Liberals to overcome a nine-point spread,” he said.

But even if the Liberals take Courtenay-Comox, it’s still possible for them to lose Richmond-Queensborough and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, he added.

READ MORE: B.C. election 2017: recount requested in Courtenay-Comox and Maple Ridge-Mission

Those were three of the four ridings that could realistically flip when over 176,000 absentee ballots are counted by May 24, according to Milligan’s modelling.

Here are the riding that could change hands, and their chances of doing so:

  • Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which has a 28.2-per-cent chance of flipping from Liberal to NDP;
  • Courtenay-Comox, which has an 11.7-per-cent chance of switching to the Liberals;
  • Richmond-Queensborough, which has a 5.9-per-cent chance of ending up in the NDP’s hands;
  • Maple Ridge-Mission, which has a 2.4-per-cent chance of going Liberal.

Milligan noted, however, that his models don’t account for specific factors in ridings, such as the Comox military base, or that there might be more union members in one district than others.

He simply didn’t have the data to account for that.

“Some of those things can really matter for these absentee ballots,” he said.

 

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/3446041/bc-election-results-absentee-ballots/

 

NorthReport

Two New Green MLAs Speak: ‘We’re Very Serious about Doing What’s Right for our Province’

Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen share hopes for new era of BC politics.

 

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/05/12/Two-New-Green-MLAs/

NorthReport

BC Politics Enters Its Game of Thrones Era

Intrigue and plotting, threats from without and within, after disruptive election.

 

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/05/12/BC-Politics-Game-of-Thrones-Era/

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

I agree that Christy is done, Kevin Falcon anyone? He has been patiently waiting for this moment. Expect to see his name surface in the not too distant future.

She has a seat; he doesn't.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

You don't have to wonder why this is not in the Vancouver Sun.

B.C. is likely to end up with a minority government: economist

 

The final count for B.C.’s provincial election is most likely to preserve a minority government in which the Liberals hold the most seats, a UBC economist said Thursday.

UBC Prof. Kevin Milligan found that the BC NDP enjoy an absentee ballot advantage in provincial elections — and this time, that advantage could see them gaining some seats, losing others, but still maintaining the same count they had on election night.

“What we have in B.C. is we ,” he told Global News.

Milligan conducted his research by looking at the initial and final results of the 2013 B.C. election.

He found that it wasn’t rare for the NDP to win ridings they initially lost by 170 votes when absentee ballots were counted.

The party initially lost Coquitlam-Maillardville by 111 votes in that election; it later won the riding by 41 votes when absentee ballots were accounted for.

READ MORE: B.C. election 2017: over 176,000 absentee ballots to be counted by May 24

For this election, Milligan conducted 1 million simulation of voting results with absentee ballot counted.

They resulted in a status quo result 62.5 per cent of the time, according to one model; the status quo resulted 61.5 per cent of the time under another one.

But those weren’t the only possibilities that Milligan found in his modelling.

The BC Liberals had about a one-in-10 chance of taking a majority government in his simulations; the NDP, only a 1.4-to-six-per-cent chance of taking more seats than the Liberals.

Milligan sees the NDP holding on to a number of ridings with close results — including Courtenay-Comox, which Ronna-Rae Leonard won by nine votes on Tuesday.

Some expect it to go Liberal once absentee ballots are counted — Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Comox is located there, and former base commander Jim Benninger ran in the riding as a Liberal.

Milligan isn’t so sure.

“It’s actually kind of rare for the Liberals to overcome a nine-point spread,” he said.

But even if the Liberals take Courtenay-Comox, it’s still possible for them to lose Richmond-Queensborough and Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, he added.

READ MORE: B.C. election 2017: recount requested in Courtenay-Comox and Maple Ridge-Mission

Those were three of the four ridings that could realistically flip when over 176,000 absentee ballots are counted by May 24, according to Milligan’s modelling.

Here are the riding that could change hands, and their chances of doing so:

  • Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which has a 28.2-per-cent chance of flipping from Liberal to NDP;
  • Courtenay-Comox, which has an 11.7-per-cent chance of switching to the Liberals;
  • Richmond-Queensborough, which has a 5.9-per-cent chance of ending up in the NDP’s hands;
  • Maple Ridge-Mission, which has a 2.4-per-cent chance of going Liberal.

Milligan noted, however, that his models don’t account for specific factors in ridings, such as the Comox military base, or that there might be more union members in one district than others.

He simply didn’t have the data to account for that.

“Some of those things can really matter for these absentee ballots,” he said.

 

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/3446041/bc-election-results-absentee-ballots/

 

The problem with going by the 2013 election: when were the absentee ballots cast, because the NDP was well ahead in the polls until the very end.

ghoris

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

I agree that Christy is done, Kevin Falcon anyone? He has been patiently waiting for this moment. Expect to see his name surface in the not too distant future.

She has a seat; he doesn't.

Eh, no big deal. Christy didn't have a seat when she won the leadership in 2011 either, and then proceeded to lose her seat in 2013. If she gets the boot, I doubt she will want to hang around as an MLA when there is money to be made in the private sector and on the speaking circuit, which will open up a safe seat for a leader outside caucus to parachute into. Even if she sticks around, someone will stand aside for the leader (of course this is easier when they are still in power and able to dole out a cushy plum appointment as consolation).

I could see a Falcon candidacy having legs. He was a relatively close runner-up last time out, and of the other candidates in that race, two have left the political stage while the other - Mike de Jong - is not exactly an inspiring choice, nor does he represent any kind of break from the Clark regime. I don't see a lot of other obvious candidates in the caucus. Andrew Wilkinson has an impressive resume but is both profile- and charisma-challenged. Sam Sullivan has too much baggage, ditto Stephanie Cadieux. Michelle Stilwell and Todd Stone are possibilities but again, not likely to set the world on fire.  

NorthReport

Today's Vancouver Sun headline on their front page was about Kevin Falcon. Do folks really think that was just a coincidence? 

quizzical

bekayne wrote:
NorthReport wrote:
I agree that Christy is done, Kevin Falcon anyone? He has been patiently waiting for this moment. Expect to see his name surface in the not too distant future.

She has a seat; he doesn't.

and here he is.....

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/voters-punished-b-c-liberals-for-t...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
The Liberals control Elections BC

Elections BC's logo literally says right on it "A non-partisan Office of the Legislature".

Unless you're floating some kind of "deep state" theory, or some Dale Gribble silliness.

NorthReport

Meanwhile back in the real world.....

NorthReport

The NDP has asked for a recount in 3 Liberal won seats. What's the criteria to have a recount?

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Meanwhile back in the real world.....

Ah.  Right... follow the money.  The rooster crows at midnight.

Seriously, though, NorthReport, if you think that Elections BC does the bidding of Christy Clark, show us.  Bring something.

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