BC May 9, 2017 Election Results and Comments

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NorthReport

The one-percenters are unhappy.

B.C.’s election: the perils of proportional representation

https://www.therecord.com/opinion-story/7323136-b-c-s-election-the-peril...

NorthReport

As if the Liberals would ever give up the government reigns willingly.

Vaughn Palmer: B.C. Liberals odds of deal with Greens fading fast

 

But then came a series of withering blasts at the Liberals that called into question his ability to work with them on Big Ticket items.

On the Liberal decision to proceed with construction of a hydroelectric dam at Site C on the Peace River. “We believe that Site C is reckless from an economic perspective. It’s essentially trying to deliver taxpayer-subsidized power to a non-existent LNG industry.”

On the carbon tax and climate action plans: “The B.C. Liberal position … frankly, they don’t have a climate position.”

On the proposed twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline: “We know that there is no way of cleaning up diluted bitumen in coastal waters. It is utterly irresponsible of the B.C. government to claim that they have met five conditions when they never articulated what those conditions were. It was pure political spin by Ms. Clark to say that our conditions are suddenly met. They were never met because they never had conditions.”

On campaign finance reform: “The B.C. Liberal approach was to strike a committee much akin to … have a plan to develop a plan to come up with a plan. They would kind of kick that can down the road.”

Weaver scoffed at Liberal expectations that the final count would flip the result in their favour in the close call riding of Courtenay-Comox.

“That’s highly unlikely in light of the fact that absentee ballots typically are people like students who are voting at other universities or out of town. The B.C. NDP won the absentee ballot there in the last election despite the fact that the Liberals won the seat.”

Weaver was still building up a head of steam against the Liberals at the media conference when one of his staffers called “time” and yanked him away, the first time I have seen any one doing that to the big-talking Green leader.

So, to recap, the Liberals are reckless and irresponsible, their plans bogus to non-existent, their hopes unfounded.

Not much of a basis for establishing a working relationship, particularly given the outreach to the Greens from the other side of the political spectrum.

--------------------------

This while a quintet of green-tinged NDP veterans — Jim Beattie, Corky Evans, Tom Perry, Joan Sawicki and Dave Zirnhelt — issued an open letter calling on their party to enter into a formal coalition with the Greens.

In short, as the week ended, the conditions seemed to be falling into place for a Green-NDP alliance, if not a full-blown Weaver-Horgan coalition government.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-b-c-liberals-od...

NorthReport

The key is to get big money out of politcs so that we can remove the one percenters stranglehold on our societies. Will it ever happen? 

NorthReport

I'm wondering how accurate this actually is.

Oh, what a tangled web weaves Weaver

Green economics? Mark Milke in the Calgary Herald noted that “it might be premature to put away the hard hats in forestry, mining, oil and gas. Jock Finlayson, chief policy officer for the Business Council of B.C., noted just last month that B.C.’s entire clean technology sector – the ‘new economy’ – has only the value of a single B.C. forestry company, Canfor.’’

 

- See more at: http://www.nsnews.com/opinion/columnists/lautens-oh-what-a-tangled-web-w...

http://www.nsnews.com/opinion/columnists/lautens-oh-what-a-tangled-web-w...

NorthReport

B.C. Liberals Post Yet Another Year Of Staggering Political Donations

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/dermodtravis/bc-liberals-political-donation...

Martin N.

NorthReport wrote:

I'm wondering how accurate this actually is.

Oh, what a tangled web weaves Weaver

Green economics? Mark Milke in the Calgary Herald noted that “it might be premature to put away the hard hats in forestry, mining, oil and gas. Jock Finlayson, chief policy officer for the Business Council of B.C., noted just last month that B.C.’s entire clean technology sector – the ‘new economy’ – has only the value of a single B.C. forestry company, Canfor.’’

 

- See more at: http://www.nsnews.com/opinion/columnists/lautens-oh-what-a-tangled-web-w...

http://www.nsnews.com/opinion/columnists/lautens-oh-what-a-tangled-web-w...

I'm wondering the same thing about all your selections.

NorthReport

The one thing Christy Clark and John Horgan should agree upon

http://www.straight.com/news/912586/martyn-brown-one-thing-christy-clark...

NorthReport

Bingo!

Martyn Brown: Why John Horgan is really in the driver's seat

Horgan must play the long game

So far, Weaver has played his hand pretty, darn well. If anything, he has made both Clark and Horgan look a bit desperate.

I suspect both of those leaders’ negotiating teams have already surrendered far more than they should or need to, to curry the Greens’ favour, given how the game is likely to play out.

Yet in a sense, Horgan can’t lose. At least not for long. Not if he plays his cards right.

He did better than most expected in coming as close as he did to winning, and he might yet come out on top after all the dust settles, with the Greens’ support.

So long as he doesn’t hand Clark a winning election issue, by siding with Weaver on his antidemocratic push for PR without a prior vote of public approval, he should not fear another quick election brought about by the Greens’ intransigence.

In poker, players make stupid mistakes in their lust for the jackpot. Horgan cannot allow his good judgement to be blinded by the gold that glitters on the negotiating table. The power that looks ripe for the taking is not worth any compromise, at any long-term cost.

Clark’s knock against Horgan in the election was that he is supposedly “weak”. It is the one quality he cannot afford to inadvertently convey.

He can dispel that charge in a big way by standing strong and by holding true to his party’s principles and policies, in a determined and collegial effort to earn the Greens’ support in a minority government situation. He can’t afford to cave on his party’s promised referendum on proportional representation, prior to its adoption.

He cannot allow himself to be terrorized by Weaver’s use of the Liberals as a tactical foil to convince him to effectively throw in the towel and give the Greens more than smart play dictates.

Sure, Horgan wants to be premier and the NDP wants to form the government. But whether they want to admit it to themselves or not, all parties are already in a protracted war that only the Greens hope both the NDP and Liberals will lose by serving up pyrrhic victories.

Of all the leaders at the bargaining table, Horgan should feel the least pressured. Whether he wins this round or not, he is already strategically well-situated to fight and win the next one.

I expect he and Weaver both understand that.

If the opportunity for an NDP minority government still exists after all the votes are counted, I will be shocked if they both do not happily embrace it.

Because for the NDP and the Green party alike, it is obviously the best play.

Both in terms of what they could accomplish together for our province, and in best positioning themselves to fight the next election, whenever that might be. 

 

http://www.straight.com/news/912941/martyn-brown-why-john-horgan-really-...

NorthReport

Canadian Speculators, Not Foreign Money, Are Driving up Home Prices

And our political leaders are doing little to stop them.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/05/20/Canadian-Speculators-Not-Foreign-Money/

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
The common wisdom in Vancouver — and increasingly Toronto — is that the majority of these speculators come from overseas. Yet recent housing data suggests many, if not most, speculators may be Canadian.

That's some pretty un-confident language.  They're saying that "many" (i.e. less than half) "if not most" (perhaps more than half) "may" be Canadian.

Thing is, we kind of expect Canadians to buy homes in Canada -- even if only as an investment -- more than we expect non-Canadians to.

Quote:
Developers argue that we have a supply problem. Prices are so high because there aren’t enough properties on the market. But roughly one unit of housing was built for every person projected to move to Metro Vancouver in 2016. The region may be overbuilding by 50 per cent, according to the real estate news site Better Dwelling.

Yet home prices keep rising. “We suspect that buyers motivated by expectations of capital gains have played a prominent role,” RBC Royal Bank notes. Or in other words, speculators are outbidding the people who are actually looking for homes.

Supply-and-demand suggests that if the prices keep rising, then there are not, in fact, enough new homes.  A surplus of some good doesn't result in a higher price for that good.

NorthReport

So what?   

BC Green Party sought cash from developer, despite calling for campaign finance reform

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-green-party-so...

NorthReport

Narrow window exists for John Horgan to become premier

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/rob-shaw-narrow-window-exists-for-...

Martin N.

Of all the leaders at the bargaining table, Horgan should feel the least pressured. Whether he wins this round or not, he is already strategically well-situated to fight and win the next one.

Against Christy Clark maybe but if her little paws can be pried off the levers of power, a Liberal party under a better leader will attract the disaffected Liberal vote.

Martin N.

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:

Yet home prices keep rising. “We suspect that buyers motivated by expectations of capital gains have played a prominent role,” RBC Royal Bank notes. Or in other words, speculators are outbidding the people who are actually looking for homes.

Supply-and-demand suggests that if the prices keep rising, then there are not, in fact, enough new homes.  A surplus of some good doesn't result in a higher price for that good.

Home prices will keep rising until they don't. As long as interest rates remain low, the game is on but when interest rates rise, there will be blood in the streets. A 'home', as opposed to 'real estate' is an emotional, not a pragmatic purchase to most individuals.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Home prices will keep rising until they don't.

Again, they'll keep rising if there aren't enough of them.  Build 30,000,000 new homes in BC and they'll sell for pennies.  The sellers will be delighted to accept anything they can get for them.

Quote:
A 'home', as opposed to 'real estate' is an emotional, not a pragmatic purchase to most individuals.

Of course.  And those emotions may drive up the cost of a home near a school, or with a view of the ocean, or right on a transit line, or whatever.  I'm just saying that if BC is building as many new homes as there are new buyers, the price shouldn't be increasing.  If it keeps going up then there's either insufficient supply of them or greater-than-anticipated demand for them.

To put it another way:  if there's a surplus of homes that cost $400k, and some speculator buys one and then "flips" it on the market for $600k, why would anyone pay that $600k instead of just buying one of the many, many $400k homes??  My only point was that maybe there ISN'T really enough of them.

 

NorthReport

B.C. Greens not looking so chaste after columnist reveals party asked a developer for $30,000

http://www.straight.com/news/913006/bc-greens-not-looking-so-chaste-afte...

Martin N.

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:

 

To put it another way:  if there's a surplus of homes that cost $400k, and some speculator buys one and then "flips" it on the market for $600k, why would anyone pay that $600k instead of just buying one of the many, many $400k homes??  My only point was that maybe there ISN'T really enough of them.

 

Exactly. Developers are building for maximum leverage, not for buyers' expectations and that dichotomy forces buyers into homes that are not their first choice. If developable land is dedicated to small homes on small lots at a reasonable price, they will be immediately sold until the demand for starter homes is sated. Instead, developers build apartments with up sell features, forcing buyers to purchase 'bells and whistles' and then the developers state there is 'adequate' supply'.

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

So this week starting tomorrow, we have the Comox recount, the Absentee Ballots count, and John Horgan has how long is it again to become Premier, before Judy Guichon forces another election upon us? And guess who appointed her LG, eh!  

cco

Who should appoint the LG?

No, really, I'm curious. I don't like the monarchy one bit, and I'd be happy to do away with vestigial positions like the LG if a good alternative were proposed. Québec's LG went to prison for fraud not too long ago, in fact, having unsuccessfully claimed "royal immunity" from prosecution. But Paul Martin appointed Michaëlle Jean GG, and she didn't seem to take that into account when she prorogued to keep Harper in power. GGs and LGs seem far more likely to defer to the current government than to the people who appointed them. (Which is also, of course, sometimes a problem.)

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
And guess who appointed her LG, eh! 

The Governor General of Canada?

Did I get it right?

NorthReport

If the NDP and the Greens ever hope to form governments in the future, this is the number one issue that is preventing them from doing so. If they don't immediately smash the stranglehold that big money has on the electoral process, and level the playing field, both these parties will be relegated to the political wilderness forever. and don't believe one single solitary word the Premier says on the subject.

Getting ‘big money’ out of politics

http://www.revelstokereview.com/opinion/getting-big-money-out-of-politics/

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

OK, that's super.

But aren't you going to tell us who appointed Judy Guichon?

NorthReport

By far the best analysis of the current BC political situation. Too bad we rarely if ever see this kind of political coverage in our right-wing mainstream press.

http://www.straight.com/news/912941/martyn-brown-why-john-horgan-really-...

 

jas

Might it not also be better to let CC win her razor-thin majority this time and watch the party self-destruct? Also, the books don't show it but independent observers are warning that the province is in dire financial shape. Any tipping of the balance, such as a change to interest rates, and the ka-ka hits the fan. Better to let the Libs wear it fully than have to clean up their mess. Yes?

NorthReport

No.

 

NorthReport

Take note of who won the Courtenay-Comox riding at least so far, and then notice whose picture goes first in the article. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-s-provincial-election...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

The presumed loser's?

NorthReport
NorthReport

Evacuation order issued for 11 properties near Oliver B.C.

Tinhorn Creek burst its banks sending debris downstream, diverting creek and blocking culverts

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tinhorn-creek-evacuation-...

NorthReport

Reviewing things that went wrong for B.C. parties in recent campaign

 

http://www.straight.com/news/912881/dermod-travis-reviewing-things-went-...

NorthReport

At least I can understand why the Greens are happier in 2017, but after the Adrian Dix disaster in 2013, this is as good as it gets for the NDP?

Party / 2013 / 2017 / Difference

Lib / 44.14% / 40.84% / Down 3.30%

NDP / 39.71% / 39.86% / Up 0.15%

Grns / 8.13% / 16.75% / Up 8.62%

 

NorthReport

In other words if the NDP and the Greens combine to form a majority government it's game over for Clark, and she must resign. Over to you Andrew Weaver. Either you keep Christy Clark in office or you don't. 

Sorting out who will govern B.C. after all the ballots are counted

However, some guiding constitutional principles need to be understood, and perhaps the most important one is surprisingly seldom mentioned: that the election process is not over until a government wins a vote of confidence in the legislature. This is because election night only decides who fills the seats in the legislature, and those MLAs then decide who forms the government.

In one sense, it does not matter how long a government waits to meet the legislature or to hold its first vote of confidence. No new election should be called if the government loses that first vote of confidence, as long as another party has a realistic chance of forging a majority. The lieutenant-governor has a duty to refuse the call for fresh elections if another party leader can win enough support in the legislature to govern.

The other foundational rule is that a party that can command a majority in the legislature has a right to govern. The rule is crystal clear when an opposition party can form a majority: the premier must tender his or her resignation when the election results become clear. That premier only remains in office as a caretaker until the new premier is ready to take over.

With that rule in mind, there is no logical reason why a premier should not also resign if opposition leaders sign a document committing their parties to work together.

If parties, with a majority of the newly elected members between them, make it publicly and formally clear that a viable alternative government is ready to assume office, there is no doubt that a new government can be formed with a majority in the legislature.

While a premier has a general right to remain in office and to meet the new legislature, that right is trumped by the right of another party with a majority to form the government.

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/heard-sorting-out-who-will-g...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Has anyone seen any changes yet?

Final count voting results will be refreshed at 10 a.m., noon, 2 p.m., and 5 p.m.

NorthReport

 

Good luck on that one. Why do I keep getting the feelin' the BC NDP will get screwed over once again!

Pressure builds on NDP and B.C. Greens to work together in legislature

A coalition of civil-society organizations does not want B.C. Green Leader Andrew Weaver to keep Premier Christy Clark in power.

On Tuesday (May 23), they'll hold a news conference at the B.C. legislature calling on the B.C. Greens and NDP to agree to work together on "shared values and platform commitments".

The groups include Leadnow, the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs, the B.C. Health Coalition, Stand.earth, Force of Nature, One Cowichan, and the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of B.C. 

The announcement of a news conference comes as Elections B.C. has begun counting absentee ballots that could determine if either the B.C. Liberals or the NDP win a majority of seats in the legislature.

http://www.straight.com/news/913291/pressure-builds-ndp-and-bc-greens-wo...

Basement Dweller

NDP by 13 votes in Courtney-Comox.

Debater

Recount result in Courtenay-Comox riding has NDP gaining ground. Lead extended to 13 votes from 9. Absentee votes yet to be counted

https://twitter.com/Kendall_Hanson/status/866780519140175872

Basement Dweller

Biggest change in a close race, so far:

Richmond-Queensborough where the Liberal margin has already decreased from 263 to 181 votes. Possible recount after absentee ballots are done?

quizzical

great news so far....

 

josh
jerrym

Basement Dweller wrote:

Biggest change in a close race, so far:

Richmond-Queensborough where the Liberal margin has already decreased from 263 to 181 votes. Possible recount after absentee ballots are done?

At 5:00 PM Richmond-Queensbourough Liberal lead down to 116 votes from 263 votes at start of count. 

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

Provincial Popular vote Liberals 40.71% NDP 40.02%

 

nicky

The NDP seems to be reaping a consistent margin in the absentee votes. Thye are in the hunt for Coquitlam Burke Mt ( Libs now up by 268) and Richmond Quenesborough (libs ahead by only 116 , down from 260 election night).

Only about 1/3 of absentees have been counted . if NDp gains one of these seats it will tie the Libs at 42 ech. Both wd make it 43 -41.

What's more Lib popular vote lead is down to 13,000 from 18,000 on election night so there is some prospect of getting the most votes as well as seats.

Basement Dweller

No absentee ballot results have been reported for Coquitlam Burke Mt. Watch that one.

NorthReport
bekayne

Basement Dweller wrote:

No absentee ballot results have been reported for Coquitlam Burke Mt. Watch that one.

The lead was 170 on May 10:

https://www.webcitation.org/6qN5s3qKe

NorthReport

Actually it had changed to 268 so nothing has moved so far.

http://www.tricitynews.com/news/update-ndp-denied-recount-in-coquitlam-b...

 

Basement Dweller

There was an error discovered right after election day.

NorthReport

So the Greens wanted corporate donations. So what? Yes let's get big money out of politics but until we have that level playing field who can fault the Greens for going after some? 

At what point does Compromise let Hypocrisy rule?

 

But please, let’s not pretend that doing one thing that is diametrically opposite to what was promised is somehow "compromise". 

It is hypocrisy. Pure and simple.

And the truth is, some hypocrisies are simply worse than others.

The worst of all them would be for the B.C. Green party to essentially sell its soul for a "quick win" on proportional representation, in partnership with a government and a party that they well know deserves to be consigned to rot fo a while in purgatory.

As I have been arguing since the election, the Greens should have no truck or trade with the Clark government, or with the B.C. Liberal agenda that is so abjectly at odds with the Greens’ platform and with their ostensible raison d'être.

And close behind on that score would be if the NDP were to ever drink the Greens’ Kool-Aid on its preferred model for advancing PR.

It is demonstrably undemocratic and hypocritical beyond belief.

Making that wrong choice would only serve to compromise Horgan and his party in an unconscionsable way that is untenable and also politically shortsighted.

On that point, as on the need for a sensible alliance in the form of a time-limited NDP-Green partnership, the parties should compromise as warranted.

But not to the extent of letting hypocrisy rule. 

 

http://www.straight.com/news/913336/martyn-brown-what-point-does-comprom...

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