BC May 9, 2017 Election Results and Comments

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NorthReport
jerrym

As of 5:00 PM yesterday, the NDP lead in Maple Rdige-Mission increased from 120 votes to 166 votes. 

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

 

ghoris

NorthReport wrote:

Did Mark Marissen cost Clark her majority?

http://www.vancourier.com/opinion/how-christy-clark-lost-metro-vancouver...

I'm pretty sure Clark cost Clark her majority.

bekayne
bekayne

Basement Dweller wrote:

Biggest change in a close race, so far:

Richmond-Queensborough where the Liberal margin has already decreased from 263 to 181 votes. Possible recount after absentee ballots are done?

Now complete. Liberals by 124.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05...

ghoris

I have to think Courtenay-Comox is going to be settled by judicial recount. Possibly Coquitlam-Burke Mountain as well (still being counted - Liberals currently up by 215). Unless there were some major shenanigans, I don't see a judicial recount overturning a 124-vote margin in Richmond-Queensborough.

jerrym

Maple Ridge-Mission is still in progress but the NDP lead has increased from 120 votes to 280 votes.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

 

Debater

ghoris wrote:

I have to think Courtenay-Comox is going to be settled by judicial recount. Possibly Coquitlam-Burke Mountain as well (still being counted - Liberals currently up by 215). Unless there were some major shenanigans, I don't see a judicial recount overturning a 124-vote margin in Richmond-Queensborough.

If there is a tie after the judicial recount, it goes to a by-election:

https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/867105003584049152

https://twitter.com/robshaw_vansun/status/867103579978387456

jerrym

At 5:00 PM the Courtenay-Comox vote count is still in progress with a 3 vote margin for the Liberals.

In the popular vote, the difference between the Liberals and NDP has shrunk to 3,201 votes provincially (40.40% Liberals to 40.24% NDP).

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

 

jerrym

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain is now complete with the Liberals holding a 87 vote lead. 

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

 

Basement Dweller

NDP is leading by 101 votes in Courtney-Comox.

quizzical

jerrym wrote:

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain is now complete with the Liberals holding a 87 vote lead. 

">http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

will there be a judical recount now of the rest?

 

NorthReport

Does the difference in votes have to be larger than 1 in 500 of the total votes cast for a judical recount?

In other words if 10,000 votes were cast the difference has to be more than 20 votes for a recount?

NorthReport

The Greens had 16.85% of the vote which represents 14.7 seats  

The Liberals had 40.38% of the vote which represents 35.1 seats

The NDP had 40.25% of the vote which represents 35 seats.

Greens, NDP Would Sacrifice Legitimacy By Imposing Proportional Representation

Changing voting system without a referendum ‘illegitimate and insulting.’

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/05/23/Proportional-Representation-Would-...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Vote verdict in Comox will clear political picture

 

If the count continues to favour the NDP, the Liberals would be one short of a majority and the New Democrats would have a plausible shot at forming government if they could secure an alliance with the Greens.

In anticipation of that opportunity, eight activist groups gathered on the front steps of the legislature Tuesday to urge the formation of an NDP-Green partnership.

Listening attentively and then receiving a petition to that effect were MLAs-elect Carole James of the NDP and Sonia Furstenau of the Greens.

As both are members of their parties’ respective negotiating teams, one had to think that their presence confirmed the budding romance between Greens and New Democrats.

Several members of the press gallery, taking a break from repeatedly refreshing the Elections B.C. website for updates on the vote count, turned out for the presentation as well.

But the main reason for attendance was the possibility that we were getting a preview of the first speech from the throne of a Horgan-Weaver government.

Calls from the various groups ranged from increased funding for child care to a halt to construction of the hydroelectric dam at Site C on the Peace River.

If the New Democrats do manage to form a government with a helping hand from the Greens, the outcome would, in a roundabout way, confirm the rule of thumb about the NDP never forming government without a split among the centre-right parties.

The prospect of a centre-right split went largely unnoticed during Election 2017. The leaderless B.C. Conservatives fielded only 10 candidates, mostly in ridings where they were not a factor.

However, as the count was being finalized Tuesday, it was apparent that the Conservatives may have influenced the outcome in two ridings and made a close call of a third.

In Richmond-Queensborough the almost 700 votes taken by Conservative Kay Hale — who had previously run for office as a New Democrat — contributed to a close call for B.C. Liberal Jas Johal. He won by just 134 votes over New Democrat Aman Singh.

Conservative Trevor Hamilton took more than 900 votes in Maple Ridge-Mission. With the count not yet finalized, New Democrat Bob D’Eith led two-term Liberal incumbent Marc Dalton by fewer than 400 votes.

Then there was battleground Courtenay-Comox. In a riding where the Liberals briefly clung to a three-vote lead Tuesday, Conservative Leah Catherine McCulloch racked up more than 2,000 votes and counting.

Under fire from the Liberals for her upstart candidacy she’s already laid claim to spoiler status.

“They think the Liberals would have won the riding if there hadn’t been a Conservative candidate on the ballot,” she told Mike Smyth of the Province last week. “They’re probably right, but they have only themselves to blame, not me.”

There’ll be plenty of blame to go around if the Liberals fail to hang on to a seat they rated as relatively secure at the outset of the campaign. But as the day ended Tuesday, they were still hoping to get back into the lead and preserve an outside shot at majority government.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-vote-verdict-in...

NorthReport

Here are some close seats that the NDP lost and the difference in votes:

Coquitlam Burke Mountain 87 votes

Richmond Queensborough 134 votes

Vancouver False Creek 406 votes

 

 

 

NorthReport

When it becomes clear Clark did not get a majority the political knives will come out and the Liberals will change leadership

http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/12/the-simi-sara-show-how-much-time-does-chr...

NorthReport

I suppose we all must have missed the CBC/Vancouver Sun/CKNW/Global/CTV/Globe & Mail headlines that said the NDP starts to pull away in Courtenay-Comox, which will lead to a Clark Liberal failure to obtain a majority government in BC

josh

NorthReport wrote:

I suppose we all must have missed the CBC/Vancouver Sun/CKNW/Global/CTV/Globe & Mail headlines that said the NDP starts to pull away in Courtenay-Comox, which will lead to a Clark Liberal failure to obtain a majority government in BC

101 vote lead with 900 or so to be counted.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-election-final-count-keeps-going-1.4128494

 

jerrym

As of 10 AM, the vote difference between the Liberals and NDP provincially is 1,723, giving the Liberals 40.36% and the NDP 40.27%.

ghoris

NorthReport wrote:

Does the difference in votes have to be larger than 1 in 500 of the total votes cast for a judical recount?

In other words if 10,000 votes were cast the difference has to be more than 20 votes for a recount?

I think you meant to say if the difference is *less* than 1/500 of the votes cast (or 20 votes in your example), but you are correct. If the difference is less than 1/500th of the votes cast, the Returning Officer *must* apply for a judicial recount - i.e. it's essentially automatic. If the margin is greater than 1/500th of the votes cast, anyone may still apply for a judicial recount but they must have evidence that the count was not done correctly or that ballots were rejected that ought to have been accepted (or vice versa), etc. If, however, the Court determines on a review of the evidence and the final count reconciliation that a judicial recount would not change the result, it can declare the final result to be the results declared at the final count.

That's a long way of saying that the NDP could request judicial recounts in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain and Richmond-Queensborough, but again they'd have to be able to show evidence that either the count was not done correctly or that a large number of votes were (potentially) incorrectly accepted or rejected - enough to potentially change the result. That all depends on things like the number of rejected ballots and how close the margin is relative to the total votes cast. 

Unlikely in my view, but possible.

Policywonk

It looks like the count is done and the NDP won Courtenay-Comox by 148 votes. We have a hung legislature unless a judicial recount changes anything. And the gap is too wide anywhere I think.

 

 

Basement Dweller

NDP leads by 148 votes in Courtney-Comox. I'm now officially declaring a minority government. :) Which government? I don't know.

NorthReport

If the NDP win by 58 votes or more there will be no automatic judicial recount in Courtneay-Comox

NorthReport

Is it true that Weaver used to be a card-carrying member of you got it, the BC Liberals?

Any way you slice it, 43 + 3 beats 41.

Bye, bye BC NDP

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Is it true that Weaver used to be a card-carrying member of you got it, the BC Liberals?

Bye, bye BC NDP

Bye Bye Weaver as Leader of the Greens. The vast majority of Green members and supporters would prefer an NDP minority or a coalition with the NDP. 

NorthReport

Since when do Party Leaders listen to their members after the election is over?

quizzical

Policywonk wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Is it true that Weaver used to be a card-carrying member of you got it, the BC Liberals?

Bye, bye BC NDP

Bye Bye Weaver as Leader of the Greens. The vast majority of Green members and supporters would prefer an NDP minority or a coalition with the NDP. 

i'd think the other 2 GP MLAs would have none of it if Weaver decided to support BC Libs.

at least if they don't they've exposed themselves to naive GP voters and the GP is toast.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Is it true that Weaver used to be a card-carrying member of you got it, the BC Liberals?

Any way you slice it, 43 + 3 beats 41.

Bye, bye BC NDP

41 plus 3 also beats 43. In any case we may be jumping the gun. I thought the numbers were a bit light; apparently the count of the absentee ballots is only 75% complete. Doesn't look good for the Liberals though. 

 

jerrym

I suspect there will be too much pressure on the Greens to support the NDP by their supporters to prevent them siding with the Liberals. That pressure is being heard with eight activist groups demonstrating on Victoria's Parliament Building steps in front of the NDP's Carole James and the Green's Sonia Furstenau, who are negotiating a possible agreement on a government.

But don't expect Christy to not try every trick in the book to stay in power. She did that when she ran for president of student council at SFU.

The lieutenant governor can also play an important role in determining who rules as he did in 1952 election.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Is it true that Weaver used to be a card-carrying member of you got it, the BC Liberals?

Any way you slice it, 43 + 3 beats 41.

Bye, bye BC NDP

41 plus 3 also beats 43. In any case we may be jumping the gun. I thought the numbers were a bit light; apparently the count of the absentee ballots is only 75% complete. Doesn't look good for the Liberals though. 

 

NorthReport

Policywonk,

Strange in that there did not appear to be any change in the vote totals for Courtenay-Comox in today's 2 PM update at Elections BC

How could that be?

I'm thinking 2 possibilities:

1 - the vote count is over but it still says "In Progress"

2 - they are rigging the vote so that the Liberals win a majority (the stakes are big enough).

 

 

quizzical

how about a 3rd where they're almost done and why report?

ghoris

NorthReport wrote:

Policywonk,

Strange in that there did not appear to be any change in the vote totals for Courtenay-Comox in today's 2 PM update at Elections BC

How could that be?

I'm thinking 2 possibilities:

1 - the vote count is over but it still says "In Progress"

2 - they are rigging the vote so that the Liberals win a majority (the stakes are big enough).

For #2 to be correct, all the NDP scrutineers would have to be paid off (or maybe dumped in the Salish Sea with cement overshoes) to cover up the vote-rigging. Entirely possible - I mean we all know that Elections BC is just an arm of the Liberal Party, after all.

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
I suspect there will be too much pressure on the Greens to support the NDP by their supporters to prevent them siding with the Liberals. That pressure is being heard with eight activist groups demonstrating on Victoria's Parliament Building steps in front of the NDP's Carole James and the Green's Sonia Furstenau, who are negotiating a possible agreement on a government.

But don't expect Christy to not try every trick in the book to stay in power. She did that when she ran for president of student council at SFU.

Let her try. She doesn't have a firm grip on the Ledge, and if any Liberal seats become vacant and the NDP wins (which the NDP tends to do well in by-elections) then people will see her desperate ways and respond accordingly at the ballot box.

brookmere

jerrym wrote:
I suspect there will be too much pressure on the Greens to support the NDP by their supporters to prevent them siding with the Liberals.

Oh they're not going to formally support the Liberals. That would lead to a split in the party and oblivion in the next election which could come at any time.

But suppose Weaver says neither the Liberals nor NDP are willing to go far enough and he will "stick to his principles" and not make any deals. Then you get a Liberal government and the Greens can  decide how to vote on a bill by bill (wink, nudge) basis.

NorthReport

brookmere,

That is precisely what is going to happen now.

The right-wingers Liberal Clark & former Liberal Weaver know the drill,

meanwhile the pathetic and totally out of the loop NDP will go but, but, but.............what about us. 

Do people seriously think for one second former Liberal Weaver is going to let Horgan have a say in anything ?

Policywonk

ghoris wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Policywonk,

Strange in that there did not appear to be any change in the vote totals for Courtenay-Comox in today's 2 PM update at Elections BC

How could that be?

I'm thinking 2 possibilities:

1 - the vote count is over but it still says "In Progress"

2 - they are rigging the vote so that the Liberals win a majority (the stakes are big enough).

For #2 to be correct, all the NDP scrutineers would have to be paid off (or maybe dumped in the Salish Sea with cement overshoes) to cover up the vote-rigging. Entirely possible - I mean we all know that Elections BC is just an arm of the Liberal Party, after all.

They didn't have an update at 2:00 pm yesterday either. In any case the final margin was 189 votes so there will be no judicial recount and there will be a minority.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

ghoris wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Policywonk,

Strange in that there did not appear to be any change in the vote totals for Courtenay-Comox in today's 2 PM update at Elections BC

How could that be?

I'm thinking 2 possibilities:

1 - the vote count is over but it still says "In Progress"

2 - they are rigging the vote so that the Liberals win a majority (the stakes are big enough).

For #2 to be correct, all the NDP scrutineers would have to be paid off (or maybe dumped in the Salish Sea with cement overshoes) to cover up the vote-rigging. Entirely possible - I mean we all know that Elections BC is just an arm of the Liberal Party, after all.

Here is picture of the winner and former MP, Catherine Bell, after Catherine emerged from being a scrutineeer in the count. We actually have a system that is extremely hard to scam because of scrutineers.

The main place for cheating is in seat redistribution. This time large NDP areas were hived off and put in with one of the safest NDP seats in the COUNTRY. Without the gerrymandering this riding would not have been close probably not even within a thousand votes.

jerrym

NDP win Courtenay-Comox by 189 votes. With all constituencies counts completed, the Liberals lead the NDP by 566 votes provincially (40.36% to 40.28%) - less than one vote per polling station provincially.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I think the numbers say they won by 1,566 votes or .08%; 796,672 to 795,106

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09...

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

brookmere,

That is precisely what is going to happen now.

The right-wingers Liberal Clark & former Liberal Weaver know the drill,

meanwhile the pathetic and totally out of the loop NDP will go but, but, but.............what about us. 

Do people seriously think for one second former Liberal Weaver is going to let Horgan have a say in anything ?

I think Weaver would commit political suicide on himself and his party if he allows Christy Clark and the BC Liberals to hang on to power. So I think Horgan will soon be Premier with the support of the Greens.

We should know in a week's time how politically savvy Weaver is.

NorthReport
jerrym

brookmere wrote:

jerrym wrote:
I suspect there will be too much pressure on the Greens to support the NDP by their supporters to prevent them siding with the Liberals.

Oh they're not going to formally support the Liberals. That would lead to a split in the party and oblivion in the next election which could come at any time.

But suppose Weaver says neither the Liberals nor NDP are willing to go far enough and he will "stick to his principles" and not make any deals. Then you get a Liberal government and the Greens can  decide how to vote on a bill by bill (wink, nudge) basis.

If they actively or passively support a Liberal government, they will lose a significant percentage of their voters in the next election, who are not NDPers, but want to get Christy and her policies out. They also are likely to lose their chance to get proportional representation, the fastest way to increase their number of MLAs. For Christy to give the Greens this would put the Liberals behind the eight ball, making it difficult to win the majorities that FPTP has repeatedly given them. 

ghoris

I presume at this point Clark is going to proceed with forming a government, appointing a new cabinet, etc. She will hold off meeting the legislature as long as she can. I think even if Weaver and Horgan strike some kind of deal, she will force them to defeat the Throne Speech in the Legislature (a la Ontario in 1985) and then recommend a dissolution to the LG. I suspect at that point the LG is going to want to see some kind of deal in writing between the NDP and Greens  (again, like the Liberal-NDP accord in Ontario) before she asks Horgan to try and form a government, although if I were advising her I would point out that the NDP got the same number of votes as the Liberals and arguably has just as much claim to a popular mandate.

The question is whether the Greens insist on a full-on coalition with Greens in cabinet (which Rae says in retrospect he wished he had done) or whether they agree to vote confidence and supply only in exchange for implementation of certain policies.

Rev Pesky

Perhaps the PR types would remind us at this point why it's a good thing that the party that 84% of voters did not want as government seems likely to be the party that decides who will govern.

JKR

Rev Pesky wrote:

Perhaps the PR types would remind us at this point why it's a good thing that the party that 84% of voters did not want as government seems likely to be the party that decides who will govern.

If the Greens are so abhorrent there's nothing to stop the BC NDP and BC Liberals from forming a government like the one in Germany between the CDU and SPD.

Would it be better if the BC Liberals had won a few hundred more votes and formed a phoney FPTP majority government because of vote-splitting between the Greens and NDP?

Most Green voters preferred the NDP over the Liberals so it is undemocratic that the Liberals almost formed a phoney FPTP majority government.

Aristotleded24

Rev Pesky wrote:

Perhaps the PR types would remind us at this point why it's a good thing that the party that 84% of voters did not want as government seems likely to be the party that decides who will govern.

NorthReport

I listened to a brief interview with Spector today where he stated that John Horgan does not appear to be the angry man painted by the mainstream press however my hunch was that this was just a Spector tactic he was using to scare the Liberals into moving closer to the Green Party goals so the Green Party can close the deal to keep Clark as Premier.

http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/16/bc-greens-negotiations-consultant-a-strat...

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