BC May 9, 2017 Election Results and Comments

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NorthReport

Clark has been put on the incentative plan whereby either she governs or bye, bye, therefore she will give away the store to the Greens to keep her job. 

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/clark-should-step-down-as-leader-i...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Martyn Brown's article is very good at explaining where we are at.  The article mentions that the Libs voted six months of supply before dissolving the legislature. If the Greens were to back the Liberals it might lead to large protests at the legislature. After all the Greens had two kinds of signs over here, one was the regular candidate sign and the other was Vote Change.  The Greater Victoria ridings alone  had over 70,000 NDP voters and around 65,000 Green voters. That is a sizable pool of potentially very pissed off voters without bussing people from up Island down to the Leg for a rally. If Clark tries to hang on in the face of a NDP Green agreement I expect there will be protests in the tens of thousands if not larger.

It should be an interesting ride. 

Convention holds that a government that may lack that confidence should be accorded the opportunity to dispel that notion and to demonstrate the opposite, by way of a confidence vote.

But what if 44 members or more of the 87-seat legislature make it clear to the lieutenant-governor that they have confidence in a mutually acceptable alternative, and have no confidence in the current government?

From that moment on, the government lacks legitimacy.

http://www.straight.com/news/915821/martyn-brown-regal-resolution-respon...

NorthReport

This is probably already a done deal which will very soon be apparent, and of course the message will be loud and clear - once again for close to 20 years now it's bye, bye to BC's constant political losers - the  BC NDP.

Here's the scenario for B.C. Green Leader Andrew Weaver keeping Christy Clark in the premier's office

 

http://www.straight.com/news/915871/heres-scenario-bc-green-leader-andre...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

North Report you just posted to the same article that I posted to just above yours. Did you read the article becasue I am not sure that it implies anywhere that the NDP are losers or that they are about to dissappear? In fact it implies they are likely to form government.

Rev Pesky

From JKR;

If the Greens are so abhorrent there's nothing to stop the BC NDP and BC Liberals from forming a government like the one in Germany between the CDU and SPD.

I didn't say, nor even imply, that the Greens are abhorrent. All I was doing is what's done all the time by PR types, and presented the vote as a negative. As in, 60% of voters didn't want party X to form the government. I merely pointed out, using that specific framework, that 84% of voters didn't want the Greens as government.

​However, what you suggest, a possible coalition between the NDP and the Liberals may not be that impossible. I doubt  very much it would be touted out in the open, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see neither of those two parties allow the Greens to decide who will form the government. In other words the NDP will allow the Liberals to govern for a while, at least until their war chest is built up a bit, marginalize the Greens, and then pick on opportune moment to overturn the government in the hopes of a new election.

It may be a small possibility, but it is a possibility...

melovesproles

If Weaver props up Christie Clark, he murders the Green Party and becomes the next Nick Clegg.  He doesn't seem stupid but I guess we'll find out. 

I hope the NDP doesn't take their rhetoric on a necessary referendum for Proportional Rep that seriously because it's well past time we started implementing at least a limited form of it.  No more fake majority governments.  It's going to take a more competent politician than we've had here but hopefully Horgan and Weaver are up for the transition.

melovesproles

As in, 60% of voters didn't want party X to form the government. I merely pointed out, using that specific framework, that 84% of voters didn't want the Greens as government.

They wouldn't be forming a fake majority government.  They would be working together with another party to reach a consensus on how to govern.  What's the difficult part of that for you to grasp?

Doug Woodard

We are about to take up the discussion of the royal prerogative where we left it on the federal scene when the Governor-General assented to Stephen Harper's wish to prorogue Parliament rather than face the House of Commons. There was a fairly popular (among constitutional experts) opinion expressed that the Governor-General could do nothing but follow the direction of the Prime Minister, along with Stephen Harper's vociferous but less widely approved statements that coalitions are illegitimate and the biggest minority should rule. 

I think myself that the Lieutenant-Governor might usefully allow the Liberal leader to try to form a government, while recalling the Legislature at the same time, and being prepared to allow an NDP-Green coalition, or an NDP minority government, to govern following a vote of no confidence in a Liberal government. I think it's the duty of the Lieutenant-Governor to stick her neck out to that extent at least. She would come as close as possible to allowing the Legislature to rule under the tradition of responsible government, while innovating to the minimum possible extent. To crumple like Michaelle Jean would I think be irresponsible. We will have to get over this uncertainty about the royal prerogative sooner or later, and the political balance and the climate of opinion in BC at present offer us an excellent opportunity.

To me, for the Lieutenant-Governor to move directly to appoint a premier supported by both the NDP and Green parties would be acceptable but a little more of a jump; that sort of thing might come later.

Your thoughts?

 

ating

NorthReport

Looks like Weaver might be about to sign on to a long-term agreement say 3-4 years with the Liberals. Who knew! I guess Horgan by playing games with PR blew it.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-leave-it-to-wea...

NorthReport

I doubt the LG will have much say in what Clark & Weaver are plotting.

Lieutenant-Governor speaks for first time about minority government (with video)

Judith Guichon could be asked to decide fate of province if Premier can’t win support of Greens.

https://www.eaglevalleynews.com/news/exclusive-lieutenant-governor-speak...

scott16

can someone from BC tell me if MLAs have pensions?

and if so How long do they need to serve to get one?

I believe this might play a factor in Weaver's Decision.

bekayne

scott16 wrote:

can someone from BC tell me if MLAs have pensions?

and if so How long do they need to serve to get one?

http://members.leg.bc.ca/mla-remuneration/employment-benefits.htm#mlapen...

JKR

Rev Pesky wrote:

I didn't say, nor even imply, that the Greens are abhorrent. All I was doing is what's done all the time by PR types, and presented the vote as a negative. As in, 60% of voters didn't want party X to form the government. I merely pointed out, using that specific framework, that 84% of voters didn't want the Greens as government.​

I think PR "types" present the vote as a negative when they want to show that a phoney FPTP majority government does not have adequate support to monopolize power. So if the BC Liberals had won one more seat the PR "types" would now be saying that 60% of voters didn't want the BC Liberals as a majority government.

A major flaw of FPTP is that it allows governments to be formed without regard to the majority of voters. People advocate for PR voting and/or preferential voting in order to remedy this problem inherent to FPTP. Unfortunately, FPTP only works properly in single elections between only two persons. That is just math. This is why the Conservative leadership election yesterday was done by preferential ballot not FPTP. If the Conservatives had used FPTP to elect their leader, Maxine Bernie would have won with less than a third of the vote and many would have felt that the majority were not supporting him. This is why the Conservatives are against using FPTP for their own elections. On the other hand, they completely support FPTP for federal elections because they benefit from vote-splitting on the left. They know that most Liberal voters prefer the NDP over the Conservatives and most NDP voters prefer the Liberals over the Conservatives.

The fact that preferential voting very often provides different results from FPTP voting shows that FPTP voting is plagued with the problem of vote-splitting whenever there are more than two candidates running. In Alberta the right is solving this problem by merging the PC Party and Wildrose Parties. The left prefers PR over forced mergers.

And this is why strategic voting is part and parcel of FPTP voting.

No amount of referendums will solve the problems inherent to FPTP voting. Only replacing FPTP will.

 

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

melovesproles wrote:

As in, 60% of voters didn't want party X to form the government. I merely pointed out, using that specific framework, that 84% of voters didn't want the Greens as government.

They wouldn't be forming a fake majority government.  They would be working together with another party to reach a consensus on how to govern.  What's the difficult part of that for you to grasp?

It is not difficult to grasp except if you live on Vancouver Island and you saw the Green's campaign. If they prop up the Liberals then a Vote for Change has quickly become a vote for a tweeked status quo. 

I think that Weaver is too well connected to the BC Liberals given that he used to be a member and he used his climate scientist credentials to help get them elected. Since then the party he supported, because of a single green initiative, has introduced Site C and allowed Kinder Morgan etc etc.  I'd call him a sell out but I view him as the Green's Ujjal Dosanjh, he is and always has been a Liberal despite leading a different party.

NorthReport
NorthReport

This is all a show for the fans.

There is no question in my mind that Weaver, on election nite, and actually long before that, decided he was not going to ever forget he was once a card-carrying Liberal. Clark will make enough Green concessions so that Weaver never ever forgets it.

Before election day yes it mattered what the voters wanted. Once however the votes are counted on election nite, it does not matter one iota what the voters want. Voters will now have zero say until the next election campaign. From now until the next election campaign the back room corporate brokers decide who gets what and when they get it.

Liberal or NDP Government? We Should Know By Wednesday

Polls show public wants NDP-Green alliance and referendum on electoral change.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2017/05/27/Liberal-NDP-Government-By-Wednesday/

 

melovesproles

It is not difficult to grasp except if you live on Vancouver Island and you saw the Green's campaign. If they prop up the Liberals then a Vote for Change has quickly become a vote for a tweeked status quo. 

I get that and I'm from Vancouver Island but living on the Sunshine Coast.   I do think that Weaver would fatally damage the Green brand if he propped up Christie Clark, making him our own homegrown Nick Clegg.  How he plays this is going to have long-lasting repercussions in how the Greens are viewed.  Irregardless of his personal politics, it really comes down to how committed he is to building a strong Green party and whether the Greens will follow him over a cliff.  Many of those who voted Green won't be back in the next election though if he does go that route.

I still don't see how supporter's of PR have anything to apologize for.  A phony majority where Clark can act with impunity is objectively worse than a situation where the Liberals have to compromise and the Greens have to take a hard look in the mirror and decide what they stand for because they will be held accountable for stabbing so many of their voters in the back. 

And this election really is yet another example of why we need Proportional Rep.  The idea that this was a rural/urban divide is bullshit as you know with your familiarity with Vancouver Island.  I live in a very rural riding and we went solidly NDP.  The complete joke that is BC Ferries won't be improved until the BC Liberals are removed just as Vancouver Island didn't get a real highway until there was an NDP government and the 'rural' ridings that did go BC Liberal this election were bought off with promised pork projects.  This type of buying off some regions and denying other regions infrastructure has been a mainstay of FPTP politics in this province since WAC Bennet and would be alleviated by Proportional Rep.

Which is why I don`t understand Horgan`s rhetoric about needing a referendum on fixing our broken electoral system.  We need a referenudum to fix something that anyone can see is broken?  That`s the wedge issue, he want to use to say why an agreement with the Greens was impossible? Like I said, I think Weaver would be setting his party on fire if he props up Clark but if Horgan wants to hand him a fire extinguisher, he seems to be on the right track.  I hope this is just negotiating noise and not the BC NDP incompentence that we`ve all become accustomed to.

 

 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
We need a referenudum to fix something that anyone can see is broken?

1.  not everyone sees it as broken

2.  assuming it's broken, there's more than one possible fix

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I would like to see as a compromise a sunset referendum after two elections. The NDP central office has always feared being outflanked on the left by a new party without the baggage of the NDP. There is no oxygen in the current system for new parties. I know I would be up for a new party not dominated by either the union heirarchy or Green capitalists. A place where activists from unions, environmental groups and social justice movemenets can duct tape a Red Green party together.

NorthReport

Since Glen Clark's leadership the BC NDP has been a party of political failure. It is long overdue to figuratively speakin' blow the BC NDP up, as they have not got the slightest idea how to win elections. Apart from the elected MLAs, everybody in any position whatsoever within the BC NDP needs to step down and move on we just don't want to hear from these bunch of political losers anymore. Enough is enough. What is the date time and location of the next Provincial Council meeting or is the current has-been group too terrified to share it with the members?

-----------------------------------------

B.C. election fiasco shows need for online voting: Watt

It is ridiculous in 2017 that voters in B.C. need to wait weeks for recounts and appeals. Canada needs to join other nations in developing a system for online voting.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2017/05/28/bc-election-fiasco...

NorthReport

Where are the resignations in the BC NDP that we all should have heard about on election nite?

NorthReport

What actually is a "collosal failure" is the LNG industry who have been smoking the citizens of BC for way to long. It's time for them to belly up to the bar or get lost.

https://www.lngindustry.com/liquefaction/25052017/lng-development-plan-a...

 

NorthReport
quizzical

good grief NR. my heart hurts for you.

NorthReport

Let's never forget the BC Liberals funded the Greens so what does that tell you where Weaver is going with this?

quizzical

i think we all knew it here NR.

it's only those who voted Green who didn't get the memo.

Pogo Pogo's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I would like to see as a compromise a sunset referendum after two elections. The NDP central office has always feared being outflanked on the left by a new party without the baggage of the NDP. There is no oxygen in the current system for new parties. I know I would be up for a new party not dominated by either the union heirarchy or Green capitalists. A place where activists from unions, environmental groups and social justice movemenets can duct tape a Red Green party together.

My view is instead of a sunset clause put in a staged implimentation.  Offer 4 extra seats, 2 for '604' and 2 for '250'.  I see a system where everyone votes for local candidates and also for the regional candidates with regional candidates elected by unused (losers and surplus votes) locally.  We wouldn't disrupt the local constituencies and people like me living in Richmond would have a vote that counted for once.  These four seats would give the Greens a chance at establishing themselves as a permanent fixture.

I also see the Green presence as supportive of the NDP.  Two of the three ridings they are competitive in are otherwise problematic for the NDP.  Oak Bay and Sannich&Islands have a strong Liberal bent and I would prefer these seats to be held by Greens than see-sawing between the NDP and Liberals (with the Liberals winning most of the time).  Making the NDP worry more about the environment is also not a bad thing.  Cowichan Malahat is a sad loss, though the Green MLA sounds okay - next time the local NDP will have to do a better job on all the HR stuff if they want to win.

melovesproles

1.  not everyone sees it as broken

Do you disagree that the ridings that were promised pork voted for the government and the ridings that didn`t are being charged exorbiant rates for basic infrastructure?  Or that BC has a long history of this or that FPTP encourages this kind of politics?   Please explain why this is how democracy should be functioning in this day and age.  It`s easy to avoid looking at a problem and then claim you can`t see it. 

Of course not everyone thinks this is a problem-the political parties that can cobble together fake majority governments with 40% of the vote think this is a great system which is why we`ll never get Proportional Rep from a Majority government-see Justin Trudeau.  But if they weren`t benefiting from this system and looked at it objectively I think they could see why FPTP doesn`t work-See Justin Trudeau before he had a Majority government. 

assuming it's broken, there's more than one possible fix

Which is why a referendum is doomed to fail-everyone has their own pet version of what they want to see implemented.  There are many models of functioning Proportional Representaion systems-I trust my electedl representatives to work out a solution that would suit BC far more than a referendum that is going to simplify and polarize the issue.  FPTP aderents have the US and the UK as their model of `functioning` democracy-also big fans of polarizing referendums..

 

NorthReport

Why Referenda — on Electoral Reform or Any Other Issue — Are Bad Democracy

Citizens’ assemblies offer a way to involve public in informed decisions.

Given this, it’s reasonable to suspect that Tieleman, a former NDP strategist, wants to retain a system that gives his party a shot at majority control.

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/05/26/Referenda-Are-Bad-Democracy/

NorthReport

Unfortunately they don't have a box that says extremely frustrated with the BC NDP for me to check off.

Tyee Poll: How Did You Cope With This Cliffhanger Election?

https://thetyee.ca/Polls/2017/05/26/Cliffhanger-Election-Cope/

NorthReport

It is going to be interesting to see Weaver by supporting the Liberals as it means the Greens support the Kinder Morgan pipeline and Site C and the non-existent LNG projects in Kitimat and Prince Rupert

Stockholm

I predict that within the next two days Weaver and Horgan will shake hands on a multi-year supply and confidence deal whereby the NDP forms government and the Greens commit to vote confidence and pass budgets and there will probably be a commitment for a referendum on PR very quickly while the new government is still in its honeymoon phase and almost certain to pass. I also predict that the new government's slim majority will quickly expand as Clark and a few other Liberal deadbeats will have no interest in sitting in Opposition and will resign their seats

jas

NorthReport wrote:

This is all a show for the fans.

There is no question in my mind that Weaver, on election nite, and actually long before that, decided he was not going to ever forget he was once a card-carrying Liberal. Clark will make enough Green concessions so that Weaver never ever forgets it.

I'm wondering now if the Green-Lib deal was forged when they were worrying about an NDP majority, slim or not. Weaver would have had slightly more electoral license to prop up the Libs, since he could then help represent the "unrepresented". The actual results may have presented a conundrum for him. It will be icky optics if he cuts for a deal for a cabinet post.

Stockholm

In the end Weaver will do what's good for Weaver...but in 2012 he was a big backer of Tom Mulcair's NDP leadership campaign and apparently wanted to run for the BC NDP in 2013 but didn't want to have to run for a contested nomination so he deciuded to run as a Green instead

josh

NDP and Greens to make significant announcement.

https://mobile.twitter.com/VancouverSun/status/869284060597714944

jerrym

I guess North Report was wrong.

After a weekend of negotiations, the B.C. Greens and the NDP have announced plans to hold a news conference at 2 p.m. Monday afternoon.

The expectation is Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver will announce his party's three MLAs are ready to support the NDP.

NDP Leader John Horgan will also be at the event. 

More details on the agreement will be released during the news conference this afternoon. The B.C. Liberals currently hold 43 seats, the B.C. NDP 41 and the Greens hold the balance of power with 3 seats. 

If the Green MLAs vote with the NDP, it would ensure 44 votes, just enough needed to pass legislation in the 87 seat legislature. 

Even if there is a deal in place between the Greens and the NDP, B.C. Premier Christy Clark will get  the first opportunity to govern and to try and weather a confidence vote.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-greens-and-ndp-to-hol...

 

NorthReport

Hold on to your hats as there is supposed to be a joint presser at 2 PM today, 20 minutes from now, with Horgan & Weaver 

NorthReport

I'm so happy I was wrong!

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

If it all plays out as expected, BC will also get the hardest-working Parliament that ever there was.  When it's 44-43, nobody can afford to skip out on a vote to go to the cottage.

NorthReport

Finally the scandal-ridden Liberals are out! It has been a long time.

 

Bye, bye Clark, hello Falcon!

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The Green's ran on Vote Change and they have followed through on it. Congratulations to them and the NDP for hammering out a deal.  For some reason this tune came to mind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHJoj9IqeKg

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..i guess i win the prediction :)

jerrym

I suspect that Weaver got many more emails from Green voters and even those who might consider voting Green, that if he propped up the Liberals, they would never vote Green than vice versa. By running a campaign that did not simply focus on environmental issues, but also targeted childcare, education and health care, Weaver may have taken more votes from the NDP than the Liberals, but then he was expected to deliver by such voters when the opportunity to influence governmental power occurred, even if he was no fan of the NDP. There are definitely Liberal and Conservative Greens but most of the Green campaign promises were not aimed at them. Some Liberal-Cons may have punched the Green ballot because they were fed up with the Liberal scandals, but I suspect that much of the Green increase in vote was related to a Green platform that was much more similar to the NDP than the Liberals. 

Debater

Greens to support NDP in four-year government deal

VICTORIA – The B.C. NDP will get a chance to govern the province, and John Horgan become its new premier, after New Democrats picked up the support of the B.C. Greens Monday for a new four-year government.

“In the end we had to make a difficult decision,” said Green Leader Andrew Weaver. “A decision we felt was in the best interest of British Columbia today and that decision was for the B.C. Greens to work with the B.C. NDP for a stable minority government over the four-year term of this next session.”

The two leaders made the announcement in front of the golden gates at the entrance to the legislative chamber in Victoria.

“There’s lots of work to do and we’re not done yet, but I ‘m confident with the 44 members, a majority of members prepared to support confidence motions for a New Democrat government, that we’re going to get there,” said Horgan.

“I would suggest the sooner the better for this institution.”

 

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-greens-and-ndp-to-hold-announc...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
“In the end we had to make a difficult decision,” said Green Leader Andrew Weaver.

Huh.  I wonder what was the difficult part.  This is "put the cork back in the champagne" talk.

Basement Dweller

With Clark's leadership in question, the Liberals will not want another election in the next few months. They will let this go until they are in better shape.

jas

Wow. When I read Stockholm's prediction today, I thought "Dream on..." I am also happy to be wrong.

However, this is a very tenuous arrangement. Weaver still has the upper hand. If there is any collusion with the Libs, Weaver can bring down the govt on a moment's notice. With this degree of instability, I would have rather it be the Libs at the helm. Better to deep-six them with.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

jas wrote:

Wow. When I read Stockholm's prediction today, I thought "Dream on..." I am also happy to be wrong.

However, this is a very tenuous arrangement. Weaver still has the upper hand. If there is any collusion with the Libs, Weaver can bring down the govt on a moment's notice. With this degree of instability, I would have rather it be the Libs at the helm. Better to deep-six them with.

The reports say Weaver has agreed to vote with the NDP government on budget and confidence motions for four years. I will give him the respect he deserves and that includes believeing he will live up to that deal. After all his name is not Trudeau. Weaver claims he wants to show voters that minority governments can be good government and thus that PR is a good thing. Federally the Liberal minority government with the NDP pushing them left produced some of the best government in our history.

JKR

Stockholm wrote:

I predict that within the next two days Weaver and Horgan will shake hands on a multi-year supply and confidence deal whereby the NDP forms government and the Greens commit to vote confidence and pass budgets and there will probably be a commitment for a referendum on PR very quickly while the new government is still in its honeymoon phase and almost certain to pass. I also predict that the new government's slim majority will quickly expand as Clark and a few other Liberal deadbeats will have no interest in sitting in Opposition and will resign their seats

Good prediction except you were off by 20 hours ;)

So who's going to win the Stanley Cup and NBA championship during the next couple of weeks?

Today was a sunny day in Vancouver. Sunniest in over 16 years.

Hallelujah!!!!!

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