BC NDP start nominations for possible fall election

The NDP/BCGEU in Burnaby North just nominated a nice caucasian union leader to run instead of an awesome community activist with deep roots into all the immigrant communities from having worked for Bill Siksay for years.  I don't believe that the poor people of Burnaby really need a woman who will defend the interests of the BGEU in Cabinet.  Janet is a very accomplished woman with a long trade union history but no connections into any of the immigrant communities in Burnaby.  The powers that be are again doing their best to ensure democracy does not break out in the nomination battles.

The machinations behind the scenes and the heavy hand of the real Moe was actually visible.  He has also told the search committee for another Burnaby riding that he has a "star" candidate the party wants nominated.  But then Moe made his name by stalking meetings in the '90's.  He is still the same so I actually am not surprised and when he became President I knew he would do exactly as he is doing. 

The BC Neo-Democratic Party should chance its name because it functions as a top down centrally controlled organization with only a facade of democracy.  

When the central headquarters inserts itself into nominations it destroys the riding memberships rightful role as the proper body to choose who should run to represent the members of that riding in an election.  

I said the central office was actively involved in the nomination battle.  That IMO is anti-democratic.  Given your posting history its my guess you like the top down approach.  Decisions like this need the guiding hand of the control freaks on Kingsway seems to be the approach.

So Stockholm do you think it is democratic for the Provincial President to try and tell a riding who to have as a candidate?  Just as a general approach not specifically this case.

I was hoping for something along these lines:

http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20110620/KAMLOOPS0101/306209987/-1/ka...

http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/123845124.html

http://www.bclocalnews.com/bc_thompson_nicola/kamloopsthisweek/news/1240...

The party Brass has a right to express a preference and the members are free to disregard that preference if they want

Any of our BCNDP friends hear more about these possibilities:

Nic Slater, recent Federal candidate in Delta South? (seems like a very conservative seat to me)

http://www.straight.com/article-399520/vancouver/nic-slater-planning-provincial-run

Paul Faoro - CUPE

http://www.straight.com/article-399512/vancouver/union-leader-eyes-vancouverfairview

A couple of Vision Van (good thing or bad thing?) municipal politicians: George Chow (Fraserview again Yiu maybe?) and

Raj Hundal (in surrey? i don't like the idea of people running in cities/ridings they don't live in, thats just me)

http://www.straight.com/article-396942/vancouver/vision-politicians-may-be-eyeing-ndp-ridings

Kamloops nomination heats up with some negative campaigning.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/bc_thompson_nicola/kamloopsthisweek/opinion/1...

George Heyman extraordinary back room operator.  Exactly the wrong kind of person to have in cabinet.  He has the charm of a snake oil salesman and the integrity of a used car salesman.

Dix seems to really have exceeded everyone's expectations as NDP leader. He seems to have reunited the party and to be assembling a good team of people and for someone depicted by the media as some "far-left Stalinist" (sic.) he seems to have a knack for attracting middle of the road candidates and voters!

Another one gone! Barry Penner MLA for Chilliwack-Hope has stepped down...

http://www.chilliwacktimes.com/news/Barry+Penner+retirement+announcement+triggers+byelection+Chilliwack+Hope/5763148/story.html

In municipal politics in the Lower Mainland Port Moody has often stood shoulder to shoulder with Burnaby in opposing stupid BC Liberal ideas especially in transit, roads and bridges. If nothing else his running for the NDP tells me he sees it as the party to get him a cabinet seat.

What is really fascinating is he was considered not just a political ally of Crusty Clark he was considered a CLOSE PERSONAL friend.

I'm probably dreaming, but I always thought the NDP under performs in the Fraser Valley. We do ok in areas north of the river like Mission, but get consistently clobbered in Abbotsford and Chilliwack. I've never bought the excuse that it's the bible belt. I think there is a lot of suburban/working class/commuter voters that should be more open to the NDP.

In any event, a by-election in Chilliwack could be interesting. It gives the NDP the chance to put some resources into the area normally reserved for more winable seats. Who knows what could happen?

I hope I'm right.

FYI - Chiliwack is actually geographically north of the Fraser river!

The riding of Chiliwack Hope is both north and south of the Fraser since it runs THROUGH it. This is a good test for both the Conservatives and the NDP.  This is a seat that the BC Cons need to either win or come very close in because it is a Conservative stronghold federally and has been for a very long time.  If they don't do well here there credibility heading towards the next election will be damaged.  

The NDP if it can come close and make it a three way race it will be considered a success.  Coming up the middle is the dream scenario but I think a strong second behind the BC Cons would be ideal.  The BC NDP wins ever election where their are two viable right wing parties.  The worst case scenario for the NDP is a collapse of the BC Cons in this by election.

As for North and South of the Fraser it has to do with the urban centres and the commuting times.  The Tri-Cities, Ne West,  Burnaby and Vancouver are much like Toronto, Scarborough and North York used to be when they were "separate" cities.  Without a map an out of towner has no idea where the city limits are.  Living across the Fraser has always meant a long commute and a far less densely populated area .  In the core cites the development is primarily high rise condos and a few town house complexes and no subdivisions of single family homes.  Across the river they built mostly single family home in subdivisions and town house complexes.  As well the housing prices are substantially cheaper in Surrey and Delta compared to the cites where you don't have to cross a bridge to get to the City.

You can get a break on housing outside the urban core but you pay for it in increased commute times and costs and often in reduced earning opportunities.  Most of the professional jobs are in places like Burnaby and Vancouver where there are diversified economies that include a thriving high tech sector and the main sound studios for the BC film industry.  

The idea of kids who grew up in Burnaby moving to Abbotsford would be considered a joke by young adults like my son and his friends who did grow up here.

The first riding called Surrey was created in 1966.  The NDP won and continued winning until Vander Zalm came along. As the ridings in Surrey multiplied with population growth it has always been a competitive election area.  Like all cities some neighbourhoods are more fertile than others for NDP candidates.  Parts of Surrey are indeed NDP strongholds and always have been. 

Will the next B.C. provincial election be fought along the same riding boundaries as exist now, or will they be redrawn due to the census held earlier this year?

Well if that's the case they may not have much luck - Abbotsford is already 25% South Asian!

Looks like the NDP is already making strategic announcements around trying to win in those two by-elections:

http://www.straight.com/article-549936/vancouver/ndp-leader-adrian-dix-targets-wedge-issue-bc-liberal-position-homophobic-bullying

Port Moody-Coquitlam : A little extra icing here, not only a long-term popular (yes? no?) mayor as a candidate but what i would assume is a community that would support a move towards a provincewide anti-bulling scheme specific for GLBT...

Chilliwack-Hope : If they get a strong candidate (the NDP), as many have stated this is a relatively socially conservative area, the NDP would be the rallying point for moderates/progressives and the Conservatives for the evil-doers; and the Liberals picking up the leftovers.

 I think wedge issues are pretty dirty tactics if thats the only point, i think many NDPers legitimately believe in this policy (i'd say a majority of them) as long as this is pushed as serious party policy and not just an attack to wedge the Liberals. Like the articule says this is going to be a hard fence to sit on, Christy either risks Urban seats or Rural seats... She can'ty grow anymore on her left; thats pretty dead... her only hope is to try and save the right wing of the party from bolting.

I found this poll by accident while searching for something else. Gee, i wonder why the mainstream media hasn't publishing it:

"The Oracle Research survey shows the NDP with 43.8 per cent support among decided voters, the BC Liberals at 25.3 per cent, the Greens at 16.0 per cent and the BC Conservatives with 14.8 per cent"

"only 23.8 per cent of respondents had a favourable opinion of Christy Clark while NDP leader Adrian Dix scored a rating of 42.5 per cent."

http://www.wireservice.ca/index.php?module=News&func=display&sid=7060

One strange part is how people remember voting in the last election:

"It's a reversal of fortunes for the Liberals from how respondents had voted in 2009. According to the survey, 41.8 per cent voted Liberal, 34.5 per cent NDP, 15.8 per cent for the Greens and the Conservatives at 7.9 per cent."

Here is the full PDF poll:

How do you forget who you voted for! Thats hilarious, i think their are those out there who just don't want to admit they voted Lib or NDP all of a sudden.... 2009 was BCL 46%; NDP 42%; Green 8%; Con 2%

Some more good news:

I just wanted to toss this in here. RJ Aquino (defeated COPE candidate) tweeted a link to Ellen Woodsworth's final speech to city council. I replied to both: "So sad about COPE results. Would either of you consider running in a provincial or federal election?"

Ellen tweeted back a one word answer: "yes"

Are there any ridings it would make sense for Ellen to run in? She lives in the Commercial Drive area... but I assume Jenny Kwan and Shane Simpson aren't going anywhere. Nor is Mable Elmore, and obviously not Adrian Dix. Vancouver-Fraserview is the nomination George Chow ran for but didn't get.

False Creek would be a tough sell. Fairview was only a 5-point margin last election though. Could Ellen Woodsworth knock out Margaret MacDiarmid? Would she be seen as relevant enough to the neighbourhood?

To win False Creek i think you need a Local candidate for sure, also someone with a business background. This is strong liberal as in fiscal conservative area, but i don't see it as a socially conservative one... A strong Moderate candidate could possibly win here.

I think Ellen sounds like a better fit for Fairview, and Ellen would be a well know and strong progressive candidate in this area. And with Meggs (who i heard might run here for the NDP) back on city council, who else would seek the nomination there? If she ran provincially, she has nowhere else to run... assuming Eby is running in Point Grey again.

That would leave Aquino nowhere but taking a stab at False Creek, which again would have some name recognition but i doubt he'd be a good fit.

Would Cadman run for the NDP anywhere?

Just when the Greens threaten to be a real party by electing an MP, or a city councilor, without any 'help' from another party they undermine themselves by deciding to sit out the upcoming by-elections.

First of all, the Conservatives are also a 'small' party, though should the Liberals continue to stumble they'll have access to more resources than the Greens could hope to access.

Also, by-elections seem tailor made for a small party. They can raise their profile, concentrate their resources in a way they can't during a general election, and attract attention that they normally wouldn't get. This is especially important for the Greens seeing as they don't have any seats.

Finally, the audit 'logic' makes no sense. On the one hand if they don't raise more than 10K in a year, how do they expect to fund a province-wide campaign, when an election actually happens? On the other, how does it make sense to not raise money when you claim to need more money to audit the money you've raised in the first place? Running in the by-election would inspire people to donate to them. Which also begs the question, if they could afford to enter by-elections before, what's changed so that they're such an onerous for them now? I have no knowledge of the internal condition of the Green Party, but it sounds to me as if they're in complete disarray. Either that or Sterk has no political skills, as either a strategist or an administrator.

Green parties in Canada are in general in serious disarray and are incredibly incoherent and inconsistent. Someone told me that the Ontario Greens had welfare cuts in their platform, I think? 

I saw Sterk at the debates when she tried running in Vancouver-Fairview. I wasn't particularly impressed, and now even less so every since she jumped on the anti-wi-fi bandwagon. Perhaps they're not running candidates because they can't find a venue without cellphones :P

I do hope though that Carr's win at the municipal level will force BC Greens to actually articulate something more coherent going forward.

Well, I will be volunteering this weekend at the BCNDP convention and the federal leadership forum will take place tomorrow. So it will be interesting to see how the folks here respond to various green proposals coming from the fed candidates. 

I think it's fair to assume that Green support would split between many parties as a second choice. The voters who put Carr on council probably included people who largely supported the NPA, or Vision, or even COPE. Provincially the Green voters are just as likely to be pulled back to BC Libs as BCNDP. Yes I know, the BC Libs are not exactly green but I still believe this is truthful. Campbell/Clark can wave the carbon tax in the air triumphantly to distract the right-green voters from the Northern Gateway Pipeline.

Andrian Dix is supposedly hiding something. 

http://cantafforddix.ca/