BC Polling started January, 2018

17 posts / 0 new
Last post
NorthReport
BC Polling started January, 2018
NorthReport
JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Good news for the ndp

http://angusreid.org/bc-ndp-one-year/

Voter Intention:
NDP: 41%
BCL: 36%
BCG: 17%
Other: 6%

NorthReport

There appears to be a dearth of polls in B.C.

Is that because John Horgan is so popular the mainstream media don’t want to show how popular he is?

Just askin’’

NorthReport

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

It seems to me that the BC Liberal numbers have been reduced by the increase of the BC Conservative numbers by a dozen points since the last election. The BC Conservatives have done well in opinion polls between elections but by the time an election approaches their numbers have dwindled away as the right solidly backs the BC Liberals to avoid vote-splitting. The BC Conservative only received 0.5% in the last election even though they had gone up to 15% in the polls previously. If we use FPTP in the next election I think this phenomena will repeat. I think the BC Liberals will be back around 40% by the time of the next election which has been enough for them to win phoney FPTP "majority" governments. This is why the BC Liberals and the right are vehemently opposing PR.

bekayne

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

It seems to me that the BC Liberal numbers have been reduced by the increase of the BC Conservative numbers by a dozen points since the last election. The BC Conservatives have done well in opinion polls between elections but by the time an election approaches their numbers have dwindled away as the right solidly backs the BC Liberals to avoid vote-splitting. The BC Conservative only received 0.5% in the last election even though they had gone up to 15% in the polls previously. If we use FPTP in the next election I think this phenomena will repeat. I think the BC Liberals will be back around 40% by the time of the next election which has been enough for them to win phoney FPTP "majority" governments. This is why the BC Liberals and the right are vehemently opposing PR.

Why are pollsters even mentioning the Conservatives? They ran only 10 candidates the last time and haven't had a full time leader in two years.

NorthReport

Exemplified by the two previous posts Liberals seem to singing the blues across this country more and more these days

Being petty and small-minded by depriving citizens of their Parliamentary representation is s sure fire way to incur the wrath of the voters

Keep it up Justin as you are making the opposition look better and better with each passing day

NorthReport

What I want for Christmas is for the NDP to call an election

Let’s Rock and Roll with our very popular NDP Premier John Horgan

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

What I want for Christmas is for the NDP to call an election

Let’s Rock and Roll with our very popular NDP Premier John Horgan

I don't think you'll like what happens when all those "Conservatives" find out that there's no "Conservative Party" to vote for.

NorthReport

Another Liberal wet dream 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

What I want for Christmas is for the NDP to call an election

Let’s Rock and Roll with our very popular NDP Premier John Horgan

Another FPTP election as a Christmas present for BC voters even if PR wins the referendum! The BC Liberals might be very happy with that turn of events!

I seem to remember that after the last BC election a person here was saying that the Greens were going to support a BC Liberal minority government and that John Horgan should resign in shame as leader of the NDP for pathetically losing the election!

jerrym

bekayne wrote:

JKR wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Oh, my, what has happened to the Liberals, eh!

NDP 38%

Libs 33%

Grns 13%

Cons 12%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election#Opi...

 

It seems to me that the BC Liberal numbers have been reduced by the increase of the BC Conservative numbers by a dozen points since the last election. The BC Conservatives have done well in opinion polls between elections but by the time an election approaches their numbers have dwindled away as the right solidly backs the BC Liberals to avoid vote-splitting. The BC Conservative only received 0.5% in the last election even though they had gone up to 15% in the polls previously. If we use FPTP in the next election I think this phenomena will repeat. I think the BC Liberals will be back around 40% by the time of the next election which has been enough for them to win phoney FPTP "majority" governments. This is why the BC Liberals and the right are vehemently opposing PR.

Why are pollsters even mentioning the Conservatives? They ran only 10 candidates the last time and haven't had a full time leader in two years.

The BC Liberals are a coalition of  federal Liberals and federal Conservatives created after the collapse of the Socreds in the 1991 election. There are actually more federal Conservatives in the BC Liberals than federal Liberals.

The BC Liberals were a centrist party under Gordon Wilson when they came back to legislative life in the 1991 election. However, Gordon Campbell and Conservatives soon came to dominate the party with the help of big business.  

To attain power in a FPTP system they needed to unite. In a PR system they could split and actually slightly increase their vote and total combined seats from those ultra Conservatives who refuse to do even minor accomodations for the Liberals and vote for the Conservatives or stay home at election time. There won't be many but there are some. They can work together as a coalition or cooperate informally to form a government if their combined vote in some future election permits, which is what they have done in one form or another since 1941 initially as a Liberal-Conservative coalition, then the Socreds, and finally the BC Liberals.

In other words, in a PR system the severe penalities of being separate parties disappear, making the glue holding them together much weaker. 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

BC NDP jumps 5% (4.7%) in latest BC Poll

 

bekayne
NorthReport

Quite an amazin’jump in support for the BC NDP led by Premier John Horgan one of Canada’s most popular Premiers. 

If David Eby does proceed with a money-laundering inquiry that NDP jump in support might possible double that 5% (4.7%) increase in support for the BC NDP