BC Pre May 14, 2013 Election Call

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NorthReport

This goes to show that Christy Clark can't even control her own party nominations. She is obviously in a lot worse shape than I expected.

 

Sam Sullivan, the guy who once collected welfare, and who now hates people on welfare, wants to represent you in the Ledge.  

 

These BC Liberals are such a classy group.

NorthReport

Oops, wrong thread.

 

NorthReport

Now here's an issue both Adrian and Thomas can sink their teeth into.

Just don't know why they put a questionmark at the end.

Are family doctors more likely to take on wealthy patients?

 

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/are-family-doctors-more-likely-to-take-on-w...

Stockholm

theleftyinvestor wrote:

Sam Sullivan won the nomination for Vancouver-False Creek. I think Matt Toner is not going to have an easy job winning this one. Constance Barnes would have had it in the bag.

Anyway - here's my not-so-farfetched speculation. Sullivan wins in False Creek. Clark loses her seat and the NDP takes government. The Liberals have a leadership convention by the end of the year. Sullivan runs for leader of the official opposition.

Actually people I have talked to think Toner is a stronger candidate to appeal to the demographics than Constance Barnes would have been. Vancouver-False Creek is full of "techies in condos" and Matt Toner is a "techy who lives in a condo". Barnes is more of an old fashioned NDPer better suited to an inner city riding - not one that is all upscale condos. I think Sullivan is widely viewed as a bit of a has-been who was a lackluster one term mayor who couldn't even get renominated by his own party!

NorthReport

Stay tuned.

BC Election Map and Guide


http://election.thetyee.ca/

jerrym

In a new report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is now shooting gigantic holes in Christy Clark's throne speech vision of generating up to 260 billion in government revenue from the sale of $1 trillion of iquified natural gas (LNG) to Asia during the next 30 years. The IEA was established by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a relatively conservative organisation, as a policy adviser to its member states,on energy security, economic development, and environmental protection (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Energy_Agency).

The IEA report warns that although Asian nations are importing LNG at prices roughly five times higher than those of LNG sales in North America, conditions in Asia are changing rapidly as nations such as Singapore change toward more competitive pricing. Asian gas markets have usually been monopolies or tightly regulated by governments, which has resulted in bargaining for the lowest possible price being subordinate to obtaining secure supplies. In addition, 88% of all Asian gas is priced on the amount of energy it provides compared to the price of oil while North American gas is priced by its abundance, resulting in natural gas being five times as expensive in Asia. 

The IEA report that "Development of a wholesale market (which is actively being considered) in Asia would drop prices closer to North American prices over the long term, and detach from the price of oil, through development of an Asian gas trading hub where both gas users and speculators could bid on the value of future supply. That would ultimately force potential LNG exporters such as Canada and the United States to accept lower prices than they’d get if they jumped into the unorganized Asian gas market today.

Last week the British Columbia government in its provincial budget forecast global average LNG prices to be 2.5 times higher than domestic prices over the next 20 years. It expects direct royalty revenue from B.C. gas production to grow 20-fold compared to the most recent fiscal year and has begun to speculate about opportunities to use gas royalties and tax revenue from the industry to reduce provincial debt, cut taxes and enhance government programs.

Those assumptions are based on a substantial differential between the price of gas here and in Asia. Analysts suggest the gap will narrow through competition."

http://www.vancouversun.com/Business/asia-pacific/sellers+find+Asian+mar...

Christy's LNG fantasy was always environmentally dangerous and economically absurd and here is the proof that the assumptions on which it was built are laughable.

 

jerrym

It looks like the BC Liberals could be heading for another debacle with regard to the HST. On April 1st, the province must switch back to the 7% Provincial Sales Tax (PST) from the regressive 12% HST, despite the millions of tax dollars spent by the Liberals trying to convince voters to support it in a referendum that they were forced to call due to public petitions the HST side lost. With only one month left to go before the PST is reimplemented, only 30,000 of 130,000 firms in BC have registered with the government in order to carry out this change.

Whether this is because the Liberals have spent little in notifying or advertising this change while they spent millions telling everyone they were economic geniuses at managing the province they are, as well as how dangerous the NDP government would be economically, or because retailers do not realize they need to register a separate account to collect the tax than the current one used for the federal HST, "there’s a growing concern that the ministry (of finance) is headed for an end-of-March jam-up unless registrations pick up dramatically in the next couple of weeks. ... The abiding concern in the ministry is that a last-minute flood will crash the system and/or overload staff resources, making the April 1 transition the last in a long string of HST-related embarrassments for the Liberals."

Businesses, of course, are whining loudly about the shift back to the HST. John Winter, president of the B.C. Chamber of Commerce, complained “Business is facing a $1.5-billion tax increase just by going back to the PST. It’s the largest single tax imposed on business in the history of B.C., not to mention the cost of compliance. But there is no recognition in this budget of the pain business will face going back to the PST.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vaughn+Palmer+Does+have+last+humiliatio...

Business is right. The HST was designed to transfer taxes from firms to individual taxpayers in a regressive manner. How unjust! However, trapped by the referendum and shaky revenues due to a faltering economy, the Liberals were forced to offer little consolation to business in this year's budget, especially with an election around the corner and the voters already apparently in a mood to punish them severly for introducing the HST in the first place. 

The BC voters are so ungrateful, especially when the Liberals are promising them economic nirvana thanks to their plan to generate hundreds of millions in government revenue from sales of LNG to Asia.

jerrym

The Liberals are also trying to negotiate ten year labour peace deals with public sector unions, claiming it will a good deal for the workers (just like the 0% increases they have handed out in the past) and that labour peace would help the economy.

 Vaughn Palmer argues "A government in this much trouble, mere weeks from an election, has a mandate to go through the motions — maintain programs, deal with emergencies, and make the best possible pitch to the electorate. But pursuit of deals stretching years beyond election day is the height of presumption."

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/fp/yourmoney/Vaughn+Palmer+time+Lib...

The Liberals have wrung up $59 billion in long-term contracts for the purchase of private sector power at up to five times theprice of the public sector BC Hydro and $96 billions in total in "financial obligations" (http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Contractual+obligations+resources+futur...).

The Liberals assure us that these are not part of the provincial debt, even though the provincial auditor general says otherwise and even though these "obligations" are now much greater than the official provincial debt. We hardly need more of these deals stretching into the long-term future from the Liberals. 

Mike N

In regards to returning to PST, all low income people in BC are getting shafted and will be paying more in taxes because of the PST this year. Why is that? Well, they are not eligible to the BC PST credit of $75 till next year, even though they will be paying PST for 9 months this year. So this year they lose out on about $56.25 per person. The HST credit, which was paid 4 times a year, ended in January.

NorthReport

This is the same Minister that was supposed to have investigated HD Mining and surprise, surprise, he could not find anything wrong. Right!

I have never seen anyrthing like this - it just gets worse and worse every day for Christy Clark and the BC Liberals.

Is this the real reason BC Labour Minister Pat Bell is not running again?

Developer says B.C. minister made promises over land deal NDP calls for full investigation over 'serious concerns'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/02/25/bc-pat-b...

jerrym

The following chart shows the impact of HST on families and that only those earning less than $10,000 pay less under the BC Liberals HST. Since the shift to the HST was meant to generate increased revenues for the government and at the same time eliminate the 48% of PST taxes paid by business, the overwhelming majority of individual taxpayers (including the poor earning more than $10,000) had to pay more in order to accomplish this. That is why business is crying about the 'extra tax burden' placed on them by the return to the PST and why voters rejected it. If, as now seems highly likely, the NDP is elected in May they can easily fix the PST tax rebate for the poorest and even make it more generous than the HST rebate by changing the formula and date of implementation for the rebate.

A new report says the average B.C. family is $350 more in taxes under the HST.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/05/04/bc-hst-r...

 

Another model was developed by Statistics Canada at the request of the Victoria Times-Colonist, in which it "analysed 15 household types and 15 income classifications using a social policy simulations database and model, and applied all of the rebates, tax credits and rules of the HST and GST. The average household can expect to pay an additional $521 under the new tax.

According to the Times-Colonist 'a household with an annual income of $40,000 to $50,000 will pay $253 more because of the HST, while households in the $80,000 to $90,000 range will pay $1,128 more annually.' "

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/BC-Politics/2010/06/22/HSTStatsCanada/

 

SpectateSwamp SpectateSwamp's picture

Scandal Boundary Similkameen The 14May2013 Election Trail. Whhaaat happened should be a question, for both the NEW Liberal and NDP candidates. Nothing can be off the table.

My Candidates papers just need a couple more names and then be signed off. 75 names and $250 is all it takes. Sure wish others would join the fray. Why should I have to be the bad guy and ask all the tough questions..

 

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKwxLB6jO54

 

NorthReport

And more good news for Dix here.

BC Conservatives name former Falcon backer chair of Vancouver campaign

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/27/Conservative-Campaign-Vancouver/

NorthReport

So what's the skuttlebut - surely there must be rumours floating around.

NorthReport

I'm wondering because of all the bad news in the press for the BC Liberals, day after day, will the BC Cons start to rebound in the polls?

SpectateSwamp SpectateSwamp's picture

NorthReport wrote:

So what's the scuttlebutt - surely there must be rumors floating around.

TWO different stories I have heard so far. There is a photo. One was that a pic was distributed by another local political rep. Another  story was that a close associate put the picture out. Obviously it must be true. Otherwise why withdraw.

Alex G Tskajumis Knows more than anybody I'm guessing. Someone should follow up....  Just saying.

theleftyinvestor

Re: HST, I never thought HST was all that bad of an idea, and that's why I voted to keep it and held my nose every time I heard an NDP anti-HST speech. I would have preferred a "fix" to address any inequities it may have introduced, rather than going back to PST. A tax that can be administered in a more streamlined manner just makes more sense to me. But apparently the people spoke.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

I'm wondering because of all the bad news in the press for the BC Liberals, day after day, will the BC Cons start to rebound in the polls?

If it hasn't happened yet, what makes you think it will happen now?

NorthReport

Because a governing party can only have so many screwups before voters start looking elsewhere.

--------------------------------

 

BC Liberals planned to use gov't resources to win ethnic votes 

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/27/BC-Libs-Outreach/

theleftyinvestor

NorthReport wrote:

Because a governing party can only have so many screwups before voters start looking elsewhere.

--------------------------------

 

BC Liberals planned to use gov't resources to win ethnic votes 

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/27/BC-Libs-Outreach/

 

Yeah I saw this when Jenny Kwan posted the link to Twitter.

In case history has not made itself clear: You do NOT want to piss off Jenny Kwan. She will slay you.

NorthReport

It is my favourite riding to visit during an election. Jenny's riding signage is wall-to-wall NDP signs.

theleftyinvestor

NorthReport wrote:

It is my favourite riding to visit during an election. Jenny's riding signage is wall-to-wall NDP signs.

True fact. Even people who know full well how safe her seat is are drawn to volunteering on her campaign because of all the work she does for the DTES. She and Libby are quite the power combo.

NorthReport

If you think Christy Clark has been having a series of bad news days, weeks, and now months, wait until you see today's BC press - unbelievable bad news for her over a leaked document.

 

BC Liberals planned to use gov't resources to win ethnic votes

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/27/BC-Libs-Outreach/

theleftyinvestor

NorthReport wrote:

If you think Christy Clark has been having a series of bad news days, weeks, and now months, wait until you see today's BC press - unbelievable bad news for her over a leaked document.

 

BC Liberals planned to use gov't resources to win ethnic votes

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/27/BC-Libs-Outreach/

 

You posted exactly the same link upthread already :)

NorthReport

BC Conservatives unveil candidate to challenge Clark in Vancouver-Point Grey

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/02/28/Conservative-Clark-Challenger/

NorthReport

 

Despicable

Cynical ethnic voters strategy out of premier’s office has Liberals looking gravely at their future

It was a sombre group of B.C. Liberals filing into the legislature Thursday in the wake of the latest, damaging revelations out of the premier’s office

 

David Young

Prior to this, I thought the provincial Liberals would make a decent showing in the up-coming election (20+ seats), but with this revelation, I wouldn't be surprised if they were headed for the single-digits in their seat count.

 

NorthReport

Christy Clark is quickly become the laughing stock of BC politics. She is going to investigate the leak into her "quick win" wth the ethnics strategy that came from her own key people. Say waht?

Take a look at The Province this morning.

Remember Clark just squeaked in, in the 2011 by-election in Point-Grey, and the Cons did not run a candidate there.

Now the Cons are running a candidate in Point-Grey, so Clark's own chances of being personally re-elected are now nil. 

janfromthebruce

I just finished reading The Province and it appears that the Liberal ship is sicking fast. The comments are not pretty and pretty much sum up liberal style politics - entitlement, dirty politics and tricks, Liberals eating their young and destroying from the inside (reminds of federal cousins of the Chretien/Martin wars). Thus same old, same old.

 

Centrist

Looks like the BC Libs are in CRISIS mode... Christy Clark is on the ropes... and the election is just 10 weeks away! Very serious political development. Stay tuned!

 

Quote:
 Crisis growing in the BC Liberal ranks

Keith Baldrey and Peter Meiszner, Global News : Friday, March 01, 2013 4:09 PM

There appears to be a revolt growing within the BC Liberal ranks against Premier Christy Clark.

On Thursday, cabinet ministers met for what was supposed to be a routine meeting to prepare for question period. 

Instead, they spent hours crafting an apology for this week’s leak of the party`s ethnic votes strategy, which many within the party are unhappy about.

The Premier still has not personally apologized, however Rich Coleman read out the apology in the Legislature on Thursday.

At press events yesterday, the Premier would not apologize in person.

Sources tell our Legislative Bureau Chief Keith Baldrey that cabinet ministers and MLAs were up all night on the phone, trying to come up with a strategy to deal with the mess.

It’s a possibility the Premier could be forced to step aside or convinced to do so voluntarily.

This afternoon, the riding association presidents of Surrey-Whalley and Surrey-Green Timbers stepped down. A resignation in Surrey-Fleetwood was expected.

They are said to be unhappy about the leak of the ethnic votes strategy and the suddent resignation of candidate Sukh Dhaliwal.

The Premier’s core support in cabinet is said to be down to a half a dozen ministers.

With only 10 weeks to the election, there is not a lot of time remaining for the party to make changes.

A report into the ethnic votes memo is expected to be released this afternoon, which could cause a further rift within the party.There appears to be a revolt growing within the BC Liberal ranks against Premier Christy Clark. [\quote]

http://www.globaltvbc.com/crisis+growing+in+the+bc+liberal+ranks/6442819...

NorthReport

Are we facing another Ujahl Dosanjh or Kim Campbell debacle? Laughing

 

NorthReport

Does the NDP only win when the free enterprise vote splits? Look to history 

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/03/01/Free-Enterprise-Split/

NorthReport

BC's Coming Election: Myth of the Demon Vote Splitter

Libs and NDP sow fear of third parties siphoning votes. But political life is complicated.

 

http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/03/01/BC-Vote-Splitting/

jerrym

NorthReport wrote:

 

Despicable

Cynical ethnic voters strategy out of premier’s office has Liberals looking gravely at their future

It was a sombre group of B.C. Liberals filing into the legislature Thursday in the wake of the latest, damaging revelations out of the premier’s office

 

On the CBC news tonight three leading members of the Chinese community were boiling angry over the Liberal's attempt to attract them with insincere apologies for the head tax and other forms of pats on the head outlined in the leaked Liberal document on "quick wins" with ethnics.

theleftyinvestor

You could almost say that Christy Clark is having a "Jacques Parizeau moment"... 

David Young

theleftyinvestor wrote:

You could almost say that Christy Clark is having a "Jacques Parizeau moment"... 

More of a pre-1993 Kim Campbell moment, wouldn't you say?

 

NorthReport

Strong words, written a year ago.

 

Christy Clark, Politics of Hate

 

http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2012/03/christy-clark-politics-o...

NorthReport

More breaking news.. A 4th riding association president has quit, it`s the outgoing Dave Hayer`s riding(BC Liberal held riding)...(7:00 pm)
So that`s 4 riding association presidents quit the BC Liberals, 3 in NDP held ridings 1 in a Liberal riding...

Kim Haakstad has resigned...Stay tuned..

 

http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2013/03/breaking-news-4th-bc-lib...

NorthReport

BC Liberals, Government Of Caught And II Apologies

 

http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2013/02/bc-liberals-government-o...

NorthReport

Christy Clark advisor quits as B.C. Liberal ethnic vote scandal grows

 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/03/02/christy-clark-advisor-quits-as-b...

NorthReport

Please, oh please, let's have some polling results for BC soon. Laughing

NorthReport

Premier Christy Clark has been exposed, again, as disingenuous and incompetent

The only solace for B.C. Liberals with a conscience is the reckoning due their party’s gaffe-prone leader. May 14: The day Ms. Clark is finally finished. It might come sooner.

Document-3.jpg

Document-4.jpg

 


http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/02/brian-hutchinson-premier-...

NorthReport

I really think that their campaign tune should be taken from the old Freddy Mercury "Queen" repertoire...

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you too
Another one bites the dust

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/03/01/kim-haakstad-resigns-christy-cla...

theleftyinvestor

Or maybe David Eby should teach Christy Clark how to sing "Livin' on a Prayer".

NorthReport

Within the past 48 hours, 4 BC Liberal riding association presidents have resigned.

Initially it was 3:

Surrey-Fleetwood

Surrey-Green Timbers

Surrey-Walley

and now we can add a 4th:

Surrey-Tynehead

theleftyinvestor

So the Cons have tanked, the Liberals are falling apart... Greens for official opposition? :P

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I love the irony that trying to pander to the ethnic vote is likely to lose them all the seats in Surrey. The Libs and NDP currently each have 4 of the 8 Surrey seats.

theleftyinvestor

To their credit, many political parties in Canada have built up into very multicultural coalitions. But when it reeks of tokenism, that coalition falls apart.

jerrym

Desperate to balance the budget after four failures to live up to their on legislation on balanced budgets, the Liberals are now planning to sell off financial assets at an enormous loss. Another example of financial mismanagement by the private sector party. 

"The B.C. Liberal government's controversial plan to balance its budget by selling off public assets includes the disposal of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of what it is calling "financial instruments."... In order to make a $125-million profit on the various transactions this coming year, the government would have to sell hundreds of millions of dollars worth of these instruments - if not more - for more money than it paid to purchase them."

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Government+plans+sell+financial+ins...

jerrym

 The title of the following article says it all: "Chinese Community Outraged At Liberal 'Ethnic Vote' Plan"

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/03/01/bc-ethnic-vote-plan-chinese-comm...

The Liberal cabinet is now planning on holding an emergency meeting Sunday to try to deal with the crisis, although the following article says it is not likely that Clark will resign.

http://www.globaltvbc.com/bc+liberals+plan+to+hold+emergency+cabinet+mee...

 

 

 

The latest Christy Clark scandal is now being dubbed "ethnicgate".

http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/

 

 

 

 

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