Alberta Polls

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NorthReport
Alberta Polls

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NorthReport
NorthReport
  • The Wildrose Party leads with 43 per cent followed by the PCs at 36 per cent.
  • The Liberals at 11 per cent.
  • NDP at nine per cent.
  • Alberta Party at one per cent.
NorthReport

Take a look at the previous election results - this looks like another looming disaster for the Liberals

2008 Election Results & Current Party Standings

Political Parties2008Voter %Current

Progressive Conservative
72
52.66%
68

Liberal
9
26.37%
9

New Democratic Party
2
8.52%
2

Wildrose Alliance
0
6.77%
3

Green Party
0
4.58%
0

Independant
0
1.11%
1

Vacant
-
-
-

jerrym

I have my doubts about this poll because it shows PCs ahead in Calgary but WRA ahead in Edmonton, possibly due to small sample size in the two cities compared to the provincial sample size. Commonsense (has it ever been wrong - oops, Quebec 2011) says it should be the other way around.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/story/2012/04/15/albertavotes2012...

In Calgary, the Tories have a slim four-point lead over Wildrose at 45 per cent support to 41 per cent. In Edmonton, it's the Wildrose Party with a slight lead of 37 per cent to 31 per cent.

NorthReport

One person's prediction and the reasons for it.

 

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2012/04/alberta-preview.html

 

 

NorthReport

NDP now in 3rd place with 13%

 
Wildrose Party to win majority in Alberta election: latest poll results

 

 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/wildrose-party-expected-w...

Howard

The WRA could come first in Edmonton. It's not impossible.

NorthReport

Oh, my!

Party / 2008 / Forum / Change

WR - 7% / 41% / Up 35%

PCs - 53% / 32% / Down 21%

NDP -  9% / 13% / Up 4% - pitiful, why bother even running

 

In Edmonton

NDP - 23%

 

Seats

Party / 2008 / Forum / Change

WR / 0 seats / 62 seats / Up 62 seats

PCs - 72 seats / 19 seats / down 53 seats

NDP - 4 seats / 2 seats

Other - 9 seats /2 seats

 

Total - 8 seats

 

Required for majority - 45 seats

 

 

 

Wildrose Party set for sweeping majority, latest poll shows

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/wildrose-party-set-for-swee...

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

I find today's Forum Poll very encouraging:

Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

 

Edmonton

Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1

It also shows that NDP at 15% in Southern Alberta, good news for Lethbridge West I expect.

The NDP vote from 2008 is holding far better than the Liberals and Tories.

nicky

Abacus, published yesterday, also had the NDP quite high in southern Alberta at 17%, boding well for Lethbridge West.

I was told by an Ontario organizer yesterday that his sources fromm Alberta are confident about winning 6 seats and  the seventh would in fact be in Lethbridge.

Policywonk

The more seats we win the more likely an minority, as the Liberals aren't likely to win more than a couple of seats.

Policywonk

Lou Arab wrote:

I find today's Forum Poll very encouraging:

Wildrose: 41
PC: 32
NDP: 13
Lib: 10
AB Party: 2

 

Edmonton

Wildrose: 30
PC: 31
NDP: 23
Lib: 14
AB Party: 1

It also shows that NDP at 15% in Southern Alberta, good news for Lethbridge West I expect.

The NDP vote from 2008 is holding far better than the Liberals and Tories.

I think it still indicates a WR majority.

NorthReport

But with all the workers there are in Alberta, this is not good enough for the AB NDP 

 

Alberta  - Seats

Year / Event / Pcs / NDP / WR / Libs

2012 / GE / 61 / 4 / 17 / 5 - NDP increased seat count by 100%, from 2 seats to 4 seats

2008 / GE / 72 / 0 / 2 / 9

Alberta - Popular Vote 

Year / Event / PCs / NDP / WR / Libs

2012 / GE /  44 / 10 / 34 / 10

Oct 12 / ENV / 45 / 12 / 29 / 13 - NDP up 2% since the election

Aug / ENV / 43 / 13 / 26 / 14

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics---Alberta-Political-sta...


 

 

 

 

jerrym

Historically, the seat distribution in Alberta has been nowhere near the urban/rural population split, which suited the PCs fine until the last election because they had more support in rural areas. There was even a 1991 ruling by the Supreme Court to "allow population variances between provincial ridings of up to 25 per cent above or below the average"(www.albertaviews.ab.ca/2012/04/04/the-value-of-your-vote-march-2010/) - thus creating a potential difference of 50%.

Now that the PCs are more of an urban party compared to the Wildrose Party, they could redistrict ridings to more equitably distribute the Alberta population between ridings based on the 2011 census in order to favour themselves than the Wildrose Party? Since NDP support is still primarily urban this could also indirectly benefit the NDP. 

 

 

David Young

jerrym wrote:

Historically, the seat distribution in Alberta has been nowhere near the urban/rural population split, which suited the PCs fine until the last election because they had more support in rural areas. There was even a 1991 ruling by the Supreme Court to "allow population variances between provincial ridings of up to 25 per cent above or below the average"(www.albertaviews.ab.ca/2012/04/04/the-value-of-your-vote-march-2010/) - thus creating a potential difference of 50%.

Now that the PCs are more of an urban party compared to the Wildrose Party, they could redistrict ridings to more equitably distribute the Alberta population between ridings based on the 2011 census in order to favour themselves than the Wildrose Party? Since NDP support is still primarily urban this could also indirectly benefit the NDP. 

 

 

Wasn't the last Alberta election fought on new electoral boundaries?  If so, they won't be changed untill after the next census, won't they?

 

NorthReport

Wow!

Support for Alberta premier down 25 points: poll

 

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/support-for-alberta-premier-down-25-point...

jerrym

The poll has some other very interesting results. Believe it or not, for all of the criticism I have read of Brian Mason on this thread (I am not a Mason defender as I don't know enough about Alberta politics) he actually has the highest net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among an admittedly low level of competition with +5% while as mentioned above Redford is -25%, Wildrose Smith is +3%, and Liberal Sherman at -3%. 

The NDP at 16% are only 10% behind the PCs (Wildrose is at 38% and the Libs at 13%), which must be for the first time in decades if not for ever. In Edmonton, the NDP (26%) is statistically tied with Wildrose (27%) and the PCs (24%).

http://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.1181379!/httpFile/file.pdf

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
The poll has some other very interesting results. Believe it or not, for all of the criticism I have read of Brian Mason on this thread (I am not a Mason defender as I don't know enough about Alberta politics) he actually has the highest net approval rating (approval - disapproval) among an admittedly low level of competition with +5% while as mentioned above Redford is -25%, Wildrose Smith is +3%, and Liberal Sherman at -3%. 

The NDP at 16% are only 10% behind the PCs (Wildrose is at 38% and the Libs at 13%), which must be for the first time in decades if not for ever. In Edmonton, the NDP (26%) is statistically tied with Wildrose (27%) and the PCs (24%).

There are a few reasons. Chief among them is that the PCs are governing like Wildrose anyways, so people don't see the point and will vote for the real Wildrose over the fake Wildrose. As for the polling numbers, in Edmonton people know that they can vote NDP without the danger of electing a Wildrose MLA. In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

...In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).

Well, I would argue that 14% in Calgary is not nothing. It's our best polling result there is quite some time, and up considerably from the 5% the NDP recieved there in the 2012 election.  At 14%, the NDP is essentially tied with the Liberals in Calgary.  They would start to become competitive in a seat or two there, although it might be a stretch to say that they could actually win. 

As for Lethbridge, the local candidate (Shannon Phillips) has shown no signs of slowing down and her riding association seems to be growing every time I look up.  She often tells me she wants to have a bigger membership in Lethbridge than we have in Edmonton Strathcona, and I fully expect her to reach that goal quite soon.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

In addition to the Think HQ poll posted above, the GLobe and Mail released some different numbers from Trend Research:

Wildrose: 34%
PC: 32%
NDP: 17%
Lib: 14%

The interesting thing about the Trend numbers, if they are to be believed, is that they show that the PC bleeding has been entirely to the left.  The PC's lost 12% since the election, with the NDP going up 7%, the Liberals up 4% and the Wildrose exactly where they were on election day.

I've done some crude seat projections based on these two polls.  For what it's worth, here they are:

THINK HQ:

Wildrose: 61
PC: 13
NDP: 8
Lib: 5

TREND RESEARCH:

Wildrose: 42
PC: 30
NDP: 9
LIB: 6

Policywonk

Lou Arab wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

...In Calgary, the "progressive" opposition is still primarily behind the Liberals, so that would help lift their numbers as well.

Still, as popular as the NDP is in Edmonton, if there is no support outside the city, the NDP will hit a wall even there if it is not seen as a real contender. Certainly the NDP should be capitalizing on its base of strength there, but I hope Mason and all are building a strong foundation throughout the province (particularly in Lethbridge).

Well, I would argue that 14% in Calgary is not nothing. It's our best polling result there is quite some time, and up considerably from the 5% the NDP recieved there in the 2012 election.  At 14%, the NDP is essentially tied with the Liberals in Calgary.  They would start to become competitive in a seat or two there, although it might be a stretch to say that they could actually win. 

As for Lethbridge, the local candidate (Shannon Phillips) has shown no signs of slowing down and her riding association seems to be growing every time I look up.  She often tells me she wants to have a bigger membership in Lethbridge than we have in Edmonton Strathcona, and I fully expect her to reach that goal quite soon.

Considering the membership numbers I recall in Edmonton Strathcona, that would be impressive.

jerrym

In an Angus Reid poll of 7,091 voters on the popularity of premiers, Alberta Premier Alison Redford's approval rating has fallen from 47% in December to 29% now, while Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith has 53%, with NDP leader Brian Mason and Liberal leader Raj Sherman tied at 34%.

Among opposition leaders Dix tied for third place with Ontario's Andrea Horvath behind Lorraine Michael (NDP - Newfoundland) with 61% and Danielle Smith (Alberta -Wildrose) at 53%. 

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48733/saskatchewans-wall-keeps-place-as-...

Obviously, many of the NDP leaders across the country are doing well and Dix should be premier next month. I leave it to Albertan NDPers to decide how well Brian Mason is doing. 

janfromthebruce

Redford year one: New poll shows sharp slide for PCs Conservative support has 'disappeared'

The Leger Marketing poll, commissioned by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal, shows the Wildrose Party under the leadership of Danielle Smith now leading Alberta's political landscape with the support of 37 per cent of decided voters, compared to 29 per cent for Redford's Tories.

The Liberals under Raj Sherman have seen their support rise to 17 per cent, while Brian Mason's NDP have climbed to 14 per cent.

SNIP

Redford, Alberta's premier since winning the PC leadership in October 2011, has an approval rating of only 26 per cent and a disapproval rating of 60 per cent.

Wildrose's Smith has the highest approval rating at 39 per cent and a matching disapproval rate of 39 per cent.

Sherman's approval rating stands at 28 per cent, while 31 per cent of respondents disapprove of his performance in the past year. The NDP's Mason is the only leader to have an approval rating higher than his disapproval level, 30 to 27 per cent.

jerrym

janfromthebruce wrote:

Redford year one: New poll shows sharp slide for PCs Conservative support has 'disappeared'

The Leger Marketing poll, commissioned by the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal, shows the Wildrose Party under the leadership of Danielle Smith now leading Alberta's political landscape with the support of 37 per cent of decided voters, compared to 29 per cent for Redford's Tories.

The Liberals under Raj Sherman have seen their support rise to 17 per cent, while Brian Mason's NDP have climbed to 14 per cent.

SNIP

Redford, Alberta's premier since winning the PC leadership in October 2011, has an approval rating of only 26 per cent and a disapproval rating of 60 per cent.

Wildrose's Smith has the highest approval rating at 39 per cent and a matching disapproval rate of 39 per cent.

Sherman's approval rating stands at 28 per cent, while 31 per cent of respondents disapprove of his performance in the past year. The NDP's Mason is the only leader to have an approval rating higher than his disapproval level, 30 to 27 per cent.

While the slightly higher ranking of the Liberals is within the sampling margin or error of the two parties, the higher percentage support fort the Liberals could simply be due to the Trudeau honeymoon having a small halo effect on the Liberal brand. If that is the case, I expect it to wear off as the Trudeau honeymoon dissipates. 

janfromthebruce

I thought the same thing jerrym.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

New Leger poll of the Alberta political landscape:

WRP: 34 (-3 from April, same as 2012 elxn)
PC: 33 (+6 from April, -11 from 2012)
NDP: 15 (+1 from April, +5 from 2012)
Lib: 15 (-2 from April, +5 from 2012)

 

knownothing knownothing's picture
Aristotleded24

Makes sense. [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKIZilenZxw]Smith learned how to be an effective Opposition Leader under Brian Mason.[/url]

NorthReport

What else is new, eh! Laughing

Quote:
Public support falling for governing Tories, poll find

When Albertans were asked who they would vote for if a provincial election were held now, the Wildrose Party would have the support of 33 per cent of decided voters while the PCs are at 31 per cent.

The Liberals are at 18 per cent support and the NDP are backed by 14 per cent of voters.

The numbers are essentially unchanged from the last Leger poll in September, though the Liberals have enjoyed a slight uptick.


http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Public+support+falling+govern...

NorthReport
Hurtin Albertan

Lots of AUPE members in Edmonton, wouldn't be surprised if disgruntled government employees are behind some of the uptick in NDP support in Edmonton.  

Aristotleded24

Hurtin Albertan wrote:
Lots of AUPE members in Edmonton, wouldn't be surprised if disgruntled government employees are behind some of the uptick in NDP support in Edmonton.

I also assume that the results of the last Edmonton civic election play into it.

voice of the damned

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Hurtin Albertan wrote:
Lots of AUPE members in Edmonton, wouldn't be surprised if disgruntled government employees are behind some of the uptick in NDP support in Edmonton.

I also assume that the results of the last Edmonton civic election play into it.

Possibly. But Edmonton had a very popular centre-right Liberal mayor in 1986, when the NDP took 11 out of 17 seats in the city. He was re-elected mayor a few months later. 

 

TiradeFaction

voice of the damned wrote:
Possibly. But Edmonton had a very popular centre-right Liberal mayor in 1986, when the NDP took 11 out of 17 seats in the city. He was re-elected mayor a few months later.

Wasn't that Laurence Decore, the eventual Alberta Liberal leader who pushed the Alberta PCs to the right in the 1993 election by running to their right? Or am I getting my history wrong?

voice of the damned

TiradeFaction wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:
Possibly. But Edmonton had a very popular centre-right Liberal mayor in 1986, when the NDP took 11 out of 17 seats in the city. He was re-elected mayor a few months later.

Wasn't that Laurence Decore, the eventual Alberta Liberal leader who pushed the Alberta PCs to the right in the 1993 election by running to their right? Or am I getting my history wrong?

Nope, your history is spot-on. It was ex-mayor Decore who first took up the austerity flag in '93, coining the phrase "massive and brutal cuts", which many people now wrongly associate with Klein. And that prompted Klein to jump on the same bandwagon.

That was also the election that saw the NDP wiped out from the legislature, in favour of the Liberals. The theory was that, in '86 and '89, Edmonton(and a few other scattered constituencies) was voting for an opposition, whereas in '93, they were voting for a government(and hence went over to the supposedly more credible Liberals). Unfortunately for Decore, the rest of Alberta didn't share that vision.

As well, the New Democrat Jan Reimer had been re-elected mayor a few months prior to the NDP legislature wipeout, further calling into question the connection between municipal and provincial voting habits among Edmontonians.

voice of the damned

Another thing about the municipal-provincial connection(or lack thereof) in Edmonton is that while Iveson IS identified with the NDP, he is also widely viewed as, and has in fact portrayed himself as, a protege of Stephen Mandel, who is usually identified with the Tories.

http://tinyurl.com/m3xm2pz

Personally, I doubt that Mandel will run for Tory leader, but the fact that it's been discussed to this degree probably indicates where he sits on the partisan divide. Though I'm not sure if either Iveson or Mandel is officially a member of any party.

NorthReport

Alberta NDP debate buoyed by surging poll numbers 

No clear winner in amicable debate

http://www.canada.com/news/alberta-politics/Alberta+debate+buoyed+surgin...

scott16

Hello NR, do you have the actual numbers from the Polls?

All it says is Shannon Phillips would win in Lethbridge. Not that I don't believe you.

NorthReport

This is all I have seen online, however there was an article in the Edmonton Journal that talked about surging poll numbers on October 3, 2014. Same article I think.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/29th_Alberta_general_election

NorthReport

NDP is now in 2nd place in Alberta. Could the NDP win?

PC - 26%, Down 4%

NDP - 23%, Up 1%

Libs - 20%, Unchanged

WR - 21%, Up 4%

AB - 9%, Down 1%

 

There is a drop in PC voter intentions: While this decline maybe be within the margin of of error, this drop appears likely driven via Prentice’s off-the-cuff “look in the mirror” statement on top of the electorate’s frustration with the province’s current fiscal mess and mounting job losses.

The NDP are growing in strength in Edmonton: Albeit sample size considerations, the NDP appear to be making major gains in the city. This comes at the expense of the decline in the conservative vote (for both the PC and Wildrose Parties).

Liberals appear to have problems ahead: Other the two major cities, where they are second, the Liberals are running no better than third everywhere else. This has a well known implication – the potential for vote splitting among centre/left parties. This includes the elimination of potential gains – for both the Liberals and NDP – in Edmonton if this data holds up.

 

http://1abvote.ca/poll-prentices-table-chat-pc-voting-intentions/

David Young

Has there been any indication that former provincial NDP leader Brian Mason could be running federally for the NDP once he doesn't re-offer in the upcoming provincial election?  Or has he said he's going to be staying in provincial politics?

 

scott16

David Young wrote:

Has there been any indication that former provincial NDP leader Brian Mason could be running federally for the NDP once he doesn't re-offer in the upcoming provincial election?  Or has he said he's going to be staying in provincial politics?

 

He's running provincially again.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

NDP is now in 2nd place in Alberta. Could the NDP win?

PC - 26%, Down 4%

NDP - 23%, Up 1%

Libs - 20%, Unchanged

WR - 21%, Up 4%

AB - 9%, Down 1%

 

There is a drop in PC voter intentions: While this decline maybe be within the margin of of error, this drop appears likely driven via Prentice’s off-the-cuff “look in the mirror” statement on top of the electorate’s frustration with the province’s current fiscal mess and mounting job losses.

The NDP are growing in strength in Edmonton: Albeit sample size considerations, the NDP appear to be making major gains in the city. This comes at the expense of the decline in the conservative vote (for both the PC and Wildrose Parties).

Liberals appear to have problems ahead: Other the two major cities, where they are second, the Liberals are running no better than third everywhere else. This has a well known implication – the potential for vote splitting among centre/left parties. This includes the elimination of potential gains – for both the Liberals and NDP – in Edmonton if this data holds up.

 

http://1abvote.ca/poll-prentices-table-chat-pc-voting-intentions/

It seems this is not an actual poll in the traditional sense, but was done by the website which is trying to unify all the opposition parties that are not Wildrose:

http://1abvote.ca/

About the poll's methodology:

* THIS SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED VIA GOOGLE SURVEYS OVER MARCH 20 TO 22. GOOGLE SURVEYS USES A BAYESIAN, RIVER-SAMPLING METHODOLOGY – ONLINE AND MOBILE – TO YIELD A POPULATION REFLECTIVE SAMPLE OF ALBERTA’S POPULATION. HENCE, NO MARGIN OF ERROR IS REPORTED. OF NOTE, ALBERTA HAS AMONG THE HIGHEST PENETRATION RATES OF MOBILE USAGE IN NORTH AMERICA, AND BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS EXCEEDS LAND LINE USAGE. GOOGLE SURVEYS WAS RATED AMONG THE BEST PERFORMING PLATFORMS IN THE 2012 US NATION ELECTIONS (RATED BY NATE SILVER, HTTP://FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.BLOGS.NYTIMES.COM/2012/11/10/WHICH-POLLS-FARED-BEST-AND-WORST-IN-THE-2012-PRESIDENTIAL-RACE/?_R=0), AND WAS USED EXTENSIVELY BY BRIAN F. SINGH IN HIS WORK ON BRIAN BOWMAN’S SUCCESSFUL MAYORAL CAMPAIGN IN THE 2014 WINNIPEG MUNICIPAL ELECTION. GOOGLE SURVEYS IS BUT ONE METHODOLOGY IN A POLLSTER’S TOOLKIT – WHILE NOT DEFINITIVE (AS HAS BEEN WITNESSED WITH OTHER POLLING METHODS), IT PROVIDES QUALITY DIRECTIONAL DATA THAT IS ABLE TO STAND ON ITS OWN AND IN CONCERT WITH OTHER MODES OF DATA COLLECTION, AND WE CROSS VALIDATE ITS FINDINGS FROM OTHER POLLING FIRMS THAT USE OTHER FORMS OF TRADITIONAL POLLING.

Here are the latest media-recognized polls:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/29th_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polls

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:
Here are the latest media-recognized polls:

">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/29th_Alberta_general_election#Opinion_polls...

Still not a bad relative ranking for the NDP overall. As I said elsewhere, their biggest challenge will be breaking out of their Edmonton bubble and becoming a party that can speak for all of Alberta.

bekayne

http://www.canada.com/news/Shocking+poll+signals+Wildrose+dead+heat/1093...

The survey also shows support for Rachel Notley’s NDP in Edmonton has reached 35 per cent, suggesting the NDP could sweep the capital.

“As it stands right now the NDP is poised to make huge gains in Edmonton,” Maggi said.

Some centrist and left-of-centre voters may feel the PCs have gone too far to the right under Prentice, and may park their vote with Notley’s party, Maggi said.

He noted the survey has the PCs running third in Edmonton with just 14 per cent of support, one percentage point behind the Wildrose and one ahead of the Liberals.

In Calgary, the PCs lead with 25 per cent, followed by the Wildrose at 21 per cent, the Liberals at 16 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Alberta Party at four per cent.

Among all voters (including undecided) provincially, the Tories and Wildrose are tied at 24 per cent, the NDP are at 15 per cent, the Liberals at 14 per cent, the Alberta Party at four per cent and the undecided at 20 per cent.

 

Aristotleded24

With the Alberta PCs talking out of both sides of their mouths for so long, it's not a surprise that their vote would collapse and that voters would go for the "real thing," whether Wildrose on the right or the NDP on the left.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Newe poll puts NDP 15, Liberals 14, Wild Rose 24 and PC 24 -- all within ten points.

Is Alberta about to make things interesting?

ajaykumar

NDP expected to sweep Alberta,

Jacob Two-Two

It kinda looks like they're poised to pick up a seat or two. We'll have to wait and see. But thanks for the vote of confidence, ajay.

adma

At 35% in Edmonton vs 15-14-13 for the other three parties, I reckon it'd be far more than "a seat or two".

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