Alberta Polls

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Jacob Two-Two

Yeah, but Alberta is still Alberta. I can easily see a protest vote forming under the NDP banner that fades when the election comes. Just not the kind of place where the NDP should count its chickens, is all I'm saying.

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Newe poll puts NDP 15, Liberals 14, Wild Rose 24 and PC 24 -- all within ten points.

Which to me suggests that the progressive opposition to the PCs is nearly evenly divided between the NDP, which is concentrated in Edmonton, and the Liberals, which is concentrated somewhat in Calgary. The question is, if the NDP is about to sweep Edmonton (which is what these polling numbers suggest), will Calgarians take that leap of faith as well?

Aristotleded24

Jacob Two-Two wrote:
Alberta is still Alberta. I can easily see a protest vote forming under the NDP banner that fades when the election comes. Just not the kind of place where the NDP should count its chickens, is all I'm saying.

Absolutely correct, but I think on the other hand you can go too far in the other direction and write off areas that are more challenging for your party and that results in conceding ground unnecessarily. That's why, for example, the Saskatchewan Party gained a stranglehold on rural areas, and why Reform became so entrenched in Western Canada. I think this would be a great opportunity, and think of the optics of Stephen Harper having to face a New Democrat surge right in his own back yard going into a federal election.

adma

And remember, too: it's Rachel Notley we're dealing with.

ajaykumar

NDP gonna win Alberta like they won BC and Ontario.

Aristotleded24

With the PCs collapsing, I think the NDP has to broaden its line of attack. Last time, the possibility of a Wild Rose victory spooked many voters into supporting the PCs, and we cannot rule out a repeat of that happening. I think the NDP needs to attack both the Wildrose and the PCs, pointing out the similarities, stating that they will stand up for average Albertans against these 2 parties. I also think they should copy the successful NDP campaign in the federal election which told voters that [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUhyGqElgjk]you have a choice.[/url]

ajaykumar

Aristotleded24 wrote:

With the PCs collapsing, I think the NDP has to broaden its line of attack. Last time, the possibility of a Wild Rose victory spooked many voters into supporting the PCs, and we cannot rule out a repeat of that happening. I think the NDP needs to attack both the Wildrose and the PCs, pointing out the similarities, stating that they will stand up for average Albertans against these 2 parties. I also think they should copy the successful NDP campaign in the federal election which told voters that [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUhyGqElgjk]you have a choice.[/url]


Yes, they had a choice and they gave the conservatives a majority. Ouch.

Jacob Two-Two

.

adma

Again: it's the Rachel Notley New Democrats.  If there's stirrings of a mini-Orange Crush in Edmonton, it's about her, not just the generic NDP brand.

bekayne
NorthReport

After Danielle Smith it seems the biggest flake in Alberta politics is Laurie Blakeman. What a circus!

NorthReport

Insights West

Party / Dec '14 / Mar '15 / Change

PCs / 42% / 31% / Down 11%

WR / 14% / 27% / Up 13%

NDP / 18% / 22% / Up 4%

LIbs / 19% / 14% / Down 5%

AP / ? / 2% / ?


http://www.insightswest.com/news/albertans-expect-negative-effect-from-b...

 

Brachina

 If you added the Liberals vote to the NDPs.you'd get 36%. Could it be possible with even an outside chance that the NDP could win in Alberta?

Aristotleded24

[url=http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2015/04/now-two-polls-sugge...'t count your chickens yet:[/url]

Quote:
Here's my advice to members of Wildrose 2.0, the Alberta NDP and the other opposition parties with and without seats in the Legislature: Don't start measuring the drapes in the ministers’ offices just yet.

Yes, there have now been two polls suggesting much the same thing -- that the Wildrose Party is surging back after a few bad weeks, the NDP is extremely strong in the Edmonton area, and support for the Progressive Conservative government is fading.

But neither one is a particularly good poll, technically speaking. One's based on demon dialler technology. The other used a self-selecting panel. Both were in the field over a weekend. Just the same, this is not to say that they haven’t hit on a real phenomenon, voter-intention-wise.

...

Not to be negative, but doesn’t anyone remember what happened right after after the last time a bunch of polls suggested a Wildrose election victory was in the offing?

To reprise: back in the now-apparently-forgotten spring of 2012 leading up to the Alberta general election of April 23 that year, polls kept saying the Tories under Alison Redford were doomed, and the Wildrose Party led by sparkling young leader Danielle Smith was cantering toward an easy majority government.

If you want to look it up, excellent search terms in addition to Smith and Wildrose would be would be "upstart party" and "surging in the polls."

Mainstream media, which consistently pulls for the right (wing) team, could barely keep itself from hyperventilating at the thought of a government even farther to the right that the Klein-Stelmach-Redford PCs.

...

If you want to Google what happened then, search terms like "baffled," "breathtaking," "unprecedented," "clearly something's wrong," "I'm concerned about the impact on the credibility of the (polling) profession," and "how did the pollsters get it so wrong?" Indeed, all these search terms happen to come out of the same story!

In other words, when you get right down to it, whatever all the other reasons may be, the pollsters just got it spectacularly wrong. Some of them more spectacularly than others.

On April 23, Redford's PCs won a respectable majority -- which under the circumstances amounted to a massive victory.

The same thing happened again, with similarly unexpected results, in British Columbia in May 2013, as it had almost happened in Quebec in September 2012.

As in Alberta, in both those elections sitting governments that appeared headed to defeat were unexpectedly reelected despite the confident predictions of the pollsters, who seem to have done a little better in a couple of elections since.

Winston

Brachina wrote:

 If you added the Liberals vote to the NDPs.you'd get 36%. Could it be possible with even an outside chance that the NDP could win in Alberta?

No.

If that were at risk of happening, you'd see Wildrose support collapse to the Tories (or vice versa), it would make your head spin!

NorthReport

New poll coming out in a few hours showing a huge surge for the Alberta NDP - has anyone heard about it?

scott16

NorthReport wrote:

New poll coming out in a few hours showing a huge surge for the Alberta NDP - has anyone heard about it?

Where did you hear this?

NorthReport

Don Martin on CTV's Power Play

nicky

Here it is:

Calgary Sun @calgarysun · 4m4 minutes ago

Poll has WR at 31%, NDP at 26%, Tories at 25%, Libs at 12% and Alberta Party at 5%

 

josh

However, over 20% undecided.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Where do you see that?

jjuares

josh wrote:
However, over 20% undecided.

That's low for AB, that would be the non-voters.

knownothing knownothing's picture
NorthReport

Can you imagine how Danielle Smith is feelin' right about now!

Who is ThinkHQPublicAffairs and what is their track record like?

The PCs are running last - echoes of the polling for the previous election where Wildrose was supposed to win?

AB

PCs - 25%

WR - 31%

NDP - 26%

 

Calgary - which seats do the NDP have the best chance of winning here?

PCs - 27%

WR - 31%

NDP - 19%

 

Edmonton - how many seats in Edmonton?

PCs - 22%

WR - 21%

NDP - 42%

 

What about the Lethbridge area?

 

http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1334947/alberta-election-wildrose-pcs-a...

 

E-flat

The wikipedia page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015#Opinion_poll... showing this poll result by "1Question":

NDP 29

Wildrose 24

PC 23

Lib 15

Alberta 9

Can anyone shed any more light on this?

It links to to 1abvote.ca, which is a unite progressives page, currently not loading though..

Hmm

NorthReport

Has the NDP ever polled this high in Alberta?

It just might be the perfect storm for Notley what with Wildrose coming across as flakes and Prentice's unpopularity as he seems to be lacking charisma.  

jerrym
Winston

NorthReport wrote:

Has the NDP ever polled this high in Alberta?

Yes, the NDP regularly polled in the 25-30% range through the 80s and early 90s when they were last Official Opposition.

jjuares

Winston wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Has the NDP ever polled this high in Alberta?

Yes, the NDP regularly polled in the 25-30% range through the 80s and early 90s when they were last Official Opposition.


Yes and it's early in the campaign but from an Edmonton perspective this election has started well. The other advantage this time is the right is split. If the NDP can move into second and be seen widely to be in second that will change the dynamics profoundly. The Tories won't be able to ask for a strategic vote to stop WR.

NorthReport

Does 308 have the worst track record in Canada?

PCs - 46 seats

WR - 18 seats

NDP - 13 seats

Liberals - 10 seats

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/04/alberta-pcs-favoured-as-electio...

NorthReport
josh

NorthReport wrote:

Does 308 have the worst track record in Canada?

PCs - 46 seats

WR - 18 seats

NDP - 13 seats

Liberals - 10 seats

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/04/alberta-pcs-favoured-as-electio...

 

And who's to say they won't end up being right? 

 

Place this one under "premature trashing."

 

josh

And an updated projection:

PC 35

WR 25

NDP 17

Lib 12

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/alberta.html?spref=tw

 

 

Brachina

cbc's website has an article on the NDP surge in Alberta with a poll from mainstreet, but I can't copy paste the link, so hopefully some else can do so thanks.

NorthReport

Mainstreet is showing idential polling as ThinkHQ for the NDP at 26% support.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015#Opinion_polls

NorthReport

It's pathetic to see the CBC and 308 trying to prop up the almost non-existent Alberta Liberals.

NorthReport
jerrym

The NDP are now in a three way statistical tie with the Cons and Wildrose and this is a Forum poll! Things keep getting woolier and woolier.

Quote:

In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum PollTM among 1661 Alberta voters, almost exactly equal proportions, about 3- in-10, will vote for the Wildrose Party (30%), the New Democrats (28%) or the PCs (27%) in the election scheduled for May 5. On this sample size, this is a virtual three way tie.

Wildrose is favoured by Gen X and Boomers (45 to 64 - 36%), males (35%) rather than females (24%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K - 36%), in Calgary and central Alberta (35% each) and in Southern Alberta (40%). One fifth of past PC voters will vote Wildrose this time (21%).

The PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (33%) and the least wealthy (35%). Just one half of past PC voters will vote for the party this time around (47%).

The NDP vote is common to younger voters (25 to 34 - 39%), the less wealthy and the wealthier ($20K to $40K and $80K to $100K - 34% each) and in Edmonton (40%). Close to one quarter of past PC voters will vote NDP this time around (22%).

Bare majority seen for Wildrose

If the results shown here are projected up to an 87 seat Legislature, the Wildrose Party would take a bare majority of 44 seats, to 23 for the PCs, 15 for the New Democrats and 5 for the Liberal Party.

Prentice’s favourables very negative, Notley’s high, others largely unknown

Fewer than a quarter of Alberta voters approve of the job Jim Prentice is doing as premier (22%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a truly awful -41, by the far the lowest we have ever recorded. Rachel Notley is approved of by more than 4-in-10 for her job as NDP leader (42%) and her net is a very positive +21. Other candidates do not draw high levels of approval, but are also not well- known (Brian Jean - 28% approve, net +5, David Swann - 25% approve, net -7, Greg Clark, - 16% approve, net -6). ...

Regional Results Total Calgary Edomonton Southern A. Central A. Northern A. 

PCs                    27       26         26             23               30           29

Wildrose             30       35         18             40                35           33

NewDemocratic    28      20         40             23                22           19

Alberta Party         2        3          2               3                   1            3

Liberals              12       14        12                8                  9           11

Other                  2        2          1                3                  3            5

 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%...

 

 

adma

jerrym wrote:

The NDP are now in a three way statistical tie with the Cons and Wildrose and this is a Forum poll! Things keep getting woolier and woolier.

 

Maybe the residual "Forum-ism" is in how it all works out to a WR bare majority in seat numbers and the NDP with not much more than a third of Wildrose seats...

Pierre C yr

NDP vote isnt as efficient right off the bat here but if this holds to election day itll rock the Federal landscape no doubt. 28% or higher result would be amazing in Canada's most conservative province.

voice of the damned

Pierre C yr wrote:

NDP vote isnt as efficient right off the bat here but if this holds to election day itll rock the Federal landscape no doubt. 28% or higher result would be amazing in Canada's most conservative province.


They got 29.22% in 1986, and it didn't seem to have much impact federally. Ross Harvey did manage to get himself elected from Edmonton East in 1988, and was subsequently defeated in 1993. NEXT...

voice of the damned

Honestly, I think people might be overestimating the potential for provincial/federal spillover in the event of a credible NDP showing in Alberta.

Brachina

 Its a different political era now then it was in the 80's. And the spill over would extend beyond the boarder of Alberta. It would radically change the narrative and take the stink of defeat off the NDP. 2014 was a bad year electorally for the NDP and the federal NDP numbers reflect that. It would also be good for Moral nationally within the NDP.

 It also means Harper couldn't keep taking Alberta for granted, he'd have to invest serious resources in Alberta.

 And it would derail the idea that only the Liberal can win federally.

jjuares

Brachina wrote:

 Its a different political era now then it was in the 80's. And the spill over would extend beyond the boarder of Alberta. It would radically change the narrative and take the stink of defeat off the NDP. 2014 was a bad year electorally for the NDP and the federal NDP numbers reflect that. It would also be good for Moral nationally within the NDP.

 It also means Harper couldn't keep taking Alberta for granted, he'd have to invest serious resources in Alberta.

 And it would derail the idea that only the Liberal can win federally.


I agree. Also some of the narrative would also be if the NDP can do well in AB they can well anywhere

David Young

jjuares wrote:
Brachina wrote:

 Its a different political era now then it was in the 80's. And the spill over would extend beyond the boarder of Alberta. It would radically change the narrative and take the stink of defeat off the NDP. 2014 was a bad year electorally for the NDP and the federal NDP numbers reflect that. It would also be good for Moral nationally within the NDP.

 It also means Harper couldn't keep taking Alberta for granted, he'd have to invest serious resources in Alberta.

 And it would derail the idea that only the Liberal can win federally.

I agree. Also some of the narrative would also be if the NDP can do well in AB they can well anywhere

I can see a similar situation that happened in Winnipeg in 1988.  The provincial Liberals went from 1 seat to 20 in the provincial election, defeating many long-time New Democrats, and then in the federal election, Liberals won long-time NDP seats federally.

Why can't the same thing happen in Edmonton in 2015, with the NDP winning a large number of provincial seats, and then federal ones later on this year?

 

NorthReport

After Edmonton-Strathcona, what would be the next 5 seats that the NDP could possibly win federally in Alberta if things go their way?

scott16

NorthReport wrote:

After Edmonton-Strathcona, what would be the next 5 seats that the NDP could possibly win federally in Alberta if things go their way?

I would assume Griesbach and Centre and possibly Manning. Possibly Lethbridge.

Stockholm

voice of the damned wrote:
Pierre C yr wrote:

NDP vote isnt as efficient right off the bat here but if this holds to election day itll rock the Federal landscape no doubt. 28% or higher result would be amazing in Canada's most conservative province.

They got 29.22% in 1986, and it didn't seem to have much impact federally. Ross Harvey did manage to get himself elected from Edmonton East in 1988, and was subsequently defeated in 1993. NEXT...

Two things to keep in mind - first of all there was a two and half year lag between the Alberta NDP winning 16 seats in 1986 and the federal election of 1988 - that is two and a half years for momentum to evaporate - it would be quite different if the NDP had a smashing performance this May and we had a federal election campaign starting just four months later.

Second of all the federal NDP did increase its vote in Alberta substantially in 1988 while it only won one seat - it came close in several others and would have done even better were it not for the fact that the election became a referendum on free trade which was very popular in Alberta at that time.

adma

Stockholm wrote:
Second of all the federal NDP did increase its vote in Alberta substantially in 1988 while it only won one seat - it came close in several others and would have done even better were it not for the fact that the election became a referendum on free trade which was very popular in Alberta at that time.

And maybe just generally, the PCs as a time-tested "safe zone" option--and maybe even, the emerging Reform Party claiming a smidgen of the populist base that'd otherwise have opted for NDP.  (May have made a difference in seats like 1988-version Edmonton-Strathcona.)

sherpa-finn

Something I did not know about Alberta politics: the President of the Alberta Liberal Party is Shelley Wark-Martyn, whom some might remember as an Ontario NDP MPP from the Bob Rae era. Presumably she shifted parties when she shifted provinces. Gotta wonder if she now rues that decision ....

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