Alberta Polls

338 posts / 0 new
Last post
Brachina

 The polls for week 2 have a high of 34% for the NDP and 30% as the low in Alberta. For Wildrose they have a high of 35% low of 20%.

 I actually think 1abvote is more likely because overwise support for the Alberta Liberals, Alberta Party, and Greens went to Wildrose, I just don't see it.

Winston

Brachina wrote:

 The polls for week 2 have a high of 34% for the NDP and 30% as the low in Alberta. For Wildrose they have a high of 35% low of 20%.

 I actually think 1abvote is more likely because overwise support for the Alberta Liberals, Alberta Party, and Greens went to Wildrose, I just don't see it.

Umm... Alberta and Liberal Party support wasn't anywhere north of 10% to begin with. 1abvote's results seem to be very good for identifying trends, but not for accurately identifying the actual numbers. They are grossly overestimating AB and LIB support and, I suspect, somewhat exaggerating NDP support as well, while underestimating the support of both the right-wing parties.

E-flat

Latest Forum Poll

ND 38
WR 25
PC 20
Lib 7
AP 6

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%...

And this is polling done Apr 22-23, so even before the full effect of Notley's resounding win in the debate could be seen.

Wow. I'm trying not to get too excited here, but these numbers and trends make that very difficult!

Maybe most astoundingly, NDP leads in every income bracket except the lowest.

josh
NorthReport

Did Forum forecast that Wildrose would win the last election?

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Did Forum forecast that Wildrose would win the last election?

Their final poll had WR by 2, which was the closest margin of the final polls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012#Opinion_polls

NorthReport

NDP take dramatic lead in Alberta

 
Forum

Party / Apr 7 / Apr 24 / Change

WR / 30% / 25% / Down 5%

NDP / 28% / 38% / Up 10%

PC / 27% / 20% / Down 7%

Libs / 12% / 7% / Down 7%

AP / 2% / 6% / Up 4%

 

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/275/majority-government-seen-in-wake-...

 


scott16

I hope these numbers hold up.

If the NDP win, how long until the liberals on this board say it's a Rachel Notley win not an NDP win?

Brachina

 Like I said I think Prentices numbers were already telling him the same thing, that's why he went gunning for Rachel.

NorthReport

The NDP must be doing very well in Calgary as well as Edmonton - maybe Prentice could lose his seat. That indeed would be poetic justice.

DaveW

another Orange Wave?? ... imagine the effect this could have on the federal campaign! Tongue out

NorthReport

It could be huge - imagine right in Harper's back yard.

bekayne

Vote in the last election: Last Forum poll, current Forum poll, actual results

PC 38.5   39.5   43.9

WR 25.6  20.0   34.3

ND 10.6   11.1   9.8

LB   9.1    6.7   9.9

AB   0.8    1.2   1.3

OT   4.4    3.4   0.7

josh
NorthReport

Thanks josh

So in the last election 

Party / Forum Poll / Election Results / Difference

PCs / 36% / 44% / Under by 8%

WR / 38% / 34% / Over by 4%

NDP / 12% / 10% / Over by 2%

Northern PoV

Wise words from Dave:http://daveberta.ca/2015/04/le...
"the first unwritten rule of Alberta politics: that the PCs always win, and they always win a big majority [this is me, managing my own expectations]."

NorthReport wrote:

It could be huge - imagine right in Harper's back yard.

Yup, if Rachel had Tom's job then Justin would have a much harder job ahead of him.

If Alberta elects an NDP government I will happily eat my hat.

(And stop worrying about how strong NDP polling creates another Harper majority.)

 

josh
Brachina

 Forum and the google survey basically agree with each other, Mainstreet is the outlyer, but even they have NDP tied for 1st.

DaveW

Dave in Alberta:

I am so old, I can remember when the Ontario legislature had been Blue forever, and would remain Tory forever because well, it would ...  and when BC was Socred and would be forever, and when the Liberals under various federal leaders ran up non-stop QC majorities and supermajorities over decades and decades ...

BUT things change in politics, esp expectations, demographics, attitudes, leaders, memories;

nothing shields Alberta from that universal constant

NorthReport

Mainstreet

Party / Mar 29 / Apr 7 / Apr 13 / Apr 20 / Apr 24 / Change

WR / 30% / 31% / 31% / 35% / 32% / Up 2%

NDP / 18% / 26% / 30% / 31% / 31% / Up 13%

PC / 30% / 27% / 24% / 25% / 26% / Down 4%

Lib / 17% / 12% / 10% / 4% / 8% / Down 9%

Northern-54
NorthReport

Remmeber this was before the debate.

Forum

Party / Apr 9 / Apr 23 / Change

WR / 30% / 25% / Down 5%

NDP / 28% / 38% / Up 10%

PC / 27% / 20% / Down 7%

Lib / 12% / 7% / Down 5%

nittanylionstorm07

This election is so fascinating...  Another poll from Pantheon research showing similar results to Forum but with a similar sample size to Mainstreet 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/a6f9pndj33rpaa9/Pantheon%20Release%20Apr%2024t...

 

Sample size = 4,131

NDP  31.98%

Wildrose  27.28%

PC  17.79%

Liberal  5.89%

Alberta  2.24%

Undecided  14.80%

 

NDP leads in both Edmonton and rural North and is competitive everywhere else. 

nittanylionstorm07

Edit... Oops double post

josh

6 PC held seats polled. Incumbents trail in each.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-6-riding...

NorthReport
NorthReport

+

NorthReport

The Election Index: Alberta NDP polling at historic highs in Edmonton

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/the-election-index-alberta-n...

bekayne

I ran the "party switcher" numbers in the Forum and Pantheon polls through the UBC election simulator. The first number is what the simulator gave me, the second in brackets is the number in the poll.

Forum

ND   38.0    (38) 

WA   36.0   (25)

PC    19.5   (20)

LB     6.5    ( 7)

 

Pantheon

ND    35.9   (37.54)

WA   35.6   (32.02)

PC    21.7   (20.88)

LB     6.7    ( 6.92)

In terms of those who said they voted in 2012, both polls have Wildrose gaining more voters than they lose. 

Centrist

E-flat wrote:
Latest Forum Poll ND 38 WR 25 PC 20 Lib 7 AP 6

Maybe most astoundingly, NDP leads in every income bracket except the lowest.

Even more astoundingly, Forum Research has the NDP with its highest level of support (45%) in the highest income bracket. And the NDP also leads in the normally most small "c" conservative age demographics (and those that vote in highest proportions) - 55 - 64 and 65+.

Purported polls, such as this, showing the NDP winning gov't will cause more harm than good at the ballot box on e-day. It will spook not only potential NDP voters thinking that they will only elect a strong opposition but also right-wing types to back perhaps the PCs over the WR in order to forestall same.

Then again, we could also see a 1990 NDP victory akin to that of Bob Rae in Ontario.

 

 

Northern-54

NDP -- 44%

PC -- 20%

Wildrose -- 19%

Liberal --  11%

Alberta Party -- 6%

 

http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-clos...

 

NorthReport

Looks like Alberta seriously needs a PR voting system

Marco C

I like the numbers... B\ut...

 

That was one of the worst writen post ever, a lot of spelling errors and grammer issues. I'm not generaly one to talk given my own record on spelling and grammer, but then again I'm not running an advocacy group like 1ABvote.

 

Policywonk

Marco C wrote:

I like the numbers... B\ut...

 

That was one of the worst writen post ever, a lot of spelling errors and grammer issues. I'm not generaly one to talk given my own record on spelling and grammer, but then again I'm not running an advocacy group like 1ABvote.

 

I agree. And as somone mentioned in the other thread, it's not usual to group the numbers by Party rather than by region.

Basement Dweller

grammar Laughing

NorthReport
nittanylionstorm07

 

Lol someone deleted all of the polls showing the NDP in the lead except Forum.

Marco C

Basement Dweller wrote:

grammar Laughing

 

I think my point has been made Foot in mouth

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Basement Dweller wrote:

grammar Laughing

and grampar?Surprised

NorthReport

WR - 39 seats

NDP - 24 seats

PC - 21 seats

 

44 seats required for majority

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/alberta-2015-election-p...

Orangutan
Brachina

 The 1abvote survey has the NDP at 44%. 308's highest estimate for.the NDP is 40.7%, which 308 would expect net the NDP 51 seats, so if 1abvote is right the Alberta NDP could be looking at over 51 seats, perhaps 60?

Brachina

 The 1abvote survey has the NDP at 44%. 308's highest estimate for.the NDP is 40.7%, which 308 would expect net the NDP 51 seats, so if 1abvote is right the Alberta NDP could be looking at over 51 seats, perhaps 60?

Brachina

 The 1abvote survey has the NDP at 44%. 308's highest estimate for.the NDP is 40.7%, which 308 would expect net the NDP 51 seats, so if 1abvote is right the Alberta NDP could be looking at over 51 seats, perhaps 60?

Basement Dweller

Why do all these predictors have the Liberals with three seats in Calgary?

nittanylionstorm07

Basement Dweller wrote:

Why do all these predictors have the Liberals with three seats in Calgary?

 

Because predictors are usually based off of the last election where the Liberals were more competitive in Calgary.  They slip through with the destruction of the province-wide PC vote.

nittanylionstorm07

I'm going to point everyone to Frank Graves' (EKOS pollster) twitter account.

Just go see.

Northern-54

For those who are not good at computers (old guys like me)...

 

Ekos results:

 

NDP 39.6%

PC 23%

Wildrose 23%

Liberal 6.7%

Alberta Party 4.6%

 

nittanylionstorm07

Northern-54 wrote:

For those who are not good at computers (old guys like me)...

 

Ekos results:

 

NDP 39.6%

PC 23%

Wildrose 23%

Liberal 6.7%

Alberta Party 4.6%

 

 

Just remember this is an embargoed draft with more results being added to it tonight

Policywonk

I'll wait to see the regional breakdowns. Looks like it is consistent overall with the AB1 vote survey, at least in the NDP trend. If the PC and the WR votes were split in the right locations. a majority is possible.

Pages