Alberta Polls

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Policywonk

I'll wait to see the regional breakdowns. Looks like it is consistent overall with the AB1 vote survey, at least in the NDP trend. If the PC and the WR votes were split in the right locations. a majority is possible.

nicky

EKOS is not far off the 1abvote poll which seemed so outlandish it was not taken very seriously when released yesterday. David Akin tweets there are polls by Mainstreet and for the CBC to come later today. With the 2 conservative parties evenly split it will be hard to stampede voters behind one of them. The even split will also maximize NDP seats. The fact that the PCs are running second everywhere will minimize their seats. We may see something like NDP 50, WR 25, PC 10 or even less.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

If Conservative Alberta had the sense of the government in Norway, Prentice would be making announcements about a massive construction program for infrastructure, health, education, and lifestyle. This would have kept the workforce in Alberta, and all the construction equipment which is now being sold off to the highest bidder. (as you would have seen if you watched the National on CBC last night)

In some places, the oil companies have to give the government a third or half of their revenues as royalties, and it does not stop them from investing there. The resource belongs to all of Alberta, not just the [Progressive] Conservative Party and its friends in the oil industry.

There are great opportunities for clean energy in Alberta. There is a lot of sunshine, and there is wind off the foohills. With more sustainable industry providing a clean baseload, there is more money for employees in the service sector, and especially in the public sector. Also, with renewables, the economy is less sucsceptible to bad fluctuations and a boom-bust cycle.

The Americans have stated quite clearly that they should consume our oil before consuming their own. In that case, we should be leaving ours in the ground.

 

GTY

Exclusive CBC poll done by "Return On Insight" has been published here:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-poll-sho...

Northern-54

Leger Poll:

 

NDP:   38%

Conservative:   30%

Wild Rose:   24%

Liberal:  6%

Other: 2%

 

Edmonton:

 

NDP:  56%

Conservative: 21%

Wild Rose: 16%

 

Calgary:

 

Conservative:  33%

NDP: 30%

Wild Rose: 26%

 

Outside Major Cities:

 

Conservative:  35%

NDP:  30%

Wild Rose:  29%

 

NorthReport

Please include links with the stats - thanks.

NorthReport

NDP holds clear lead among decided voters: poll

http://www.canada.com/news/alberta-politics/holds+clear+lead+among+decid...

 

NorthReport

Notley - 33%

Prentice - 24%, and dropping like a stone

One in three Albertans believe NDP's Notley best choice for premier: poll

One in three Albertans think the NDP’s Rachel Notley would make the best premier — and 44 per cent in Edmonton — but current PC premier Jim Prentice is nearly as popular in Calgary and rural Alberta.

However, 51 per cent of Albertans say their opinion of Prentice has worsened in the past month — compared with 10 per cent who say it’s improved — while 47 per cent say their opinion of Notley has improved, according to a Leger poll conducted for the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal.

“What is very interesting is how poorly people are perceiving Jim Prentice now,” said Ian Large, Leger’s Alberta vice-president.

“Last year and in the fall he was riding very high in the polls and people very much liked him. Clearly over the last month or so, people’s opinions of him worsened considerably.”


http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/one-in-three-albertans-believe-nd...

NorthReport

Truly amazin'  Laughing

Alberta general election, 2015

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015

josh

 

New @ThinkHQInc poll for CTV shows among decided voters: NDP 39%, Wildrose 27% PC 20%.   Margin of error +/-2.1%

NorthReport
NorthReport
josh
NorthReport

Concerning Ipsos Reid with the right-wing split right down the middle and Wildrose just a bit ahead it  looks like it could be the perfect storm for the NDP. 

NorthReport

Alberta Election: New poll has Alberta NDP increasing their lead among decided voters

The Alberta NDP have expanded their lead in Alberta among decided voters leading up to the May 5 election, now a healthy 12 percentage points ahead of the second-place Wildrose party, according to new poll results.

Now at 39 per cent, the NDP lead among decided voters, with the Wildrose at 27 per cent and the PC Party at 20 per cent.


http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1355805/alberta-election-new-poll-has-a...

NorthReport

NDP - 42.2%

PC - 23.1%

WR - 21.3%

Lib - 6.3%

 

Orange Chinook!

LBERTA NDP LEAD RE-INFORCED BY VOTE SPLITTING

[Ottawa – April 30, 2015] This week’s poll results present a radical change from the 2012 Alberta provincial election and we are looking at a very real possibility of Alberta switching governments for only the fourth time in its history. Overall, there are three very interesting stories underlying these results:

1.) Breathtaking change is possible

After 43 years and 12 consecutive majority governments, it appears that Albertans may well be sending the Progressive Conservative Association to the showers. Indeed, with these figures, the NDP is not only on track to win, but they may well be headed to a majority. An important point to note, however, is that the Alberta NDP relies heavily on younger voters, who have a long history of poor turnout. Therefore, the Alberta NDP’s biggest challenge will be ensuring their supporters actually get out and vote. Nevertheless, it is difficult to envision a scenario where differing turnout rates would lead to a 19-point-plus turnaround.


http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/04/orange_chinook/

NorthReport

Even if the vote does shift over the weekend that there is no clear second choice is a big bonus for Notley.

NDP (37%) Poised to Win over Split Wildrose (26%) and PCs (24%), But Half (48%) of Albertans say they could Change Their Vote before E-Day

No Clear Favourite as Second Choice…

The data reveal that there is no clear favourite for second choice, if Albertans do end up changing their mind before Election Day. Overall, 21% would vote Wildrose second, while similar proportions would vote for the NDP (18%) or Liberals (17%) second. Fewer would choose the PCs (12%) second or Alberta Party (9%) second, while 5% would vote for some other party. Nearly two in ten (15%) don’t know who they would vote second or would not vote (2%).


http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6838

Brachina

 I found it interesting that more men then.women.support Notley according to Ekos, that's rare.for an NDP leader even.when in the front.

Brachina

 I found it interesting that more men then.women.support Notley according to Ekos, that's rare.for an NDP leader even.when in the front.

NorthReport

Mainstreet Technoligies will be out with their last poll tomorrow

The Abacus Poll out today showing the Conservatives 8% ahead of the Liberals who are now only 4% ahead of the NDP federally, and the Alberta Liberals disappearing off the electoral map in Alberta has our Liberal posters here running for the hills which is quite understandable. 

 

 

jjuares

The NDP is going to run up some huge majorities in Edmonton so I am not sure a 10 percent gap is enough for them to win.

NorthReport

So who do you think is going to win?

jjuares wrote:
The NDP is going to run up some huge majorities in Edmonton so I am not sure a 10 percent gap is enough for them to win.

NorthReport

Boosted by polls, NDP's Notley shrugs off new PC attack ads

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/notley-says-shes-encouraged-by-po...

NorthReport

Does everyone know how to say NDP MAJORITY GOVERNMENT?

NDP - 44%

WR - 26%

PC - 21%

 

NDP surges in final Mainstreet poll of campaign

The Alberta NDP could be set to win a majority government on May 5, according to a new poll that shows the party with a massive lead provincewide and ahead in every region.

The final poll of the campaign by Mainstreet Technologies shows the NDP with 44 per cent support among decided voters compared to 26 per cent for the Wildrose Party and 21 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, who have governed Alberta since 1971.

The Liberals come in at five per cent and the Alberta Party at three per cent.

“The NDP surge is staggering,” said Mainstreet president Quito Maggi in an interview Thursday. “It’s going to be an NDP government.”

 

 

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ndp-surges-in-final-mainstreet-po...

 

 

Northern-54

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/poll-shows-huge-surge-in-ndp-support-1.2353533

 

NDP -- 44%

Wild Rose -- 26%

Conservative -- 21%

Liberal -- 5%

Alberta Party -- 3%

 

 

NorthReport

‘The more they struggle, the more votes they send the NDP': Already too late for the Alberta PCs, pollster says

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/the-more-they...

NorthReport
NorthReport
jerrym

You know the world is a changing when Ralph Klein's daughter not only endorses the NDP but says that Albertans should scrap the flat tax that he created (url includes video of her statement).

Quote:

Call it another kind of Klein revolution.

Angie Klein, daughter of former PC Premier Ralph Klein, is backing the NDP in the May 5 provincial election.

In a video posted to YouTube, Klein said she was “very proud” of many of the things done by her father’s Progressive Conservative government.

“But one of the things I’m least proud of is the flat tax,” she said.

ttp://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/ralph-kleins-daughter-endorsing-ndp-in-2015-alberta-election

 

 

NorthReport

Where are the May Day rallies taking place in Alberta today?  Wink

NEW GOVERNMENT ‘INEVITABLE

http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/new-government-inevitable/

Poll shows huge surge in NDP support

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/poll-shows-huge-surge-in-ndp-support-1.2353533

Debater

Interesting story.

Notley made it clear today that Mulcair has nothing to do with her campaign and that she hasn't even spoken to him in months.

So if Mulcair & the Federal NDP try to piggyback off her success, the fact that he was kept out of the Alberta election may be thrown back at him by the media & other political parties.

Mulscare: NDP’s Notley says Thomas Mulcair has no influence in Alberta campaign

The Canadian Press — May 1 2015

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/05/01/mulscare-ndps-notley-says-th...

Howard

The Mainstreet Poll would give the NDP a majority government, which is why it is almost certainly wrong. Declaring the results final a week before election day is also quite the stunt (poll was completed April 29).

Jacob Two-Two

Mulcair doesn't have to do anything or make any connection. The NDP forming government in Alberta (if that happens) will be a huge shift in Canada's political landscape. The NDP is already a more credible option than they ever have been in the past. This puts them in a whole new category.

nicky

I can't help but note, in response to debater's ignoble post #231, that Justin has not campaigned in the Alberta election.

Brachina

 Notley probably hasn't spoken with Mulcair in months, but that doesn't mean.he's had no influence, her platform looks an aweful lot like his, 15$ minium wage, rejection of Northern Gateway vs. pipeline eastwards, increasing corporate taxes, ect... not to mention some of her team is also nominated federally. And lets not kid our selves, they likely share people behind the scenes. So does the rejection of rip it and ship it economic philosphy. Mulcair did tweet he wished his friend Notley good luck.

 Why do people assume Mulcair is unpopular in Alberta, I've seen nothing to indicate that. Still Tom seems to be steering clear of Alberta during this election, where as Tom and Horwath seem closer, or Tom and a variety of other NDP provincial leaders seem closer.

 Notley's approach and Platform are closer to Tom Mulcair's then any other provincial NDP leader.

 I do remember reading an article where she was lightly critical of Tom on the issue of Isreal and Palastine.

nicky

Recent polls put the federal NDP in the mid 20s in Alberta. One even had them at 30%. And that was before the Notley surge. 

Debater is only applying his tired brand of sneering and mendacity. Mercifully we haven't heard much from him recently and hopefully after letting off his latest stink bomb he will slink back into his Liberal sewer.

NorthReport

+

adma

nicky wrote:

Recent polls put the federal NDP in the mid 20s in Alberta. One even had them at 30%. And that was before the Notley surge. 

Debater is only applying his tired brand of sneering and mendacity. Mercifully we haven't heard much from him recently and hopefully after letting off his latest stink bomb he will slink back into his Liberal sewer.

 

I'm also thinking back to terrytowel's trying to entertain the notion of the PCs trying a "the NDP can't win; only the PCs can defeat Wildrose" unite-the-left tactic...

NorthReport

Any more polls expected before E-Day?

Pierre C yr

I think we will have to take a deep breath after the election and try to figure out what happened. The old standbys of tory voters shift to NDP in election, not libs, or the fact the NDP had its start in Alberta (yea ages ago) and is well established in Sask and BC doesnt really explain it. I do sense the electorate is volatile but why did Alberta choose the NDP over the libs or Alberta party? I was for a time thinking the west was so averse to anything federal or eastern that they could only elect parties that carry the provincial theme or name. That aversion explains the lack of federal involvement in western provincials usually, unlike a place like Ontario. Justin stayed far away from this campaign as well as no one in the west wants people to think they are beholden to eastern politics.

 

I think Prentice missed some obvious things and maybe the 40 000 oil workers laid off suddenly, some of them at bus stops waiting for that days shift, has more to do with it than anything special done on the campaign trail. Notley ran a good clean campaign. She even managed to avoid scrutiny of her relatively shallow bench. But I think her platform was pretty modest. Not sure she can save Alberta's economy with it.

 

NorthReport

Who would make the best next premier?

 

http://www.newstalk770.com/2015/05/01/63172/

NorthReport

Wonder who will be the most accurate pollster on Tuesday nite, taking herding into account, which means taking all the polls published from an individual pollster between Apr 13 to May 4 and averaging their totals.

Right now here are some results:

 

Mainstreet Technologies (4 polls)

PC - 24%

WR - 31%

NDP - 34%

 

Ipsos Reid (one poll)

PC - 24% 

WR  - 26%

NDP - 37%

 

EKOS (one poll)

PC - 23%

WR - 21%

NDP - 42%

 

Think HQ (one poll)

PC - 20%

WR - 27%

NDP - 39%

 

Leger Marketing (one poll)

PC - 30%

WR - 24%

NDP - 38%

 

Reurn On Insight (one poll)

PC - 24%

WR - 21%

NDP - 38%

 

Forum Research (one poll)

PC - 20%

WR - 25%

NDP - 38%

 

 

 

 

 

mark_alfred

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Mulcair doesn't have to do anything or make any connection. The NDP forming government in Alberta (if that happens) will be a huge shift in Canada's political landscape. The NDP is already a more credible option than they ever have been in the past. This puts them in a whole new category.

Agreed. 

mark_alfred

Pierre C yr wrote:

I think Prentice missed some obvious things and maybe the 40 000 oil workers laid off suddenly, some of them at bus stops waiting for that days shift, has more to do with it than anything special done on the campaign trail. Notley ran a good clean campaign. She even managed to avoid scrutiny of her relatively shallow bench. But I think her platform was pretty modest. Not sure she can save Alberta's economy with it.

I think Notley's appeal as leader had a lot to do with it.  If it was simply people wanting to punish the PCs, then Wildrose would have been the choice.  And for a while they were, but Notley came across as more credible. 

NorthReport

Up until and including yesterday's poll showed the NDP trending up. Contrary to the right-wing bullshit being spewed out in the msp, It's possible that the NDP has picked up more support since then. How is everyone who posts here doing with their seat projections?

pebbles

NorthReport wrote:

Up until and including yesterday's poll showed the NDP trending up. Contrary to the right-wing bullshit being spewed out in the msp, It's possible that the NDP has picked up more support since then. How is everyone who posts here doing with their seat projections?

I think the NDP could end on an "uptick" as well, enough to tilt a lot of otherwise marginal seats, and turn a big victory into a whopping one.

Judging by the increasingly shrill garbage that the PCs and federal Tories are getting on with, that's what their internal numbers are telling them, too. They are in "save the furniture" mode... only problem is that there might not be any furniture left to save!

pebbles

NorthReport wrote:

Up until and including yesterday's poll showed the NDP trending up. Contrary to the right-wing bullshit being spewed out in the msp, It's possible that the NDP has picked up more support since then. How is everyone who posts here doing with their seat projections?

I think the NDP could end on an "uptick" as well, enough to tilt a lot of otherwise marginal seats, and turn a big victory into a whopping one.

Judging by the increasingly shrill garbage that the PCs and federal Tories are getting on with, that's what their internal numbers are telling them, too. They are in "save the furniture" mode... only problem is that there might not be any furniture left to save!

Brachina

 I think in they're panick they're breaking more furniture then they're saving.

Brachina

 I think in they're panick they're breaking more furniture then they're saving.

Pierre C yr

NorthReport wrote:

Up until and including yesterday's poll showed the NDP trending up. Contrary to the right-wing bullshit being spewed out in the msp, It's possible that the NDP has picked up more support since then. How is everyone who posts here doing with their seat projections?

Polls seem to say majority at 46+ seats. I think if they do get a majority it will be a bare one ... 73% in Edmonton in a ~38% provincial rate is a grossly inefficient vote. I think more likely 30 seats which would be a major breakthrough. Ill be more than happy to eat my words on Tuesday if they do better than 30.

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