Alberta Polls

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Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Wonder who will be the most accurate pollster on Tuesday nite, taking herding into account, which means taking all the polls published from an individual pollster between Apr 13 to May 4 and averaging their totals.

Right now here are some results:

 

Mainstreet Technologies (4 polls)

PC - 24%

WR - 31%

NDP - 34%

Averaging polls over time makes no sense. It's the trend that's important.

Rokossovsky

I agree.

Pierre C yr wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Up until and including yesterday's poll showed the NDP trending up. Contrary to the right-wing bullshit being spewed out in the msp, It's possible that the NDP has picked up more support since then. How is everyone who posts here doing with their seat projections?

Polls seem to say majority at 46+ seats. I think if they do get a majority it will be a bare one ... 73% in Edmonton in a ~38% provincial rate is a grossly inefficient vote. I think more likely 30 seats which would be a major breakthrough. Ill be more than happy to eat my words on Tuesday if they do better than 30.

Yeah, I am thinking 30 seats. That said the split right vote, could also prove beneficial and compensate for the inefficiency of the Edmonton vote.

I say the best is majority, or official opposition. Minority would be impossible give who they would have to partner with -- they would end up with egg on their faces.

nicky

Forum poll out this morning:

NDP  42

WR 24

PC 21

L  5

AP  5

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/edmonton/continues+surge+Alberta+say...

 

Yes i know it's Forum but it confirms what other polls show. It matches Mainstream in giving the NDP an 18 point lead, it's largest of the election.

It also confirms that the Cons are running THIRD and are in for an absolute drubbing.

Northern-54

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/continues+surge+Alberta+says+poll/1102490...

 

NDP -- 42%

Conservatives - 21%

Wild Rose - 24%

Liberal 5%

Alberta Party 5%

 

Poll taken on May 2

NorthReport

Forum Poll

Decided voters - May 2, 2015

NDP - 42%, Up 4%

WR - 24%, Down 1%

PC - 21%, Up 1%

AP - 6%, Down 1%

Lib - 5%, Down 2%

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/edmonton/continues+surge+Alberta+say...

Northern-54
Brachina

 If the NDP wins a huge majority like that and the PCs are reduced to 2 seats it likely means the death of the PCs, Wildrose will like just absorb them. I prefer they continue to exist though to continue dividing the rightwing vote.

Glenl

It's encouraging in the breakdown of the forum poll to see NDP support consistent throughout the entire range of incomes, from 0 to 250k+.

bekayne

I hate to sound like a broken record but:

only 21% will admit to voting Wildrose in 2012, but 42% are proud to admit they voted for the PCs?

NorthReport
scott16

Northern-54 wrote:

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/continues+surge+Alberta+says+poll/1102490...

 

NDP -- 42%

Conservatives - 21%

Wild Rose - 24%

Liberal 5%

Alberta Party 5%

 

Poll taken on May 2

Does anyone else find it funny that the URL doesn't say NDP continues surging?

 

NorthReport

Right-wing media doing their dirty deeds.

An accurate headline would be:

Leading Alberta NDP increased their support by 4% to 42% in latest poll as the PCs continue to languish in last place

bekayne
NorthReport

It does not appear to be anywhere near the same situation this year and the poll out today is showing the NDP increasing its support by 4% to 42%.

It is now looking like Prentice will not even win his own seat.

NorthReport

Understandably this must indeed be very painstaking for Liberals to watch:

2 days ago we see this headline:

Poll shows huge surge in NDP support

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/poll-shows-huge-surge-in-ndp-support-1.2353533

Then this morning we see this

NDP continues to surge in Alberta, says poll

The difference this election is even if some people want to change their mind at the last minute where do the voters go as the right is split down the middle.

 

Howard

Forum's polling in the last Alberta election wasn't worth a warm bucket of spit. At least the result is positive for the NDP.

NorthReport

But here's the thing - it is not just Forum:

Latest polling for the NDP

Forum - 42%

Mainstreet - 44%

Ipsos Reid - 37%

EKOS - 42.2%

ThinkHQ - 39%

Leger - 38%

ROI - 38%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015#Opinion_polls

 

nicky

New EKOS:

Frank Graves @VoiceOfFranky · 2h2 hours ago

We have been updating polling in Alberta this weekend. I would say the fat lady is singing/ NDP at 43/WRP 26/PC 22 and so on...#Abvote

 

Since last EKOS last Thurs:

NDP  +1

WR    +5

PC     -1

 

NorthReport

Great news nicky!

Pollsters see Alberta NDP government as near certainty

But David Valentin, with Mainstreet, said the polling firm doesn’t foresee a similar trend this time out.

“We’re not seeing anything that would suggest there is going to be a tightening,” he said. “Based on what we’re seeing right now, the math just isn’t there for Jim Prentice to win.”

Province-wide, Main Street’s poll, released Friday and conducted last Wednesday, showed the NDP at 38 per cent, with the Wildrose second at 23 per cent and the Tories third at 18 per cent.

Valentin said there could be some voters who like the notion of a strong opposition, but will shrink away from voting NDP into government.

“Obviously, it will take some time for it to sink in that the NDP might actually win and maybe they will take some action as a result,” he said.

But Valentin said even if that happens the NDP will hold onto a victory.

Marc Henry, with Think HQ polling, said this election is dramatically different from 2012.

“The last week in 2012 the Wildrose momentum dropped heavily into negative territory within the last 10 days of the campaign,” he said. “That’s not happening this time.”

He said the big challenge for the NDP on election day will be making sure their vote actually turns up, especially in ridings where their presence has been limited before.


http://metronews.ca/news/edmonton/1358410/pollsters-see-alberta-ndp-gove...

NorthReport

Éric Grenier @308dotcom · 10h10 hours ago

Avg. lead in last week by Wildrose over PCs in 2012: 8 pts. NDP over BC Liberals in 2013: 7 pts. AB NDP over PCs in 2015: 17 pts. #abvote

73 retweets22 favoritesReply

 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Éric Grenier @308dotcom · 10h10 hours ago

Avg. lead in last week by Wildrose over PCs in 2012: 8 pts. NDP over BC Liberals in 2013: 7 pts. AB NDP over PCs in 2015: 17 pts. #abvote

73 retweets22 favoritesReply

 

The question is, how far ahead of Wildrose does the NDP need to be to win a majority?

Pierre C yr

Some say latest numbers show NDP leading in all age and income groups. If no one under 35 votes they still win. Thats pretty amazing... I saw 30 seats at 38% but now I think its a 50+ seat landslide at 42%.

NorthReport

EKOS released their last poll for the period Apr 25 to  April 29 with the following results:

NDP - 42%

WR - 21%

PC - 23%

They will be coming out with another poll today.

NorthReport

The EKOS poll: The NDP headed for a blowout win in Alberta

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/04/the-ekos-poll-the-ndp-headed-for-a-bl...

Policywonk

That's no help unless you buy a subscription.

Policywonk
Winston

Some of us might have a free student subscription...

A personal message might help, in that case! ;)

Policywonk wrote:

That's no help unless you buy a subscription.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

The EKOS poll: The NDP headed for a blowout win in Alberta

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/04/the-ekos-poll-the-ndp-headed-for-a-bl...

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/05/alberta-ndp-headed-to-a-wi...

NDP 44.3% and ahead in every demographic and region (Edmonton, Calgary and the rest of Alberta)

WR   24% probably ahead in southern rural Alberta

PC 22.5% ahead nowhere and headed for single digits

Lib  5.6%  

AB             2.2% 

Other         1.4%

If this is correct it will be indeed be a landslide. The Liberals and Alberta party may be shut out and Prentice may well lose his seat.

 

NorthReport

Woo! Hoo!

EKOS

Apr 29 - May 3

NDP - 44%

WR - 24%

PC - 23%

Fantastic news for Rachel Notley on  the eve of the election - the perfect political storm for the NDP

Alberta NDP Headed to a Win, Likely a Majority

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/05/alberta-ndp-headed-to-a-wi...

nicky

Ekos:

http://canadanewshunt.com/posts/ZTJeT245MB9bYaJZY

NDP 42.2 + 2.1 from Thursday

WR 24.0  +1.7

PC 22.5   - 0.6

Lib   5.6 -0.7

 

http://1abvote.ca/ndp-have-momentum-on-social-cue-for-e-day/

NDP 44

WR 22

PC 19

L  10 ???

 

And this from one of the posters on 308.com

 

Thierry Soucie04 May, 2015 13:59

"Wow, with these numbers, my model projects:

72 NDP
10 WR
4 ALP
1 AP

Yup, you see this right, no PC! The ALP and AP are probably both overestimated, but the PC's race are not with them, so it's not really a factor, especially since the ALP vote is more likely to move to the NDP (I don't really know for the AP, but I'd guess it's the same since the ones voting for them probably want some change and the PC out or they wouldn't be voting for such a small party)."

 

Apart from an inflate Liberal seat total this seems quite possible to me. The PCs are a ver distant second in Edmonton and a bad third elsewhere. This is a scenario for them to win virtually no seats.

 

 

Winston

EKOS - May 4 2015

 

Date / NDP / WRP / PCAA / LIB / AP / OTH

25-29 Apr/ 42.2 / 21.3 / 23.1 / 6.3 / 4.6 / 2.6

29 Apr-3 May / 44.3 / 24.0 / 22.5 / 5.6 / 2.2 / 1.4

 

Demographic / NDP / WRP / PCAA / LIB / AP

Men / 41 / 24 / 25 / 8 / 1

Women / 48 / 24 / 20 / 3 / 4

18-34 / 48 / 17 / 24 / 7 / 3

35-49 / 45 / 25 / 21 / 7 / 1

50-64 / 44 / 28 / 19 / 4 / 1

65+ / 36 / 27 / 30 / 4 / 2

 

Education / NDP / WRP / PCAA / LIB / AP

HS / 28 / 26 / 34 / 7 / 2

College / 49 / 26 / 18 / 3 / 3

Univ / 51 / 21 / 18 / 7 / 2

 

Born in Canada / NDP / WRP / PCAA / LIB / AP

No / 52 / 27 / 9 / 8 / 1

Yes (parents No) / 43 / 28 / 25 / 2 / 1

Yes (parents Yes) / 43 / 21 / 25 / 7 / 3

 

Region / NDP / WRP / PCAA / LIB / AP

Calgary CMA / 41 / 22 / 22 / 9 / 5

Edmonton CMA / 59 / 18 / 19 / 2 / 0

Rest of Alberta / 36 / 31 / 26 / 5 / 1

 

NorthReport

It sure looks like Prentice, Harper, and Trudeau are fucked in Alberta

EKOS

Party / Apr 29 / May 3 / Change

NDP / 42% / 44% / Up 2%

WR / 21% / 24% / Up 3%

PC / 23% / 23% / Unchanged

Winston

NorthReport wrote:

It sure looks like Prentice, Harper, and Trudeau are fucked in Alberta

Let's not break out the bubbly just yet. At least a quarter of the votes Alberta's NDP is going to get tomorrow are from dyed-in-the-wool Harper supporters. It's a populist vote, more than a left-wing one.

The results of this election will need to be well-spun from now until Sunday to have an impact federally. Incidentally, I am sure they will be! 

Howard

Last EKOS (Apr 29-May 3):

NDP 44%

WR 24%

PC 23%

LIB 6%

AP 2%

OTH 1%

---

 

EKOS overestimates the progressive vote, but the trend across polls is still up for the NDP. I think the result is going to be a lot closer on election night than the polls show, even so, how high does the NDP have to go in the polls before they actually win?

NorthReport

Probably where they are now.

If anything the NDP is still gaining support.

The key is get out the vote effort tomorrow before the hockey game.

josh
NorthReport

Insights West

 

Party / Mar 30 / May 4 / Change

NDP / 22% / 42% / Up 20%

WR / 27% / 27% / Unchanged

PC / 31% / 23% / Down 8%

Lib / 14% / 4% / Down 10%

 

NorthReport

ThinkHQ

No fear happening! 

NDP - 42%, Up 3%

WR - 25%, Down 2%

PC- 25%, Down 5%

 

As reported on CTV today

Howard

Very strong numbers for the NDP.

NorthReport

Re: EKOS regionals:

Those are phenomenial stats for Calgary.

I hear they are also doing very well in places like Red Deer, Leithbridge, and some other smaller urban centres.

It would be great to also see some rural NDP seats in the mix.

 

NorthReport

EKOS

This election shows the power of a unified progressive vote (bolstered by the labour vote). This election is unfolding in a jurisdiction which — in a reversal of the federal scene — features a split right-wing vote and a united progressive vote. Furthermore, we have seen a remarkable rejection of Progressive Conservatives by Alberta’s university- educated ‘elite’.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/05/04/the-ekos-poll-the-ndp-headed-for-a-bl...

NorthReport

What good are polls anyway?

Election polls help inform voters and turn elections into sporting events, but it’s hard to predict how they influence voting

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/05/04/what-good-are-polls-anyway...

Malcontent

I really really hope I am wrong but I believe later tomorrow we will be talking about how the polls were so off yet again....I just can not see the NDP winning in Alberta, people will get to the ballot box and at the last minute return home to the cons.

Glenl

Malcontent wrote:

I really really hope I am wrong but I believe later tomorrow we will be talking about how the polls were so off yet again....I just can not see the NDP winning in Alberta, people will get to the ballot box and at the last minute return home to the cons.

You may be right but I hope not. I didn't hesitate. I don't think it will end in an NDP landslide. I'll be happy with 44 seats but who knows, it's a strange election to ponder.

NorthReport

Notley’s Leadership Pulls NDP Ahead of Rivals in Alberta

Since the start of the campaign, Notley’s approval and momentum numbers have improved markedly, as PC Party loses support from voters aged 55 and over.

Calgary, AB – A large majority of Albertans head into tomorrow’s provincial election believing a new party should be in charge of the Legislative Assembly, a new Insights West poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 82% of Albertans believe it is time for a change of government in the province—including 77% of residents aged 55 and over, and 69% of those who voted for the Progressive Conservative Party in the 2012 election.


http://www.insightswest.com/news/notleys-leadership-pulls-ndp-ahead-of-r...

Policywonk

Glenl wrote:
Malcontent wrote:

I really really hope I am wrong but I believe later tomorrow we will be talking about how the polls were so off yet again....I just can not see the NDP winning in Alberta, people will get to the ballot box and at the last minute return home to the cons.

You may be right but I hope not. I didn't hesitate. I don't think it will end in an NDP landslide. I'll be happy with 44 seats but who knows, it's a strange election to ponder.

It depends on GOTV and vote splits. I'm thinking that it will be a landslide in Edmonton, possibly most of the seats in Calgary and enough seats in the north and other communities for a solid majority, but not of Lougheed proportions.

Policywonk

Glenl wrote:
Malcontent wrote:

I really really hope I am wrong but I believe later tomorrow we will be talking about how the polls were so off yet again....I just can not see the NDP winning in Alberta, people will get to the ballot box and at the last minute return home to the cons.

You may be right but I hope not. I didn't hesitate. I don't think it will end in an NDP landslide. I'll be happy with 44 seats but who knows, it's a strange election to ponder.

It depends on GOTV and vote splits. I'm thinking that it will be a landslide in Edmonton, possibly most of the seats in Calgary and enough seats in the north and other communities for a solid majority, but not of Lougheed proportions.

Glenl

I'm a bit concerned about Calgary.

jjuares

Well I am going to be at the celebration tomorrow once the polls close. I believe it is at the Coast Hotel. And I really do think it will be a celebration.

josh

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