Alberta Polls

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ilha formosa

Winston wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

It sure looks like Prentice, Harper, and Trudeau are fucked in Alberta

Let's not break out the bubbly just yet. At least a quarter of the votes Alberta's NDP is going to get tomorrow are from dyed-in-the-wool Harper supporters. It's a populist vote, more than a left-wing one.

The results of this election will need to be well-spun from now until Sunday to have an impact federally. Incidentally, I am sure they will be! 

Can’t translate it into federal results so easily. The Alberta PCs have held power for 44 years, and the Notley factor is huge. Also, the provincial NDP needs to be very judicious in its first days. Stupid moves, which I don’t foresee, would trigger a backlash and conceivably a federal Conservative majority.

I’m thinking the actions of the voters who elected Nenshi as mayor will decide if it’s a majority or minority NDP government.

Howard

I can't allow myself to believe the polls because the disappointment will be too great when on election night we see the usual and expected result of the conservatives forming government. Factors that I think will narrow the gap:

1) PC electoral machine

They have a GOTV effort that is vastly superior to that of any of the competitor parties and they know how to make contact with their membership and mobilise them.

2) Regional numbers

Forum's latest poll had the NDP at 45%. Stunning result, but...look at all of the regional breakdowns outside of Edmonton and Calgary and the Wildrose and NDP are statistically tied. This is the problem, if the "change" voters are overpolled (and for several elections now conservative voters have been underpolled), then the result in these areas is a toss-up. Calgary also has the outlines of a race where the NDP would win some but not all seats. Edmonton looks like an NDP landslide. To win the government, the NDP needs a lot more than just Edmonton, so it remains to be seen if Calgary can provide enough seats to cover for what is looks to be a weaker performance in the other (North, South, and Centre) regions of the province.

3) Who gets polled

Alberta has experienced so much growth over the last ten years that it is hardly any wonder how hard it is to poll. Cities, housing, everything has not been able to keep up with the pace of growth at times. Polling companies are no different. Managing to build good call and poll lists must be a major challenge- it's hard enough in provinces that have been relatively static just because of the decline of land lines. Edmonton and Calgary have over 2 million inhabitants between them, and are easier to poll than the rest of the province but only represent half the population and half the seats.

We'll have to wait and see. On the conservative side, Lorne Gunter's column today read like the warm-up to a concession speech.

nicky

I agree that the numbers look too good to be true, but that doesn't mean they are not.

Slot the poll numbers into this simulator. ( I have used today's Forum numbers but you can put in anything you like)

The numbers are astounding.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/alberta-2015-simulator.html

It may be that the NDP concentration in Edmonton may limit gains elsewhere. But the NDP is running first everywhere except maybe the rural south.

The PC vote may be "efficient" at high levels becaus it is relatively even accross the province but it becomes very inefficient at the low levels relected in the polls precisely because there is no geographical concentrtion.

There is good reason to expect the PCs to be reduced to a handful of seats. Zero is an outside possibility.

Pierre C yr

Oddly as long as the NDP gets a majority Id be happier with the tories reduced to zero even if its with wildrose help, better without of course, as it would have serious ramifications for the federal tories.

 

 

Basement Dweller

A massive NDP majority would send the right-wing into disarray. This is important as it will allow a Notley NDP government some breathing room from corporate attacks.

GTY

Howard wrote:

I can't allow myself to believe the polls because the disappointment will be too great when on election night we see the usual and expected result of the conservatives forming government. Factors that I think will narrow the gap:

1) PC electoral machine

They have a GOTV effort that is vastly superior to that of any of the competitor parties and they know how to make contact with their membership and mobilise them.

2) Regional numbers

Forum's latest poll had the NDP at 45%. Stunning result, but...look at all of the regional breakdowns outside of Edmonton and Calgary and the Wildrose and NDP are statistically tied. This is the problem, if the "change" voters are overpolled (and for several elections now conservative voters have been underpolled), then the result in these areas is a toss-up. Calgary also has the outlines of a race where the NDP would win some but not all seats. Edmonton looks like an NDP landslide. To win the government, the NDP needs a lot more than just Edmonton, so it remains to be seen if Calgary can provide enough seats to cover for what is looks to be a weaker performance in the other (North, South, and Centre) regions of the province.

3) Who gets polled

Alberta has experienced so much growth over the last ten years that it is hardly any wonder how hard it is to poll. Cities, housing, everything has not been able to keep up with the pace of growth at times. Polling companies are no different. Managing to build good call and poll lists must be a major challenge- it's hard enough in provinces that have been relatively static just because of the decline of land lines. Edmonton and Calgary have over 2 million inhabitants between them, and are easier to poll than the rest of the province but only represent half the population and half the seats.

We'll have to wait and see. On the conservative side, Lorne Gunter's column today read like the warm-up to a concession speech.

 

I'm not sure the PC electoral machine is "vastly" superior in ALL of the 87 ridings.  Certainly, going into the election, they planned for and placed a lot of resources in what they expected to be the most competative ridings.  In the case where the NDP was competative going into the election a strong "Maginot Line" would have been put in place.  But the NDP has become far too strong in those competative ridings.

In many of the ridings where the PC's expected a cake walk, they may have a "superior" GOTV machine compared to other parties, but in actual fact innefectual to really make a dent in the numbers.

The Conservatives also have to face up against the mood of their own supporters.  Many of them also believe that it is time for a change.  Some of them may be very cranky and decide to stay at home.

I predict that PC E-day workers are coming up against supporters who don't want to vote, split households where they remind the NDP supporters to vote, as well as "supporters" who are no longer supporters.  That happens to all parties in all elections but it is going to be much more so for them in this election.

 

I understand the concept of the "change" voters seem disproportionately higher because they are believed to answer the polling questions rather than hang up.  But there has been a drop in PC support at the beginning of the campaign and during and after the leaders debate.  The NDP has picked up support from all the other political parties and that has not stopped.

Your comments regarding polls are valid and apply all over Alberta.  They have less meaning in Edmonton because the NDP is so far ahead of everyon else.

In Calgary, where the races are tighter is is meaningful to question the polls.  I'm just saying that because of the trends, your concerns would apply more a week ago than today.

jerrym

Basement Dweller wrote:

A massive NDP majority would send the right-wing into disarray. This is important as it will allow a Notley NDP government some breathing room from corporate attacks.

Do you really think coropoations that are members of the richest industry in the world would give up attacking the NDP after a massive NDP victory?

They would instead massively fund whatever exising right-wing party or create a new one, as well as even more ultra-right think tanks to manufacture abundant and widespread media copy, as happened after the NDP won a massive victory in BC in 1975. They funded the already existing Socred party (aka right-wing coalition of pre-existing Socred, Libs and Cons) and when that failed they funded the new BC Liberal party, which has more Cons than Libs. They also created the Fraser Institute as a megaphone to spread their views and drown out others.

Any kind of NDP victory or even near-victory will create an avalanche of support for whatever right-wing causes, think tanks, media or parties they think will bring them back to power. The NDP needs to be ready for this like a mountaineer going into avalanche country.

 

josh

Forum came closest to the NDP number.  Ipsos (not surprisingly) had the NDP lower than any other pollster.

Leger came closest to the PC number, while Leger, Forum and Ekos nailed the WR number.

 

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2015/05/how-did-polls-perform-for-2015-alberta.html

NorthReport

Election Results

NDP - 41%, PC - 28%, WR - 24%

Pollsters in their last poll who came the closest to the 3 parties above in best to worst accuracy order and by how much they were off:

Leger / -5%

EKOS / -7%

Ipsos Reid / -10%

Return on Insight / -10%

Forum Reasearch / -10%

Insights West / -11%

Mainstreet Technologies / -12%

ThinkHQ / -13%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015#Opinion_polls

NorthReport

Hey Presto - read this and weep!

No regrets about election outcome, say Albertans in new poll

THE UPSHOT?

In our next release, we will explore what Albertans say this election turned on. From these results, a few things that are evident.

First, this was a sweeping consensus for change rather than a divisive result. Few voters are unhappy, many are hopeful. Older voters are more anxious, but in this election, their preferences did not carry the day.

Second, Alberta has long been reputed to be quite conservative and hostile to left of centre politicians, but these results paint a more nuanced picture. That three of four say they could see themselves voting NDP if the Notley government performs well indicates that they think good performance is possible, regardless of partisanship.

Undoubtedly, many of these voters will be looking for pragmatic rather than ideological choices, and in a difficult economic and fiscal context, maintaining this level of  positive feeling among voters will not be easy. But the new Premier starts with much more “benefit of the doubt” than might have been expected. This was not a “hold your nose” choice nor is it characterized as a “devil you don’t know” outcome for the large majority of Albertans.

- See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/no-regrets-about-election-outcome-say-albertans-in-...

 

http://abacusdata.ca/no-regrets-about-election-outcome-say-albertans-in-...

NorthReport
Hunky_Monkey

Odd.  I think it's a rouge poll.  No actions taken or annoucements made would result in a drop to 31% and Wildrose to 40%.  Unless other polls show this, I think Mainstreet/Postmedia will take a hit over it.

NorthReport

Rachel Notley at 59% in latest poll out today by ThinkHQ

NorthReport
Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/poll-alberta-pcs-tories-ndp-wildro... Jason Kenney?[/url]

Quote:
In the May, 2015 provincial election, the Progressive Conservatives lost all but 10 of their seats in the legislature and won just 27.8 per cent of the vote.

But support for the PCs has now bounced back to 38.4 per cent, according to a new poll conducted by the Citizen Society Research Lab at Lethbridge College.

The Wildrose Party is in second place with 25.7 per cent and Rachel Notley's governing NDP is in third place with 19.7 per cent, the poll suggests.

NorthReport

When's the next election?

jjuares

NorthReport wrote:

When's the next election?


2019. As for this poll I have never heard of this s group.It seems to be a product of the the U of L I r a professor from that university.

NorthReport

Lots of time yet to burst Kenney's bubble, eh!

What was his position on TFWs eh!

jjuares

NorthReport wrote:

Lots of time yet to burst Kenney's bubble, eh!

What was his position on TFWs eh!


I am not sure about what his position on TFW. A rise in oil prices is needed to probably save Notley.

Aristotleded24

jjuares wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Lots of time yet to burst Kenney's bubble, eh!

What was his position on TFWs eh!

I am not sure about what his position on TFW. A rise in oil prices is needed to probably save Notley.

Why isn't Notley moving faster on her campaign promise to diversify Alberta's economy to make it less vulnerable to oil price crashes in the first place? I'm sure there's a great deal of public support for that idea within Alberta.

Aristotleded24

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/carbon-tax-poll-opposition-coal-fi... oppose carbon tax, coal plants:[/url]

Quote:
According to the survey released Friday by the Citizen Society Research Lab at Lethbridge College, 67.2 per cent of voting-age Albertans oppose the tax, which is set to take effect in 2017.

"Majorities in all regions of Alberta are opposed to the carbon tax plan," research chair Faron Ellis said in a release for the poll.

...

The Lethbridge College opinion survey also asked voters what they think about the provincial government's plan to phase out coal-fired electricity by 2030.

Overall, a slim majority — 52.5 per cent — supports the plan, but a distinct rural-urban split emerges on the issue, the poll says.

"While slight majorities of Calgary (58.8%) and Edmonton residents (53.9%) are supportive, slight majorities of southern Albertans outside of Calgary (50.7%) and northern Albertans outside of the Edmonton-area (52.2%) opposed."

jjuares

Aristotleded24 wrote:

jjuares wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Lots of time yet to burst Kenney's bubble, eh!

What was his position on TFWs eh!

I am not sure about what his position on TFW. A rise in oil prices is needed to probably save Notley.

Why isn't Notley moving faster on her campaign promise to diversify Alberta's economy to make it less vulnerable to oil price crashes in the first place? I'm sure there's a great deal of public support for that idea within Alberta.


She is trying but this is going to take a generation.

NorthReport

Notley has to start making moves now to win re-elections as Kenney will soon be the leader of the united right in AB 

NorthReport
progressive17 progressive17's picture

A friend took the bus from Calgary to Vancouver and told me she saw an amazing number of wind turbines in the foothills. Sounds like a good place to me!

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