New BC Public Opinion Poll

Good news for the NDP, but I'll be curious to see how the numbers look a year from now, when the HST referendum is a distant memory. We've seen this movie before where the NDP polls very well between elections but the Liberals manage to bounce back in time for the election. I'm cautiously optimistic, but it would be premature to start measuring the drapes in the Cabinet room...

Quite often when the NDP "takes on" economic issues, what that means is they accept the neo-liberal consensus (i.e. tax cuts for companies create jobs) and try to frame that within the context of other popular leftie stuff like health care and education. Dix is actually challenging neo-liberal assumptions already, talking about the need to raise corporate taxes in the name of fairness. A refreshing change, I would hope the rest of the party stands up and takes note.

The BCNDP already had over 40% electoral support under Carole James - higher than Stephen Harper's federal vote share! - but that simply wasn't enough in a 2-party system to form government. So now that the Libservative coalition is coming undone, the distortions of first-past-the-post begin to move in the NDP's favour here.

But really anything could happen at this point. James Cummins is too much of a wingnut to draw more than a fraction of Liberal support (which for now will benefit the NDP), but maybe a few elections in the future the BCCons could become a realistic and frightening threat of a right-wing replacement.

A more likely scenario is that Cummings will grow his support while James continues to tank.

At some point the backroom boys on the right will make a move and throw all their support to one party.  

Then the real action will begin, not before. 

Thanks Pw

I don't think Dix is DISapproved of - it more that people simply don't know him. That being said, I notice that Adrian Dix starting to get a lot of very good press with Robert Mason having done a very flattering piece in the Globe today.

That's probably true, but I would not assume that a higher profile for Dix necessarily means his numbers will go up. Sooner or later the Liberals and their friends in the media are going to crank up their hatchet factory, and we're going to hear nothing but stories about "forged memos" and "Adrian Dix, Glen Clark's right hand man".

Unfair? Totally. But the attacks are going to come, and I hope the NDP is ready for them. In the meantime, Dix should be doing a better job of introducing himself to the electorate on his own terms, before the Liberals and their media buddies get a chance to define him (negatively) in the public's mind.

Just after he was elected leader a couple of the hatchet men at CBC tried to go after him on those terms.  He calmly and cooly listed Glen's accomplishments including his latest awards for being a great businessman.  He flipped it around quite well pointing out that Glen has been more successful at business than any of the Liberal MLA hacks.  He didn't argue he just changed the record to the flip side.

IMO one of Dix's best skills is his ability to not get sucked into the MSM bullshit questions and turn them around so the framing looks petty and stupid.  You have to remember he was there when the MSM attacked Glen with vengeance and I am sure he learnt some lessons that will help in the next campaign.  

Well, you tell me. I am not one of this species I speak of. There exists some configuration of political ideals that would lead someone to support ex-NDP Gregor Robertson's centre-left coalition but also support Campbell-Clark's centre-right coalition over the BCNDP. I would hazard a guess this means some sort of combination of socially progressive values with a side of free-market business-friendliness.

Looking back at the 2009 election, some of these centrists ridiculed James for the "Axe The Tax" campaign against the carbon tax. And justifiably so! I would imagine they were also critical of the NDP's anti-HST stance. Maybe you and I can say that high poverty rates and BC Rail are strikes against the BC Liberals, but our prototypical BC centrist will probably dismiss these, perhaps pointing to previous NDP scandals.

I also think that, while the lefty core of the BCNDP saw James moving to the right, I don't think our proto-centrist saw it that way. Our proto-centrist saw her as opportunistically opposing the Liberals on issues that didn't come off as particularly progressive, and therefore just didn't take her seriously.

I agree with you largely. I just believe that a number of middle-of-the-road BC voters don't agree with you.

You're right, he would not win if COPE ran a left-winger for mayor. The NPA would win. Maybe not Suzanne Anton's NPA, but under the present electoral system if both COPE and Vision ran candidates I would have trouble imagining either one winning.

But that takes us into another thread completely. In the Cadman-lost-his-nomination thread I put forth that the best strategy for COPE to break free of an electoral alliance would be to push for a revised electoral system that would not be vulnerable to "vote splitting".

Or vice-versa (it's easier to maintain power if you have internal coherence and discipline).

So.... I wonder if David Shreck's comment's about Christy Clark's cleavage will give the BC Liberals a boost.

Discuss.

Shreck is a pundit. He is not a politician and he has taken shots at the NDP on occasion as well. His comments will have about as much impact on BC NDP popularity as Ezra Levant's comments will have on federal Tory popularity. In other words NONE.

Exactly.  

He is like Cherry, a dinosaur that should have gone extinct ages ago.

So it appears that the NDP only ever wins by lucking out when the right-wing vote is divided, as currently happens to be the case. This is outside the NDP's control, and the Liberals may even pull higher on election day as right-wing voters hold their noses and vote for the Liberals. So what can the NDP do in order to break through that ceiling and not have to rely on the other team screwing up?

I think what it comes down to is that the NDP has a natural constituency in BC that tops out at somewhere in the 40% range when enough of the swing vote has been brought over (and bottoms out considerably lower when they have fallen out of favour). There is another natural constituency that is clearly contra-NDP, and you see that both in ridings that have always gone either BCLib or Socred provincially, and in federal ridings that have gone Reform and Conservative. It would be incredible if the NDP did pull even further ahead, but as it stands, their terms in government have been won with sub-41% popular vote against a divided opposition.

Perhaps if they do manage to slip through a split vote, their next term in office could be marked by the most squeaky-clean scandal-free well-liked BCNDP government ever. Now that would expand the natural constituency.

Well if we can find people with broad-based appeal like Gregor Robertson but who aren't presently occupied being the mayor of Vancouver, then yes, that's quite acheivable.

Back when it was thought that a provincial election could be imminent, there were murmurs of various Vision folks (Kerry Jang I think, notably?) who would be seeking BCNDP nominations and stepping out of the municipal race.

I think Christy Clark will move out of Point Grey next election. David Eby had a very impressive finish but in a general election I think he'd choose a different riding himself. Without a premier-as-incumbent, VPG has a very good chance of finally going back to the NDP.

We already have a liberal party running in the election. Your prescription IMO will lead to another drop in the popular vote as more and more people look and see no real choice and choose to take a pass on the sham process that never leads to change.

If politics is not an avenue for changing the solid centrist status quo then it seems to me that as an individual the only point in being involved is too better ones business contacts and the NDP is generally a lousy party for that kind of networking.

I am beginning to wonder if Vision Vancouver might be in for a big shock on election nite. Just saw a poll today saying Robertson had less than 50% support.

Actually said that Robertson had an approval rating of 49% - it didn't say what his DISapproval rating was - but given that on these types of questions there is typically at least 10% no opinion so i presume that more people in vancouver approve of Robertson than disapprove of him. In any case you don't need sky high approvals to win an election - ask Dalton McGuinty. From I can tell Robertson's oppopent Susan Anton (wonder woman?) has been a total flop as a candidate.

You seem to have re-read my prescription as something other than it is. I didn't say to run centrists everywhere. I said to run centrists in places only centrists can win. One of the ways in which the right-wing party in BC has consistently outdone the NDP is their capacity to present their party as a coalition, showcasing the ideological diversity of their big tent party. While it has consistently been the right wing of the party that has called the shots, the active showcasing of centrist figures as star candidates has been one of the ways in which they have pulled off squeaker victories in key ridings.

The problem with the NDP is that we function, too often, like a moderate line organization rather than as the unwieldy coalition we actually are. Instead of demonstrating ideological accord, we should be demonstrating ideological diversity.

I strongly oppose any further rightward moves by the party but that's what we keep getting because the feeling seems to be that to move one candidate to the right in a swing riding, we need to move the whole party to the right. This is wrongheaded. Gordon Campbell's victories came consistently from doing a better job than his predecessors and than the NDP at looking like a coalition.

If we want to beat Pat Bell or Shirley Bond, we need to tack left in their districts and run Peter Kormos-style populists. If we want to take Vancouver-False Creek, we need a Vision Vancouver liberal type.

So your clarification is that we need to run STAR right wingers in many if not most ridings but you oppose the party drifting to the right.  I find little logic in that view.  

If the NDP recruit and run star centrist candidates who win close races do you really think those centrists are going to want to be marginalized and sidelined while the progressives set the agenda.  Personally I think they will not and they will be at the cabinet table setting the agenda.  The status quo will prevail and no fundamental change will ever make it to the floor of the legislature.  

I agree your strategy is a good one for electing right wing governments and if used by the BC NDP it will succeed again in that goal.

No that is not my opinion and serendipitously it seems to be made of straw.

Not that this has anything to do with provincial politics but since you raised it - VV and Robertson are leagues above Anton and the NPA and the fact of the matter is that there is no alternative to voting for Robertson and VV if you want to prevent the city being ravished by idiocy. The next municipal contract talks are up and chances are that if Anton and the NPA get in they'll be serious cuts in services, even more anti-working/middle class policies in housing (admittedly not much has been done though) and a likely long and arduous civic strike ala Sam's strike in '08. Not to mention that you can bet another False Creek style housing deal gutting social and mix-market housing will come along within any new developments on an NPA/Anton dominated council. Oh and don't forget the whole cynical ploy that Anton is trying to play with the bike lane issue. It's pathetic seeing as she just cycled around Europe not too long ago, but then again if that's the sort of Mayor (a Mitt Romney-esque pro-corporate twit who will flail in the wind) you want, by all means go ahead and boost her.

The sign war could be misleading. I think the NPA does disproportionately better in homes with lawns, and Vision/COPE prevail in dense apartment buildings that often can't or don't display election signs.

That's what people said in Toronto last year - who cares if Rob Ford is elected mayor - he's just ONE VOTE on council - he won't be able to do ANYTHING. A year later it turns out that we should have cared!

New Angus Reid Strategies poll:

NDP: 40% (-2% from 2009 election)

Lib: 31% (-15%)

Con: 18% (+16%)

Green: 8% (N/C)

Looks like the Cons are bleeding votes from the Libs. But will the Cons actually win 18% on election day or is some vote parking going on here?

The Greens have also polled as high as 18% in BC, but a good chunk of that came back to the NDP. With Lib fear-mongering, a good chunk of the Con vote could also eventually come back to the Libs.

BTW, this is unbelievably the first ARS poll since March and since then Con support has certainly gained traction.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/2011.11.03_Politics...

What I find most interesting about the poll is the flatness of everybody's support across the province. Once you exclude Vancouver Island, the NDP and Liberals are tied in regions throughout the mainland. This is certainly good news for the NDP in the Kootenays, Thompson and North.

I agree with Stockholm on this. The mayor of a city matters - alot. He/She gets to lead and comes with their own agenda, and gets to say that they were elected by all the people rather than representing an area of the community of the large. Do not make the same mistake as Toronto.

Thanks A24. Direction and leadership matters.

It does sound like Robertson has dissapointed some of the people who should be his natural allies.

Perhaps the best thing would be for a Robertson re-election, with none of the 3 parties winning an outright majority. That way, Vision Vancouver (and Robertson in particular) would be forced to choose between voting with COPE or the NPA. Is there any chance that COPE could actually win more seats than Vision?

The "first 10 past the post" system makes it unlikely that anyone non-slate will get a council seat. Except maybe Adriane Carr. Even if the anti-development-left vote is a significant force in the city, it's still probably dwarfed enough by Vision and NPA support that the NSV candidates will be buried far down the list.

Well I meant "non-major-slate".

NSV, to my understanding, is a group of people who would have rather seen COPE put forward a fuller slate of candidates rather than having an agreement with Vision. I think Helten has stated publicly he is still a member of COPE. Ergo they have put some candidates forward and are encouraging people to support their people plus COPE plus Green and skip out on Vision.

I would imagine when the vote totals come in, nobody with NSV will have gotten enough votes, but COPE will probably do well with the support of Vision slate voters, COPE supporters and NSV supporters alike. Although as noted in the Cadman thread, some Vision supporters may be cautious about choosing Tim Louis. I think Vision will still see many of their people elected but this time a few more NPA types (or Carr) may slip through.

The math of the electoral system is such that if voters choose perfect slates always, the most preferred slate will win 100% of the positions. The swing voters in the middle who don't choose perfect slates are the ones who decide how much the total will vary from a full slate. So in the last election, enough people voted for most or all of the Vision-COPE slate that 9 of 10 got in. Suzanne Anton actually had more council votes than Ladner's mayoral votes, which indicated some non-negligible swing vote that selected Anton to balance out the council without actually supporting an NPA mayor.

In 2008, Gregor got 67,598 mayoral votes, and the city council candidate who got almost as many as that was Raymond Louie (66,226). Chow and Deal were pretty close too. In 2011 I think it's reasonable to expect Gregor will get re-elected. What would be really telling would be if any candidate - *especially* a COPE candidate - gets more council votes than any mayoral candidate. That would be a sign of voter sentiment shifting considerably.

Yep, this was covered in the Cadman thread. I would support STV for sure, as it would guarantee that each council seat represents a definitive voting bloc and that a vast majority of voters get represented by at least one seat.

There is a vague mention of electoral reform in the Vision and COPE platforms but it is not elaborated upon. My guess is that it's more about campaign finance reform to put everyone on an even playing field - Vision would be okay with no longer taking donations from developers & unions as long as NPA gets cut off from their respective developers and corporations too.

I don't know that I'd really consider a single member plurality ward system to be much of a democratic improvement for Vancouver. It'd still be distorted but just in a different way. If it's going to get reformed, reform it right.

You're right, we're off track. Let's branch out further talk of muni elections to here:

http://rabble.ca/babble/alberta-and-british-columbia/bc-municipal-elections-2011

308 did a projection based on BC polls:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/11/bc-liberals-fall-as-bc-tories-rise.html

No riding-by-riding breakdown, but the NDP lead in Metro Vancouver is shown as 43% to the Liberals' 31%, Cons 17% and Greens 7%. I am curious which riding is the one that they projected to go to the BCCons.

I think it was a mistake to have chosen Lam as a candidate in the first place, but it was even more of a mistake for the party to fail to stand by him. I doubt he would have won, but since Parente didn't either, it's not like the last-minute substitution helped anyway.

With the poll numbers, it stands to reason that Christy Clark would move to a safer BCL seat, leaving Vancouver-Point Grey with a non-leader BCL candidate for the first time since 1996. Judging by Eby's results in the by-election, I think VPG is an acheivable pickup too.

The only Greater Victoria seats that went BCL last time (Oak Bay-Gordon Head & Sannich North and The Islands) were only won by a few hundred. Those could definitely swing. Perhaps the same with Burnaby North, Burnaby-Lougheed. And after the federal wins in Surrey North and Newton-North Delta, we could certainly see Surrey-Tynehead flipping. 

I don't think it's Delta South.  After all, 308 is also projecting an independent seat, and I don't think that his model would predict Bob Simpson or independent-to-be-named-later winning before Huntington.  I'd say it's probably Boundary--Similkameen.  Yes, the Conservatives only came in third there, but that was with just over 20% of the popular vote in an election where they barely broke 2% province-wide.

Cummins federal riding was actually Delta-Richmond East - he could easily run in the BC Liberal held Richmond East seat if Huntingdon didn't want to make way for him.

I was under the impression that Huntington ran as a sort of "rightwing indepependent" and that she and Cummins would be totally fishing from the same pond.

Huntington is a single-issue centrist who has relied on NDP and Green votes to stay in office; she is cut from the "save the local hospital" independents the Brits keep electing.

Anyway, Cummins has only represented White Richmond and non-White Delta intermittently. His base community is, in all ways, Ladner-Tsawassen.

Delta South is Vicki Huntington's seat a long as she wants it. I'd categorize her as a "green, red-tory" in a small "c" Con seat. BTW, she's a prodigy of her pops, Ron Huntington, former federal Con MP for West Vancouver-Capilano.

Cummins formerly resided in "North" Delta and now resides in his new house, that he has built, in ueber so-con, right-wing Mary Polak's Langley riding.

Crazy. I'd really like to see the poll report itself directly.

Still it also points out that any reunification of Libservative voters could sink the NDP at these support levels. If either Lib or Con bleeds off so much support that it drops down to 9-10%, now we have a party competing with the NDP.

At the same time, I think the whole premise behind an contra-NDP coalition is starting to fall apart after over half a century of dominating BC politics. A lot of people in the centre, if they are not filled with blind anti-NDP sentiment, probably know that the NDP is closer to where they stand than either of the two parties sniping to dominate the right-wing vote. The next Liberal leader after Clark will have to decide whether to continue to chase to the right, leaving the centre stranded, or start a new chapter. Could we be looking at the start of a semi-stable three-party system?

True. And as I cited upthread, I think there is also some potential for Liberal votes to flee to Green if the Libs alienate the centre. Whereas I think left-green voters have less reason to be ticked at the NDP this election compared to last, and they are more likely to fall in line. Especially if the NDP is leading the charge against Northern Gateway.

Regarding right-green vs left green, check this out:

http://canadianveggie.wordpress.com/2012/01/23/vancouver-election-analysis-maps/#more-2622

Notice how the Vision-NPA pattern was largely north versus south, but the Green-COPE pattern was west versus east. 

Thanks for jumping in!

If Northern Gateway (or any other significant environmental matter) becomes an election issue, it'd be interesting to see what happens to that westside NPA-Green contingent's voting patterns. Now that the NDP has given up on "Axe The Tax", they're probably mending fences with the environmental movement.

Clark had better watch her back as Falcon must be chafing at the bit to take over. LOL

Are we about to see the total collapse of the BC Liberals?

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Adrian+pulls+ahead+Christy+Clark+people...

Good point... would the Liberals try and pull another leadership swap? Clark was the least Campbell tainted so if they can't do better with her then this is bad news... 91 SoCred like bad news. They do still have a year to go till they have to call an election?

There is no good news here for the Liberals, they might have been lucky if the BCC vote was heavily regional say all Interior or North, but its pretty consistent in all the regions which means thats enough for NDPers to win in so-called safer BCL seats.

Can't get too confident, we saw the drop for the NDP after the Liberal leadership... so Dix needs to keep it up, and there is room to grow since in Oct10 the NDP was at 49%

... Will that 5-6% then go to the NDP or the Liberals? The liberals could be counting on those votes in places like Vancouver-False Creek and Fariview and on VI to save them... or try at least. Those greeny-fiscal conservative-already wealthy older folk who park with Green but normally would be voting Liberal.

How much of the BCC vote is also parked? this is the what third poll out showing they are consistently around 20% so that must bod well for them

The Labour movement is quite fired up about the 2 upcoming by-elections which we now expect to be in early April. 

The Liberals could not even find a candidate who lives in the Port Moody riding. And Pamela Martin must have chickened out as she has seen the writing on the wall.

CFL