Predictions for BC Election on May 9 '17

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NorthReport
Predictions for BC Election on May 9 '17

With less than one week away, the latest polling is showing a minuscule BC NDP majority government, so what are your predictions?

Before you predict take a look at the Poll Tracker graph which appears to show the NDP gaining support, and the Liberals losing support, in the most recent days of the BC election campaign. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-2017-poll-tracker-1.40...

NorthReport

!!

NorthReport

The Right-Wing media like the Vancouver Sun combined with the Right-Wing BC Liberals to give the Right-Wing BC Greens a much higher profile than what they have in actual support.  Imagine if people voted Green only to discover they contributed to re-electing the BC Liberals. My hunch is that as usual the BC Green vote will substantially drop by E-Day.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

42 seats NDP 42 seats Liberal and 3 seats for the Greens.  The Liberals will then form a minority government with Green support.

Aristotleded24

I predict that the networks are going to talk about seat gains and seat losses. About 45 minutes in, the networks declare who the winner is. The party leaders will then speak, in order from whoever got the least amount of support to those who got the most.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..i predict the pollsters will, once again, have it wrong. there will be an ndp gov.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

I too think the pollsters will have it wrong. Unfortunately, I think the pollsters have a too low number for the BC Liberals. As is a common trend among supporters of right-wing parties, I think some BC Liberal voters are too embarrassed to admit their support for the party.

So Here's the vote share that I think each party will get:

43.5% BC Liberal
41% BC NDP
15% BC Greens
0.5% Other

I hope I'm wrong!!!

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I am glad the polls show the Liberals just slightly ahead. The NDP needs its voters to be motivated enough to get out and vote. Also if that is a provincial poll the NDP might win the most seats given the huge majority's the Liberals pile up in many Interior ridings. Redux 1996.

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I am glad the polls show the Liberals just slightly ahead. The NDP needs its voters to be motivated enough to get out and vote. Also if that is a provincial poll the NDP might win the most seats given the huge majority's the Liberals pile up in many Interior ridings. Redux 1996.

You and I must be looking at different polls. The CBC Poll Trackers has the NDP slightly ahead. I predicted that they are underreporting BC Liberal support, for the reason I gave. The numbers I gave were my prediction of what the vote percentages will br on election day, not an actual poll.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Left Turn wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I am glad the polls show the Liberals just slightly ahead. The NDP needs its voters to be motivated enough to get out and vote. Also if that is a provincial poll the NDP might win the most seats given the huge majority's the Liberals pile up in many Interior ridings. Redux 1996.

You and I must be looking at different polls. The CBC Poll Trackers has the NDP slightly ahead. I predicted that they are underreporting BC Liberal support, for the reason I gave. The numbers I gave were my prediction of what the vote percentages will br on election day, not an actual poll.

The polls are all over the place but none of them should make any NDP supporter complacent.

With the provincial election less than a week away, pollsters examining the British Columbia campaign are offering voters an inconsistent view of where the parties stand, in contrast with 2013 when firms widely – and wrongly – predicted an NDP victory.

This time, the results differ significantly between polling firms, with one saying the BC Liberals have the momentum, another arguing the BC NDP is comfortably ahead, and others striking a more cautious tone.

The NDP was heavily favoured to win the provincial election four years ago, when the party was led by Adrian Dix. Instead, Liberal Leader Christy Clark carried her party to its fourth consecutive majority government.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/polls-give-conflict...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I predict that the voters will elect 86 human beings and one Kermode spirit bear whose nomination papers were accidentally signed by a Liberal candidate.  The bear's presence in the Legislature will be the disturbing cause of several early by-elections. 

nicky

It seems to me from afar that the key to the election is the Green vote.

Polls now give it anywhere from 15% to 24%. This spread alone indicates its lack of loyalty. It is unlikley it can get more than 5 seats, more likely 3 or less, but all of its gains will be by taking NDP seats. In a close election this can be crucial.

I am hopeful that many Green voters will switch to the NDP in the final days. There are a number of reasons why this may be more than a hope:

1. The NDP is far closer to the Greens on the issues, although Weaver and May might prefer the Liberals.

2. the Green vote is the softest among all the parties with close to half of it saying they might switch according to the recent polls.

3. The polls also show that Green voters prefer the NDP over the Liberals by huge margins, 3 or 4 to 1.

4. Green voters also have a very negative view of Clark, much more so than of Horgan.

5. The NDP has the better electoral machine for turning out the votes.

6. The polls show a very tight race with the the Greens out of contention for forming the government.

 

NorthReport

You seriously underestimate the Liberals get out the vote process.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Nicky I think your points have much merit but I must agree with NR that the BC Liberals are very good at GOTV. They have some of  the best organizers from both the federal Liberals and Conservatives. The NDP used to have the best ground game but that was a decade ago now they are better  than the Greens but only equal at best to the Libs.

nicky

The polls seem to be swinging back to the Liberals.

 

I had thought that Clark was running a bad campaign and that she was very unpopular. And that Horgan had been making progress.

 

But my view is from Toronto. Can any of you BCers enlighten me on what is happening and why?

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

You have to keep in mind that the BC Liberals are a combination of Libs and Cons. So federally in 2015 the combination of Cons and Libs was 65% to the NDP's 26%.  If you look at those numbers and the fact that Clark is polling in the low 40's at best it is clear that she does not have the support of all the free enterprisers.  

As for the polls they are all over the place so I don't have a clue which one is close to accurate. I live on Vancouver Island now so this is where the Greens are putting in their best efforts to defeat sitting NDP MLA's.  If they take enough NDP votes away they could win a few seats here or worse yet allow the Liberals to come up the middle in a few seats. Weaver has already said he likes Clark better than Horgan and he would happily accept a cabinet post in a minority government.  

I will bet that when the donors list comes out for the last quarter when the Greens developed a massive war chest that many of the "individuals" who donated also donated to the Liberals.  In BC we have a very corrupt ethos in our business community and many of them have no problem with having their executives donate while reimbursing them in other ways that have no direct connection. 

ghoris

I've recently relocated to Alberta after fifteen years in BC, chased away by the outrageous cost of living and lured to a greener pasture where I can actually purchase a home for my family. As such, I no longer have on the ground knowledge, so take my prediction for what it's worth:

Liberal 44, NDP 41, Green 2

I hope I'm wrong, but that's my best guess right now looking at some of the individual riding battles.

Aristotleded24

ghoris wrote:
I've recently relocated to Alberta after fifteen years in BC, chased away by the outrageous cost of living and lured to a greener pasture where I can actually purchase a home for my family.

You're always welcome back in your home province! ;)

Nice to hear from you ghoris, it's been a while. How have you been? I wondered what your thoughts would have been on the debacle that took place last year.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Is anyone else getting an "Access denied" message when you click on the "Conituned here" link that Meg posted before she closed the main BC Election thread? I sent Meg a PM about it, so hopefully it will get sorted out.

NorthReport

Hi LT

Getting same "Access Denied" message as you got.

Will money and arrogance cost Christy Clark the BC election?

With days left in the campaign, the stench of suspect lobbying and fundraising around her party is as bad as ever. But don’t count out Clark just yet.

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/will-money-and-arrogance-cost-christy-cl...

 

NorthReport
Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Is anyone else getting an "Access denied" message when you click on the "Conituned here" link that Meg posted before she closed the main BC Election thread?

Yes, but I get the same message when I click on "Contact", so I just assumed I'm on the shit-list or something.  I mean, can't even contact anyone?  Ouch!

jerrym

Left Turn wrote:

Is anyone else getting an "Access denied" message when you click on the "Conituned here" link that Meg posted before she closed the main BC Election thread? I sent Meg a PM about it, so hopefully it will get sorted out.

I get the same response, so I sent a message to Meg B who created the "Continued Here"  message but have not heard back. In the meantime, it took me a day to find where Here is since clicking on it led to "Access Denied". The danger of being a techno-peasant. However, it is still frustrating when the thread disappears days before the election. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I am sure it was a technical glitch given she closed and reopened a few of them on the same day. I would guess given the comments above and my similar reaction that her in-box is now full of notes that the link leads to Access Denied. 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Meg's link was probably intended to go to either this thread, or more likely the "Right-Wing BC Liberals and Right-Wing Greens Working in Collusion Against BC NDP" thread, as Meg doesn't appear to have created any "part 2" thread that I can find.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

That's a good point.  The link is actually looking for a thread titled:

bc-election-may-9th-part-2

... or some similar, which doesn't exist.  So for some reason the error message thrown isn't "Page Does Not Exist", but "Access Denied".

jerrym

There has been a huge backlash against the BC Liberal candidate, Lorraine Brett, in New Westminster on Facebook after she claimed that many supporters were afraid to put up BC Liberals signs because of NDP intimidation. 

However, the Green candidate has many more signs than her up even though the previous Green candidate only got 8% in the riding during the last election compared to the BC Liberals 33%. The NDP candidate, Judy Darcy won with 48% and often has multiple signs on the vast majority of blocks in this NDP stronghold that has only voted Liberal once (in 2001 when the NDP got only 2 seats) since 1957.

New Westminster is the only riding in BC that has existed in every election since BC joined Canada in 1871. Here's the riding profile: 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/british-columbia-2017-ele...

I think we might be able to put it safely in the NDP column again.

 

nicky

I see that there are four new riding polls for Vancouver Island seats published yesterday and today in The Victoria Times Colonist.

All have the Greens in third place with the battle between the NDP and the Liberals. The four seats include the two most often mentioned as Green pick-ups - Cowitchen Valley and Saanich North and the Islands. (although the  Greens in this seat are a very close third.)

This seems to indicate the Greens are unlikley to gain even a second seat.

I would be interested in what our BC observers might say about Green voters now realizing that the NDP is the only alternative to Clark (or not).

MegB

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I am sure it was a technical glitch given she closed and reopened a few of them on the same day. I would guess given the comments above and my similar reaction that her in-box is now full of notes that the link leads to Access Denied. 

I opened and closed a few long threads the other day. I've checked the links and they work for me. I'll keep up trying to get to the bottom of this. Thanks for the heads up everyone.

jerrym

nicky wrote:

I see that there are four new riding polls for Vancouver Island seats published yesterday and today in The Victoria Times Colonist.

All have the Greens in third place with the battle between the NDP and the Liberals. The four seats include the two most often mentioned as Green pick-ups - Cowitchen Valley and Saanich North and the Islands. (although the  Greens in this seat are a very close third.)

This seems to indicate the Greens are unlikley to gain even a second seat.

I would be interested in what our BC observers might say about Green voters now realizing that the NDP is the only alternative to Clark (or not).

According to a CHEK News (Vancouver Island TV station) a North Island poll shows the the NDP and Liberals tied at 34% with the Greens at 32% - a three way statistical tie. The BC Liberals are running a First Nations candidate here to try and divert some of the traditional strong First Nation support to them in a riding with a relatively high native population. 

CHEK News also reported a 44% Liberal, 29% NDP, 27% Green support in Courtney-Com0x riding, which the Liberals won in the 2013 election, but with a smaller margin.

It looks like the Greens are affecting the possibility of NDP wins on the island and increasing the possibility of Liberal wins in island ridings. 

I hope that I am wrong. 

josh

“It’s 2013 all over again” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Our final poll finds the NDP and Liberals in a dead heat – but despite the statistical tie in support, we’re expecting a Liberal majority government on Tuesday night. For the NDP to win they would need to be leading by substantially more given the inefficiency of their vote, with a statistical dead heat, we expect Liberal incumbents will be able to pull themselves over the finish line.”

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-set-majority/

 

Aristotleded24

If a Liberal majority is going to come from this, will it be a comfortable majority?

ghoris

Aristotleded24 wrote:

ghoris wrote:
I've recently relocated to Alberta after fifteen years in BC, chased away by the outrageous cost of living and lured to a greener pasture where I can actually purchase a home for my family.

You're always welcome back in your home province! ;)

Nice to hear from you ghoris, it's been a while. How have you been? I wondered what your thoughts would have been on the debacle that took place last year.

I keep telling people I'm gradually moving my way back east to Manitoba!

Not wanting to derail this thread, I'll say this about the Manitoba election - I'm not at all surprised the NDP got its clock cleaned. The last few years of the Selinger government were a complete gong show. If he had graciously stood aside they probably would have saved a bit more of the furniture but they still would have lost after 16 years in power if for no other reason than "time for a change". Things could have been much, much worse if the Liberals had had their act together. The Tories are going to be hard-pressed to hang on to a lot of the seats they won (eg Transcona, Kildonan, Thompson, St. Vital being the most obvious examples).

But getting back to BC, I am now fairly confident of a slender Liberal majority. Looking at some of the riding-by-riding races, I just don't see where the NDP picks up enough seats to get over the magic number of 44. FWIW, Eric Grenier at CBC is predicting a virtual tie in the popular vote, with the Liberals winning 44 seats, the NDP 41 and the Greens 2. Those numbers feel about right to me, although I would not be surprised to see the Liberals win something closer to 45 or 46 seats. I guess we'll know tomorrow night.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..i can't access the new bc election page. in fact i can't even see it. so i'm posting this here. there is so much wrong with weaver in this piece i'm not even going to highlight anything.

The problem with Andrew Weaver

A fellow Green raises concerns about B.C. party’s leadership and direction

NorthReport
no1important

Since WAC took over the Socreds the NDP has only won the popular vote twice. In 96 they 'won' re election but not popular vote.

The NDP can only seem to win when the right is split and even though the Greens are a right wing party the media has brainwashed people into believing they are left...

With no right wing split and  greens going to split the NDP vote, especially on the Island, then throw in so many uninformed uninterested voters, plus cons only running what 5 candidates yet at 7% in polling and that vote in ridings where the cons are not running is not going to go to the NDP , i can safely predict unfortunately another Liberal majority.

With the scandals, corruption, shenanigans etc by the Libs over the last 16 years this should be a shoe in for the NDP yet the NDP has really never risen to the challenge.

It is also disgusting how the media in BC like good little lemmings all seem to back Clark and the libs despite all the crap they have done.

I was and still am a pro rep voting system supporter and want FPTP dumped but the draw back of that in BC is the Weaver Greens holding the balance of power and their cosiness with the  re branded Socreds has given me pause on that.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

BC media has spent 70 years vilifying the NDP. It is non stop and relentless during campaigns but it is also a underlying theme of the MSM embedded in many stories all the time.

The resilience of the BC NDP is actually quite astounding. They always do far better than in Ontario where there are two right wing parties to split the vote. If we had PR I would expect a new leftist emvironmental party to overtake both the tired NDP and the Weaver Greens.  Then we could all vote for the party we actually want to speak for us.

quizzical

kropotkin1951 wrote:
If we had PR I would expect a new leftist emvironmental party to overtake both the tired NDP and the Weaver Greens.  Then we could all vote for the party we actually want to speak for us.

yup!

my millenial daughter is voting NDP  because gma says so but she has no idea who they are. they need to do better.

i'm voting NDP  because i'm sick of the  deregulation of my industry and because i've lived long enough now to experience the truth of corrupt capitalist governments.

 

 

Unionist

Ken Burch wrote:

I predict that the voters will elect 86 human beings and one Kermode spirit bear whose nomination papers were accidentally signed by a Liberal candidate.  The bear's presence in the Legislature will be the disturbing cause of several early by-elections. 

Ditto!

josh
ghoris

Certainly possible, but not that likely. I think the general consensus is that Adam Olsen will win Saanich North and the Islands for the Greens, with Andrew Weaver holding Oak Bay-Gordon Head, but I am having a hard time seeing where the Greens pick up that third seat on these numbers (or the fourth which would give them official party status).

FWIW, the final call on Election Prediction Project is Liberals 50, NDP 35, Greens 2. Overall I think that's at the very high end for the Liberals (and EPP has a history of giving the Liberals the benefit of the doubt in close races). Some of the riding calls are questionable: they have only two net gains for the NDP in the Lower Mainland and a net loss of two seats for the NDP in the North and Interior. The latter could happen but the former is unlikely I think. All in all they are projecting very few seats to change hands.

NorthReport

EPP - Milton Chan who is connected with Liberals at least federally I believe.

ghoris

NorthReport wrote:

EPP - Milton Chan who is connected with Liberals at least federally I believe.

I think that is correct. Like I say, the numbers are not out of the realm of possibility, but that outcome assumes that pretty much every single close race goes the Liberals' way. Possible, but not probable.

NorthReport

ghoris - Welcome back & thanks for your recents participation

Rev Pesky

I'll start by saying I wouldn't want to be called to account for my prediction. After the last election, when polling was so wrong, I'm a bit chary of polls. So this is just a guess, albeit a guess based on watching elections in BC since the late 50's.

I doubt much will change. I don't see any groundswell of support for any party, which leads me to believe that most seats will return members of the party that already holds them. I also predict that the Green vote will come in lower than the polls suggest (in terms of overall percentage).

A pretty dismal prospect, I agree, but there it is. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but I remember when the Dave Barrett NDP unseated the WAC Bennett Socreds. You could tell something was going to happen. I do not get anything like that feeling this time around. Perhaps I'm wrong, and as I said, I hope I am, but...

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I'm not in any position to try to prognosticate this, but if the Greens do even INCREMENTALLY better than the last time then they're probably going to walk around like some 17 year old with a beard of thirty wispy little hairs, pretending he's now some kind of Village Elder.  Not sure why anyone should hope for that.

no1important

Looks like Libs will win again. Even though early but from past elections things do not really change...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

42 seats NDP 42 seats Liberal and 3 seats for the Greens.  The Liberals will then form a minority government with Green support.

At 11:11 I stand by my prediction from a week ago.

josh

Forum came pretty close in its prediction.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The polls were all within the margin of error and its hard to do better than that.

Unfortunately I was too hopeful last night. With absentee ballots and recounts I expect that the Liberals will eke out a majority. Courtenay Comox will likely not hold for the NDP.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

I'm not in any position to try to prognosticate this, but if the Greens do even INCREMENTALLY better than the last time then they're probably going to walk around like some 17 year old with a beard of thirty wispy little hairs, pretending he's now some kind of Village Elder.  Not sure why anyone should hope for that.

Perhaps some people crave whispy-chinned Junior Vikings?  They would be the guys who could tell you where to buy locally-sourced artisanal mead, and who doesn't want some of that?

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