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Premier Christy Clark & the BC Liberals are both toast - so what happens now? (Thread #3)

NorthReport
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NorthReport
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Only 4 days left till the next 2 by-elections, but it does seem inevitable that the BC Liberals will lose another 2 seats in the BC Legislature come Thursday nite. Will the right-wing regroup in time, with just over 1 year to go, with our BC fixed election dates, to stop the NDP? Laughing


NorthReport
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Now that is a scary thought.

 

Blossoming of Wildrose a sign PCs can bloom here   Strategist thinks parallels are 'compelling'


http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Blossoming+Wildrose+sign+bloom+here/6464847/story.html

 


theleftyinvestor
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Umm why is the headline calling Cummins' party the "PCs"? That's not their name.

Anyway... there are Conservatives who will not be convinced to vote Liberal. There are Liberals who will not be convinced to vote Conservative. I have my doubts that any one banner can unite them in time for May 2013.

And I still think there is a deeper question - do any remaining centrists in BC *really* still feel strongly that they have to unite with conservatives to keep the NDP out of power? Especially if they are the same centrists who would be willing to see the federal Liberals and NDP work together to keep Harper out of power?


NorthReport
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Sounds like the BC Liberals are losing it mentally as well as the by-elections this week.

B.C. Liberal MLA Harry Bloy blunders again, accusing NDP leader Adrian Dix of theft, fraud   Liberal MLA’s comments set tense tone in house ahead of byelections
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Bloy+blunders+again+accusing+leader+theft+fraud/6469234/story.html


NorthReport
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B.C. Liberal apologizes following bizarre blast at NDP leader Premier says Harry Bloy's comments were 'totally inappropriate'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/16/bc-harry...

 


West Coast Greeny
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theleftyinvestor wrote:

Umm why is the headline calling Cummins' party the "PCs"? That's not their name.

Anyway... there are Conservatives who will not be convinced to vote Liberal. There are Liberals who will not be convinced to vote Conservative. I have my doubts that any one banner can unite them in time for May 2013.

And I still think there is a deeper question - do any remaining centrists in BC *really* still feel strongly that they have to unite with conservatives to keep the NDP out of power? Especially if they are the same centrists who would be willing to see the federal Liberals and NDP work together to keep Harper out of power?



British Columbians generally, and swing voters overwhelmingly, were horrified by the Clark government of the 90s. That approval rating record low Campbell beat in 2010? It belonged to Glen Clark: 12%. Memories were probably still a little too strong in 2005 for the NDP to actually retake government no matter who was leader, but I'd argue that James was seen as too weak and union-friendly to win moderates back over in 2009. This election, more than ever moderates have one of their own in the premier's seat, but the Conservative base is fleeing the party in droves. 


I think at this point its worth pointing out that while, yes, the NDP vote in BC has historically been large and, yes, the centrist vote in BC swings the close elections, the "free-enterprise coaltion" has always been dominated by right-wing Reform types. 

2012 Federal Election in BC:
CPC - 46%
LIB - 13%
2008:
CPC - 48%
LIB - 19%
2006:
CPC - 37%
LIB - 28%
2004:
CPC - 37%
LIB - 29%
2000:
CA - 49%
LIB - 27%
PC - 7%
1997:
REF - 43%
LIB - 28%
PC - 6%
1993:
REF - 36%
LIB - 28%
PC - 14% 


NorthReport
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Which Team Changes Manager First, Canucks or Libs?

In a rough sport, Christy Clark faces pressure if her party loses both byelections.

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/04/17/BC-By-Elections/


NorthReport
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What if Harry Bloy wasn't acting alone in his verbal mugging of Adrian Dix?

http://www.straight.com/article-662016/vancouver/what-if-harry-bloy-wasn...


Policywonk
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NorthReport wrote:

Which Team Changes Manager First, Canucks or Libs?

In a rough sport, Christy Clark faces pressure if her party loses both byelections.

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/04/17/BC-By-Elections/

It's not just a question of losing, but losing badly.


kropotkin1951
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If the BC NDP comes up the middle in Chilliwack it will make the right even more confused as to which horse to back in a general election.

If the BC Conservatives win I predict that within a month there will be at least two more defections. The magic four seat number for party status is a gem that the Cons need to ensure access to all debates on TV without question.  If they don't win either by-election I doubt if any Liberals will jump given that crass opportunism would be the only reason to switch parties now.


ghoris
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BC Liberal surrogates and spin doctors (eg Geoff Plant) seem to be putting out the message that the government losing the by-election isn't evidence of anything since governments always lose by-elections in BC. Of course, the glaring exception to this was Christy Clark's (admittedly narrow) win in Vancouver-Point Grey. Not to mention that there is a big difference between the government losing a seat it had held going into the by-election and failing to win a seat previously held by the opposition. The vast, vast majority of by-elections in BC in the last 20 years fall into the latter category. The only two instances that spring to mind where the government lost a seat it held prior to the by-election were Vancouver-Burrard 2008 and Surrey-Panorama Ridge 2004. I think there were a rash of by-elections that the Socreds lost to the NDP in the late 80s, but that's reaching back pretty far in time for examples. I don't know how anyone can ignore the optics of the government losing both a fairly safe Liberal seat (Port Moody-Coquitlam) and a very safe Liberal seat (Chilliwack-Hope).

The Liberals seem to have quietly conceded that they will most likely lose Port Moody-Coquitlam and are pinning their hopes on hanging onto Chilliwack-Hope. Gwen O'Mahony managed a respectable 33% of the vote there in the general election (versus 53% for Barry Penner), so it's conceivable that any of the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP could win the seat, depending on how the vote splits shake out.


Policywonk
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ghoris wrote:

The Liberals seem to have quietly conceded that they will most likely lose Port Moody-Coquitlam and are pinning their hopes on hanging onto Chilliwack-Hope. Gwen O'Mahony managed a respectable 33% of the vote there in the general election (versus 53% for Barry Penner), so it's conceivable that any of the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP could win the seat, depending on how the vote splits shake out.

Conceivable but not likely. My expectation is that the Liberals will finish third in Chilliwack-Hope and it's a question of whether we or the Conservatives win.


theleftyinvestor
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According to the 308 "swing model", if broad survey results are applied to both by-elections, both will go to the NDP. Of course projections can be wildly inaccurate but it's interesting to see as a starting point.

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/ndp-holds-wide-lead-over-di...

The odds are that [Dix's] party will also come out on top in tomorrow's two by-elections in Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam. If we apply these two polls to the swing model for these two individual ridings, we get the following results (not a prediction!):

CHILLIWACK-HOPE

New Democrats: 41-43%
Liberals: 32%
Conservatives: 26-27%

PORT MOODY-COQUITLAM

New Democrats: 46%
Liberals: 28-30%
Conservatives: 24-26%

Of course, by-elections can be unpredictable. I will be especially looking to see how the Conservatives do. These ridings are not in the parts of the province where the Conservatives should be expected to do best, but both of these polls show that the party is competitive (at least compared to the Liberals) throughout British Columbia. Will their vote turn out? Are they a real alternative option in the province? We'll find out tomorrow night.


Neither of these seats belong to the New Democrats. It will thus be a coup if they win both, but as they are almost assured of a good result they will have a positive headline whether they win them or not. Expectations for the Liberals are already low, so the damage will be somewhat mitigated if they lose one of them. If she wins both, she may be able to start turning things around for her party. If she loses both, the decline will continue. And for the Conservatives, anything over 20% will show they are the real deal.


But neither Dix nor Cummins have nearly as much riding on these results as the premier. By-elections can be odd little one-off events that have no wider meaning, but the effect the results will have on the political mood in the province could be significant.


NorthReport
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How good this double victory tastes 

Was in both ridings this evening and the sweet smell of NDP success was in the air. Margins of victory were quite impressive for both as well.

NDP takes away two Liberal bastions in B.C. by-elections

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politic...


theleftyinvestor
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308's projections for Chilliwack-Hope were eerily almost dead-on compared to tonight's results.

 

Electoral District Candidate's Ballot Name Affiliation Total Valid Votes % of Popular Vote

Chilliwack-Hope Lewis Clarke Dahlby Libertarian 135 1.01%

  John Martin BC Conservative Party 3,396 25.53%

Gwen O'Mahony BC NDP 5,499 41.34%

Laurie Throness BC Liberal Party 4,273 32.12%

124 of 126 ballot boxes reported 13,303 100%

 

However the projections for Port Moody-Coquitlam were only correct for Liberals, and way off for the Conservatives and NDP. So 308 managed to figure out exactly what fraction of the voters would flee the Liberals, but underestimated the NDP side of it. Surely Trasolini's profile as the ex-mayor played a significant role here in channelling the anti-Liberal vote towards a respected alternative. And perhaps the selection of a Conservative named "Christine Clarke" also made voters wary of ticking that box.

 

 

Electoral District Candidate's Ballot Name Affiliation Total Valid Votes % of Popular Vote

Chilliwack-Hope Lewis Clarke Dahlby Libertarian 135 1.01%

  John Martin BC Conservative Party 3,396 25.53%

Gwen O'Mahony BC NDP 5,499 41.34%

Laurie Throness BC Liberal Party 4,273 32.12%

124 of 126 ballot boxes reported 13,303 100%


Vansterdam Kid
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Das Ende für Christy. Actually no, this was a mildly good result for them. In so far as the Conservatives didn't overtake them. Especially in conservative Chilliwack. It also keeps them in the drivers seat of leading the right-wing. On the other hand it's good for us because those were strong results and Christy will be weakened enough by the results that Liberals will still question her leadership, but won't necessarily flee the party in droves for the Cons either because the Cons still aren't a very credible party. That said, they still took enough of the vote to put themselves on the scene and they'll be doing a lot better than 2% province wide next election.


NorthReport
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Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%


theleftyinvestor
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NorthReport wrote:

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

A very astute answer! And I think it's fair to say that a significant chunk of that 8% Green included alienated voters who might have gone NDP were it not for "Axe The Tax", but some of those Greens would have also gone Liberal in the absence of a Green candidate.


kropotkin1951
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The results are the best the NDP could have hoped for.  Because the Cons came third in BOTH ridings there is no clear alternative for "the Anybody But the NDP" voters in next years general election. The AB-NDP vote has traditionally run between 40% and 55% and likely it will be no different next election. The NDP both provincially and federally need three way races to win and there is nothing better than three way races where it is impossible to tell which right wing party is the strongest. 

This time the AB-NDP vote will be as low as it has been in a decade and the right is split. Victory in 2013 is assured unless the BC NDP falls on its sword.  The MSM will be looking for any implement for the party to impale itself on so I hope everyone in caucus are being good boys and girls.


bekayne
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NorthReport wrote:

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

The Greens didn't run in the byelections, it should be noted


NorthReport
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The results of the next BC election in May, 2013, will be as follows:

1st - NDP with a majority government

2nd - Libs

3rd - Cons


Vansterdam Kid
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bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

The Greens didn't run in the byelections, it should be noted

That doesn't bode well for their (the Greens) general election results.


quizzical
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Vansterdam Kid wrote:
bekayne wrote:
The Greens didn't run in the byelections, it should be noted

That doesn't bode well for their (the Greens) general election results.

aren't the Greens just an extension of the BC Libs? i remember hearing 'bout that  last election down on the Island.


Vansterdam Kid
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Not really. On the one hand I'm sure there are plenty of centre right Greens and they have an incoherent mismash of policies, some left, surprisingly large number of them are right-wing though. But if the Greens (or a replacement) weren't on the ballot their votes might go something like, 30% sitting the election out, 50% NDP, 10% Liberal, 5% Conservative, 5% others.


quizzical
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'kay take your word for it now but am going to find out why i think that they are 'cause it was a pretty hard vocalization when i was scrutineering


NorthReport
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Today is the day after a big, big, let's face it, a huge nite, for the Adrian-led NDP, in BC. 

You know us on the Left, we don't get a lot of chance to celebrate politically, particularly since that right-wing fundamentalist nutbar Reagan took power some 40 years ago, so it sure is sweet!

Enjoy it while it lasts folks!  Laughing 

 

Crispy Crunch can hang on all she wants, but savvy BC political observers know she is going, going, gonzo!!!

This looks good on Hockstein too as he he needs to be wearing this right-winger loss, front and centre as well. Wasting his member's money on his BS.

Shame on Phil!

 


NorthReport
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The only thing Chrispy Crunch is going to be leading in, is joining in the continued destruction of the Liberal Party both provincially and federally.

 

And fuck the CBC News Dept.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/20/bc-byele...

 


NorthReport
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'Major breakthrough' for NDP in byelections  

http://www.canada.com/Major+breakthrough+byelections/6496779/story.html


NorthReport
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So the Premier's solution to the BC Liberals dismal showing on Thursday is to change the party name. Laughing

 

Shakeup urged for ‘lost cause’ B.C. Liberals

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politic...


theleftyinvestor
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Consider how in the Vancouver municipal elections, the Vision-NPA split was more north-south, but the Adriane Carr (Green) - Ellen Woodsworth (COPE) split was more west-east. The Green vote is on a whole different axis. They got a lot of votes in 2001 when disaffected NDP voters needed somewhere to park other than Gordon Campbell. But they could just as easily be a place for disaffected centrist Liberals to park other than Adrian or the two clowns fighting for the right.

Both the NDP and Libs are being very cautious about what they say environment wise. But I think when it comes down to it, the NDP will look better on the environment in May 2013, which means left Greens will want to beat the Liberals and right Greens will be the ones to park their vote.


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