Premier Christy Clark & the BC Liberals are both toast - so what happens now? (Thread #3)

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NorthReport
Premier Christy Clark & the BC Liberals are both toast - so what happens now? (Thread #3)

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NorthReport

Only 4 days left till the next 2 by-elections, but it does seem inevitable that the BC Liberals will lose another 2 seats in the BC Legislature come Thursday nite. Will the right-wing regroup in time, with just over 1 year to go, with our BC fixed election dates, to stop the NDP? Laughing

NorthReport

Now that is a scary thought.

 

Blossoming of Wildrose a sign PCs can bloom here

 

Strategist thinks parallels are 'compelling'

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Blossoming+Wildrose+sign+bloom+here/646...

 

theleftyinvestor

Umm why is the headline calling Cummins' party the "PCs"? That's not their name.

Anyway... there are Conservatives who will not be convinced to vote Liberal. There are Liberals who will not be convinced to vote Conservative. I have my doubts that any one banner can unite them in time for May 2013.

And I still think there is a deeper question - do any remaining centrists in BC *really* still feel strongly that they have to unite with conservatives to keep the NDP out of power? Especially if they are the same centrists who would be willing to see the federal Liberals and NDP work together to keep Harper out of power?

NorthReport

Sounds like the BC Liberals are losing it mentally as well as the by-elections this week.

B.C. Liberal MLA Harry Bloy blunders again, accusing NDP leader Adrian Dix of theft, fraud

 

Liberal MLA’s comments set tense tone in house ahead of byelections

http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Bloy+blunders+again+accusing+lead...

NorthReport

B.C. Liberal apologizes following bizarre blast at NDP leader

Premier says Harry Bloy's comments were 'totally inappropriate'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/16/bc-harry...

 

West Coast Greeny

theleftyinvestor wrote:

Umm why is the headline calling Cummins' party the "PCs"? That's not their name.

Anyway... there are Conservatives who will not be convinced to vote Liberal. There are Liberals who will not be convinced to vote Conservative. I have my doubts that any one banner can unite them in time for May 2013.

And I still think there is a deeper question - do any remaining centrists in BC *really* still feel strongly that they have to unite with conservatives to keep the NDP out of power? Especially if they are the same centrists who would be willing to see the federal Liberals and NDP work together to keep Harper out of power?

British Columbians generally, and swing voters overwhelmingly, were horrified by the Clark government of the 90s. That approval rating record low Campbell beat in 2010? It belonged to Glen Clark: 12%. Memories were probably still a little too strong in 2005 for the NDP to actually retake government no matter who was leader, but I'd argue that James was seen as too weak and union-friendly to win moderates back over in 2009. This election, more than ever moderates have one of their own in the premier's seat, but the Conservative base is fleeing the party in droves. 

I think at this point its worth pointing out that while, yes, the NDP vote in BC has historically been large and, yes, the centrist vote in BC swings the close elections, the "free-enterprise coaltion" has always been dominated by right-wing Reform types. 

2012 Federal Election in BC:
CPC - 46%
LIB - 13%
2008:
CPC - 48%
LIB - 19%
2006:
CPC - 37%
LIB - 28%
2004:
CPC - 37%
LIB - 29%
2000:
CA - 49%
LIB - 27%
PC - 7%
1997:
REF - 43%
LIB - 28%
PC - 6%
1993:
REF - 36%
LIB - 28%
PC - 14% 

NorthReport

Which Team Changes Manager First, Canucks or Libs?

In a rough sport, Christy Clark faces pressure if her party loses both byelections.

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/04/17/BC-By-Elections/

NorthReport

What if Harry Bloy wasn't acting alone in his verbal mugging of Adrian Dix?

http://www.straight.com/article-662016/vancouver/what-if-harry-bloy-wasn...

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

Which Team Changes Manager First, Canucks or Libs?

In a rough sport, Christy Clark faces pressure if her party loses both byelections.

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/04/17/BC-By-Elections/

It's not just a question of losing, but losing badly.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

If the BC NDP comes up the middle in Chilliwack it will make the right even more confused as to which horse to back in a general election.

If the BC Conservatives win I predict that within a month there will be at least two more defections. The magic four seat number for party status is a gem that the Cons need to ensure access to all debates on TV without question.  If they don't win either by-election I doubt if any Liberals will jump given that crass opportunism would be the only reason to switch parties now.

ghoris

BC Liberal surrogates and spin doctors (eg Geoff Plant) seem to be putting out the message that the government losing the by-election isn't evidence of anything since governments always lose by-elections in BC. Of course, the glaring exception to this was Christy Clark's (admittedly narrow) win in Vancouver-Point Grey. Not to mention that there is a big difference between the government losing a seat it had held going into the by-election and failing to win a seat previously held by the opposition. The vast, vast majority of by-elections in BC in the last 20 years fall into the latter category. The only two instances that spring to mind where the government lost a seat it held prior to the by-election were Vancouver-Burrard 2008 and Surrey-Panorama Ridge 2004. I think there were a rash of by-elections that the Socreds lost to the NDP in the late 80s, but that's reaching back pretty far in time for examples. I don't know how anyone can ignore the optics of the government losing both a fairly safe Liberal seat (Port Moody-Coquitlam) and a very safe Liberal seat (Chilliwack-Hope).

The Liberals seem to have quietly conceded that they will most likely lose Port Moody-Coquitlam and are pinning their hopes on hanging onto Chilliwack-Hope. Gwen O'Mahony managed a respectable 33% of the vote there in the general election (versus 53% for Barry Penner), so it's conceivable that any of the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP could win the seat, depending on how the vote splits shake out.

Policywonk

ghoris wrote:

The Liberals seem to have quietly conceded that they will most likely lose Port Moody-Coquitlam and are pinning their hopes on hanging onto Chilliwack-Hope. Gwen O'Mahony managed a respectable 33% of the vote there in the general election (versus 53% for Barry Penner), so it's conceivable that any of the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP could win the seat, depending on how the vote splits shake out.

Conceivable but not likely. My expectation is that the Liberals will finish third in Chilliwack-Hope and it's a question of whether we or the Conservatives win.

theleftyinvestor

According to the 308 "swing model", if broad survey results are applied to both by-elections, both will go to the NDP. Of course projections can be wildly inaccurate but it's interesting to see as a starting point.

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/ndp-holds-wide-lead-over-di...

The odds are that [Dix's] party will also come out on top in tomorrow's two by-elections in Chilliwack-Hope and Port Moody-Coquitlam. If we apply these two polls to the swing model for these two individual ridings, we get the following results (not a prediction!):

CHILLIWACK-HOPE
New Democrats: 41-43%
Liberals: 32%
Conservatives: 26-27%

PORT MOODY-COQUITLAM
New Democrats: 46%
Liberals: 28-30%
Conservatives: 24-26%

Of course, by-elections can be unpredictable. I will be especially looking to see how the Conservatives do. These ridings are not in the parts of the province where the Conservatives should be expected to do best, but both of these polls show that the party is competitive (at least compared to the Liberals) throughout British Columbia. Will their vote turn out? Are they a real alternative option in the province? We'll find out tomorrow night.

Neither of these seats belong to the New Democrats. It will thus be a coup if they win both, but as they are almost assured of a good result they will have a positive headline whether they win them or not. Expectations for the Liberals are already low, so the damage will be somewhat mitigated if they lose one of them. If she wins both, she may be able to start turning things around for her party. If she loses both, the decline will continue. And for the Conservatives, anything over 20% will show they are the real deal.

But neither Dix nor Cummins have nearly as much riding on these results as the premier. By-elections can be odd little one-off events that have no wider meaning, but the effect the results will have on the political mood in the province could be significant.

NorthReport

How good this double victory tastes 

Was in both ridings this evening and the sweet smell of NDP success was in the air. Margins of victory were quite impressive for both as well.

NDP takes away two Liberal bastions in B.C. by-elections

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politic...

theleftyinvestor

308's projections for Chilliwack-Hope were eerily almost dead-on compared to tonight's results.

 

Electoral District Candidate's Ballot Name Affiliation Total Valid Votes % of Popular Vote

Chilliwack-Hope Lewis Clarke Dahlby Libertarian 135 1.01%

  John Martin BC Conservative Party 3,396 25.53%

Gwen O'Mahony BC NDP 5,499 41.34%

Laurie Throness BC Liberal Party 4,273 32.12%

124 of 126 ballot boxes reported 13,303 100%

 

However the projections for Port Moody-Coquitlam were only correct for Liberals, and way off for the Conservatives and NDP. So 308 managed to figure out exactly what fraction of the voters would flee the Liberals, but underestimated the NDP side of it. Surely Trasolini's profile as the ex-mayor played a significant role here in channelling the anti-Liberal vote towards a respected alternative. And perhaps the selection of a Conservative named "Christine Clarke" also made voters wary of ticking that box.

 

 

Electoral District Candidate's Ballot Name Affiliation Total Valid Votes % of Popular Vote

Chilliwack-Hope Lewis Clarke Dahlby Libertarian 135 1.01%

  John Martin BC Conservative Party 3,396 25.53%

Gwen O'Mahony BC NDP 5,499 41.34%

Laurie Throness BC Liberal Party 4,273 32.12%

124 of 126 ballot boxes reported 13,303 100%

Vansterdam Kid

Das Ende für Christy. Actually no, this was a mildly good result for them. In so far as the Conservatives didn't overtake them. Especially in conservative Chilliwack. It also keeps them in the drivers seat of leading the right-wing. On the other hand it's good for us because those were strong results and Christy will be weakened enough by the results that Liberals will still question her leadership, but won't necessarily flee the party in droves for the Cons either because the Cons still aren't a very credible party. That said, they still took enough of the vote to put themselves on the scene and they'll be doing a lot better than 2% province wide next election.

NorthReport

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

theleftyinvestor

NorthReport wrote:

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

A very astute answer! And I think it's fair to say that a significant chunk of that 8% Green included alienated voters who might have gone NDP were it not for "Axe The Tax", but some of those Greens would have also gone Liberal in the absence of a Green candidate.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The results are the best the NDP could have hoped for.  Because the Cons came third in BOTH ridings there is no clear alternative for "the Anybody But the NDP" voters in next years general election. The AB-NDP vote has traditionally run between 40% and 55% and likely it will be no different next election. The NDP both provincially and federally need three way races to win and there is nothing better than three way races where it is impossible to tell which right wing party is the strongest. 

This time the AB-NDP vote will be as low as it has been in a decade and the right is split. Victory in 2013 is assured unless the BC NDP falls on its sword.  The MSM will be looking for any implement for the party to impale itself on so I hope everyone in caucus are being good boys and girls.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

The Greens didn't run in the byelections, it should be noted

Vansterdam Kid

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Adrian had the best response last evening to the CBC reporter's questiion 'bout splitting the vote saying "the combined NDP-Green vote in the last BC election was 51%

The Greens didn't run in the byelections, it should be noted

That doesn't bode well for their (the Greens) general election results.

quizzical

Vansterdam Kid wrote:
bekayne wrote:
The Greens didn't run in the byelections, it should be noted

That doesn't bode well for their (the Greens) general election results.

aren't the Greens just an extension of the BC Libs? i remember hearing 'bout that  last election down on the Island.

NorthReport

The results of the next BC election in May, 2013, will be as follows:

1st - NDP with a majority government

2nd - Libs

3rd - Cons

Vansterdam Kid

Not really. On the one hand I'm sure there are plenty of centre right Greens and they have an incoherent mismash of policies, some left, surprisingly large number of them are right-wing though. But if the Greens (or a replacement) weren't on the ballot their votes might go something like, 30% sitting the election out, 50% NDP, 10% Liberal, 5% Conservative, 5% others.

quizzical

'kay take your word for it now but am going to find out why i think that they are 'cause it was a pretty hard vocalization when i was scrutineering

NorthReport

Today is the day after a big, big, let's face it, a huge nite, for the Adrian-led NDP, in BC. 

You know us on the Left, we don't get a lot of chance to celebrate politically, particularly since that right-wing fundamentalist nutbar Reagan took power some 40 years ago, so it sure is sweet!

Enjoy it while it lasts folks!  Laughing 

 

Crispy Crunch can hang on all she wants, but savvy BC political observers know she is going, going, gonzo!!!

This looks good on Hockstein too as he he needs to be wearing this right-winger loss, front and centre as well. Wasting his member's money on his BS.

Shame on Phil!

 

NorthReport

The only thing Chrispy Crunch is going to be leading in, is joining in the continued destruction of the Liberal Party both provincially and federally.

 

And fuck the CBC News Dept.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/04/20/bc-byele...

 

NorthReport

'Major breakthrough' for NDP in byelections

 

http://www.canada.com/Major+breakthrough+byelections/6496779/story.html

NorthReport

So the Premier's solution to the BC Liberals dismal showing on Thursday is to change the party name. Laughing

 

Shakeup urged for ‘lost cause’ B.C. Liberals

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-politic...

theleftyinvestor

Consider how in the Vancouver municipal elections, the Vision-NPA split was more north-south, but the Adriane Carr (Green) - Ellen Woodsworth (COPE) split was more west-east. The Green vote is on a whole different axis. They got a lot of votes in 2001 when disaffected NDP voters needed somewhere to park other than Gordon Campbell. But they could just as easily be a place for disaffected centrist Liberals to park other than Adrian or the two clowns fighting for the right.

Both the NDP and Libs are being very cautious about what they say environment wise. But I think when it comes down to it, the NDP will look better on the environment in May 2013, which means left Greens will want to beat the Liberals and right Greens will be the ones to park their vote.

quizzical

NorthReport wrote:
And fuck the CBC News Dept.

I say "and fuck Christy Clark' as she is so outta touch with BC reality as not to be in it at all.

does she really think levelling the threat that BCers will have to leave the province if the NDP get in mean sfa to BC voters?

BCers have had to leave the province in droves to find work under the BC Libs. I would bet more than any other time. I hope the BCNDP researchers get the stats on this and start pushing the reality that more BCers work out of the province than ever before. over 500 hundred peeps from this town alone work or moved to find work in AB

she shot herself in the foot with that comment her out touchness has to be shown for what it is and it will be no better under any "free enterprise" party and we BCers have seen what they have done to our lives.

Aristotleded24

quizzical wrote:
NorthReport wrote:
And fuck the CBC News Dept.

I say "and fuck Christy Clark' as she is so outta touch with BC reality as not to be in it at all.

does she really think levelling the threat that BCers will have to leave the province if the NDP get in mean sfa to BC voters?

BCers have had to leave the province in droves to find work under the BC Libs. I would bet more than any other time. I hope the BCNDP researchers get the stats on this and start pushing the reality that more BCers work out of the province than ever before. over 500 hundred peeps from this town alone work or moved to find work in AB

she shot herself in the foot with that comment her out touchness has to be shown for what it is and it will be no better under any "free enterprise" party and we BCers have seen what they have done to our lives.

What about former Conservative MP John Reynolds saying it's important to unite under the BC Liberals to prevent a socialist government from being elected?

quizzical

Aristotleded24 wrote:
What about former Conservative MP John Reynolds saying it's important to unite under the BC Liberals to prevent a socialist government from being elected?

i read this yesterday afternoon and did not know who John Reynolds was in the whole matter never heard of him before.

family dinner last night filled me in and I guess the operative word is 'John" as mom went on a rant about him and what mom calls his 'corrupt actions' and the VSE.

think that my generation like me knows sfa about him and could care less what he says.

jerrym

While I think the NDP has an excellent chance of winning the next election, the results of the Alberta election where a sudden change in momentum in the last week surprised everyone on how sweeping a change (namely a status quo government) can occur within such a short period of time, let alone a year. I remember the 1983 provincial election in BC where the NDP led until Barrett made a single foolish statement in the last week and the election was lost. We cannot afford to take anything for granted.

theleftyinvestor

Nonetheless, the Wildrose situation is more akin to our Conservatives (new, untested candidates) than the NDP. We already saw in the by-elections that voters were more reluctant to vote BCCon than expected. The difference is Alberta didn't have any other long-time party with a large natural voting constituency that could benefit from small swings in votes.

Howard

theleftyinvestor wrote:

Nonetheless, the Wildrose situation is more akin to our Conservatives (new, untested candidates) than the NDP. We already saw in the by-elections that voters were more reluctant to vote BCCon than expected. The difference is Alberta didn't have any other long-time party with a large natural voting constituency that could benefit from small swings in votes.

aaaaand, if the polling is to be believed anymore, the PCs are closer to the Alberta mainstream views on most political issues AND play a bigger role in shaping (and reflecting) these views.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

jerrym wrote:

I remember the 1983 provincial election in BC where the NDP led until Barrett made a single foolish statement in the last week and the election was lost. We cannot afford to take anything for granted.

As a Carpenter's Union activist I fought hard in that election and was gobsmacked at the stupidity of the Building Trades [my union included] and the NDP when they held a press conference to show the construction unions handing an over sized cheque to the party for hundreds of thousands of dollars.  Is that the one you mean?

jerrym

Yep. Barrett said he would get rid of the 5-6% wage caps for civil servants.

jerrym

Having seen how Redford won in Alberta, in addition to incumbent victories by Liberals in Ontario, NDPers in Manitoba, Conservatives in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan Party, as well as the federal Conservatives, you can bet she will pick up the common theme of the opposition is too risky to vote for. The BC NDP needs to be prepared for the resulting attacks ads with an effective counter-attack because voters are returning incumbents in a time of worldwide financial crisis if they feel rightly or wrongly a new government presents any risk.

Vansterdam Kid

I think that's a more effective wedge against the Conservatives than it is the NDP. They will need to wittle the Conservatives down to about 10% of the vote and make sure the NDP is no higher than 40% to have a chance to win. It isn't impossible, but I'd bet against it at this point. Then again, you're right and anything can happen.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

jerrym wrote:

Having seen how Redford won in Alberta, in addition to incumbent victories by Liberals in Ontario, NDPers in Manitoba, Conservatives in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan Party, as well as the federal Conservatives, you can bet she will pick up the common theme of the opposition is too risky to vote for. The BC NDP needs to be prepared for the resulting attacks ads with an effective counter-attack because voters are returning incumbents in a time of worldwide financial crisis if they feel rightly or wrongly a new government presents any risk.

The ace in the BC NDP hand this time is Cristy Clark.  She is incompetent and it shows. Arrogant governments fall.

NorthReport

She is not that incompetent but Christy took over a nitemare left by Gordo, and this has shades of the Brian Mulroney / Kim Campbell syndrome written all over this. Too bad for her - maybe she can get the sympathy vote!  Laughing

 

Anyhoo her CKNW job is awaiting her return next year. Tongue out

 

Vansterdam Kid

We shouldn't under estimate her, or the right though, even if they're on their way to a well deserved ass kicking. The two things that could realistically throw a wrench into the good guys winning a deserved landslide are a) Clark leaving "for the good of free enterprise" (bonus points if she, an ally such as that loathsome twit Hochstein or another one of those smarmy types say that it's for "the good of BC") leading to a quick re-absorption of the Cons, or b) she calls a surprise election ASAP. About the only thing Clark is decent at is campaigning, she's more incompetent when it comes to governing. The only election she lost was the NPA nomination contest.

NorthReport

That's correct union-loathing folks at one time were very supportive of  our so-called families-first premier

Clark's Slippery Footing

BC Lib powerbrokers appear to be plotting against her after byelection losses.

 

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2012/04/24/Clark-Slippery-Footing/

Overall, about 70 per cent of voters rejected Clark's government in the two ridings.

Fundrazors

That's what has both Reynolds and Philip Hochstein, head of the union-loathing Independent Contractors and Businesses Association -- and a huge BC Liberal donor that also sponsored tough anti-NDP ads -- very worried.

And while Reynolds is publicly backing Clark's leadership so far -- "you've got a good leader -- we don't need to fight over that issue," he told CKNW's Bill Good on Friday -- Hochstein doesn’t sound very sure.

"If there is no way to have unanimity, then we lose the election. How that comes about and who brings that together, I'm not sure who that is," Hochstein told The Globe and Mail's Justine Hunter after the double loss.

In an opinion piece in The Province newspaper, Hochstein exhorts British Columbians to support the "free enterprise" coalition without once mentioning Clark.

But he does say: "If it's about a name or label, then change it." Could the name to change be Clark's?

 

NorthReport

NDP wins, BCCP edges in

 

In third spot, but numbers are up, says Cummins

http://www.abbotsfordtimes.com/news/wins+BCCP+edges/6515760/story.html

NorthReport

I respect the right for their take-no-prisoner approach to politics

Better than us NDPers who dithered over Carole James' leadership for some time before she was cut loose way past her best before date as leader

The stakes are so high so the reality is politics is hardball and the sooner people realize it the better

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The difference between the right and left in Canada is the right reinvents itself when its best before date expires.  The left has been driving the same vehicle since 1961.

The reason they can change is all about the money.  The Howe Street crowd in BC have no problem acting in concert to ensure they continue to control the government. The Clark victory surprised them and produced the worst case scenario for the 1%.  For a minute in politics in BC we had a left leaning NDP government with a center left opposition.  That immediately lead to a WELL FUNDED  campaign to replace one Gord for another.  That also included a WELL FUNDED media campaign spearheaded by Falcon and other shills for the 1%. 

The NDP when out of power has no moneyed backers who are willing to spend the money to reinvent the left.  The BC Fed will never take on that roll and they are one of the few organizations with any fiscal muscle. The BC CP is the vehicle the real powers in this province are test driving as a replacement car.  They are not yet sold on its merits since it came third in the first heats but their current vehicle didn't do much better.  So I expect that because they are still in doubt they will fund both parties and increase their third party attacks against the NDP.

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
Having seen how Redford won in Alberta, in addition to incumbent victories by Liberals in Ontario, NDPers in Manitoba, Conservatives in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan Party, as well as the federal Conservatives, you can bet she will pick up the common theme of the opposition is too risky to vote for. The BC NDP needs to be prepared for the resulting attacks ads with an effective counter-attack because voters are returning incumbents in a time of worldwide financial crisis if they feel rightly or wrongly a new government presents any risk.

I agree that nothing should be taken for granted, but your example of incumbent governments winning is not that simple. Governmening parties in Alberta, Newfoundland, and Ontario actually lost seats in their elections, and the governing party in New Brunswick was thrown from office in 2010. True, the federal Conservatives, Saskatchewan Party, and the NDP in Manitoba held on and increased their seat counts (in Manitoba's case, the governing party has actually polled behind the opposition for most of the last year, believe it or not), but in each case it had more to do with the incompetence of the opposition parties than of any great love for the current government. People are nervous, they don't like what they're seeing or what's happening to them, and they are ready for change.

flight from kamakura

jerrym wrote:

Having seen how Redford won in Alberta, in addition to incumbent victories by Liberals in Ontario, NDPers in Manitoba, Conservatives in Newfoundland and Saskatchewan Party, as well as the federal Conservatives, you can bet she will pick up the common theme of the opposition is too risky to vote for. The BC NDP needs to be prepared for the resulting attacks ads with an effective counter-attack because voters are returning incumbents in a time of worldwide financial crisis if they feel rightly or wrongly a new government presents any risk.

this is a really good point.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP has been running against that financial bogeyman for 60 years. The BC Liberals are getting the door because they are openly corrupt and they pissed on all the taxpayers with their cynical HST ploy.  Nothing is going to make all those right wingers who worked endlessly on the HST recall campaign to go to the polls and vote for Cristy the Clown.  The NDP will win every time if the right wingers get less than 45% of the vote concentrated in one party.

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