Premier Christy Clark & the BC Liberals are both toast - so what happens now? (Thread #3)

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kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

NorthReport wrote:

I don't see why not as I would expect Mulcair to be in BC before May 14th. Unless of course Trudeau doesn't have the coattails here in BC that Liberals seem to suggest he has.

Stockholm wrote:

I wonder if Justin Trudeasu will do a campaign swing through BC to try to bolster his close ally Christy Clark?

Weird out of context post.

theleftyinvestor

Prominent Federal Liberals know that if they know what's good for them, they will not be seen fraternizing with the scorned step-child of their family.

Heck, remember when McGuinty was really unpopular in his first term and Paul Martin had a 2004 election? Even with the OLP having strong ties to the LPC, federal Liberals made sure to keep their distance from McGuinty so as not to worsen their lot.

jerrym

jerrym wrote:

A NDP government needs to deal with a host of issues that are coming to the fore as global warming continues to change our climate, environment and economy, including:

(1) flooding due to sea level rise (for example, estimated cost of $9.5 billion for flood protection by 2100 for Metro Vancouver alone - (http://www.canada.com/news/Rising+waters+could+cost+Metro+Vancouver+bill...);

(2) destruction of forests by pine beetle infestation as beetles now survive warmer winters costing more than $5 billion in last five years (http://www.learnforestry.com/lessons/grade5/student/pests/top10.shtml);

(3) drought in some regions of province as climate changes and the resulting water shortages limiting farming, industry and lifestyle;

(4) more forest fires and more intense forest fires endangering lives and property also due to warmer, longer forest fire season;

(5) invasive species, who have few or no predators in the province to control their populations, migrating to BC as climate changes;

(6) possibility of disappearance of salmon, province's largest commercial fishery, as temperature rises since they can only survive in a narrow range of cool freshwater temperatures;

(7) appearance of diseases typical of warmer climates here as climate warms.

The traditional argument against dealing with climate change has been the economic costs. The real question when it comes to the economics of climate change is how can we afford to continue the current policies (including pipelines) that are contributing to climate change. The party has to move beyond a carbon pricing or carbon trading system to an active promotion of green energy.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2006/08/31/Solutions/

 

Forgive me for double posting this (also on Northern Gateway) but because the BC NDP is now suggesting that it is in favour of exploring more LNG projects after the BC Liberals announced four new ones, I feel the party needs to take a strong look at where it is heading in view of the irreversible damage fossil fuels are doing to the world and our lives and the damage to the BC economy and environment outlined in my previous post. 

The BC Liberal Energy Minister, Rich Coleman, annnouced yesterday that four more proposed international LNG projects have been received by the provincial government for the Prince Rupert area. This is in addition to the six that have already been proposed for the Prince Rupert and Kitimat region, with two more being considered. Coleman called it a "generational opportunity"

NDP energy critic John Horgan "accused the government of misleading the public with its announcement so close to next month’s election.

“The disservice this does to the public is that it gives the impression that there is a mad gold rush to develop liquefied natural gas in British Columbia,” he said.

“There are a number of companies that are exploring the possibilities ... but I’ve been speaking with all of the proponents, particularly those that have been looking at the Grassy Point facility, and they’re doing their due diligence. The market will determine how many, if any, of these projects proceed.”

Horgan said he is in favour of exploring ways B.C. can gain a foothold in the Asian energy market, but the province should be careful not to present proposals as if they are finalized projects that will play major role in B.C.’s future economy.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Four+more+export+projects+proposed/...

The NDP needs to move away from our fossil fuel addiction that is well down the road to wrecking people's lives and the environment and start introducing a real green energy policy. 

 

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

jerrym wrote:

The NDP needs to move away from our fossil fuel addiction that is well down the road to wrecking people's lives and the environment and start introducing a real green energy policy. 

They need to present a vision of the economy that is not primarily selling carbon on the world market. There is one LNG plant scheduled to be built in BC and you would think that everyone would be looking at the Tumbler Ridge fiasco from the Mini Wac years before any further plants would even be considered.  Japan got various countries to build coal infrastructure including BC.  The taxpayers invested heavily in the infrastructure the industry needed because it would assure prosperity for decades. We were told don't worry there are long term contracts in place. Well the Japanese economy took a downturn and there was a flood of coal on the market as all the projects came on line and the price nose dived. The companies that signed those deals disappeared off the face of the planet and we were stuck holding the bag. Tumbler Ridge had a short boom followed by a very long bust.  The Chinese are  counting on a replay of that scenario as numerous countries rush to build LNG plants. The price of natural gas has already tanked in North America because of the glut produced by fracking most of the continent and the same thing will happen to the price of LNG.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture
kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

There is no doubt that the BC Liberals need booting out but then that was the case four years ago as well.

David Young

If Justin (It For Me) Trudeau does bother to show up in B.C., watch for him going to one of the safest Liberal seats (Vancouver-Langara or perhaps Vancouver-Quilchena) to campaign, so he can boast about helping to re-elect at least one provincial Liberal.

 

NorthReport

I know it is hard to believe but last I heard Langara has a decent chance of going NDP.

theleftyinvestor

David Young wrote:

If Justin (It For Me) Trudeau does bother to show up in B.C., watch for him going to one of the safest Liberal seats (Vancouver-Langara or perhaps Vancouver-Quilchena) to campaign, so he can boast about helping to re-elect at least one provincial Liberal.

A lot of federal Liberal loyalists are on the NDP side this election (and some were last election too). They would prefer to keep their Liberal parties separate.

One must wonder who Joyce Murray or Hedy Fry will quietly vote for in the BC election. 

janfromthebruce

theleftyinvestor wrote:

David Young wrote:

If Justin (It For Me) Trudeau does bother to show up in B.C., watch for him going to one of the safest Liberal seats (Vancouver-Langara or perhaps Vancouver-Quilchena) to campaign, so he can boast about helping to re-elect at least one provincial Liberal.

A lot of federal Liberal loyalists are on the NDP side this election (and some were last election too). They would prefer to keep their Liberal parties separate.

One must wonder who Joyce Murray or Hedy Fry will quietly vote for in the BC election. 

The Green candidates perhaps?

jerrym

The following Victoria Times Colonist article discusses the polar opposite strategies of the BC Liberals and NDP.

"Dix will protect his perceived lead and engage directly with Clark only when he has to (he refused a one-on-one debate this week, insisting all four parties be invited). He wants to take the high road, avoid personal attacks and talk about issues, not Liberals. Aware of historic mistrust of NDP economic management, Dix has constantly downplayed any notion of radical changes.

Most importantly, the NDP will be reaching out to people who don’t vote. B.C.’s dismal 50 per cent turnout leaves a huge pool of voters who could change everything. Dix thinks more would vote NDP if they could be convinced to vote at all.

Clark has a much more rambunctious approach to the campaign. She wants to confront Dix and the NDP record head-on, and gives every appearance of spoiling for a fight. Liberals have also managed, in the face of low expectations, to put together a strong field of candidates to replace the two dozen caucus members who are leaving."

http://www.timescolonist.com/monitor-a-b-c-election-primer-1.109727

Clark is still pursuing the same attack-dog stategy that she used in her run for President of the Simon Fraser University Student Society. Old dogs never change. 

 

David Young

Besides Jenny Kwan, are there any other sitting NDP M.L.A.s who were there during the 1991-2001 period who would be cabinet material?

 

jerrym

Since Adrian Dix has said that the tax increases that a NDP government will institute are minimal, it becomes all the more important to close the loopholes that do exist in the current taxes. A good example of one is the involving "the property transfer tax loophole that many big real estate players slip through with ease." The property transfer tax, originally introduced by the Vander Zalm Socreds, is 1% on the first $200,000 and 2% on the amount over $200,000.

The loophole is called a "bare trust". This legal structure exists for the sole purpose of enabling an individual or, more often, a corporation to hold title to "something, usually land or buildings. But this title alone is, as seen by the law, essentially worthless as it doesn't include "beneficial ownership" - that is use of, or rent from, or capital gains on the property. 

For income tax purposes, all tax laibility comes from ownership so there's generally no advantage in having the land title held by a bare trust. But when it comes to the provincial property transfer tax, the liability is attached to the transfer of the title, not the benefits of ownership.

So when a property with title held by a bare trust is sold, price for the the beneficial ownership is the market value. Ownership of the trust that holds the title then goes to the same pruchaser for a token fee. Because the same trust continues to hold the title, there's no title transfer and hence no property transfer tax. 

The vast majority of homeowners don't use bare trusts, but if they did, the typical saving in Metro Vancouver would be $10,000 to $20,000 when a property changes hands. For a downtown office building, however, it could add up to a couple of million or more. ...

[Thus]  the tax is typicaily paid by people involved in samll transactions and ducked by those doing really big deals. ... "

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Cayo+Loophole+helps+money+property+...

Currently, this tax is generating "three quarters of a billion a year", mostly from middle class individuals, while wealthy homeowners and corporations pay nothing. This kind of regressive loophole needs to be fixed both in terms of tax fairness and in terms of generating revenue for healthcare, education and the other functions of government. Furthermore, I am sure there are similar types of loopholes that could generate even more income for the government and allow the public to feel that they are being taxed fairly. 

Please note that, although I have included the web address for this article, it now says "Sorry this article is not available". Instead, I copied it from the newspaper (page C7) and included the address in case it comes online later.

 

 

theleftyinvestor

David Young wrote:

Besides Jenny Kwan, are there any other sitting NDP M.L.A.s who were there during the 1991-2001 period who would be cabinet material?

Mike Farnworth, Harry Lali and Sue Hammell were in cabinet on first glance. Don't know if there are any others I missed.

Leonard Krog was a backbencher 1991-96 and then lost his seat.

jerrym

The NDP's proposal to end corporate union financing of political will help reduce the crony capitalism associated with this kind of funding.

For example, the largest donation in the 2009 BC Liberal  campaign "was the New Car Dealers of BC, which contributed $229,700". In return, they received "The only significant tax change made when the HST was brought in after the 2009 election that survived the transition back to the PST. [This]was the increase in the tax rate on private vehicle sales from five per cent to 12 per cent, a change that benefited car dealers" because it meant that people buying their cars from a non-dealer, instead of paying a 5% provincial tax on the sale had to now had to pay the same 12% rate as they would if they bought a car from a dealer. 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/clear+what+opposes+less+what+stands/825...

jerrym

A Vancouver Sun analysis of the lobbyist registry found that "Four of the five companies engaged in the most lobbying in B.C. are in the oil and gas sector". 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/Lobbying+companies+lobbyist...

The NDP proposal to ban corporate (as well as union) contributions to BC political parties becomes increasingly important if the government in the future is not going to be bought off by industries seeking enormous economic gains by financing electoral favourtism and using their lobbyists to dictate the return favours. The oil and gas industry are using the combination of lobbyists and party financing to push for new pipelines, fracking, and oil drilling. If the Liberals were not in such trouble in the polls, they would likely have got an agreement to introduce policies favouring these, if not before, then after the election.

As noted in the last post, these contributions do pay off. The New Car Dealers of BC, which contributed the largest amount, $229,700, to the Liberals in 2009 and then they successfully lobbied to have "The only significant tax change made when the HST was brought in after the 2009 election that survived the transition back to the PST, ...   a change that benefited car dealers". 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/clear+what+opposes+less+what+stands/825...

 

theleftyinvestor

I had an interesting talk with an NDP MLA at his campaign opening - will the ban on corporate/union donations be also placed on municipal races, as per the unanimous resolution passed by Vancouver City Council?

The response was - ideally yes, but it requires broader consultation as in many smaller towns and cities, sometimes there is a very limited donor pool. So it's not yet clear whether this would be selectively applied to larger cities or made into a blanket rule with some allowances.

jerrym

Adrian Dix announced that an NDP government would increase both welfare rates and family bonuses yesterday in the Vancouver Langara riding of the Liberal Minister of Social Development, Moira Stilwell. This drives home how much the Liberals have ignored the plight of the poor and families in the most expensive city in which to live in Canada. For seven years during this Liberal government, BC ranked last in national child poverty rankings, recently climbing to the magnificent heights of second last (ahead of the NDP government of Manitoba - shame on them). 

In response, Clark said that child poverty is not about poor children, but is the result of parental poverty and that can be solved through jobs, such as the good paying jobs that liquefied natural gas exports will bring to BC. She didn't mention that her "1 trillion dollar" dream of such exports came not from pipelines to the coast but from her demented LNG pipedream, as not one such job exists now. 

Dix "said under the NDP's proposed $210-million B.C. Family Bonus Program as many as 300,000 families would get payments of up to $70 a month per child in family bonuses. Those monthly payments would be enough to bring about 8,400 B.C. children officially out of poverty as measured by Statistics Canada's income cut-off rates, Dix said. The monthly bonus payments apply to families earning combined incomes of $66,000 or less. Families with children who earn $25,000 or less will get the full $70 monthly payments, while others will receive lower payments based on a sliding scale of combined income. Dix said the plan seeks to improve equality rates in B.C. by increasing incomes. "It is a change in approach," he said. "It's saying that we need to deal with inequality by addressing it directly in incomes. ...

Dix also announced that social assistance rates would be increasing under an NDP government. Welfare recipients would immediately be eligible for a doubling in earnings exemptions to $400, which would not be clawed back from regular welfare payments. Single people on welfare and couples without children would receive a $20 monthly increase within two years, Dix said. Single people on welfare currently receive $610 a month. "These initiatives are targeted and focused initiatives," Dix said. "This reflects that we have decided to get at child poverty in this case and at (income) inequality by targeting it directly."

He said the NDP would fund much of the proposed changes through plans to increase taxes on corporate, bank and high-income earners, and to rework the carbon tax so gas companies pay for extra venting costs.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/plans+welfare+rates+hike+family+bon...

jerrym

Christy Clark continues to campaign on the promise of a trillion dollar pipedream of LNG pipelines and a never-ending reiteration of the alleged mistakes of the 1990s' NDP governments. The former seems so transparently false that even the right-wing media can't pay it much notice and the latter seems, for all but the party diehards, to have no relevance to today's problems.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/04/17/Reality-Check-Liberal-Platform/

Dix and the NDP have laid out a cautious program of small reforms that ends the era of social program cutbacks while promising to balance the budget in the fourth year of a NDP government. This program so far has maintained the large NDP lead in the polls. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/04/18/bc-election-2013-christy-clark-l...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

This election will once again prove that more often than not voters throw governments out of office for their sins.

The only question is whether the NDP will attract any new voters.  It is clear no one who voted for them in 2009 has any reason to change their mind and with the BC Liberals tanking that is more than enough to win a large majority. I suspect that he will attract some new voters unlike Carole who lost votes in the 2009 election.  It will also be interesting to see whether the voter turnout continues its downward trend and slips below the 50% mark.  If people do vote to turf governments rather than elect them then it should increase or at the least remain stable.  If it falls again it will show just how deep is the disillusionment with politics.

In 2009 the parties both lost votes.  The Liberals went from 807,118 to 751,661 a loss of 55,457 while the NDP went from 731,719 to 691,564 a loss of 40,155. Can Adrian inspire voters to come out and vote? If he does the BC Liberals will only retain a handful of seats.

janfromthebruce

I don't live in BC, although I have close relatives who do. Reading across the MSM and social media about this election sounds like Dix is being quite inspiring as leader for the BCNDP. I am thinking that the NDP will increase their vote count and actually attract new voters.

Anyway, that is how I am reading across media.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Dix is running a pretty safe campaign. I wouldn't call him inspiring although he is charming in his way and has a good sense of humour. The real story is the extent to which Christy Clark has utterly failed in appealing to BC voters, and how the people have turned against the Libs en masse. That said, it took them twelve years to realize their mistake so they shouldn't get any credit.

My favourite thing about Adrian Dix is that his partner, Renée Saklikar, is an excellent poet.

janfromthebruce

I also did some reading about his partner, Renee Saklikar, and she sounds wonderful. I actually found the story about Dix and diabetes, very insightful.

jerrym

The following article shows how critical corporate financing has been to the three Liberal election wins and identifies the top 20 corporate donors to the BC Liberals. Three of the top seven corporate donors are forestry companies. Not surprisingly, this industry and others have benefitted enormously from favourable government legislation and regulation. The proposed banning of corporate and union donations will benefit the public because "B.C. has among the loosest political donation rules in Canada. Many provinces don’t allow corporate and union donations, and many put limits on contributions."

Campaign finance reform will also benefit the party because, since 2005, $46 million of the $76 million in Liberal party campaign donations have come from corpoations, while the NDP got only $9 from unions. On the other hand, the NDP go $28 million from individuals while the Liberals got only $21 million from individuals.

West Fraser’s (a forest company) vice-president of finance, Larry Hughes, said the Liberals were particularly helpful with provincial timber pricing during the softwood lumber trade dispute with the United States.

West Fraser has also lobbied “various public office holders” concerning land use, timber tenure, logging and hauling, timber allocation and other regulatory issues affecting the forest products industry.

The forest sector also benefited from sweeping policy changes introduced by the Liberals in 2004, which all but eliminated the historical tie between timber and communities.

The mining sector has benefited from more than a decade of Liberal rule in B.C. Mining companies received friendly tax treatment, including elimination of the corporate capital tax and the provincial sales tax on machinery and equipment. The Liberals also cut red tape on mine permitting. ...

The natural gas sector has also benefited from Liberal rule, including from tax treatment, huge investment in areas like resource road construction and royalty reductions for summer drilling and deep natural gas exploration.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Corporations+fill+Liberal+coffers/82800...

As noted in post #265 and again in this article, these contributions do pay off. The New Car Dealers of BC, which contributed the largest amount, $229,700, to the Liberals in 2009 and then they successfully lobbied to have "The only significant tax change made when the HST was brought in after the 2009 election that survived the transition back to the PST, ...   a change that benefited car dealers". 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/clear+what+opposes+less+what+stands/825...

 

 

jerrym

The NDP put forward a modest increase in proposed spending on health care as part of their platform with a focus on improving community care and home support, mental health, and addiction services for youth, acute care and emergency services, improved rural medical services, and more spending on independent assessments of pharmaceuticals. 

"Dix's plan would include adding $105 million over three years to improve home support and community care; $45 million over three years to increase access to mental health and addiction services for children and youth; and $45 million over three years to improve acute care and emergency services in hospitals across the province. He also promised other items, including the development of a 'rural acute care initiative to improve acute care and emergency services in hospitals across B.C.'

He also promised to revitalize the Therapeutics Initiative, which provides independent assessments on drugs used in B.C. 'The Therapeutics Initiative deserves our support and it will have it,' he said. 'In our plan we will double support for the Therapeutics Initiative from its previous base to $2 million a year to ensure that those drug reviews that are done in British Columbia are done independently, without conflict of interest and defends the public and the patient first.' "

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/rolls+modest+plan+health+reform/828...

The increase in home care will not only improve health outcomes but reduce costs. Expanding the independent pharmaceutical review program will certainly also save money, as has happened under the current program, and it could save lives as drug companies often minimize side effects to maximize sales and profits. This initiative was introduced by the previous NDP government and was a target of proposed Liberal cuts, but the outcry against doing so was so overwhelmingly against it that they gave up. Programs like this, as well as the government-funded literature to doctors on drug benefits, harms and costs, have been shown to greatly reduce government expenditures on drugs in Australia and New Zealand. 

I would have like to see the NDP spend more on nurse practioners in order to both reduce costs and expand services. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

jerrym wrote:

I would have like to see the NDP spend more on nurse practioners in order to both reduce costs and expand services. 

That would be good thing for health care but an insult to the NDP's alies in the health care unions. The Nurses organization has been thrown out of the BC Fed for raiding and they cut a deal with Christy that was passed in the last week of parliament. The Liberals enacted it the day before the writ was dropped.

jerrym

According to Elections BC, corporate donations to the NDP have risen dramatically in 2012 to $999,426 from a little over $200,000 in 2011. 

Controversy also arose last week over a NDP letter sent to businesses "that have backed the Liberals, suggesting they donate at least $5,000 to the NDP 'to show your commitment to a balanced approach to government.' Liberals criticized the letters as 'a lowdown shakedown' and 'a pressure tactic by the NDP to virtually blackmail businesses across B.C. into donating to their party.'

At a recent campaign stop, Dix denied the letter, penned by NDP provincial secretary Jan O’Brien, gives an ultimatum to corporations, but rather asks for solicitations from repeat political donors. In an interview last week before this controversy arose, O’Brien readily admitted the NDP has reached out to business.

'We approach corporations and said, ‘We think …. you should consider making a donation to the B.C. NDP,’ she said. 'We would like to close the fundraising gap between us and the Liberals and even out the playing field, and some [corporations] responded.' ...

The Aquilini Group, a major development company that also owns the Vancouver Canucks, is one of the businesses that ramped up its NDP donations. Aquilini has given almost half a million dollars to the Liberals since 2005; it spent only $2,500 on the NDP until 2012, and then massively boosted donations to Dix’s party to $102,500 last year."

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/rises+polls+corporate+money...

In my opinion, the dramatic increase in corporate funding and the party's active promotion of such funding compromises the party as business always expects a large multiplier effect for any donation made. Furthermore if corporations, such as the Aquilini Group, get favourable NDP government rulings, questions will in the public's mind as whether there is much difference between the Liberals and Conservatives.

The NDP proposed introducation of a ban on corporate and union donations to all parties, discussed earler, comes none to soon as the NDP sidles up to corporations. The ban should be one of the first pieces of legislation passed and implemented.

In the United States, the seeking of large corporate donations over the last 20-25 years has shifted the Democratic party, Clinton and Obama much further to the right and helped contribute to the 2008 financial disaster, the subsequent failure to imprison any banksters, a free trade free-for-all, and a weakening of environmental and workplace regulations that, for example, has led in just the last couple of weeks a major oil spill and a fertilizer factory explosion that killed many people. 

jerrym

A poll conducted for the BC Teachers Federation found that "43.6 per cent of respondents said they would accept a small tax hike to improve education and hire more teachers, but 41.8 per cent said they do not want to pay more. The remainder were uncertain."

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Province+split+increasing+taxes+educati...

This should be one area in which an NDP government uses public support for a tax increase to fund a program that has been starved over the Liberal's term in office.

jerrym

Forgive me for double posting part of a post I made to the David Eby thread, but I feel it's important in understanding why better funding for education in this province is so important and why reversing the damage done to the educational sector is so important.  

The historical attitude since BC entered Confederation in 1871, as explained to me by Gordon Selman who was one of Canada's leading historians on adult education, has been that this is a high wage province with a moderate climate and incredible beauty that attracts adults from other provinces and the rest of the world. If they come here as adults, we don't need to spend money training people born here. Besides, until the 1980s, this province also had many high paying jobs in fishing, mining and logging for those who had little education. This is why the first university created in the province was established as a branch of McGill in 1906, not by the province. It's why "Tired of over-crowded conditions (full-time enrolment reaches 1200 for 1921-22), students organize province-wide publicity campaign to persuade the government to complete the Point Grey campus" (http://www.library.ubc.ca/archives/hist_ubc.html), long after Alberta and Saskatchewan established universities despite their not becoming provinces until 1905 and despite having much smaller populations. It's why UBC was the only university in the province until 1965. It's why BC faced an educational crisis in the 1980s when the fishing, mining and logging industries collapsed and the province did not have the educational facilities to do massive retraining and education. While the province has been forced to significantly expand education in the last 30 years as the economy changed, it is not surprising that the professions and managerial positions in this province are still dominated by people from other provinces, including myself, and other countries (even with the job discrimination that occurs) to a far greater extent than the percentage of the population they represent. For example, in the 1990s the Dean of Business at Simon Fraser Univerity pointed out that 5% of the MBAs in managerial positions were trained in the province. The same attitude applied to the skilled trades. BC simply imported the vast majority of its tradesmen from Europe after WWII because it was so attractive to these people from a impoverished, war-torn continent. Consequently, because of the historically reduced funding provided education in this province, many BC born students end up being second class citizens in their own province. 

Aristotleded24

Catchfire wrote:
Dix is running a pretty safe campaign. I wouldn't call him inspiring although he is charming in his way and has a good sense of humour.

Why wouldn't he? When you're in politics and your opponent is headed towards the cliff, the best thing you can do is get out of the way. Why risk it by saying the wrong thing?

Besides, he is clearly the front-runner in this race, and will probably start receiving a great deal of more scrutiny anyways.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

I am not saying it's a bad strategy -- in fact, I have been at a number events lately where he has spoken and I find him disarming, funny and charming. I was only reacting to Jan's suggestion that according to media reports he is "inspiring."

Actually, I was at the CUPE BC convention and he made a joke just after he entered and got a hearty, but not ecstatic welcome from the crowd. "If I was Dave Barrett," he said, "You guys would have been jumping up and down and cheering yourself hoarse. You would have left here inspired and so confident, thinking: Dave Barrett has got this in the bag. He doesn't need my help.  But Dave Barrett's not here. This Adrian Dix fellow? He needs my help."

I lol'd.

Aristotleded24

Catchfire wrote:
I am not saying it's a bad strategy -- in fact, I have been at a number events lately where he has spoken and I find him disarming, funny and charming. I was only reacting to Jan's suggestion that according to media reports he is "inspiring."

Fair enough, although he did seem a bit "wooden" to me at times.

theleftyinvestor

Catchfire wrote:

Actually, I was at the CUPE BC convention and he made a joke just after he entered and got a hearty, but not ecstatic welcome from the crowd. "If I was Dave Barrett," he said, "You guys would have been jumping up and down and cheering yourself hoarse. You would have left here inspired and so confident, thinking: Dave Barrett has got this in the bag. He doesn't need my help.  But Dave Barrett's not here. This Adrian Dix fellow? He needs my help."

I lol'd.

I'm pretty sure I've heard him use that exact joke before. Possibly at the BCNDP convention last year where the candidates for fed leadership all came and had a forum.

janfromthebruce

Also jerrym, Cummins 2Xs in the debate stated that Dix would be premier elect in the election. It doesn't get better than that. Thus the enemy of my enemy is my friend!

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Cummins and his parties meltdown is not good for the NDP. The more votes he steals from Christy's right wing the better it is.  He looks like a loser and his party looks like it can't even do the simple things like file nomination papers on time. His meltdown could lead to the Liberals retaining many seats that otherwise might have gone to the NDP.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Christy can't even get her own candidates to believe her half truths and misinformation. I liked photo radar because I could always spot the vans long before I got to them.  They caught a lot of drivers that were not paying attention to the road ahead.

The question also allowed Dix to get in his best dig at Christy.

Quote:

During the televised leaders' debate Christy Clark dismissed the idea of reintroducing photo radar to discourage speeding drivers, but a veteran police officer running on her BC Liberal team has said he supports using the technology.

"I think photo radar was effective," said Mike Morris, the BC Liberal candidate in Prince George-Mackenzie.

The NDP introduced photo radar in the 1990s and the BC Liberals dismantled the program after they formed the government in 2001.

All four leaders in the April 29 debate responded to a viewer's question by saying they would not reintroduce photo radar, and Clark was particularly strong in her opposition. "The NDP brought it in," said Clark. "It was a mistake. It was a tax grab for the government and I will not bring it back."

A few days earlier, in an interview alongside Justice Minister Shirley Bond in their shared Prince George campaign office, Morris expressed a contrary view rooted in the 32 years he worked for the RCMP. He was in charge of policing in the north for the last nine years of his career.

...

NDP leader Adrian Dix used the opportunity to talk about the importance of red light cameras, a jab at Clark who the Vancouver Sun reported had driven on a dare through a red light with her 11-year-old son and the reporter in the car.

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/2013/04/30/PhotoRadar/

janfromthebruce

we'll see how it goes.

theleftyinvestor

The loss of a Con-didate in Vancouver-False Creek is a gift to Sam Sullivan who is also not tarnished by association with Clark's government (although he is tarnished by his own record). Matt Toner will have a much more difficult job now.

jerrym

With the withdrawal of the third BC Conservative candidate from the election for comments on Twitter or newspapers, the Conservative campaign is starting to look frayed at the edges. 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/04/28/b-c-conservatives-fire-third-can...

A fourth BC Conservative candidate resigned because of an impared driving charge. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/story/2013/04/28/bc-votes-cons...

In addition, the BC Conservative brand was hurt by the fact that four of their candidates must now appear on the ballot without the BC Conservative party's name beside their name because the party failed to file the appropriate paperwork for them before the filing dateline.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/Tory+candidates+unaffiliate...

While this hurt the party image, party leader John Cummins did a reasonable job in speaking to his base in the debates. "In his workmanlike way, he spoke for a still significant group of disaffected British Columbians — many of them in rural communities — who feel unfairly treated by the carbon tax, by promising to abolish same." ...

Furthermore, knowing his main competition for votes on the right was the BC Liberals, he helped out Dix as he repeatedly "piled onto the premier as well, chronicling the Liberal record of debt, deficits, spending and the claim to have already balanced the budget, a mere four weeks into the current fiscal year." The Conservative Liberal competition should help the NDP.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/Vaughn+Palmer+confidence+gr...

jerrym

The link to the following website shows the final list of candidates of all parties in all ridings with connections to their own websites, Twitter or Facebook accounts where you can get more information about them. At the bottom of the website page, there is a summary of the number of candidates for all parties and a brief history of the "Minor Parties" of BC [here classified as the Greens, BC Conservatives, Libertarians, Communist Party, Youth Political Party, Platinum Party, and Work Less Party (no doubt some of you with a stereotypical image of BC are thinking 'only in BC')].

While the Liberals and NDP are running a full slate of candidates of 85 candidates, the Greens have dropped from a full slate in the last election to 61 candidates. Since Green voters tend to split 2 to 1 historically for the NDP when no Green candidate is present, the lack of Green candidates in these ridings and the admission that the Greens are pouring nearly all their resources into the Victoria area ridings in the hopes of winning one or two, should help the NDP in these other constituencies. However, this is partly offset by the somewhat stronger image of the Greens compared to the 2009 election. 

The BC Conservatives have 56 candidates including 4 who are not listed as BC Conservatives on the ballots because the party failed to file the correct paperwork for them. Four other candidates were dropped because of comments they made on Twitter, or in newspapers, or because of an imparied driving charge. Nevertheless, this is a large increase from the 24 candidates that the BC Cons ran in the last election and should therefore eat into the BC Liberal vote somewhat in those ridings where they did not run candidates in the last election, thereby helping the NDP. The failure to file papers for four BC Conservative candidates and the resignations of four other Conservative candidates does hurt the image of the party. However, Cummins' focus during the debate on issues that resonate with the party base, such as eliminating the carbon tax and lowering taxes, should keep most of their small core vote in line, despite the fact that he was on the defensive over candidate issues for much of the debate

http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/candidates-for-may-2013-bc-election.html

jerrym

Because Adrian Dix fought Christy to more or less a draw, the election is all but over. The Vancouver Sun reported that, although Dix and Clark "traded several one-liners, neither delivered a decisive blow, and many of the exchanges ended inconclusively because time for the topics ran out". 

Dix successfully answered Clark's main criticism, which was that the NDP was against nearly all economic development, by "citing a litany of industries his party supports". He then went on distinguish how the party is different from the Liberals by saying “What I don’t agree with is, in these times, saying that we should abandon our commitment to climate change”. 

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/goes+green+Clark+pushes+eco...

Four years later the HST is still giving the Liberals trouble, as noted by Vaughn Palmer in his article on the debate. Dix reminded voters "just how much baggage both Clark and the B.C. Liberal party are packing into this provincial campaign. ... [He] nailed the problem early on when he brought up the B.C. Liberals’ credibility-shattering experience with the harmonized sales tax. Four years of fiscal policy wasted on a tax that was foisted on the electorate without warning, 10 weeks after an election campaign in which it was barely mentioned and then only as something that was not on the radar screen.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/Vaughn+Palmer+confidence+gr...

At this point, the main thing the NDP needs to do to win is simply avoid controversies. 

jerrym

One controversy that the NDP may have headed off relates to the NDP candidate Jane Shin in Burnaby Lougheed, a riding where elections have typically close with margins of 65 to 738 votes in the ridings composing parts of the current riding since 2001.  (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/ridings/008/)

Eleven years ago when she was 21, Shin, of Korean descent, said "I'm fed up with the chinkasauruses roaming about in Vancouver" on a website. The Liberals also demanded her resignation because they said she allegedly had misleading statements in her online curriculum vitae. 

However, the NDP has defended Shin. Jenny Kwan, the longest serving NDP MLA and of Chinese descent, "said the party stands by Shin because she was only 21 when the comments were made. 'I’ll use myself as an example. If I made those comments today, I should be fired,' Kwan said. 'Jane made those comments in the context of a gaming forum 11 years ago and I think today she has matured. She is a sincere, respectful person. She oozes respect when you talk to her.' ...

The Liberals have called into question Shin’s credentials, noting that she has billed herself as a medical doctor and only recently amended her online profiles to reflect she received her medical doctorate from a small university on the Caribbean island of St. Lucia. On Tuesday the B.C. College of Physicians and Surgeons confirmed that Shin is not licensed to practice medicine in B.C. but that she is entitled to call herself a doctor since she has a medical doctorate from Spartan Health Sciences University in St. Lucia. The facility’s program is recognized by both the B.C. College of Physicians and Surgeons and the Medical Council of Canada. The Liberals also pointed to another candidate profile in Vankoreans.com, a Korean-language website that reported Shin had received a “doctoral degree” in genetics and cell biology from the University of British Columbia.

Shin, who is employed as a medical educator at Vancouver Community college and until recently also taught on contract at the B.C. Institute of Technology, told The Vancouver Sun the confusion around her credentials stems from poor translations with Korean media. ...

Tung Chan, the former chief executive officer of S.U.C.C.E. S. S., the Vancouver-based immigrant services society, said he doesn’t think Shin should resign for her rash remark even though it would have offended some in the Chinese community.

Chan, a former Vancouver city councillor, said it is easy to call for a resignation but society also needs to practice tolerance and forgiveness.

'In a multicultural society where there are so many people of different cultural backgrounds and upbringings, there is going to be conflict. And like any conflict there are going to be words said that people would regret and change positions on,' Chan said. 'We should have the broadness and inclusiveness to forgive. Not to forget, but to forgive and to allow room for that kind of behaviour as someone grows up.' "

 http://www.vancouversun.com/news/bc-election/defends+Jane+Shin+over+chin...

I suspect that in the future there will be an ongoing number of embarassing statements that all political parties will have to deal with coming from the Internet, Twitter, Facebook etc., considering how young people sometimes comment on social media. While the damage created by a one or posibly two candidates (a Kelowna NDP candidate also resigned over her comments)  so far has not created broad disenchantment with a party during an election, the effect of having several such candidates can be devastating, as was seen last year with the Wildrose Party in Alberta and could happen to the BC Conservatives in this election after they had four candidates resign. Political parties will have to review very carefully their potential candidates and develop guidelines on what can be forgiven and what not. 

jerrym

The following article describes the electoral battle in Jane Shin's Burnaby Lougheed riding. 

Although it notes that Shin's negative comment about Chinese BCers is an issue, it also points out that the Liberals have a number of issues of their own. The proposed twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline, which is supported by the Liberals and opposed by the NDP, is a major issue because of a 2007 oil spill in the riding by Kinder Morgan's already existing pipeline that caused the evacuation of 250 residents and $15 million in damage.

Shin, noted that when she has talked to students at Simon Fraser University and elsewhere she has found that the " 'NDP's plan for $100 million in needs-based grants ... really resonates with them'.  She said Burnaby-Lougheed families also appreciate Dix's vision to improve home support and community care, and increase access to mental health and addiction services."

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Hospital+pipeline+twinning+issues+resid...

The Liberals are also facing criticism over severe cuts to Burnaby Hospital during their 12 year tenure in office that has resulted in a hospital that is "old, flawed underfunded ... [and] should be torn down".

(http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/11/29/bc-burna...)

In fact, the pre-election Liberals' budget involved major cuts to health care that will particularly impact the riding, in part because of the Burnaby Hospital situation. The Liberals plan to "balance their pre-election budget by making significant cuts to planned spending on front-line health care services and increasing MSP premiums, says the Hospital Employees’ Union. That means health authorities will fail to meet targets for direct care hours in seniors care facilities, despite recommendations by B.C.’s ombudsperson that government take action to address inadequate staffing levels. Planned health spending announced last year for the fiscal year 2013-2014 has been reduced by $234 million in today’s budget. The budget documents forecast that health authorities and societies will spend $90 million less on front-line health care services than forecast in last year’s plan."

http://www.heu.org/news-media/news-releases/bc-liberals-balance-election...

The severe Liberal cuts to health care, education and social services have helped make the NDP proposed increase in funding to these areas very attractive to many voters.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Tung Chan got it right in the article quoted above.  This young woman made an intemperate comment on a gaming site when she was 21.  The fact that she had at that time spent 10 years in a Burnaby culture as a Korean immigrant where the Chinese are one of the dominant forces does not make her comment excusable but understandable.

What makes her different than the candidate in Kelowna is that she now says her words were wrong and she is sorry she typed them.  The Kelowna candidate didn't apologize but essentially doubled down on her racism. As well Dr. Shin is not a part of either dominant culture in Burnaby unlike the white woman.

The Liberals are willing to fight dirty to hang onto this riding because it is one of the ridings the NDP must win to regain power.  I live in it and I will certainly be marking an X beside Dr. Shin's name.

voice of the damned

However, the NDP has defended Shin. Jenny Kwan, the longest serving NDP MLA and of Chinese descent, "said the party stands by Shin because she was only 21 when the comments were made. 'I’ll use myself as an example. If I made those comments today, I should be fired,' Kwan said. 'Jane made those comments in the context of a gaming forum 11 years ago and I think today she has matured. She is a sincere, respectful person. She oozes respect when you talk to her.' ...

It seems to me that there are two distinct arguments being conflated here.

1. Shin today is a better person than whe was ten years ago.

2. Shin was 21 at the time she made the comments, and hence too immature to be held fully accountable.

The first argument(which is the only one Kwan is directly quoted as making) is valid, but it could apply to anyone who had become a better person over time, regardless of their age. A fifty year old could just as easily argue he is now a better person than he was when he was making offensive comments at age forty.

The second argument, the appeal to youthful immaturity, I don't think is valid at all, at least not as long as the NDP intends to run candidates who are actually younger than 21. Because you can't very well tell people that they should vote for Pierre-Luc Dusseault(19 when he became a federal MP), but then turn around and say that 21 year olds are too immature to understand why racial slurs are wrong.

Like I say, Kwan was only quoted directly as making the "passage of time" argument, not the "poor dumb kid" argument. I do wonder, though, how much weight anyone would attach to the former argument if it were made about somebody who was middle aged at the time they typed the original remarks.

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

This is what Chan said that I agree with totally. Especially the part about different cultural backgrounds and upbringings inevitably leading to conflict. 

I agree that her age is not as big a factor as the time period since the remark and her frank assessment that it was wrong to post it. We all should be allowed to grow and repent for our mistakes, at any age.

Quote:

Chan, a former Vancouver city councillor, said it is easy to call for a resignation but society also needs to practice tolerance and forgiveness.

'In a multicultural society where there are so many people of different cultural backgrounds and upbringings, there is going to be conflict. And like any conflict there are going to be words said that people would regret and change positions on,' Chan said. 'We should have the broadness and inclusiveness to forgive. Not to forget, but to forgive and to allow room for that kind of behaviour as someone grows up.' "


jerrym

Some other observations on the Burnaby Lougheed riding where Jane Shin is running. 

The article on the riding quoted above makes note of the fact that in the riding "About one in five riding residents speak Chinese at home." 

(http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Hospital+pipeline+twinning+issues+Burna...)

Also, in the Richmond ridings, which already are some of the most difficult for the NDP to win historically, "50.2% of the population are Chinese" 

[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_(British_Columbia_federal_electoral_district)]

It will interesting to see from the election results if her comments have a significant impact on the Chinese vote.

This riding was also Harry Bloy's riding, the only MLA to support Christy Clark in her run for the Liberal leadership. Clark rewarded Bloy by appointing him to cabinet. Bloy, who was described by journalist Vaughn Palmer as "the premier's hand-picked serial bungler" for his numerous faux pas that are too numerous to mention, was the Minister of Multiculturism who was involved in the Quick Wins ethnic vote strategy that backfired and led to a revolt in March that almost cost Clark her job. Of course, being a Clark suporter, saved Bloy. Therefore the Liberals also could have some problems with the ethnic vote here and elsewhere.  (http://www.jamesplett.com/tag/harry-bloy/) (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/03/05/full-pundit-there-are-no-...

Thus, when Liberal candidate claims that Bloy "definitely left a legacy and people are really positive as to what he’s done”, he does not do himself any favours as anyone with a moderate political interest knows Bloy was continually in the news for his mistakes. (http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Hospital+pipeline+twinning+issues+Burna...)

The 'independent' candidate mentioned in the above article is Christine Clark, who is actually one of the four Conservative candidates who the party did not get their paperwork into Elections BC in time and therefore cannot have Conservative beside her name on the ballot, although she is still 'affiliated' with the party. She is no relation to Christy Clark. She ran for the BC Conservatives in the Port Moody Coquitlam byelection in April 2012 in what used to be Christy Clark's old riding, thereby raising loud protests from the Liberals that the Conservatives were trying to confuse voters. Now she is running in the riding where Christy attended university. A coincidence I am sure. 

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Harry Bloy had the support of much of the Chinese business community in Burnaby. He was as sleazy a politician as they come. His Burnaby Hospital review panel dealings hopefully will cause many people to think twice about voting for the corrupt Liberals.  Ken Kramer the Liberal candidate had no profile in the community prior to the election.

Quote:

Bloy was responding after emails leaked to the New Democratic Party showed the Burnaby Hospital Community Consultation Committee — which has conducted several public meetings on the future of Burnaby Hospital, and holds itself out to be impartial — appeared to be orchestrated behind the scenes by B.C. Liberals to make the government look good.

Those emails show the committee’s citizen chair — Pamela Gardner, who has served as a B.C. Liberal Party riding president in Burnaby-Edmonds — has been in contact with key party insiders about the review.

They also show Gardner tapped former B.C. Liberal Party president Sonja Sanguinetti to write the final report, and that she told B.C. Liberal operatives that Sanguinetti would say that problems at Burnaby Hospital aren’t “a reflection on the Liberal government but more on the Chair of Fraser Health.”

“It’s not the Liberals that force and continue to allow the citizens of Burnaby to suffer,” Gardner wrote.

Gardner has not responded to repeated requests for comment.

On Thursday, Bloy said the emails were simply an expression of personal opinions by people passionate about the issue.

“Everybody who was working on the committee exchanged some of their views and how they thought it was going,” said Bloy, who received the messages in question at his personal email account.

“I wasn’t concerned that it was partisan. Some people expressed some of their own personal views,” he added, saying he did not respond to the emails.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Liberal+Harry+Bloy+defends+controversia...

The riding has 49% of the population whose mother tongue is other than English. The top three languages are Chinese (all dialects) at 22.1%, Korean at 5.3% and Italian at 2.1%.

It remains to be seen how much of an effect her remarks will have.

jerrym

Christy is now running around the province proclaiming that the NDP intend to kill the capital projects in their communities by deliberately lying about an NDP platform statement. She says that because the NDP platform says "we will not be making capital commitments beyond what is available in the current capital plan", the NDP will have be no new capital projects.

In Penticton, Christy said this means no new hospital. In Kamloops, Christy said this means no new $600 million expansion of the Royal Inland Hospital. In Penticton, Christy said this means no new hospital. In Oliver, Christy said this means no new correctional centre. In Ashcroft, Christy said this means "no new schools, no new hospitals, no new roads".

But Bruce Ralston, co-chair of the NDP platform committee says it's also wrong. "It's false," he said Thursday. "She's not telling the truth." Ralston pointed to the NDP platform, which says, "an NDP government will continue with projects that are currently underway."

Then comes the line under contention: "These are challenging fiscal times, and we will not be making capital commitments beyond what is available in the current capital plan." Clark said she takes that to mean anything not under construction now is dead. Ralston called that interpretation wrong.

"What we've said is we will honour all the capital commitments they've funded in the budget and we will continue the planning process for all the projects that are in that stage of development," he said, adding that list includes all projects Clark is saying the NDP will kill.

"I've been saying for a year and a half that we will build stuff too. There's no intention of having a pause or anything like that. That would send the wrong signal. She's just distorting what we've said," he said." It seems to be the continuing theme of her campaign."

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Clark+truthful+projects+says/833201...

This actually provides the NDP with a great opportunity. By displaying that this is false in their statements and ads, the NDP can play to two of Christy's biggest perceived weaknesses: her deceitfulness  and her hypocrisy. At the same time, she is warning that the NDP is the party of tax and spend, she is saying they will spend nothing on capital projects, while offering economic goodies all over the place herself. However, the NDP needs to bang this home again and again as it is obvious that Christy is practising the art of the big lie as outlined by Goebbels, Hitler's Propaganda Minister: tell a big lie often enough and people will believe you. 

theleftyinvestor

There's a lot of people who are incredibly deluded about the NDP platform. My now-ex-workplace's owner (everyone just got laid off) was ranting about how the NDP will introduce a capital tax on his business's money. After clarifying what he was saying, I managed to gather that he believes the NDP's reintroduction of a capital tax on banks will not end there, and they will also introduce a capital tax on all businesses. It's nowhere in the platform, but he believes it to be true and uses it as an argument against them.

This man happens to be very intelligent. I get the sense that, rather than fabricate these lies himself, he has been listening to dishonest candidates and advertising that has convinced him the NDP will come after everything he holds dear. When in reality the BCNDP has been campaigning very pro-small-business.

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