So, how is Alberta doing under the Tories?
Hey all, i've been avid follower of Canadian politics only since about 2004 (mainly Federal and Ontario), so I was wondering how things have fared in Alberta - speficially, how the Tories have maintained their popular support for about four decades now.
What is about conservatism in Alberta? It's hard to imagine what a dystopian nightmare that decades of Mike Harris rule here in Ontario would bring, but obviously conditions there are different. Can the province's successes (i.e. relatively high employment rate) be simply attributed to the oil sector? Is the PC party closer to centre spectrum (more 'red' tories) when contrasted with their other provincial and federal counter-parts? Are there any strong progressive movements in the province (in Edmonton, maybe)? With the rise of the far-right Wildrose party, could we see a significant split the right-wing vote, thereby creating an opening for the NDP to wield more influence?
I don't know exactly how much our province gets in from "oil and gas" as a percentage but it's a large chunk of our revenue. When the price of oil is low the province makes money. When the price of oil is high the province makes a lot of money.
So I'd say our sucess as a province has been largely due to our extraction of oil and gas and coal. We may have been able to do well without it but it has sure helped. Now, the management of the extraction of those resources is a whole other topic of conversation so I won't get into that much. Any competent government of just about any political stripe could have turned Alberta into a hypothetical varient of the successful province it is today. Hell, we have managed success despite 40+ years of bungling mismanagement by the PC's!
Conservatism in Alberta is hard to pin down, even for me who has lived here for almost all my life under the PC's. I should also disclose that I am subject to some conservative type "sympathies" myself, moreso it seems with each passing year.
The PC's have been in power now for so long, I think it fair you'd have to categorize different era's depending on who was leader and how they ran things. They have been more conservative and they have been less conservative, hard to tell from inside the hidden kingdom but at the moment I'd say they are being maybe a little less conservative than they usually are. "Allison REDford and the Red Tories ruining this province!" etc etc etc....
Problem is, we seem to give the PC's a new chance to fuck things up each time they get a new leader. I remember when Klein was around, lots of unhappy Albertans, the PC inner circles pushed him out the door and Stelmach took over. Stelmach! And went on to win even more seats than Klein had!
I fear the same thing will happen under Redford, that and the tendency to re-elect the incumbents in uncertain economic times.
I don't know of any strong progressive movements as such but I don't get out much. Sure haven't heard of any. Not sure about the WRA or how well they will do in the next election. I think they will for sure split the vote on the right but since so much of the vote is on the right anyways even split up it will be difficult to challenge at the polls on election night in my opinion.
The NDP has nowhere to go in Alberta but up, both provincially and federally. With so few seats I don't see more influence for them unless maybe there is some wierd and rare sort of minority government.
If you look at history we keep electing the same bums over and over then once in awhile we pick a different bunch of bums to elect over and over. At this point I don't think another 4 years under the PC's is that unlikely of an option.
Oh well it could be worse Morton could be in charge I guess.
wow, HA, thanks for synopus on Alberta political conservative culture. Sure found what you said insightful and I say that with sincerity if for some odd reason you misunderstand the intent of my comment here.
Which ones would they be, why, and why would they be increasing?
No problen jan, just keep in mind I make no claims to be any sort of political expert and I have been spectacularily wrong in many of my political guesses/predictions. Could be I am totally off base here too, wouldn't be the first time.
As for the conservative type sympathies, I guess 2 examples would be defence spending and gun control. I would suspect my position on both of those would be at odds with the majority of the posters here.
Back in the 80's in my disasterous university days I was very much left of centre. Idealistic youth? Wanting to fit in with my friends at the time? Who knows. For certain I am not as big a fan of the idea of the dictatorship of the proletariat as I was 20+ years ago.
Back on topic, I work for the provincial gov't, and we usually try and get any work related contracts for the coming summer signed off by April 1, the start of the fiscal year. So a lot of that goes on in March. Word has come down from on high that we are to try and get all that taken care of by February this year, in anticipation of a possible spring election. Now we may just be covering our bases here just in case but I wouldn't be surprised at all if we are in a spring election out here.
Well HA, as you got to see many rural and Northern Ontario MPs struggled with supporting gun control as it was presently being delivered in Canada, and that the NDP wanted to make changes that would work for rural and northern Canadians during the debate on the registry, and not throw the baby out with the bath water. Since I am from rural Ontario I understand their position. So one shouldn't make assumptions on this board that all NDPers are the same either.
I'm not even sure if gun control and military spending are good examples of classic left/right issues anyways. Best I could come up with at the time.
Anyways, I think population demographics are going to come into play this election or sometime in the future.
Alberta Popularion by year (from wikipedia)
1976 1.8 million
1986 2.4 million
1996 3.3 million
2006 3.3 million
So it's pretty much doubled since I've been an Albertan. Lots of people have moved here from other parts of the country or world where voting Conservative isn't a tradition. So maybe the "conservativeness" in Alberta will get diluted as the demographics change. Although if you are working 2 weeks on/2 weeks off for 12 hours a day in some fly in oilpatch camp up north rushing to the polls on election day may not be your highest priority. Voter turnout has been less than spectacular the last few elections here too.
Unlike other provinces, where political power may switch back and forth between party A and party B with party C making an occasional appearance in power, Alberta has only ever been governed by 4 parties.
1905 - 1921 Liberals
1921 - 1935 United Farmers of Alberta
1935 - 1971 Social Credit
1971 - ??? Progressive Conservatives
Unlike the UFA and the Socreds, the Liberals didn't entirely dissappear from the political landscape in Alberta after they went out of power but I'm not too sure how closely the current Liberal party of Alberta resembles that of the 1920's.
The UFA were an interesting bunch. Probably the most "leftist" of the parties that have governed Alberta.
Unlike other provinces, where political power may switch back and forth between party A and party B with party C making an occasional appearance in power, Alberta has only ever been governed by 4 parties.
1905 - 1921 Liberals
1921 - 1935 United Farmers of Alberta
1935 - 1971 Social Credit
1971 - ??? Progressive Conservatives
I'm counting only one party there - must be my faulty math.
Didn't Social Credit linger for a while before finally vanishing? I seem to remember them still electing some MLAs after their doom/defeat.
Socreds were the opposition in '71 with 25 seats, they won only 4 seats in the next 2 elections in '75 and '79, then no seats in '82. Apparantly still around these days too! Who knew? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Alberta_general_elections