Vancouver Municipal Election: Saturday, November 15, 2014

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terrytowel

Gregor Robertson needs to start saying "You can vote to stop Kirk LaPointe. But you can't stop him by voting for Manna Wong. That actually will not stop Kirk LaPointe".

It worked so well for John Tory, so why not take a page from him?

Stockholm

I don't know that Kirk LaPointe scares anyone...he's to the left of John Tory so why would anyone voting for Meena Wong feel any compulsion to "stop" him??

PS: I never actually heard John Tory explicitly say "You cannot vote for Olivia Chow if you want to stop Rob Ford"...and in any case that shtick never really worked. Chow fell behind Tory in the summer and then things just froze. She polled as low as 19% and then got over 23% in the end so there is no evidence that people moved from Chow to Tory at the very end...if anything Chow re-gained a bit of support in the final days.

Stockholm

terrytowel wrote:

If you want to stop right-wing Kirk LaPoint, you cannot vote for Meena Wong.

 

If you want to stop right-wing John Tory, you cannot vote for rightwing John Tory.

Adam T

Vancouver mayoral debate on CBC Early Edition:

http://www.cbc.ca/earlyedition/2014/11/12/early-edition-mayoral-debate/

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..re the kinder morgan pipeline..under vision's watch tanker traffic has doubled in vancouver. nary a word about that from vision. as in the case of homelessness robertson can't be trusted because he says one thing and does another.

..also if electing lapoint was acquiescing to pipelines then the ndp would have done so after the last provincial election. instead, under hogan, they reconfirmed their position against northern gateway and kinder morgan. not only that, they came out against site c which is the building of a dam for the purposes of adding fracking infrastructure. these positions were forced by the resistance on the ground and the continous polls against.

..the emergence of the new cope approach and the start up of vancouver 1st is a direct response to the business as usual no mater who gets in. they are rallying points for those sick and tired of this business as usual and a call out for a more direct involvement and resistance in our communities.

Stockholm

epaulo13 wrote:

..re the kinder morgan pipeline..under vision's watch tanker traffic has doubled in vancouver. nary a word about that from vision. as in the case of homelessness robertson can't be trusted because he says one thing and does another.

Could the mayor of Vancouver actually do anything to stop an increase in tanker traffic beyond using his office as a bully pulpit? Is there any municipal jurisdiction whatsoever here? 

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..of course. for starters resist the pipeline in the same manner as the city burnaby. you begin by raising the issue and organizing around it. the latest poll taken in burnaby was 70% opposed. this in not bully pulpit this is representing the people of burnaby.

eta:

Burnaby to appeal NEB decision granting Kinder Morgan access to city-owned land

The City of Burnaby is refusing to back down from its fight with Kinder Morgan, saying it plans to appeal a National Energy Board decision granting the energy giant access to a municipal conservation area.

The city has tried in recent months to block the company from conducting survey work in the area on Burnaby Mountain -- Kinder Morgan's preferred route for the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline.

But the energy board ruled last week that Burnaby can't stop the company's activities because the geotechnical work is needed by the board so it can make recommendations to the federal government about whether the project should proceed.

Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan says he wasn't surprised by the NEB ruling, but he questions the energy regulator's legal authority to consider constitutional questions relating to municipal bylaws.

Such a power has never been previously found to exist in any prior board decision or by any court, he said....

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/metro/Burnaby+appeal+decision+granting+Kinder+Morgan+access+city/10331785/story.html#ixzz3HehsK424

 

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

If you want to stop right-wing Kirk LaPoint, you cannot vote for Meena Wong.

If you want to stop right-wing John Tory, you cannot vote for rightwing John Tory.

Toronto didn't listen to you.

PrairieDemocrat15

Regarding election signs, I'm not so sure how much they can predict. Even if there are a lot of signs out, it only shows how a small percentage of the electorate (and the most politically active at that) will vote.

In Winnipeg, I also toured serveral areas of the city to see how the race was shaping up. Judy was killing it in the sign war, but ended up getting trounced on E-Day. Although, I have been told by a former high level NDP policy operative (who has connections to people in the Judy camapign) that they were pulling Bowman voters to the polls on E-Day, suggesting people previously identified as Judy supporters switch to Bowman at the 11th hour. This may have been the case after her campaign seemed to have been spooked by the 38-36 poll and had a few media blunders in the last few days.

I think, the last few years of elections at all levels, but especially provinically, have showed us campaigns matter, even the last hours of them.

NorthReport

Gregor Robertson apologizes during CBC Vancouver debate

Gregor Robertson opens debate with an apology, and ends with appeal to COPE supporters to vote Vision instead

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/gregor-robertson-apologiz...

NorthReport

Here's a conspiracy theory for you: Is Gregor Robertson trying to throw the election?  Laughing

The conspiracy theory goes like this.

• Robertson has insisted that he won't run for the federal Liberals in 2015 if he's reelected as mayor.

• The person who mentioned this is convinced that Vision Vancouver is "coasting" in this election.

• He said that rather than spending money to market the party to voters, Vision decided to hire lawyers in the last 200 hours of the campaign, turning LaPointe into a martyr for free speech.

• According to this theory, Robertson wants to lose narrowly. He could claim that he was thwarted by Big Oil. Then he could use that as a springboard to get elected to Parliament as a federal Liberal to deliver the Broadway subway to Vancouverites.


http://www.straight.com/news/767541/heres-conspiracy-theory-you-gregor-r...

Stockholm

I find that conspiracy theory ridiculous for several reasons beyond the most obvious.

First of all, if Robertson REALLY wanted to run federally, he could easily have simply announced that he didn't want to run for a third term and that he was going to run for a federal seat - and he would have been undefeated and seemingly in high repute...but he didn't

Second of all, if he was going to claim he was thwarted by "big oil" it wouldn't make any sense to run federally for the Liberals since they support Kinder-Morgan and Keystone XL and are quite friendly with Big Oil!

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Quote:

One thing to consider in Vancouver is Gregor Robertson has denounced the expansion of the Kinder-Morgan pipeline while LaPointe is in favour of more tanker traffic etc... if LaPointe wins it will be interpreted as meaning that people in vancouver are in favour of more pipelines and more tanker traffic and it will encourage the BC and federal governments to follow through with Kinder-Morgan and probably Northern gateway as well.

..here's a response to this point.

quote:

But supporting Vision Vancouver based on their stance against Kinder Morgan is not progressive, nor is it environmentalist. It reduces the struggle for environmental justice to a narrow, single-issue fight.

It removes the openness and diverse reach of environmentalism. It removes the imperative for thinking critically in a time of change. It takes a radical movement and plants it firmly on the side of green capitalism, pro-market solutions, and neoliberal governance. Most important of all, it erases any intersectional, systemic, or long-term analysis of the forces that create the necessity for things like tar sands extraction and bitumen shipment in the first place.

http://themainlander.com/2014/11/11/pipelines-and-elites-the-politics-of...

NorthReport

And the winner is NPA courtesy of COPE Laughing

----------------------------------

The Real Reason Geoff Meggs Earns Labour's Vote

The Vision councillor stands with us, now it's time to stand up for him, says Jim Sinclair.

If there's one message all union members should take away from the NPA's attack ads on Vision Vancouver's Geoff Meggs, it is this: you need to vote for Geoff and his Vision team.

The NPAs attack ads are as false as they are fierce, and they reveal exactly what the NPA is all about -- a party that dismisses the very people who make the city work.

The man behind the ads, NPA president Peter Armstrong, is one of B.C.'s most notorious union busters. Remember his mean-spirited lockout of Rocky Mountaineer's long serving and loyal workers. He broke that union, and families suffered as a result. With $400,000 in funding for the NPA coming directly from Peter Armstrong, in the second largest political donation in B.C. history, it's no surprise his initials are in his party's name.

So what has Armstrong and the NPA so riled about Geoff Meggs?

Simple, Meggs told the women and men who work for the City of Vancouver that they do a good job.

He told them that they make an important contribution to building this great city we call home. And he said what Vision Vancouver has been saying for six years, that there won't be an expansion of contracting out.

In my books, that is real leadership.

Given Geoff Meggs' long career in the labour movement, working to improve the lives of modest and middle-income families, it would be bizarre if he said anything different.

 

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/11/12/Geoff-Meggs-Labour-Vote/

NorthReport

 

Vision's Angry Voter Double Whammy

As COPE and Greens tap populist ire, one winner could be NPA, a party flush with cash from its rail baron president.

 

http://thetyee.ca/News/2014/11/10/Vision-Vancouver-Votes/

terrytowel

Gregor Robertson pleads for strategic voting

He is asking voters supporting COPE candidates to switch to Vision to keep the Non-Partisan Association out – prompting boos from COPE campaigners and a scornful response from mayoral candidate Meena Wong.

She said the apology was six years too late and issued her own appeal: “I’m asking Vision voters, come home to COPE, vote your conscience.”

NPA candidate Kirk LaPointe also said later that the mayor’s apology is “a form of repentance that’s too late – I don’t think the community will buy it. He was obviously put up to it by some strategist in the background.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/robertson-makes-pub...

It worked for Kathleen Wynne, it worked for John Tory. Why not three in a row for Gregor Robertson?

NorthReport

The Straight Slate for the 2014 municipal election: suggestions for your vote

Some recommendations for Lower Mainlanders lacking wards and proportional representation on election day.

http://www.straight.com/news/769716/straight-slate-2014-municipal-electi...

Stockholm

Wynne won because a lot of people who voted PC in 2011 were turned off Hudak - she didn't actually gain any votes from the NDP since NDP support went UP from 2011 to 2014 across the province.

If Robertson wants to win using Kathleen Wynne's strategy - he just needs Kirk LaPointe to promise to fire 100,000 people so that there are mass defections away from the NPA from people who traditionally vote for them.

Stockholm

The Globe and Mail endorses Gregor Robertson. They argue that Robertson/Vision and LaPointe/NPA are essentially identical on policy - therefore why not stick with the devil you know...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/vote-gregor-in-va...

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Stockholm wrote:
One thing to consider in Vancouver is Gregor Robertson has denounced the expansion of the Kinder-Morgan pipeline while LaPointe is in favour of more tanker traffic etc... if LaPointe wins it will be interpreted as meaning that people in vancouver are in favour of more pipelines and more tanker traffic and it will encourage the BC and federal governments to follow through with Kinder-Morgan and probably Northern gateway as well.

Northern Gateway is most likely dead regardless of how Vancouver votes. The number of first nations lawsuits against the project is probably enough to ensure it never gets built.

As for the Kinder-Morgan pipeline, well, news flash, but the pipeline route doesn't actually go through Vancouver. The terminus of the both the existing and proposed new pipeline is in Burnaby. And as a resident of Burnaby, I'll be proudly voting for Derrick Corrigan, whose Burnaby Citizens Association government is fighting to keep Kinder Morgan out of their actual park on Burnaby Mountain.

As for Vancouver, I'm more concerned about the astronomically high housing prices and the rampant gentrification, a situation which Gregor Robertson and the Vision dominated council has exacerbated, along with the NPA councillors, through their votes in council. So if I lived in Vancouver I'd vote for Meena Wong, who is actually promising to do something about the situation.

As far as I'm concerned, Kinder-Morgan is a red herring in the Vancouver municipal election. What matters is breaking the power of the developers at city hall, of not giving Vision a free pass. looks like defeating the developers can't be done this time around, but defeating the strategic voting canard can be. If Meena Wong gets enough votes to defeat the strategic voting canard, I'd consider that progress, even if it puts Kirk Lapointe in the mayors chair.

Stockholm

Wouldn't perhaps have made more sense for COPE to have concentrated on electing a couple of city councillors rather than running a no-hope mayoral candidate and then hope that with a very divided city council they might have a "balance of power"?

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..the impact of kinder morgan getting it's way via the pipelines is very important to vancouver. just as important to the surrounding coastlines as well.

The Cost of an Oil Spill in Burrard Inlet: $40 Billion…For Starters

http://commonsensecanadian.ca/cost-of-oil-spill-burrard-inlet-40-billion...

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Stockholm wrote:
Wouldn't perhaps have made more sense for COPE to have concentrated on electing a couple of city councillors rather than running a no-hope mayoral candidate and then hope that with a very divided city council they might have a "balance of power"?

In 2011 COPE ran in an "electoral alliance" with Vision -- the idea was that since Vision had all the money, COPE should try to form alliance with Vision and govern together. So they did not oppose Gregor for mayor and ran three council candidates with Vision's 7. Gregor and all seven Vision candidates were elected and no COPE. So the alliance was seen rightly as a strategic failure.

In the wake of that failure, the folks who opposed the alliance with Vision took full control of the party and part of that process included a vote that required COPE to run a mayoral candidate and a majority slate for council. David Chudnovsky (former NDP MLA, former COPE executive now with OneCity) argued that the number of candidates you run is strategic. He was correct, I think, but that vote was more about confirming the new direction of COPE rather than actually about this election.  That was in early 2013.

So this year COPE was actually a bit hamstrung. They had to run at least 6 candidates. Some wanted ten, some wanted 6, some wanted in between. It was virtually impossible to come to a consensus so the recommendation was 8, the same number as Vision. That's what the members accepted. There was some discussion that seven would have been better, because then they could have run a slate with the Greens, but it was always dicey once you were forced to run that many candidates.

I think, ironically, that Meena Wong's bid for mayor has ended up helping OneCity and the Greens (if they end up getting elected). Because she has done an immense job in challenging Gregor from the left, but there hasn't been a coordinated campaign for COPE council candidates to take advantage of it -- leaving OneCity's RJ Aquino, in particular, to benefit from that. He's actually run a really smart campaign (although fortunate to secure union money and the VDLC endorsement because of Chudnovsky's influence).

The sad thing is that if RJ wins and COPE is left out again (possible, although most likely is that both will lose), that will only exacerbate the fissures in place.

Centrist

One think to note about BC muni elections is that they have the lowest voter turnouts in the country. Have even nudged family and friends to vote this year and basically all I get is that they are not interested. An apathetic lot.

And when I say BC muni election have low voter turnouts, to wit in 2011, for example:

Van City: 34% (always the highest in BC IIRC)

Surrey: 25%

Burnaby: 23%

One of the constraints that can make muni predictions quite difficult to predict unlike provincial or federal ridings in BC. Depends on the GOTV campaigns of various parties, etc.

OTOH, BC will never/rarely see voter turnouts of recent muni votes from aross Canada.

Toronto: 60%

Winnipeg: 50%

In that vein, advance voting has now closed in BC with my eye on both Van City and Surrey. Both have very competitive campaigns going on unlike 2011.

Van City advance voter turnout (over 2011): +98% (caveat Van City added 4 more days over 2011 plus 3 new votong stations)

Surrey advance voter turnout: (over 2011): +84%

Does this advance voter turnout indicate overall higher turnout compared to 2011? Perhaps. Perhaps not. If it does, in Van City's case, suspect that it may benefit the NPA in terms of a change election. OTOH, I may be wrong on this score.  

Adam T

 

"Van City: 34% (always the highest in BC IIRC)"

 

Pretty sure no. Some small towns in B.C have turnout of 70/80%

When the polls close at 8 p.m. Saturday, please join us online at vancouversun.com for real-time results from all B.C. municipalities. Vote totals will be updated every few minutes right up until the final ballots are counted for councils, school boards and – in the case of Vancouver – park board.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Here's an excellent article from COPE candidates Meena Wong and Audrey Siegl on colonialism and reconciliation at city hall. Goes way beyond the usual partisan talking points.

[url=https://ricochet.media/en/193/we-refuse-to-accept-vancouvers-status-quo]We refuse to accept Vancouver’s status quo[/url]

Quote:

As activists in our communities, and as women of Musqueam and Chinese descent, reconciliation is a question close to our hearts. This year we are running for City Hall with COPE. What our communities share is a history of exclusion and racism in Vancouver, including decades of exclusion from the democratic system itself.

Not long ago in British Columbia, we were not allowed to vote. The only reason we are able to run for office today is because of the decades of struggles of our people for justice. We are thankful and empowered by these struggles, and we want to continue the fight for justice and reconciliation initiated by our ancestors.

What makes COPE a strong social justice movement is that it recognizes that British Columbia was created through organized dispossession and colonial violence. As with all levels of government, the municipal government has played a central role in perpetuating settler colonialism and the oppression of Indigenous people — a process that continues to this day.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Adam T wrote:

 

 

When the polls close at 8 p.m. Saturday, please join us online at vancouversun.com for real-time results from all B.C. municipalities. Vote totals will be updated every few minutes right up until the final ballots are counted for councils, school boards and – in the case of Vancouver – park board.

Uh..."join US"?  Are you an employee of the Sun, Adam?

Adam T

Ken Burch wrote:

Adam T wrote:

 

 

When the polls close at 8 p.m. Saturday, please join us online at vancouversun.com for real-time results from all B.C. municipalities. Vote totals will be updated every few minutes right up until the final ballots are counted for councils, school boards and – in the case of Vancouver – park board.

uh..."join US"?  Are you an employee of the Sun, Adam?

It was an email sent to me.

NorthReport

Here's why the Coalition of Progressive Electors faces an uphill struggle

http://www.straight.com/news/771056/heres-why-coalition-progressive-elec...

NorthReport

If the NPA and Kirk LaPointe get slaughtered in tomorrow's election, here are six reasons why

NPA mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe has not convinced voters that he would focus much attention on affordable housing and homelessness.

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The NPA is perceived by many voters to be a front group for the city's business establishment, many of whom support pipeline proposals and the B.C. Liberal government in Victoria. The B.C. Liberals were slaughtered in Vancouver in the last provincial election. Increasingly, this is becoming an NDP city. If directors of the Fraser Institute are backing your party, it's not going to win a lot of support.

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The anti–Vision Vancouver vote is fragmented all over the political landscape. It will go to the Cedar Party, the NPA, the Greens, COPE, and Vancouver First.

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The NPA has done a fairly woeful job over the past three years of gathering support across the spectrum. Cobbling together a slate a few months before the election probably isn't sufficient to attract huge numbers of votes from the LGBT, South Asian, Chinese, and Filipino communities. This could prove decisive on election day.

http://www.straight.com/news/770931/if-npa-and-kirk-lapointe-get-slaught...

NorthReport

If Vision Vancouver and Mayor Gregor Robertson suffer losses, here are 10 reasons why

5. Robertson's hangers-on include a bunch of B.C. Liberal and federal Liberal supporters. There's not a lot of ideological difference between some of Robertson's advisers and marketing experts and the NPA caucus. As a result, some progressive voters feel there's no risk in punishing Vision for its sins.

4. Vision Vancouver has insensitively lifted quotes out of context from people in the media. It's symptomatic of the party's arrogance and created another story in the final days of the campaign reinforcing the NPA's meme that Vision can't be trusted.

3. City manager Penny Ballem's communications clampdown has reinforced Vision Vancouver's reputation as a party that wants to control the message to an absurd degree. Nobody really knows how much of this is driven by Ballem and how much of this is coming from the mayor's chief of staff, Mike Magee. There are some voters who would be delighted if both of them were sent packing after the election.

2. A defamation suit filed by Coun. Geoff Meggs and Robertson against LaPointe has some genuine legal issues, but the optics were bad. LaPointe claimed he was being bullied, generating a blast of media coverage close to voting day.

1. NPA fundraising has exceeded expectations, enabling the main opposition party to plaster mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe's face everywhere. It helped overcome his biggest weakness going into the campaign, which was a lack of name recognition. NPA television ads have been very effective, poking fun at the Vision brand. Often, creative folks in advertising agencies win elections for their clients, but no one wants to admit that—not even the voters, who refuse to acknowledge that they're swayed by marketing. But marketing plays a crucial role in elections. In 2011, Vision Vancouver won that competition hands down as the NPA complained about wheat fields and back-yard chickens. This year, the governing party faces a much tougher fight.


http://www.straight.com/news/770816/if-vision-vancouver-and-mayor-gregor...

NorthReport

Why Vision Deserves Vote of Progressives in Vancouver

Undecided? Support party's moves against homelessness, renovictions, oil spills, says a backer.

 

 

http://www.thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/11/13/Vision-Deserves-Progressive-Vote/

NorthReport

Kirk LaPointe, Cipher Candidate

A journalist who never tipped his hand. A political unknown 'cautious' on policy. Who is this NPA leader?

 

http://www.thetyee.ca/News/2014/11/13/Kirk-LaPointe-Profile/

NorthReport

The big day has arrived in BC - today is municipal voting day across the province.

I have already voted.

What time do the polls close?

Any predictions anyone?

I always appreciate those who have the courage to post their forecasts, regardless of whether they are right or wrong. It seems a lot healthier than not posting your own predictions and then sitting back and taking pot shots at others.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Turns out that Vision Vancouver's position on Chinatown is actually to the right of the NPA.

[url=http://melissafong.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/gregor-robertson-vision-vanc... Robertson & Vision Vancouver publicly rejects rezoning moratorium in Chinatown, twice; LaPointe and Meena Wong say they support moratorium until revitalization plan properly assessed[/url]

Quote:
Mayor Robertson, at a Vision Press conference, said he would not support a moratorium on the rezoning of 105 Keefer street.  NPA Mayoral Candidate Kirk LaPointe and COPE Mayoral Candidate Meena Wong have publicly stated they would support a moratorium on rezoning applications in Chinatown until the community can figure out what to do.

wage zombie

I'll make a prediction:

Gregor Robertson - 49%

Kirk LaPointe - 43%

Meena Wong - 8%

ghoris

Sounds about right.

Adam T

They're keeping one polling station open until at least 8;45 and they won't start the count until it's closed.

ghoris

Extended voting until 8:15 at Killarney (+ NPA), 8:30 at Britannia (+ Vision) and Oakridge (+ NPA), 8:45 at Hastings (+ Vision).

Adam T

Looks like  Linda Hepner is going to win in a landslide in Surrey.

Adam T

Jonathan Cote beats incumbent Wayne Wright in New Westminster.

Adam T

Apparently former NDP provincial candidate and Liberal federal candidte Gary (or Garry?) Litke retired after being mayor of Pentiction for just one year.

Adam T

Derek Corrigan reelected in Burnaby with around 70% of the vote.  All BCA city councillors also easily reelected.

ghoris

Surprised at the one-sidedness of the Surrey result. Everyone was talking about a close 3-way race but Hepner is running away with it.

No surprises in Burnaby.

Cote winning in New West is not a huge surprise to me either. Interestingly, even though he represents the 'new' New West (which I characterize as a degree of gentrification led by young families and professionals who can't afford Vancouver) vs. the 'old' more blue-collar, industrial New West, he got the New Westminster & District Labour Council endorsement and NWDLC-endorsed candidates will likely dominate council.

Adam T

Lisa Helps leads NDP associated mayor Dean Fortin by 90 votes with one poll left.  Former Liberal MLA and Oak Bay? mayor Ida Chong got crushed.

Adam T

Richard Atwell leads longtime mayor and former Provincial Liberal candidate (and Barack Obama supporter) Frank Leonard in Saanich.

Adam T

Vancouver election results:

http://vancouver.ca/election/results.aspx

ROBERTSON, GregorVision Vancouver 5740

LAPOINTE, KirkNPA 5038

WONG, MeenaCOPE 1161

CARR, AdrianeGreen5388

AFFLECK, GeorgeNPA4759

BALL, ElizabethNPA4670

JANG, KerryVision Vancouver4440

LOUIE, RaymondVision Vancouver4393

REIMER, AndreaVision Vancouver4344

DEAL, HeatherVision Vancouver4341

DE GENOVA, MelissaNPA4315

MEGGS, GeoffVision Vancouver4040

STEVENSON, TimVision Vancouver3840

 

NorthReport

Gregor leading

Adam T

2001 provincial NDP candidate and 2009 provincial Liberal candidate Robert Hutchins reelected to council in Ladysmith.

Adam T

Former NDP MLA Bill Goodacre reelected to council in Smithers.

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