2010 NB Election Results Threat
September 27, 2010 - 7:51pm
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If we are into the post-mortem here are the big three that probably killed the Liberals
1) Proposed elimination of early French Immersion. Parents went to court to force the Government to consult and reconsider the decision. Result: Early French immersion entry point now grade 3 rather than grade 1. Then Education Minister Kelly Lamrock whipped last night.
2) Post-secondary education report suggests turning UNB Saint John, St. Louis Maillet and U de M Shippigan into polytechnics. Large outcry including large demonstrations in Saint John. Result: Government backs away from report. Then PSE Minister Ed Doherty loses his seat in a close three way race by 9 votes (Recount to come). Sussex to St. Stephen goes Tory Blue.
3) Proposal to sell NB Power assets to Hydro Quebec. Massive opposition in the province. Result: Birth of the People's Alliance and almost 50% of the popular vote goes to the PCs.
As per usual elcetions are lost more than they are won. This election was about the past 4 years and NBers decided Shawn Graham did not deserve another mandate. Given the nature of NB politis Davis Alward became premier by default.
The breaking of election promises should be starting sometime next week.
I hope some are broken. Like the no tax pledge. If they dont break that one well lose services. So end march madness, up gst by 2 points, go forward on local administration reform (Jean Guy Finn report), regionalize nursing home administrations... And that way you can maintain health, education and other social services.
One thing that bowled me over in the election campaign was how the NDP was the only party that made very few promises and drew attention to the mammoth deficit in New Brunswick, while the Liberals and Tories were promising like drunken sailors as if this was some election campaign in 1972 with a bidding war on who could promise to pave the most roads YET, pundits would dismiss the NDP by saying "they can say what they want since they know they won't win the election". That seems very contradictory - to dismiss the party with the most prudent platform that promises the least by saying "oh they can say what they want". usually, that is the way you dismiss parties promising billions of dollars worth of new programs with no way of paying for them.
I think Roger Duguay should be proud of achieving the NDP's highest popular vote in 20 years, more than double the last election. On the other hand, at the end of the day he still doesn't have a seat. I have no idea whether the NBNDP even has the resources to pay him a leaders' salary. So does he stick around for the next four years, or move on?
Stock they should have said 'Oh they can make the least promises they want because they wont win the election' lol...
I think Roger Duguay should be proud of achieving the NDP's highest popular vote in 20 years, more than double the last election. On the other hand, at the end of the day he still doesn't have a seat. I have no idea whether the NBNDP even has the resources to pay him a leaders' salary. So does he stick around for the next four years, or move on?
I thought we gained some kind of public funding for having achieved over 10% of the vote. Ill have to check on that... If not I doubt he'll be able to play NDP leader fulltime even if he stays on.
I don't know if being over 10% means anything, but parties do get some form of public funding in NB like at the federal level so since the NDP got 39,000 votes or so, they will get over $60,000/year. Not a lot, but better than nothing.
Susan Levi-Peters, the NDP candidate in Kent riding, a former chief of the Elsipogtog First Nation, just picked up a lot in a recount. She now has 15.3% of the vote, the best in the whole Moncton + southeast New Brunswick region.
This will help her win the by-election after Shawn Graham resigns his seat, right?
I think that getting up to 15.3% also makes her rebate eligible!
Maybe something has changed- Caissa on this maybe?
But up until 10 years or so agao, only the parties get [per vote] public financing in NB. No candidate rebates.
And at least up until recently there was no salary for the Leader.
Saint John Harbour Liberal Ed Doherty isn't disclosing whether he will ask for an official recount after losing the riding by a mere nine votes.
The official numbers will not be validated until Friday and then he'll have four days to launch a recount.
Progressive Conservative Carl Killen was elected in the tight three-way race in the Sept. 27 election.
David Alward's Tories won 42 of New Brunswick's 55 seats.
But a voter in a suburban Saint John riding is questioning the validity of the results in Saint John Harbour, and the final tallies in other ridings, based on his experience at the polls.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/09/29/nb-saint-john-harbour-election-rules-521.html#ixzz10vWZk1bN
What would the New Brunswick legislature look like under a fair voting system?
A New Brunswick proportional legislature.
On the votes as cast in 2010 for 55 MLAs, the overall result is 28 Progressive Conservatives, 18 Liberals, 6 New Democrats, and 3 Greens.
Bernard Lord appointed the Commission on Legislative Democracy. He said he supported proportional representation, and if he had been re-elected in 2006 he would hold a referendum on the new system, with 50% of voters required to pass it, not the 60% threshold used in BC and Ontario. Ironically, although Lord's PCs got more votes than the Liberals in 2006, it was a "wrong-winner" election, and Lord was out of office.
Unlike the Ontario model with province-wide lists, the New Brunswick model had four regions. Each region would have nine local MLAs, elected as today, and five regional MLAs.
Was the typo in the thread title a touch Freudian?
Most models of PR have a 5% threshold to be entitled to any representation - so i don't know if the NB Greens would have gotten anywhere
One thing puzzles me: why NB's provincial NDP remains so resolutely stillborn as a seat-winner, while its federal counterpart is overachieving even in non-Yvon Godin constituencies--they were over 15% in every NB seat in '08...
I think there is a simple reason for that. The federal NDP is a much more powerful well-funded party at the national level than is the NB NDP. In the last few federal elections you had a national NDP campaign spending over $10 million and you had Layton as a very popular respected national leader. A rising tide raises all ships. In NB provincially you have a provincial NDP that was essentially dead up until a year ago - less than 500 members no money whasoever in the bank, no organization and zero media profile. In this past provincial election, the Liberals and Tories spent about a million dollars each - the NDP spent about $10,000!!! It was a miracle that they even managed to double their vote and come close in a few seats considering how heavily outgunned they were.
I do realize that. But I was explicitly using the Commission on Legislative Democracy's model. They didn't have a province-wide threshold. They just relied on the natural threshold inherent in 14-MLA regions.
The Greens got only 1.6% in the North region, partly because they ran in only 10 of the 14 ridings. They got 6.8% in South East, 5.2% in Central, and 4.5% in South West. The highest-remainder math just barely gave them a seat in South West. They had three presentable candidates who each got over 10%:
Jim Wolstenholme had been CEO of the Miramichi Health Authority, previously assistant deputy minister of health in New Brunswick and then in Saskatchewan, and executive director for the McKelvey-Levesque Commission in New Brunswick set up by Frank McKenna to examine the future of health care in New Brunswick, as well as CEO of two regional health authorities in Newfoundland and Labrador. He got 11.9% in Fredericton-Silverwood.
Bethany Thorne-Dykstra is a teacher, dairy farmer and anti-poverty activist who was a LIberal candidate in the 2003 provincial election. She founded Voice of Real Poverty Inc. to advocate on behalf of low income New Brunswickers, and Put N.B. People First to advocate for a referendum on the sale of N.B. Power. She made headlines when she joined the Greens at the end of June this year. She got 11.4% in Petitcodiac near Moncton.
Margaret Tusz-King is a Municipal Councilor in the Town of Sackville (home of Mount Allison University), and Program Director of Tatamagouche Centre (an education, conference, and retreat centre of the United Church of Canada), and has been a pharmacist (community, hospital and research) and a government consultant. She got 13.5% in Tantramar.
They had one other candidate with great credentials on paper, Paul LeBreton, former deputy minister of health and wellness, deputy attorney general and deputy minister of justice. But he got only 6.9%, typical for the Moncton region, so he must not have impressed.
The new cabinet is made up of:
David Alward: Premier, Intergovernmental Affairs and Aboriginal Affairs
Marie-Claude Blais: Attorney General and Justice
Robert Trevors: Public Safety
Blaine Higgs: Finance and Office of Human resources
Claude Williams: Transportation and Supply and Services
Bruce Northrup: Natural Resources
Craig Leonard: Energy
Mike Olscamp: Agriculture, Aquaculture and Fisheries
Madeleine Dubé: Health
Trevor Holder: Tourism and Parks and Wellness, Culture and Sport
Susan Stultz: Social Development
Martine Coulombe: Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour
Jody Carr: Education
Margaret-Ann Blaney: Environment
Bruce Fitch: Local Government
Paul Robichaud: Deputy premier, Economic Development, Regional Development Corp., Business New Brunswick and Invest NB
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/10/12/nb-alward-names-cabinet-132.html#ixzz12AOw6dnX
New Brunswick Premier David Alward appointed Tory faithful to key deputy minister posts Thursday, reversing a vow to change the way in which appointments are made by the provincial government.
The appointments include Daniel Allain to the key position of president and chief executive officer of NB Liquor. Dana Clendenning, the Liberal-appointed president of the Crown corporation, left his position last week with a taxpayer-funded severance package.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/10/14/nb-david-alward-appointments-511.html#ixzz12RAg9Yky
And add to that the threat to sell NB Liquor which brings in 150 million in profits a year. If they sell it for less than 6 billion taxpayers will be scammed. The average stock to dividend ration is 40-1. Must be a religious thing that tories dont want gov selling alcohol. What next, the lottery? Hey lets get rid of anything that makes money for moral reasons but NOT abolish it. Sounds to me like just plain hypocrisy and an excuse to grease up some buddies in business.
Was the typo in the thread title a touch Freudian?
- haha just what I was thinking .... you beat me to it!!
The New Brunswick government is ordering a structural safety review of all schools built before 1980, Education Minister Jody Carr announced on Monday.
The review will include roughly 200 schools across the province.
Carr's announcement comes after the recent closure of Moncton High School and École Polyvalente Roland-Pépin in Campbellton. He said he wants the review completed as soon as possible.
The recently appointed education minister said many parents have been left worried by those closures.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/10/18/nb-campbellton-s...New Brunswick NDP Leader Roger Duguay is resigning as party leader after failing to win a seat in the Sept. 27 election.
Under Duguay's leadership, the New Democratic Party won more than 10 per cent of the vote, more than double the party's showing in the 2006 election.
But Duguay was unable to win personally in the northeastern riding of Tracadie-Sheila. The NDP leader spent nearly the entire 32-day election period campaigning in the riding but still only placed second to Conservative Claude Landry, who held the seat in the last legislature.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/10/25/nb-ndp-roguer-duguay-resigns-927.html#ixzz13Ney8j5z
The local CBC news has just announced that Roger Duguay is leaving the NDP. He is displeased with how veteran party members were treated by outsiders such as dominique Cardy. Cardy does not deny that some veterans were pushed aside because they resisted change. The story of the "voice of the middle class" seems to be emerging.
Former New Brunswick NDP leader Roger Duguay says he is leaving the party altogether because of the way party veterans feuded with "outsiders" who worked on the fall election campaign.
Duguay, who resigned as party leader last week, told Radio-Canada he had difficulty with the feuding between some party veterans and others he called - in French - "the famous team of outsiders."
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/11/02/nb-duguay-leaving-ndp.html#ixzz14E9Mum3T
The first posting implies that Duguay didn't like how one side treated the other in this so-called internal feud. The second story, implies that he just didn't like the conflict and says nothing about whether he sides with anyone. What's the truth?
The radio story made it very clear that it was the former. I'm not sure what the French for "famous team of outsiders" was but its clear it was not meant to be a compliment.
ETA; Babelfish suggests l'équipe célèbre d'étrangers
The English translation of a French expression may make it sound pejorative in a way that it may not be in French. From what I've heard, had it not been for a few New Brunswickers coming home to rebuild the NDP and volunteer for the campaign - there would have been about 5 candidates running and no central campaign of any kind!
Every story has two sides. I think Roger's is pretty clear through his resignation as party leader and from the party. I think the NB NDP is moving to the right; some people think that is a good thing.
I guess nobody wanted to hire Shawn. 8^)
Former New Brunswick premier Shawn Graham will quit as Liberal leader but continue to represent his Kent riding, he told a news conference Tuesday.
Graham's decision to step down as party leader was not a surprise. He told supporters after the party lost the Sept. 27 election to the Progressive Conservatives that he would not fight another provincial campaign. The Liberals won only 13 of 55 seats.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/11/09/nb-shawn-graham-future-500.html#ixzz14oRbzVNB
Jesus, what a gong show.
Victor Boudreau has been named the interim Liberal leader, replacing former New Brunswick premier Shawn Graham.
His first priority is to form a strong opposition when the legislature returns later in November, the Shediac-Cap-Pelé Liberal MLA said in a news release on Wednesday.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/11/10/nb-liberal-leader-victor-boudreau-911.html#ixzz14u0qLJla
Has Yvon Godin commented on Roger Duguay's decision to leave the party? I understood Godin to have been a strong supporter of Duguay. Or will Godin be following suit?
Duguay is quitting politics altogether after having been defeated in his fourth attempt to win a seat. Godin is the NDP whip and has a seat in parliament for as long as he wants it - I suspect he's probably disappointed that Duguay didn't do better, but has far bigger fish to fry in Ottawa.
New Brunswick Progressive Conservatives are enjoying a post-election honeymoon of support, according to a Corporate Research Associates poll.
Premier David Alward's Tories opened up a wide lead with New Brunswick voters, according to the latest Corporate Research Associates poll. (CBC)The quarterly political poll shows 61 per cent of decided voters support the Tories, followed by 25 per cent for the Liberals and 10 per cent for the New Democratic Party
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/12/06/nb-cra-poll-tories-gain-support-214.html#ixzz17R9M4XCo
New Brunswick's Progressive Conservative government is asking some civil servants to take voluntary unpaid leave over the period between Christmas and New Year's.
Finance Minister Blaine Higgs told reporters Wednesday that government workers who are employed in non-essential services have been asked if they would take the leave.
It's the latest in a series of austerity measures ushered in by the Tory government to cut the province's $820-million deficit. Higgs has already instructed departments to trim one per cent from their budgets this year and prepare for a two per cent reduction next year.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/12/08/nb-higgs-civil-servants-unpaid-vacations-1227.html#ixzz17Y4AnnyJ
The Progressive Conservative government has slashed its capital budget significantly as it attempts to contain its burgeoning deficit.
Finance Minister Blaine Higgs unveiled a trimmed down $592.9-million capital budget on Tuesday, down from the $940.4 million spent by the former Liberal government in 2010-11.
Higgs had already warned government departments that budget cuts were looming as he tries to wrestle down the deficit, which he said could reach $1 billion next year.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2010/12/14/nb-capital-budget-1245.html#ixzz1878T1wtU
New Brunswick's Liberals still have not decided if they will elect a new leader in 2011, but one name has already surfaced as a potential candidate.
The Liberals were left without a permanent leader when former premier Shawn Graham resigned following the Sept. 27 electoral drubbing.
While a date has not been set to select a new leader, there is growing speculation over who will be in that contest.
Former cabinet minister Mike Murphy is among the crop of potential contenders.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/01/04/nb-murphy-liberal-leadership-620.html#ixzz1A4d3FyTj
Irony??
The organizer of a private campaign to convince New Brunswick politicians to take the deficit seriously has left behind an unpaid bill, says a Saint John businessman.
John Ainsworth has launched a small claims court action alleging he wasn't paid for printing services he supplied to the deficit campaign.
The campaign that took place last fall during the provincial election was organized by Rothesay businessman David Bishop.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/01/05/nb-deficit-campaign-bill.html#ixzz1AGCj4e8M
En Nouveau-Brunswick, plus ca change, plus ca meme chose.
Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward's pick to lead his government's new automobile insurance committee is overshadowing the delayed review.
Michel Leger, a Shediac lawyer and a long-time Tory, was appointed on Tuesday as the chairperson of the eight-person working group that will examine the $2,500 cap on court awards for soft-tissue automobile injuries and the definition of those injuries.
Leger, who has been a key figure in recent election campaigns, dropped out of the party's leadership race in 1995 because of his connection to a case of insurance fraud.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/01/12/nb-michel-leger-insurance-523.html#ixzz1ApQ1dTyc
Premier David Alward is defending his government's controversial choice of Michel Leger to lead a provincial auto insurance review committee.
Leger worked on the Tory campaigns in several recent elections and was hired by the former Bernard Lord government to lead a review of the province's health system
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/01/13/nb-alward-michel-leger-547.html#ixzz1AvI1P5Sj
Lying dogs!!!
Premier David Alward is opening the door to raising the Harmonized Sales Tax as a way to cope with the massive deficit his Progressive Conservative government inherited.
The Tory government has estimated the deficit could hit $820 million in 2010-11 and it has warned the deficit could top $1 billion in the upcoming budget if urgent action isn't taken in this year's budget.
Alward has remained steadfast against raising the HST for months, even promising in the fall election campaign that he would not hike the consumption tax.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/01/20/nb-alward-hst-promise-922.html#ixzz1Bb2qnFXF
Former Liberal cabinet minister Kelly Lamrock is questioning some of the decisions made by the Shawn Graham government, a move that is jump-starting the debate within the party ahead of its upcoming leadership race.
Lamrock, who was defeated in the September election, said he believes it is a mistake to cut taxes for wealthy New Brunswickers during times of fiscal restraint.
Instead, Lamrock said the better choice is to raise taxes on those who can afford it.
But Lamrock was a senior minister in Shawn Graham's Liberal government that aggressively cut taxes, contributing to the big deficit.
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/02/17/nb-lamrock-liberal-renewal-555.html#ixzz1EDaejglM
The Department of Finance is being pressured to cut spending and increase taxes to eliminate the province's $820-million deficit, according to results of a questionnaire released on Thursday.
Almost 3,000 New Brunswickers responded to a questionnaire sent out by the provincial government that asked for feedback on how they felt Premier David Alward's government should balance the budget.
The results show 46.2 per cent of respondents want the Alward government to cut government spending and increase specific taxes.
Spending restraint was backed by 42.9 per cent, while 10.8 per cent favoured simply boosting taxes, fees and other revenue.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/03/04/nb-finance-budget-survey-1045.html
The David Alward government is continuing to enjoy a high degree of public support as it heads into a tough budget that could result in cuts to a wide number of programs, according to the latest Corporate Research Associates poll.
The CRA quarterly poll show 62 per cent of respondents were either completely or mostly satisfied with the Alward government, up from 46 per cent in November.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/03/07/nb-cra-poll...
N.B. budget about to be tabled in the Legislature.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/03/21/nb-higgs-budget-1026.html
-tax increases on gasoline and diesel
-increased tax on cigarettes $10.50 per carton
-instruct NB liquor to make more money.
-tuition allowed to go up $200 per student per year.
-parents' income will now be counted again in NBSL calculations.
$220 million in spending cuts.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/03/22/nb-budget-m...
Increased taxes on those earning over $127 000 effective July 1, 2011. Approximately 11 000 NBers.
New Brunswick's New Democrats responded to the 2011 provincial budget with praise for the governments' implementation of NDP cost-reduction initiatives, but expressed real concern over the continuation of ineffective handouts to businesses.
The New Democrats' provincial leader, Mr. Dominic Cardy, commended the government for addressing the provincial deficit, acting on several initiatives called for by the New Democrats, including an increase in tobacco taxes, closing the Capital Commission, reviewing the government's vehicle policy and ending unbudgeted end-of-year government spending, so-called "March Madness".
http://www.nbndp.ca/node/476"During the 2010 election campaign, the NDP provided New Brunswick with an accurate and honest picture of the fiscal challenges we face as a province. I am pleased to see that many of our ideas have been adopted in this budget." Cardy said. "However, this Conservative budget is the political equivalent of a no-fly zone: it's a first step, but it's not going to get the job done."
While optimistic about some aspects of the budget, Cardy took aim at the Tories for their cutting of funding for the Advisory Council on the Status of Women. "This is a worrying indicator of this government's future direction," he said.
The Opposition Liberals have launched a blistering attack on Premier David Alward's first budget over what they call a significant broken election promise.
The Progressive Conservative government is being criticized by several groups hurt by Tuesday's budget.
Women's groups have protested the plan to fold the arm's-length Advisory Council on the Status of Women into government. Film producers have said the cancellation of a tax credit will kill the province's industry.
Liberal Donald Arseneault reminded Alward of the Tory election pledge to hold the line on taxes that impact ordinary New Brunswickers.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/03/25/nb-higgs-ar...One of New Brunswick's leading film and television producers is pulling up stakes and moving to Nova Scotia after losing an industry tax credit in the latest provincial budget.
Frank Savoie, who runs Connections Productions in Moncton, said the elimination of the credit is jeopardizing the future of New Brunswick's multi-million-dollar industry.
"One line in a 40-page budget," Savoie said Monday. "No preamble - film tax credit cut. A, a slap in the face. B, we're going to Halifax."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/03/28/nb-savoie-tax-credit.html
Interim Liberal leader Victor Boudreau said when the Alward government cut funding to the Advisory Council on the Status of Women, it broke the law.
The opposition critic on women's issues said the government was silencing the province's only independent critic on women's issues.
Boudreau said it all comes down to an act from 1975.
"If you go look at article 9.2 it says very clearly that the minister must provide funding to this organization."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/04/01/nb-womens-c...
Seriously. The NB election was months ago. Most of these last 30 posts or so could have been new threads in their own right. And if people had thought the new messages were about something besides long stale election results, they might have resulted in the odd, I don`t know, conversation.
Cutting the advisory council on women was a disturbing move. Any idea what the "justification" was? I think I saw a CBC report that suggested it was settling old scores from a period of acrimony during one of the Lord governments. Anybody know anything more substantial?
Malcolm, I'm trying to avoid thread proliferation. NB topics don't get much traction. Maybe a mod can change the thread title to reflect it is general NB political topics.
Anonymouse, I only know the PC line that it had a choice of cutting this or front-line workers working with women who have been abused.
Start a new thread in which to occassionaly post. Give it a general name- something obvious like Current New Brunswick Politics.
This one will just drop out of sight, so it's not thread proliferation.
I agree that thread proliferation (ie, multiple current threads on overlapping or even identical topics) is unhelpful. But the NB election results discussion was over six months ago (last on topic post Oct 1). Of the posts since then, there was enough diversity of subject matter for between two and four threads (one of which - NBNDP Leadership Race - eventually did migrate to a discrete thread).
The fact that NB is smaller than Ontario hardly justifies the suggestion that all NB politics discussions be gathered under one meandering thread. It's not like three shorter threads are going to everwhelm the board or the moderators.