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Atlantic Canada Polls - started June 8, 2012

NorthReport
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NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

More good news for the NDP - this time in N & L

 

PCs - 49%, down 5%

NDP - 33%, up 5%, and all at the expense of the PCs.

Libs - 18%, flatlined

NDP eclipsing Liberals for 2nd position, says pollster New Democrats say poll results show party on right track

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2012/06/07/nl-...


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

And the good news just keeps on coming

Voter support for Dexter, NDP government dropping: CRA poll

 

Corporate Research CEO Don Mills said the numbers seem to suggest the NDP and Dexter have paid a price for power rate increases, though the government doesn't control those, and cuts to the education budget.

"At some point, dissatisfaction leads to less voter support, and I think we've certainly seen a fairly significant drop in voter support for the NDP in the last quarter for sure," Mills said.

Also Thursday, a national Angus Reid online poll found Dexter had the lowest approval rating among Canadian premiers at 27 per cent. Brad Wall of Saskatchewan topped the list at 67 per cent.

Canseco said one factor working against Dexter is having to contend with two relatively strong opposition parties, while most other provinces only have one.

"That certainly plays a role," Canseco said. "That being said, his numbers are down 12 points in six months, which is definitely not good."

 

I dont know about the two relatively strong opposition parties. Yes, there are two parties that are neither dead nor close to death. But Its not like Ontario.


 


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

Darrell Dexter is in the middle of pulling a Bob Rae: alienating his base and losing favour with the centre.

At least unlike Bob Rae, Dexter will not have a record of fiscal disaster to contend with.

Team Darrell Dexter, if you are reading this, I have a Texan saying for you: "you gotta dance with them what brung you"

Don't alienate your base. Don't jettison your core supporters. If you don't have a base, you will get knocked over by the slightest breeze.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Yet the NDP are still polling in 1st place in NS

---------------------------------------------------

And here is more good news for the NDP, this time in PEI.

 

Party / Jun '12 / Feb '12 / GE '11 / Change

Libs / 47% / 50% / 51% / Down 4%

PCs / 26% / 33% / 40% / Down 14%

NDP / 18% / 11% / 3% / Up 15% - not too shabby and no leader!

NDP bolstered by jump in poll

 

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/News/Local/2012-06-08/article-3003825/NDP-b...


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

NB

Party / May '12 / Feb '12

PC / 44% / 45%

Libs / 32% / 31%

NDP / 19% / 22% 

http://cra.ca/support-for-nb-pc-government-remains-steady/


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

felixr wrote:
Darrell Dexter is in the middle of pulling a Bob Rae: alienating his base and losing favour with the centre.

And pissing away all the hard work that Alexa McDonnough and Robert Chisholm put into building the NDP in the first place.


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

I'm not counting Dexter and company out. They aren't Bob Rae, by a long shot.

There is a patient, disciplined and methodical calculation to it all. And cynical of course. But we're talking now about what works, and cynical can work. Look at Steven Harper.

Which is not to say they will win out in the end, but there is a method... and it does work, whether or not it keeps working. It hepls when the alternatives are half-witted. With no election looming, people's disatisfaction bubbles up. Without an election, that is only loosely expressed in relation to the alternatives.

Convention time here. I wonder how many are there, and what the ratio is of numbers of base versus numbers employed by the government?


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

In a CRA Newfoundland and Labrador poll from November 13 to December 1, 2012 with a margin of error of ± 3.5%, the NDP has continued to hold onto to recent historically high level in support with 31% of voters choosing it compared to 33% in September and 28% in February (31% being within the margin of error of these previous results). This represents a significant climb from the already historically high 24.64% obtained in the October 2011 election. NDP leader Lorraine Michael is preferred for Premier by 29%, a statisical tie with her 31% in September.  Support for the Progressive Conservatives is up a statisically insignificant 1% for both the Conservatives (to 46%) and the Liberals (to 23%).

http://cra.ca/support-for-nl-pc-government-stable-remains-highest-in-atl...

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/newfoundland-labrador/


jerrym
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For a sample of 800 voters done by CRA in Nova Scotia with a margin of error of ± 3.5%, conducted from November 7 to November 30, 2012, the NDP government fell to 29% from 31%. However, Premier Darrell Dexter’s personal popularity has slightly improved to 26%, from 23% in August. The Liberals are unchanged at 41% while the Conservatives have climbed to 27% from 22%.

"Although NDP voter support has not increased this quarter, satisfaction with the provincial government has improved slightly. Presently, just over four in ten Nova Scotia residents are satisfied with the overall performance of the Dexter government (42%, up from 37% in August 2012). One-half of Nova Scotians are dissatisfied with the performance of the NDP Government (50%, compared with 54%), while seven percent (compared with 9%) do not offer a definite opinion."

http://cra.ca/ns-liberals-maintain-lead-in-voter-support-pc-party-making...

In the 2009 election, the NDP gained 45.26% compared to 27.22% for the Liberals and 24.52% for the  Progressive Conservatives. 

http://cra.ca/ns-liberals-maintain-lead-in-voter-support-pc-party-making...

 


jerrym
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 A CRA poll of 400 New Brunswick voters with a margin of error of ±4.9%, done between November 13 and December 1, 2012, found that the NDP fell from 24% to 19% since three months ago, while the Progressive Conservatives stayed at 38% and the Liberals went up to 38% and a tie with the PCs from 32%. 

"Presently 46 percent (compared with 47% in August 2012) of New Brunswick residents are either completely or mostly satisfied with the provincial government, while a similar number (49%, unchanged) are dissatisfied. ... Three in ten New Brunswick residents prefer David Alward for Premier (29%, compared with 33%), while Brian Gallant of the Liberal Party is preferred by approximately three in ten (29%, up from 18% for Interim Leader Victor Boudreau). Support for Dominic Cardy of the NDP stands at 11 percent (compared with 15%)." (http://cra.ca/support-for-nb-pc-government-remains-stable-liberal-party-...)

 

The selection of a permanent Liberal leader is the most likely cause of the spike in Liberal support.

 

Despite the recent decline in NDP support, the current 19% of voters favouring the NDP is still significantly higher than the 10.41% it obtained in the September 2010 election. (http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/new-brunswick/)

 

 


Sandy Dillon
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Joined: Mar 15 2003

NorthReport wrote:

NB

Party / May '12 / Feb '12

PC / 44% / 45%

Libs / 32% / 31%

NDP / 19% / 22% 

http://cra.ca/support-for-nb-pc-government-remains-steady/



WOW TALK ABOUT SLOW LEARNERS EH? The P.C.'s still ahead in N.B.?


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

While a CRA poll of Nova Scotian voters released on March 6th shows the three main parties' changes in popularity all within the 3.5% margin of error of the last CRA poll, the NDP is up 3% to 32% while the Liberals are down 2% to 39% and the PCs have dropped 3% to 24%. There is 5% support for the Greens. 

The Dexter government has a 40% satisfaction level and a 51% dissatisfaction level. Dexter's personal popularity has declined from 26% to 21%. Liberal leader popularity has also declined from 33% to 26% while the PC leader has increased from 17% to 20%. 

http://cra.ca/ns-liberals-maintain-lead-over-ndp-although-margin-declines/


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

I'm known to be no fan of Dexter and this government, but I'm puzzled by his personal numbers.

Leader numbers are in practice a mash of what people think of the Leader, and also strongly tend to express where the party itself is headed.

Looking around me, I cant account why Darrel would be going down, or that the NDP is headed for more trouble.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

I'd be interested in knowing from which parts of N.S. the polling firm called.

The economy around Halifax is set to expand tremendously once the shipbuilding contracts start.  That's where the majority of NDP seats are located, (16 seats of 23 within a one-hour drive of the two bridges).

It's the areas outside of metro Halifax where the Liberals have gained support, but with redistribution, there will be two new seats in the Halifax area, and 1 less seat overall (52 to 51 next election).

All the NDP has to do is keep the same number of seats around Halifax (or add some) plus as few of the more popular incumbants hold onto their rural seats, and the NDP can win another majority.

 


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Dream on.

The chance for a majority is utterly gone.


kropotkin1951
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Joined: Jun 6 2002

David Young wrote:

The economy around Halifax is set to expand tremendously once the shipbuilding contracts start.  That's where the majority of NDP seats are located, (16 seats of 23 within a one-hour drive of the two bridges).

The federal Conservative military procurement program is going to get people to vote for the NS NDP.  Is that really what you meant?


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Not to mention that in 4-5 years when those jobs start coming on in more than a trickle, presuming they go ahead more or less on schedule despite the uncertainties.... after another 4-5 years those shipyard job numbers MIGHT catch up with the permanent shrinkage in numbers of teachers and other educational professionals.

[And despite the propaganda saying otherwise, those education job number shrinkages are far greater than the rate of student population shrinkage.]

Even the NDP's friends in the business boosters don't expect a "tremendous" expansion out of this, even if things go well.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Realistically, it seems very likely that NS is headed for another minority government after the next election. I guess the question is whether it ends up being the NDP or the Libs with more seats - and even if the NDP had a plurality of seats, would the Tories form a coalition with the second place Liberals to "stop socialism in its tracks"? Othersise, how long could a minority NDP government last with the PCs holding the balance of poweer?


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Stockholm wrote:

Realistically, it seems very likely that NS is headed for another minority government after the next election. I guess the question is whether it ends up being the NDP or the Libs with more seats - and even if the NDP had a plurality of seats, would the Tories form a coalition with the second place Liberals to "stop socialism in its tracks"? Othersise, how long could a minority NDP government last with the PCs holding the balance of poweer?

That would depend, Stockholm, on how long it takes for the P.C.s to dump their leader, Jamie Baille, after the election.

He's not resonating with the voters, and should they do as bad (or worse) than they are now, it wouldn't be untill next year when they would pick a new leader (Peter Mackay?).

 


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Even without dumping leaders, or the desire of many to do so, I think there is a very low likelihood of any kind of alliance between the Liberals and PCs to overpower an NDP plurality. It wouldn't be seen as legitimate. But more to the point, they dont have anything in common- certainly not a united front to get rid of the [not] dreaded socialists.

Against that there is the real fear the PCs would have of being pulverized after being a junior partner.

The same goes for NDP governing minority with the PCs holding the balance of power: unless something pretty dramatic changes, the PCs are going to be in fear of another election. Another page in how to govern Dexter can take from Harper- not nearly as vicious or ruthless [this is Nova Scotia]; nonetheless commonalities of how to wield power, and how to dominate the long games, regardless of what the horse race polls are saying at the moment.

The Dexter crowd is not quite as proficient as Harper at making sure all the ducks are lined up; but given the half-witted competition the NDP has historically faced, they dont have to be as good at it.


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

The Newfoundland Progressive Conservatives have been caught manipulating the results of provincial polls when messages of Conservative MHA Paul Lane's BlackBerry were leaked. "In the messages, Lane urged supporters to vote, and also demonstrated how to get around the security features to vote multiple times to manipulate the result."

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Kathy Dunderdale although admitting the PCs had done this, says it's not a big deal that her caucus and political staff attempt to influence the results of online opinion polls. Her response to a newspaper article on this was "Oh please. There's no story here. Do we participate in polls? You betcha. Who in Newfoundland doesn't? We're politicians. We have a perspective. We have to relay what that perspective is, and talk about that perspective to the people of the province." She compared this manipulation to voting in online polls for TV shows.

However, Lorraine Michael, the NDP leader, emphasized that the PCs' tactics were a blatant attempt at manipulation of the public: "I find it inappropriate actually, and I find it a manipulation".

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2013/02/20/nl-...

 


Hunky_Monkey
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Joined: Jun 11 2004

Even with current polling numbers and a 7 point Liberal advantage, seat prediction by thehundredeight.com gives the Liberals only 24 seats to the NDP's 20 with the PC's at 7 seats.

If the trend continues and the gap closes, the NDP could win re-election with a tie or even a point or two behind... similar to Glen Clark in BC.


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Are you saying/guessing that close to a tie COULD give the NDP the most seats? Or that the NDP most likely will get the most seats if it is around a tie for the popular vote?

Something like that- for some [structural?] reason they will probably get more seats than their popular vote would indicate?


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

As in PEI and Newfoundland, the NDP are growing in New Brunswick. The latest CRA poll from February 13 to March 8, 2013, with a ±4.9% margin of error shows NDP support increased to 26% from 19%. Support for both the PCs and the Liberals are down. The PCs fell from 38% to 32%, while the Liberals dropped to 35% from 38%, mirroring a pattern seen in Newfoundland. 

"David Alward’s personal popularity declined this quarter, with two in ten New Brunswick residents preferring Alward for Premier (21%, down from 29%). Meanwhile, Brian Gallant of the Liberal Party is preferred by one-quarter (26%, compared with 29%). Support for Dominic Cardy of the NDP stands at 15% (compared with 11%)."

http://cra.ca/voter-intentions-tighten-as-satisfaction-with-nb-pc-declines/


jerrym
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I think that the weakening of the Employment Insurance program is not only hurting the federal Cons in the Atlantic region but is damaging their PC cousins in these provinces and contributing to the recent growth of the NDP in the region. 


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

Dont think so.

The PEI PCs are imploding all on their own. They make people want to run from them.

Thay are the govt in NB. Nuff said, let alone what they do to encourage it.

The NS PCs seem to be trying to turn bland into an art form. They arent capable of offending anyone, or even of being associated with Harper.


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

But yes, Mulcair and the ascendance of the federal NDP would be helping in PEI and NB. Especially when people are just casting around for something else.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Any theory on why it is that in Nova Scotia the Liberals have been the only beneficiary from the NDP slide while the PCs are still a distant third? Its not like there aren't typically lots of NDP/PC switchers in Nova Scotia and the PCs were the government less than four years ago.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Stockholm wrote:

Any theory on why it is that in Nova Scotia the Liberals have been the only beneficiary from the NDP slide while the PCs are still a distant third? Its not like there aren't typically lots of NDP/PC switchers in Nova Scotia and the PCs were the government less than four years ago.

Jamie Baille is seen as a pure 'corporate' leader. who saw his main leadership candidate, Karen Casey, jump ship to the Liberals after the leadership contest.  Since the election, the P.C.s have lost by-elections to the NDP (Antigonish) and Liberals (Yarmouth) in addition to Casey's defection.  He's not connecting with rural voters, even though he was parachuted into a rural seat in a by-election.

Stephen McNeil has been Liberal leader since 2007, and represents a rural riding, so he is more familiar to non-urban voters.

But since the number of rural ridings is decreasing, and the Halifax-area ridings are increasing, the Liberals and P.C.s will be fighting each other over rural strength, while the NDP continues to have it's best support in the metro area.

 

 


KenS
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Joined: Aug 6 2001

I largely agree with David. One major caveat- that the NDP doesnt have the numerous Metro seats sewed up that have retiring incumbents. The Liberals are particularly on the move in Dartmouth. Let alone the NDP erosion in rural seats.

Stockholm wrote:

Its not like there aren't typically lots of NDP/PC switchers in Nova Scotia and the PCs were the government less than four years ago.

I dont really have any statistical backing for this, but I think that this traditional two-choice preference has become 'undefined' in Nova Scotia. Like maybe it still exists on paper, and people will answer that way if the question is abstract enough or an election is far enough away; but generally the 'switcher choice' isnt operative. So that when people who have voted NDP [last time at least] start drifting, they don't have much tendency to go back where they were.

In other words, if you poll people now for first and second choice- I think you'll find that for a whole lot of folks, one of those parties they have not voted for in the past.


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