Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Federal Byelection Part 2

bumping as the other needs to be closed

bumping

With the NDP victory in Tuesday's provincial by-election in Antigonish, will there be some spill-over into C.C.M.V. for their turn on November 9th?

I don't remember, and don't want to go dig up polling data, but i think it was only better for GPC/May.

At anyrate, those votes for May are a dogs breakfast. I doubt there is anything consistent to be drived from them.

As to theother question- Antigonish is a long way, culturally as well as geographically, from CCMV. Like Yarmouth and Linenburg are to each other.

My point, KenS, is that for generations, the Liberals and Tories have told the people not to vote NDP because 'They will never, ever win here!'

Well, now that the NDP has won in places that they had never won before, it shows the voters of C.C.M.V. that the NDP is a viable option.

Whether or not they take that option will be seen on November 9th, but the more old myths that the two old-line parties pushed onto voters for decade after decade which are shattered, the greater the chance that change can, and hopefully, will occur.

Here's an electoral map of Central Nova from the 2008 federal election.

Here is a video by the Green Party candidate Jason Blanch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GirIvRFCScU

It looks like climate change and Copenhagen are a big part of his campaign.

I would like to agree with you Remind! The only issue that concerns me is I am hearing from people who are going to vote Green this time rather than NDP because of the environment. The NDP & Mark Austin better do something soon in this by election because currently, they're not considered to be putting up a challenge and are getting zero press coverage 

It is a sleeper, I agree with you, but you have to agree with me that Mark is in a coma and I actually travel in many different circles

And by the way. I believe you said you just got here to Babble, and plan on sticking around. Time will tell about that.

And I may be mistaken, but I really think there was a JP who popped up during the Nova Scotia election and made similar kinds of comments... and if my memory about such a person is correct, has not been heard from since.

We used to be able to search the archives to check out a hunch like that. Maybe its still possible in the brave new Babble, but I don't know how.

What I take from this is that you see it as a virtual dead heat between NDP and Tories. I take for granted that your bias leads you to double the likely Liberal vote - so I apply the following adjustment to your projection:

Liberals - 18%

COC - 39%

NDP - 37%

Green - 6%

BTW: I wonder how many votes the CHP will get. Sounds like they are campaigning quite actively.

I wouldnt say the CHP is campaigning actively just because they have a number of signs up.

Jim Hnatiuck is after all their national leader. That must at least give them enough money for as many signs as they can put up. And I wouldn't be surprised if they also buy radio spots.

The NDP campaign here is flat. Mark gets no coverage, he's got no phone campaign, no advertising. He just rolled the big signs out this week and there must be a problem finding new places going on because there are a few houses with multiple 4x4s in terrible locations. Whoever is running the campaign is doing a terrible job.

He's got no chance. I just hope he gets the required vote for election finance so the campaign doesn't end with too much debt.

But thanks Anderson for your concern that the NDP clears 10% so they can get the rebate financing.

We know we have to work hard to get 10%. Not much air around here with the red hot Liberals sucking it all up.

I'm not spinning. I really don't think Mark is going to pull 10 percent at this point. The voters in this riding are in the wild since Casey and I'm convinced that they're going to either return to the Tories or fall with the candidate that looks like he'll win as an anti-Harper vote.

As for this provincial - federal connection you keep trying to make - it's just not showing on the ground. The money, the people, the party support...it's not here and it shows. There is a fundamental difference between these two elections.

Darrell Dexter is a safe politician who ran on an unambitious platform against a rookie in McNeil and the guy everyone wanted out in a weak economy with a lot of union and out of province support. He looked like he was going to win and voters here decided to follow the sweep.

Jack Layton is a lame duck stuck propping up Harper until his 2 term MPs hit the full pension date some time in late spring. An NDP vote is a Tory vote for the next 8 months. He doesn't ever stand a chance of forming the government. There is no benefit to the region for people here to vote for him.

I think that Mark will get the core NDP vote less some strategic voters. His community ties are only with the NDP core and environmentalists in the Liberal and Green fold. He just doesn't have the profile to win without a strong campaign and his team certainly isn't giving him one.

Again. Not spin. This is what's going on here.

Sheesh. Lets see if there is anything except spin in there.

In the unlikely event you are still around after November 9, someone should remind you of that howler.

Two completely unsubstantiated assertions in one simple statement. You have talent. One is that voters on the whole go looking for who would beat the Cons, and secondly that they would know and of course in your universe thats the Liberal.

The provincial-federal connection made is the voting trends- on the federal level, let alone provincially- which you have just waved away. But as to the other point you make. You have absolutely no way of knowing what kind of money the NDP campaign or how many people they are phoning. All you have to go on is how many signs and ads you see. And even that, you are laughably hyper-biased. But thats a sideshow. The point is you don't know anything about the NDP campaign except the tip of the iceberg. And in this sleeper by-election, phone canvassing will be even more determining than it usually is. The NDP has the records and marks from running 4 top flight campaigns provincialy out of the 5 in the riding. And in the fifth, they ran as much of a campaign as the Liberals paltry efforts in their best 2. The Liberal campaign has no data base to go. While the Casey campaigns have lots, its an open question whether the Cons got those, and even if they did, those can't be counted on at all.

Can't disentangle all the gobbleygook in there. MacNeill's a rookie, and Iggnatieff is what now? MacNeill actually performed at least tolerably, and Iggy, well... And dumb sheep just following a sweep. Etc.

In the Liberal bubble Jack Layton looks like shit, and Iggy shines. But this is CCMV, not Alice in Wonderland.

Notice that Liberals only spread this manure on blogosphere fields. You wouldn't dare try to peddle that to voters.

So how does everyone feel about watching Jack Layton for years pound his chest and stating that the NDP would not support the Cons only to flip flop on it once Ignatieff said "it's now up to you Jack because we're done supporting them".

Your thoughts please

So you're not going to answer the question? If you do, I'll answer yours

Stockholm already answered you. If you had seen the longer versions you would know that's an apt summary. And you've been registered long enough to have read those fairly extensive discussions. But that would require that you have an interest beyond spreading spin about this race.

You wouldn't need to have remembered what Stockholm in particular said. Even a cursory skim of the discussions would have made his quip here familiar to you.

Not to mention that your "question" itself is a transparent grasp at changing the subject from the previous spin not working.

The slightly longer summary of Stock's quip would be that Layton's shift was at the outset not fun to watch, but even then overall it was, like, "big deal". It was clear from the outset that only junkies were going to care- none of whom are going to change their minds about who they support. And very quickly, Jack Layton was looking good, while Iggy even had to publicly admit that his positioning was not popular. But don't let that stop you from relishing your inside the Liberal bubble views.

By all means- you could show a little more of yourself by following through on your offer to tell us what you think of Iggy's recant.

And by the way, just a reminder that part of your hither and yon explaining away of how the NSNDP did in Cumberland and Colchester was that the Liberals had a rookie leader. Well at least MacNeill had decent ratings. While Iggy's are consistently bad and well behind his not doing very well in the polls party. So if you think MacNeill was a drag on what the Liberals could have done, then the 'Iggy effect' for CCMV would be what now?

Candidate debates mean very little any more. So much so that a candidate can even get away with not showing up. Again, all the two of you ever talk about is the tip of the iceberg, sprinkled with completely unsubstantiated claims about Marks campaigns. IE, things you have absolutely no way of knowing- "Mark has no phone campaign". Etc.

Your apologia for Iggy's "attractiveness" or lack therefor is very weak at best. And for purposes of the discussion here- its pathetic and irrelevant. Because its how Iggy looks right now that matters in this by-election. As apoplectic as Jack Layton makes you, he is definitely an asset- the NDPs biggest. Iggy is a drag on a party that is floundering anyway... let alone that the ship has done sunk in central and eastern mainland NS.

I didn't want to grace that smear with a reply. If you want a reply I have to know exactly what I'm replying to. So you can if you like elaborate on how this works. IE, something like, MPs get their pensions at point X, X number of NDP MPs were just short of this. No broad brush drive-by "I heard ______ ." Either you explain the mechanics, or link us to a source that does.

I'd suggest opening a thread in the Canadian Politics section if you wish to stir things up with this issue.  Frankly, Jack Layton hasn't taken any real hit for this decision with the general public while Ignatieff has rapidly bled support to the Conservatives. So just who has misread the public mood here?

Your opinions are your opinions and wouldn't get so much argument. But you also make claims that have a factual pretension- "no phone campaign, no support or money in Mark's campaign," etc. Those are things only someone pretty active in a particular candidates campaign would know. They are not observable from on the street indicators. So, no you would not see it. [And for what its worth, based on my experience and what I see "on the street," they all look like weak 3rd place campaigns. Comparisons between them on that basis is really splitting hairs... leaving aside thats its never a solid basis of comparison.]

I agree with the comment by 1weasel: if you want to pursue this further, open a thread on it in the Canadian Politics forum. Or show how its a relevant issue to the voters of CCMV.

I'll touch on 3 aspects I'd be looking at if you do open that thread. One is that its questionable whether this is ever the decision maker people puff it up to be, for any party. It might, at best, have some influence in marginal cases like this summer when a number of Bloc MPs were one month from bumping up a category in pension vesting. IE, wait a month, maybe, if you have reasons anyway to want to wait. But that was the exception to the rule that most of the accusations are a huge stretch.

And one reason they are a huge stretch is because the people making them act as if there is the line where once you pass it, its a big pot of gold, and the other side- nothing. MPs pensions and other eqivalent of severance pay doesn't work like that. In any party, at all times, a block of MPs are just a short ways from some upgrading line. There isn't a leader out there who is going to be swayed by how one of those blocks... not even the hapless and harrassed former Leader of the Liberal party.

And your last line is really rich. A Liberal is going to pontificate about strategic decisions not being determined by policy and principle?

Edited to Add: Your post just before mine here has absolutely no relevance to the campaign in CCMV. You raised the issue that in the provincial election the Liberals were hampered by the rookie MacNeil. When I asked what that implies about Iggy's influence on the CCMV, you drivel on about how hes improving. Iggy's standing with the public now is what the Liberals have for this election. If you want to talk about his potential and likelihood to pull up his socks, there are a number of threads where that would fit. Or you could start a new one on that subject alone.

"A Liberal is going to pontificate about strategic decisions not being determined by policy and principle?"

Only when the NDP has been sounding the trumpet of voting on those principles only to be caught in the lie when their hand was forced. 

I've got no real problem with waiting for the pension date. Politicians from every party sacrifice a lot and take a huge risk and beating for what they do. I don't want to see any of them (even the Tories) not taken care of properly. I also realize that political decisions are not made blindly on principle - but the NDP has been presenting that way for a long time because they haven't had to be accountable. That's the danger of a minority government on the third party - you can't hide from scrutiny.

Now - back to the campaign - election campaigns are largely based on optics. Does your candidate have name recognition? Does she or he demonstrate leadership qualities? Do they look like a winner? Especially during a byelection because the key is motivating people to vote when voting numbers will traditionally be down. The most common comment at the door is "I didn't know there was an election."

If your candidate can't present a strong case that your vote is going to count then the people are likely to stay at home and whatever is happening behind closed doors doesn't matter if it doesn't get out to the people.

No offence to Mark who is a good guy and would be capable - but his campaign is just not generating buzz. Definitely not in those places that were buzzing during the provincial election. 

And so far Ken - the only argument you've offered is that you think this riding will vote NDP because they did in a relatively unrelated provincial election. And you're dismissing my observations as a guy who actually lives here from the riding next door where you can't even see what's going on.

Walk the streets. Go to the coffee shops, the farmers market, the sale barn, the rinks, the community gatherings, the debates - go peak your head into the Mark's office and then tell me what you see. I'm telling you it's an uninspired and uninspiring campaign.

If the polls prove me wrong then I'll take my lumps but everything I know about politics and campaigns in this riding tells me that people here see this as a two-person race and Mark isn't one of them.

Just for my own curiosity - besides Moriarty - who else actually lives in CCMV?

I work in Truro, and travel through Cumberland. And its highly unlikely you can match my campaigning experience. But I still wouldn't make any of the kind of sweeping claims you make based on what one can see at street level. This election will be won on canvassing and E-day vote pulling. The success of canvassing depends on two things: volume, and the targeting of your calling. In any election, all the more true in a by-election, and yet more true in this obvious sleeper.

90% of the payout in canvassing is not what people think its about. Its not persuading voters. Its identifying supporters [which includes the persuasion factor of keeping them and getting them to the polling station because you at least called them.] And here's the one thing those of us outside the campaigns can tell: the NDP has at least several thousand freshly identified supporters, and the Liberals have nothing to go on because they haven't run a top campaign anywhere in CCMV for 10 years. Even if they spend the limit, it'll be tough because they are fishing for those several thousand supporters you have to identify to win.

That doesn't mean you can't possibly win- or come in second trying. But it does mean there is that mountain to climb, and probability is pretty low you will do so, no matter how many signs you see [which isn't many], or how high you get walking into Burrows HQ.

Thats a particularly grotesque trivialization of the nuanced and detailed argument I made. No one here ever said just that voters were going to follow along and follow through. Several of us gave details of what is in the NDP's favour- including specifically trends in federal voting.

Anderson, I've noticed your commentary in the Amherst Daily News.  And the Truro Daily News.  And the Halifax Chronicle-Herald.  I think we know what your job on the campaign is, and honey we've seen it all before.  You show up here to spin once the election's on, and after it's over, we'll never see you again (I can hardly wait).

Layton is going back to the riding tomorrow for, I believe, his third visit.  Do drop by and let us know when your leader makes his third visit, won't you?

In the meantime, all you've offered as a reason for voting Liberal is a bunch of speculative strategic voting bunk.  Can you let us know your candidate's position on any relevant issue?  Because your leader has been on both sides of every issue since he muscled himself into the job.

YOu mean like the day before yesterday when the NDP proposed a bill on climate and the Liberals and Tories shot it down?

How does it feel to be the only person in Canada (outside the Tory party) who seriously wishes the NDP had forced an election on Oct. 2 and sent the country on a one way ticket to a Tory landslide. There is no point forcing an early election unless there are WINNING CONDITIONS for an election.

I read daily in the MSM how the liberal leader is really nothing but a joke and essentially a loser. Each week his polling numbers go down where now he is at what - 15% popularity - and correspondily the libs numbers keep going down. I wonder what Iggy or is it Iffy will poll next week? It's so funny - Mr. Elitest who is pro tarsands, protorture, and pro neoliberal policies is well - cough - just can't connect with ordinary folk. No kidding - laugh out loud - Iggy is a public joke.

But I sure ensure the Liberal party's troubles - it's a weekly comedy show. Thanks Iggy!

Another repost from my submission to EPP (but you can read it here first, it's slightly edited and Milton's been pretty slow on posting comments):

I just came back from a campaign event in Amherst today.  Layton was in town to rally the troops and have lunch with Mark at Duncan's, a small but great spot in Amherst.

There was a pretty good turnout, but more importantly was who turned out.  The faces were all the same faces from the provinical campaign!  People are sticking with the NDP!

It looks as though all of the naysayers claming "people won't just vote NDP because they did provincailly" are wrong, because that's excactly what's happening.  Not only will they vote NDP, they'll donate, canvass, take lawn signs, make phone calls, come to events and so on. 

I personally witnessed a self proclaimed former Tory who was around for the provincial campaign hand Mark a cheque.  This person came out of nowhere druing Skabar's campaign, had never been political in his/her life and like most good Nova Scotians went to the poll to vote Tory every election...that was until this past May.  Now the person is a card carrying party member who donates time and money to the NDP!!!

The Cons do seem to have more lawn signs in Amherst, but Tories around here think nothing of plunking lawn signs on rental properties owned by supporters regardless of what the tenants inside would like.  There is one particular case of this on Havelock Street in Amherst, a house where the Skabar campaign went back twice to confirm with the tenant that they wanted a Skabar sign up because it kept being torn down by the landlord.

They put signs in vacant lots, at empty homes, homes of seniors who would rather not fight them, the poor or uniformed who don't know any better, and businesses and commercial buildings owned by their supporters.  All of this without asking!

The folks in charge of the Hunter and Fage provincial campaigns in Amherst did the same thing.  It's an old trick and it doesn't work.  They learned that lesson in the provincial campaign...I guess they'll have to learn it twice.

I'm tightening the numbers on my prediction:

NDP 40%
CPC 36%
LPC 19%
CHP 3%
GPC 2%

so?

Source TDN - About 30 people gathered to listen to Layton.

As I said, it's not how many are showing up to campaign events, it's who is showing up.  The party is maintaining its supporters from the provincial campaign, this is great news!

Expectations of huge crowds at events in CCMV are unrealistic.  The riding is huge!  And it's also divided by the Cobequid Pass Toll Road.  Truro is not in Amherst's backyard and vice versa.  The people of Springhill can hardly be expected to drive nearly 6 hours both ways to go to event in Musquodobit...so let's say we drop the emphasis on the quantity of people at individual campaign events...it doesn't matter!

6 hours?  I know some of the roads are not in great shape (even with the infrastucture $$$ disproportionately sent into the riding) but that should be total time.  Point taken though, you can barely get people from Dutch Settlement out to Middle Musquodoboit for events (apart from the Exhibition) so I'd only expect the most partisan from further afield.

Real surprised about Iggy because the public sure doesn't like him - his popularity is sinking like a stone - hard for ordinary folk to warm up to an elitest. It really shows - he's not only uncrismatic but is iffy about everything - I guess that's why the MSM has niknamed him "Iffy."

Actually, the Jack/Mark event was publicized on the Austin website and his Facebook. And yes the TDN did confirm that approx. 30 people showed up. But really, who cares. Who cares how many supporters show up for any of these photo-ops for any of the camps? Doesn't matter. Shouldn't matter.

Moriarty. This entire region is getting tired of your daily NDP cheerleading on here, TDN, ADN, etc.. Aren't you the same guy who was cursing very loudly because "your guy", Brian Skabar, didn't get a Cabinet seat. And thus he would have to do "free labour" in the legislature. As if these politicians aren't making enough money in the first place. I'm guessing you don't have a full time job, and thus don't bear the responsibility of paying taxes, so that the politicians we pay to work for us can play games with it.

When will you "bloggers" post some real, hard facts about this byelection. That's what the people who don't follow politics on a daily basis are hoping to find when they stumble across rabble, pundits guide, etc. 

But all they get to read is lies, lies, and more lies. Red, Blue, Orange, Green. They are all the same and when one of you spin-doctors can write something on here that sets them apart from one another, maybe you will be taken seriously. Until then, SHUT UP!

This message is not directed at Stockholm, KenS, OO, and the rest of the consistent contributors. I am only frustrated by the blatant pile of crap being spun by obvious individuals. You know who you are.

Peace

So, I've just finished reading the news from CCMV.  In fact, Layton went to the farmer's market in Amherst (and brought two other MPs with him, Peter Julian and Tony Martin), then a visit somewhere else, then the campaign office (which looked quite busy if you check out the photos on Mark's website).  Then he attended a hockey game at the arena that evening.  The next day he and Peter Stoffer went to the Legion to make presentations to the veterans there, and then he had his pension thing with the 30 folks mentioned above in Truro.  All told I bet he met hundreds and hundreds of people.

Iggy blew through town for how long, Armstrong?  Is he coming back at all?

http://www.amherstdaily.com/index.cfm?sid=299364&sc=58

http://www.amherstdaily.com/index.cfm?sid=299370&sc=58

http://www.trurodaily.com/index.cfm?sid=299264&sc=68

http://www.trurodaily.com/index.cfm?sid=299429&sc=68

http://thechronicleherald.ca/NovaScotia/1150624.html

Isn't it odd that NewCanada demands, with inflammatory language, that we STOP TELLING LIES, and yet s/he offers no information at all.  The idea here is to discuss the campaign, which means offering thoughts and comments on the race not other posters.

Strange how you recognize my handle...but I don't remember any "NewCanada" on either babble, TDN, ADN or CH.  Say what you like about my posts, but at least I'm not hiding behind multiple handles.

Yes I was, and still am pissed that Brian didn't get a cabinet seat.  In fact this whole ministerial assistant thing is dodgy and I wish DD would get rid of it.  But what that has to do with the federal by-election campaign I don't know.

And the whole full time job thing...well I do have a full time job, and in fact I also have a part time job.  I have two jobs!!!  How many do you have??!!  Nana nana boo-boo....let's grow up shall we...

It was amusing to read your post NewCanada, and congratulations you got me to respond to it...but it would be great next time if you could offer some info on the race.

 Having been off my day job for the past week, I had a chance to talk to many people about the by election and yes, it is a sleeper. It was with great interest that I was present when a former longtime tory supporter offered and gave financial assistance to Jim Burrows campaign. He said he had enough sitting on the sidelines and decided to become more involved and the Liberal party was where he felt better represented. He now works on Jim's campaign and says he has persuaded at least 10 other's to do the same!! There is a movement in Jim's favour that even KenS has to agree with

My, aren't we imperious tonight.

As to the convert- happens all the time. Every election I have worked in someone comes forward who has long worked for the Tories. It is very gratifying to those of us inside the bubble. But its just a reflection that, yes, the wheel does turn.

Trust me NewCanada...if Ottawa had really alienated the local NDP, this campaign would be quite a bit better off than it is now.  There's quite a bit of resistance to hardcore campaigning from New Democrats around here.  That's all I'll say on that, but rest assured, local New Democrats are heavily involved with this campaign.

It seems you're on babble offering up an opinion that the independent candidate, Graves, might be an option for people.  That somehow because Casey sat as an independent, the people of the riding should want someone else to?

Casey left that job because he was miserable!!  And Graves should know that to sit as an independent in Canada's parliamentary system, however noble the intention, is absolutely the worst thing for not only herself, but also her constituents.

Our parliament and our electoral system needs to be fixed before ambitions like Kate's can be realized.  If you have Kate's ear I would suggest that you suggest to her to take her passion for helping people, talking to people and being involved and put it to work for electoral reform (www.fairvote.ca) or join the team of a candidate willing to work toward electoral reform  In this case that would be Austin or Blanch.

And I think I've offered some good info thanks very much...I try, unless drawn in by someone like yourself, to steer clear of information that doesn't help understand the race.  It was my submissions on babble during the provincial election that drew people's attention to the fact that Skabar was winning.  So I do try to make sure the shit I say is accurate and relevant...but you're right, I tend to only report on the good news for the NDP. 

The civic centre funding is an important issue.  It points to an overall probem with the Conservative government's spending habits. There's plenty of info out there that clearly shows a pattern of Conservative punishment of opposition ridings, and the civic cenre in Truro is a great example of this.

Oh and before I forget, I believe in credibility in life and politics. With that said I direct anyone being fooled into believing that moriarty's NDP is above anyone else need only read my favourite posting of this by-election thus far, http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/riding/12007.php

And I quote,

"09/10/17   Moriarty   138.**.**.34

I want to clear up Smok's posting on the CHP results in the Amherst Daily News online poll. The ADN website's online polls are very easy to manipulate. They do not post the amount of votes received, which damages the credibility of the data. The newest releases of Internet Explorer and Mozilla Firefox both have ?In Private? browsing capability which allows a browser to send new info to a website at each visit. I was doing this for Mark Austin until I got tired of keeping up with whoever was doing it for the CHP. Apparently the CHP guy has either a kid, or nephew/niece who knows some tricks about the internet. My argument is that the ADN online poll is not legitimate data. I encourage EPP staff to check out how easy it is to manipulate (you'll be able to change the results within a handful of votes) and then question whether Smok's latest contribution should remain on the site."

Yeah you're "for real" aren't you. Rigging polls right beside the CHP. There's credibility. I especially like the comparison you make to yourself and a small child.

Peace.

You all think manipulation of web polls is new? or significant?

I wouldn't waste my time doing it. But its no less a waste of time "exposing it."

Or Anderson or anyone else on here who doesn't share the socialist views. How very hypocritical to condemn the info of non-NDP supporters yet justify the actions of your own by declaring it irrelevant.

I know damn well that if that poll had shown the NDP to be getting the most support, moriarty would have been on everyone site out there preaching about how his beloved won that poll. And you know that too, KenS.

Just so, mtm!  Thanks for the common sense.

The NDP likes to claim that they stand for something unlike the limp-wristed and "whichever way the wind blows" Liberals. The NDP is "principled." They spent years railing against how terrible and opportunistic the Liberals were for propping up the Harper Conservatives to avoid an election, and now have done the exact same thing themselves. Can I get an H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-T-E-S? Can I get an NDP=Conservatives or at least an NDP=Liberals=Conservatives cheer? Can I get a Jack Layton in full flight from the press conferences, no questions when it doesn't suit us please?

Debate was last night. It was somewhat better than I expected it to be...

Here's how I rank it. (And I'm trying to be as objective as I can here.)

Winner: Jason Blanch - Green 2nd: Jim Burrows - Liberal 3rd: Mark Austin - NDP 4th: Scott Armstrong - Conservative 5th: Crazy guy - CHP Blanch absolutely stole the show. Intelligent and witty. Burrows tooks some good shots at the Tory record and pinned Armstrong down for most of the evening. Austin was ok. I overheard him say afterward "Whenever the Greens come I lose on the environment." which is fair. Blanch has nothing to lose so he can go to town. No big hits scored. Where was Lenore? Armstrong sounded like an angry robot that was running out of batteries near the end. Or like the mayor from the Simpsons. He didn't even say "Harper" once during the whole thing - nor would he say there was no rift with the PM. Crazy guy from the CHP - I was sitting next to some of Scott Armstrong's supporters who were applauding what he had to say. Really?...I mean REALLY? Especially on the climate change crap. I just hope he gets 3-4000 votes.

Big minus to the moderator who reprimanded Burrows for attacking Harper's record and relationship with the riding (even though Armstrong was there to defend him) and then he asked 2 questions about Harper and his relationship with the riding.

I for one think its about time the NDP dropped the sanctimonious "we are 100% principled come hell or high water to the point of total self-immolation" shtick. I think the NDP made the right decision not to give Harper the snap election he wanted. Do you seriously think it would be good for Canada if the NDP had voted for the Liberal non-confidence vote on Oct. 2 and we were having a national election next week and we were looking at a likely Tory landslide? I don't. Sometimes you do what you have to do. I really don't care if two or three people say the NDP was not 10000% pure on one occasion. Its worth eating a spoonfull of crow to avoid a cataclysm. The public seems to agree.

It makes the NDP sound like a bunch of insufferable cranks. It also makes the party lazy. When the central staff think they can lean on the whole principled opposition to everything schtick every time they can't find a way to get involved in the debate, then the NDP looks brain dead and irresponsible. "We're not going to read the budget, we are opposing the Conservatives on principle." "The budget may have a lot in it for our supporters, but we are going to oppose it on principle."

It also has the potential to get the party slapped in the face in these minority situations, as this last about-face shows. The same thing might have happened to the NDP in 2006 and 2008, but they were actually well prepared for those elections. And yes I know it didn't hurt the NDP in the polls or among its supporters, but how much of that is due to apathy (scary considering that the NDP needs its volunteer support) as opposed to approval.

Lovingly, I thought you were sounding a tad cranky yourself there, VJ ;-)

NC, calm down.  Let the one without sin cast the first stone.  Somehow this convo got ratcheted up to personal invective, and everyone should just calm it right back down again.

You're right OO, I apologize.

I come from the dirt of Cumberland County. I work, sweat and bleed for this region and have grown tired of seeing it ignored. When I read my news, I expect it to be unbiased, honest and non-partisan. Just because there is a comment section doesn't entitle others to leave propaganda about their campaigns.

I believe in free speech just as much as anyone, but posters like moriarty and others are ADVERTISING.

If you know the candidate on a personal level, can speak to their honesty and integrity, then make a comment about them. If you don't then stay out of my local papers, or pay for the advertising space. If you want to vote on online polls, fine. If you are going to waste time trying to influence my family and friends by acting like children,whatever. I agree they don't mean anything. Principle.

I don't know any of these candidates on a personal level, so I can't comment on what they will or won't do for this region. But neither do most of you. My father and I started reading all of these websites when this by-election was called because we care about our family and our community.We like being knowledgable in life, makes things easier in this day and age, and we wanted to form a remotely sensible opinion when talking to people in the community.

If you don't know anything real, don't pollute the information highway. Peace.

I have been following this thread for a while, but have refrained from commenting; however this seems like a very reasonable request, so I will do my best to answer you NewCanada.

The candidate I can tell you about, because I have known him for many years, is Jim Burrows. Like yourself, he has spent many years, thirty in fact, putting in hard labour on his farm. In addition, Jim has represented his peers at the local, provincial and national levels, especially in an agricultural context. He has worked hard to improve the state of agriculture in this province, and continues to do so. Jim is well known and respected in his community, having taken part in many community projects; such as chairing a committee which developed and continues to operate a senior housing facility. Through his role as the chair of the board of directors of Scotsburn, he has proven that he will work for the people that he represents, and do so effectively.

I can't speak to how the other candidates might perform as MP, but I can tell you that Jim will be a dedicated, honest and reliable Member of Parliament.

Take this as you will, but I have done my best to give you an honest reply.

Its legitimate moriarty. You know Mark and what he has done- give the pitch.

Jon, your thoughts and personal knowledge of Jim Burrows were very well articulated. Moriarty, I agree with KenS, Jon's thoughts are genuine. I do find it truly rude of you to post a response such as "Puuuhlleeaaasssee" Is no one except for you Moriarty allowed to post their thoughts on issues/candidates?

 If you wish to post your thoughts on Mark Austin, I will not only listen but more than likely agree with you as I believe he is a great principled person but on the wrong side of politics for me right now! I also believe no matter what you say, your credibility has taken a hit because of your fiddling with poll numbers! OO is correct, we need to get back to the issues which are fun in their own right to discuss

The Conservatives did a great job mobilising their advance vote in the 2008 election for the Québec swing seats. The BC Liberals (kissing cousins of the Federal Conservatives) did a great job mobilising their advance vote for BC swing ridings. The NDP rarely has a GOTV strategy for the advance polls. My CFA guess is that the Conservatives have always thought they could win CCMV and are/were much less confident about the other byelections. As such, I am guessing they have done a good job of organising their CCMV campaign and it is their supporters that were pulled for the advance polls.

Hmm.  I hadn't seen that data on Quebec.

If I had to pick a candidate who seemed more in tune with and able to say what we all feel, it was the Green Party candidate Jason Blanch last night on CKDH! He is witty, doesn't tell you what you want to hear and believes in the local economy! Mark Austin made a claim of something Ignatieff said and couldn't remember the wording Ignatieff used or what paper he said it in and Jim Burrows allowed him to get away with it. Scott Armstrong had trouble with his mic and is almost symbolic of his campaign. Jim Hnatiuk does not believe in Global Warming!

Umm, well.  I do use a different handle on CBC...lol

huh??? now you're just rambling....very sad.