NB Politics Potpourri 2-All the little dirty secrets revealed.

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Debater

CBC New Brunswick:

Except for Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou, the polls are now CLOSED.

https://twitter.com/CBCNB/status/514187447962722305

Debater

It will be interesting to see whether this late Forum poll showing a narrow PC win turns out to be accurate.

Eric Grenier has now updated his projection to include the latest Forum poll.

PC - 26

Liberals - 23

NDP - 0

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VjlThYIQ6Bw/VCAeQOT95yI/AAAAAAAAUCU/1Y4lxfTB-M...

http://www.threehundredeight.com/search/label/New%20Brunswick

Debater

Looks like it will be a narrow Liberal win, although it hasn't been officially declared yet.  So if that's the case it's a victory for Brian Gallant & the Liberals and they will have avoided defeat, but obviously not the big one they wanted.

CTV comments on 2 other issues:

1. The MLA's who defected to the NDP have been defeated.  Jane Taber says defecting to another party is not usually a good idea.

2.  Jane Taber & the others also say that the NDP's move to the center may not have been a good idea.

Debater

Interesting that the Green Party has a better chance of getting its leader elected tonight than the NDP.  Would certainly be a victory for the Greens, and for Liz May at the Federal level if they can break through provincialy in another province.

Unionist

Looks like the Green is in.

PrairieDemocrat15

I wonder if the Greens will still support PR if Coon gets in with under 6% of the provincial vote.

Sean in Ottawa

The NDP must do some work but I am not unhappy to see the Greens get a seat.

Debater

One more poll to go, but it looks like the Greens will win Frederiction South.

Eric Grenier predicted it would go Liberal, so that's a victory for the Greens there.

Debater

Liberals winning the popular vote easily, so that will be an additional moral victory for Brian Gallant.  Would be embarrassing to win the seat count, but lose the popular vote.

Sean in Ottawa

So Cardy just resigned

Sean in Ottawa

Now the Greens with balance of power... if it holds

NorthReport

The NB NDP lost big time for one reason - they are not talking about jobs. They barely beat the Greens in popular vote.

The NB NDP nor the federal NDP get it, just like the BC NDP didn't get it. 

Looks like Mulcair is going to go down to a crashing defeat next year as well.

Unfortunately the NDP has lost its way - it used to represent the working people in Canada. Not any more.

terrytowel

NDP in NB has never recovered from Elizabeth Weir leaving the leadership of the NDP

NorthReport

The NDP really don't have much of a clue about politics, and that the name of the game is to win.

And it shows over and over and over again.

The voting public, working people, are not buying the nonsense they are selling.

 

terrytowel

NorthReport wrote:

The NDP really don't have much of a clue about politics, and that the name of the game is to win.

And it shows over and over and over again.

The voting public, working people are not buying the nonsense they are selling.

Andrian Dix, Andrea Horwath, Dominic Cardy, Olivia Chow

They all used the same playbook and ailenated their base, and new voters didn't seem to buy what they are selling.

NorthReport

It looks hung, unless it changes, and several ridings are still too close tro call.

KenS

NorthReport wrote:

The NB NDP lost big time for one reason - they are not talking about jobs. They barely beat the Greens in popular vote.

The NDP vote is nearly double the Greens. Entirely different strategies. NDP banked on being at least close in a number of ridings, and organized for that.

The one seat beachead business is a sterile dead end, even if the alternative did not work.

And the NDP did talk about jobs. Not to mention the Greens sure as hell did not.

The greens banked totally on shale gas backlash- which was enough to sew up one seat.

terrytowel

Dominic Cardy was working WITHOUT a salary for the past four years.

Why didn't the NDP just pick the seat with the most NDP support and target all their resources to get Dominic elected?

That seems like a no brainer.

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

Looks like Mulcair is going to go down to a crashing defeat next year as well.

You're predicting Mulcair's demise now? Surprised

Mulcair is not likely to do as well as Layton, but I wouldn't predict a 'crashing defeat'.

NDP will still have a respectable finish.

KenS

KenS wrote:
The one seat beachead business is a sterile dead end, even if the alternative did not work.

Debater

The election results have been frozen in NB for the past hour.

This is why you don't give a private company control over a public election.

Private enterprise should not be entrusted with this type of responsibility.  Should have remained under the control of Elections New Brunswick.

Debater

David Coon (Green Party Leader) now speaking on CBC.

Debater

Elly Alboim pointing out that he can't ever remember a popular vote being won by this much and being this close in seats.

Could the Liberals be actually farther ahead in seats?  Another vote tabulation problem not showing up, or just a very unusual vote efficiency by the PC's?

https://twitter.com/ealboim/status/514232862477135872

Debater

Paper ballots exist in case electronic counting has to be re-done.

Elections Canada statement just read on CBC.  Updates halted by Elections Canada, and machines returned to the riding offices.

jjuares

What is the popular vote?

Debater

The popular vote (if the figures can be trusted) is:

Liberal - 45%

PC - 36%

NDP - 13%

Green - 6%

Debater

Elizabeth May now being interviewed by Harry Forrestall on CBC.

I think this is the most coverage the Greens have gotten all year.

If the NB Greens do indeed win this seat, it will allow May to make the argument that her party can pick up additional seats at the Federal level.

jjuares

Debater wrote:

The popular vote (if the figures can be trusted) is:

Liberal - 45%

PC - 36%

NDP - 13%

Green - 6%


Thanks. If the seat count is accurate then the PC vote was really efficient. If they were to gain a couple of seats which is quite plausible what moral authority would they have to govern.

Debater

CBC reporter:

PCs calling for full manual hand count of the paper ballots.

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/514243753192988672

jjuares

Debater wrote:

CBC reporter:

PCs calling for full manual hand count of the paper ballots.

https://twitter.com/poitrasCBC/status/514243753192988672


Which is ironic given that the electronic voting debacle happened under their watch.

bekayne

Is who won the election one of the "little dirty secrets"? When does it get revealed?

Debater

David Akin is reporting that this same private company is being considered by Elections Canada to count next year's Federal election results!

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/514225843459981312

As I said above, I don't think that a public election should be contracted out to a private company which has no accountability to the public.  The company isn't even answering telephone calls tonight, apparently.

Debater

Here's a screen capture someone made of tonight's NB election results frozen in time:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByL2mTrIcAUr6So.png:large

Hunky_Monkey

Kind of funny hearing people trash Cardy for this election result.  The result is actually the best, popular vote %, that the NB NDP has ever received.  

Cardy got more votes than Elizabeth Weir.  

JKR

The U.S. Supreme Court has announced that they are in possesion of the missing memories cards and have decided in a 5-4 decision that the PC Party is the legal government-elect of New Brunswick.

Stockholm

NorthReport wrote:

The NB NDP lost big time for one reason - they are not talking about jobs. They barely beat the Greens in popular vote.

Actually they talked about jobs ad nauseum...and the only party that was 100% pro-fracking was the PC party who got tossed out of office after just one term. As insincere as they likely are - the NB Liberals at least pretended to also want to end all fracking. If people just care about JOBS and damn the environment - why did the Alward and his pro-fracking policies lose?

Basement Dweller

I agree, the NBNDP result is hardly a disaster. Cardy did alright considering how things have been going for the NDP in Atlantic Canada lately. I wonder if he'll run federally.

Stockholm

I wonder who would be in the running to succeed him as NB NDP leader...it has to be someone perfectly bilingual with great communication skills and an encyclopedic knowledge of all the major public policy files - and who is willing to work for free for the next four years.

PS: I will indulge in one bit of "schadenfreude" over how that Wayne Dryer who lost the NDP nomination in Saint John Harbour and then ran for the Greens - came in dead last with just 500 votes.

Hunky_Monkey

Stockholm wrote:

I wonder who would be in the running to succeed him as NB NDP leader...it has to be someone perfectly bilingual with great communication skills and an encyclopedic knowledge of all the major public policy files - and who is willing to work for free for the next four years.

PS: I will indulge in one bit of "schadenfreude" over how that Wayne Dryer who lost the NDP nomination in Saint John Harbour and then ran for the Greens - came in dead last with just 500 votes.

Still managed to pull in almost 14% of the vote in a riding that was expected to be one of our strongest.  Think he took a lot of support that might have gone to Stackhouse who only got 20.5%.

 

Debater

CTV PROJECTS LIBERAL MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

Debater

Brian Gallant now speaking on CTV.

NB Co-Chair/Liberal MP Dominic Leblanc is with him.

Debater

Interesting projection from CBC New Brunswick:

CBC is predicting a Liberal majority government of 27 seats based on the information that we have from the tabulators so far

https://twitter.com/CBCNB/status/514262047270666241

Debater

Liberal - 27

PC - 21

Green - 1

David Coon declared elected as first Green MLA in Frederiction South:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ByMOOZIIEAA48O5.png:large

Hunky_Monkey

Interesting how the NB Liberals almost blew this election.

PrairieDemocrat15

terrytowel wrote:

Dominic Cardy was working WITHOUT a salary for the past four years.

Why didn't the NDP just pick the seat with the most NDP support and target all their resources to get Dominic elected?

That seems like a no brainer.

My thoughts exactly. The NB NDP seemed to play this election like they were the third party in a three-party province.  Think that is too optimistic giving New Brunswick's history with th NDP (especially at the provincial level). The NDP ran nearly a full slate and seems to have spread its resources too thin. They should have focused on Cardy's riding and a few other where, at the end of the night, it seems they could have won with more effort (Hampton comes to mind). The Greens focused their resources and ran a small slate, as did the PANB. This tactic (just) paid off for the Greens and almost did for the PANB. The NDP got 13% and nothing to show for it. Dominic did talk about these contrasting strategies in a RAW interview with CBC. He said he did not want to focus just on getting into the legislature and becoming the so-called "conscious of parliament," but wanted several NDP members elected so the party could actually have some influence on legislation. Whatever the case, I'm sure he - like everyone - did not expect the Greens to sneak into the legislature on 6% of the vote. If Coon does well and the Greens grow and overtake the NDP as the alternative to the old-line parties in New Brunswick, this election and Cardy's failed strategy could be much more damaging to the NBNDP than anyone in the party could have anticipated. I hope that doesn’t happen. But I also hope Coon does not pull and Andrew Weaver and start voting with the government.

It is too bad, I liked Cardy. He seems quite competent and intelligent (it seems he had a successful career in international relations both in government and NGOs). I hope this is not the last we will see of him as an NDPer. The party's platform was one of the best I have seen in a while and Dominic did well in the debates. I think some of the late-in-the-game campaign developments also hurt them. That one candidate coming out against the party's shale gas policy was hardly the party's fault and seemed a very selfish move by the candidate. However, crashing Gallant's press release came off as amateurish to me (reminded me a little of SUN News or the CTF with the use of a prop) as did the candidate re-tweeting a Downfall video. Although Downfall videos are used for comedic purposes and do not equal a comparison to Hitler/Nazis, its still inappropriate for a political candidate to associate himself/herself with one.

Debater

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Interesting how the NB Liberals almost blew this election.

True.  

But that's politics.  It's often about close calls.

They pulled it out in the end and so Gallant did not become a Tim Hudak or an Adrian Dix, and another province has gone Liberal.

We'll have to wait until next year to see what happens Federally since things can change, but Jane Taber did say on CTV that Harper's low Atlantic numbers were a drag on the PC's.  Meanwhile, Gallant is fortunate that Trudeau is polling #1 down there.

Also interesting to note that Gallant won tonight because of the Francophone vote.  The large majority of Francophone ridings went Liberal, and the majority of Anglophone ridings went Conservative.

Hopefully this will repeat itself next year so that the Federal Liberals win back Moncton & Madawska-Restigouche, both of which are occupied by unsavoury Harper Conservatives since 2011.

Stockholm

FYI, the Greens did not run a "small slate", they had candidates in 46 out of 49 ridings and I have no idea how the resources they poured into Coon's seat compare to what the NDP put into Cardy's

Caissa

If the Liberals were ever going to support this election could cause them to do so. They came close to losing the election despite having a large lead in the popular vote.

terrytowel

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Cardy got more votes than Elizabeth Weir.  

Yes but Elizabeth Weir won a seat four elections in a row.

As I said the NB NDP has never receovered since she stepped down as leader.

terrytowel

Anyone think at this point the NB NDP will try to coax Yvon Godin to leave federal politics for provincial politics?

The NB NDP cannot offer a salary for the leader, but maybe Yvon could live off his federal pension.

Let's face it, he is the most popular NB NDP politician right now.

He'd definately win a seat no question when another election is held.

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