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David Young

NorthReport wrote:
What has the ns ndp done about creating jobs? Or is that why the liberals are going to form a majority government in ns?

Please don't tell me that you have bought in to 'the polls' which are predicting the demise of the N.S. NDP, have you?

I seem to recall that there were polls that said that Alberta and B.C. were going to change governments, and guess what?

 

janfromthebruce

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knownothing knownothing's picture
David Young

Darrell was great in the debate.

I prefer this format over some of the other structured debates that don't allow a lot of freedom.

Of course, the Liberal-friendly media will say that McNeill was the hands-down winner....over and over and over again.

 

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

Actually most of the reviews are pretty bad for MacNeil

janfromthebruce

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ghoris

An outfit called Corporate Research Associates is doing a daily tracking poll for the Chronicle Herald As of today, they had the Liberals at 56 (+3), the NDP at 27 (-2) and the PCs at 16 (-1). The Liberals have been polling in the 50s for the last few days while the NDP has not cracked 30 since the end of August.

Obviously all polling numbers have to be taken with a big grain of salt following the B.C. and Alberta debacles, but if these numbers are anywhere near accurate the Liberals are headed for a majority and the NDP could see its seat count cut in half (or more).

NorthReport

CRA is the pollster of record in that area. My hunch is they are right on rthe money.

When voters don't see clear differences bewteen the leading parties, and are offered a choice between quasi-Liberals like Dexter & Co, or the real thing, voters will always choose the real thing. 

About 2 years ago was the time to turf Dexter but no the NDP lwould rather lose elections, that remove a leader who is just not cutting it. 

Where are the courageous NDPers? The silence is deafening.

Who else is getting tired of supporting people and political parties who don't really want to win!

Like Adrian Dix, and Bob Rae before him, Dexter has damaged the NDP brand possibly beyond repair.

Aristotleded24

NorthReport wrote:
CRA is the pollster of record in that area. My hunch is they are right on rthe money.

When voters don't see clear differences bewteen the leading parties, and are offered a choice between quasi-Liberals like Dexter & Co, or the real thing, voters will always choose the real thing. 

About 2 years ago was the time to turf Dexter but no the NDP lwould rather lose elections, that remove a leader who is just not cutting it. 

Where are the courageous NDPers? The silence is deafening.

Who else is getting tired of supporting people and political parties who don't really want to win!

Like Adrian Dix, and Bob Rae before him, Dexter has damaged the NDP brand possibly beyond repair.

Yup. The most important asset the NDP has is the belief that the NDP stands up for "the little guy (and gal)." Too many NDP politicians have burned up that social capital to the point that people think of the NDP as "the same as everyone else," especially in those provinces where the NDP either has governed or can expect to govern on a consistent basis.

Stockholm

So how have they managed to win 4 straight elections in Manitoba where the NDP is arguable more moderate than anywhere else?

Lens Solution

ghoris wrote:

An outfit called Corporate Research Associates is doing a daily tracking poll for the Chronicle Herald As of today, they had the Liberals at 56 (+3), the NDP at 27 (-2) and the PCs at 16 (-1). The Liberals have been polling in the 50s for the last few days while the NDP has not cracked 30 since the end of August.

Obviously all polling numbers have to be taken with a big grain of salt following the B.C. and Alberta debacles, but if these numbers are anywhere near accurate the Liberals are headed for a majority and the NDP could see its seat count cut in half (or more).

Liberals at 56?  Which poll is that?  This poll from tonight has the Liberals a few points lower, at 51, although granted that's still a high number.

The above poll may not yet have taken account of last night's debate, so perhaps the numbers will shift around a bit once the newer numbers filter through.

 

Corporate Research Associates/The Chronicle Herald (September 27, 2013)

 

Liberals (51)

New Democrats (28)

Progressive Conservatives (19)

Green party (2)

undecided/don’t know (20) 

 

(encompass polls conducted Sept. 12-26)

 

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1157292-polls-point-to-big-liber...

Centrist

ghoris wrote:
An outfit called Corporate Research Associates is doing a daily tracking poll for the Chronicle Herald As of today, they had the Liberals at 56 (+3), the NDP at 27 (-2) and the PCs at 16 (-1). The Liberals have been polling in the 50s for the last few days while the NDP has not cracked 30 since the end of August.

CRA uses direct telephone surveys - which are a helluva more accurate than the cheaper "opt-in online panels" or "robo-calls" now used by most other pollsters IMHO. BTW, here are the latest NS CRA poll tracking results, which I find to be incredulous:

[img]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-F6mVtZx2ag4/UkWWQLelmlI/AAAAAAAAQOA/VNuEqEKSrX...

ghoris wrote:
Obviously all polling numbers have to be taken with a big grain of salt following the B.C. and Alberta debacles, but if these numbers are anywhere near accurate the Liberals are headed for a majority and the NDP could see its seat count cut in half (or more).

In a previous post, I also nonchalantly stated that the BC NDP was ahead by 20%+ but then lost the election. Having said that, the BC pollsters either used "opt-in online panels" (Ipsos and ARS) or "robo-calls" (Forum Research and Ekos).

And I personally now highly discount both "opt-in online panels" as well as "robo-calls" for public opinion polls after the BC election fiasco. In that vein, BC Ipsos' Kyle Braid told the media after the BC May election that Ipsos had completely different results from their opt-in online panels compared to a telephone survey, which results they did not release.

Furthermore, Mustel, whom I consider to be BC's top historical pollster, utilizing direct-contact telephone surveys, decided to sit out BC's May election after 20+ years - for whatever reason. Too bad.

KenS

News for hopeless political junkies:

e CRA has a virtual monopoly on public polling in Nova Scotia.

Abacus has apparently decided to give a run at giving them some competition, with a poll that appears to be aimed at being the last one out there. [And I would guess the media outlet would have to be the CBC, challenging the Herald's hold on the polling to be watched.]

In fact, the new this election rolling poll that CRA is doing, rather looks like a move to one-up Abacus.

So we'll see [at the last minute] if there is any difference in the predictions.

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:
So how have they managed to win 4 straight elections in Manitoba where the NDP is arguable more moderate than anywhere else?

Several reasons. For one, the NDP came to power in 1999 when the Third Way was really gaining momentum among social democratic parties. The other key factor is that the NDP in Manitoba has never faced a competent opposition party, and the Manitoba PCs are very adept at losing elections that are theirs to win. The NDP in Manitoba for about a year before the 2011 election been consistently polling behind the PCs, but the PCs ran a very poor campaign and lost an election they should have won.

Of course, Manitoba was presented as a template for how to the NDP should win elections, and the Nova Scotia NDP went down that path. While the Nova Scotia NDP was on this path, the 2008 financial meltdown completely discredited the notion of the Third Way, but the Nova Scotia section of the NDP was already too far along this path to seriously turn away by the time 2009 came around. The real unsung story of the 2009 election was the unpopularity of the PC government of Rodney McDonald, who led his party from government to third place, and of course, the NDP as the Official Opposition was naturally able to capitalize on that.

Aristotleded24

KenS wrote:
The NSNDP did not only go about heedlessly burning up its credibility with the left end of its base... from the outset.

And they have also been spectacularly incompetent in communicating their legitimate accomplishments to both the base and the general public.

I know that we have Alberta and BC in the background, but with numbers like that, I just don't see Dexter holding on.

KenS

 

Stockholm wrote:
So how have they managed to win 4 straight elections in Manitoba where the NDP is arguable more moderate than anywhere else?

 

Maybe its a question of how you go about it?

The NSNDP did not limit itself to heedlessly burning up its credibility with the left end of its base... from the outset.

 

If they do manage to survive- it will be a last minute repreive from the public, not the base caring enough.

I dont like this. But I knew it was a possibility, and still could not or would not lift a finger to help them.

 

live by the sword. die by the sword. 

KenS

Aristotleded24 wrote:

The other key factor is that the NDP in Manitoba has never faced a competent opposition party, and the Manitoba PCs are very adept at losing elections that are theirs to win. The NDP in Manitoba for about a year before the 2011 election been consistently polling behind the PCs, but the PCs ran a very poor campaign and lost an election they should have won.

I think this is central.

The irony is that I have always said that a big reason the NDP could steadily drive to victory is the dimness of the competition- and that the NS NDP was the first to stir up the lazy political culture here.

But there is dim, and then there is willfuly incompetent... like the Manitoba PCs.

Plus the fact that the NS Liberals pulled their act together-after looking determined to follow another band of half-wits over the cliff.

I always predicted we'd get real competition some day- no rocket science there- and that we would be in trouble when we did. But I didnt see it in this crew until well after it probably should have been apparent.

KenS

Aristotleded24 wrote:

And they have also been spectacularly incompetent in communicating their legitimate accomplishments to both the base and the general public.

We've been talking about relations with the base, and I think the communications was itself competent. We may have sneered at the regular emails, but I thought they were well timed and constructed, given the limitations. They made for good fun at supper discussions in my family.

But that was after the damage was done of completely thumbing your nose at all of the base, except those who will rationalize and support no matter what is done. That does not leave much to work with.

If you really sour people, then even those like me that can acknowledge the accomplishments, it is not enough to repair the damage.

We will not, we did not, come back merely because yes, you did some things that make you a little better than the alternatives.

Aristotleded24

KenS wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

And they have also been spectacularly incompetent in communicating their legitimate accomplishments to both the base and the general public.

We've been talking about relations with the base, and I think the communications was itself competent. We may have sneered at the regular emails, but I thought they were well timed and constructed, given the limitations. They made for good fun at supper discussions in my family.

But that was after the damage was done of completely thumbing your nose at all of the base, except those who will rationalize and support no matter what is done. That does not leave much to work with.

If you really sour people, then even those like me that can acknowledge the accomplishments, it is not enough to repair the damage.

We will not, we did not, come back merely because yes, you did some things that make you a little better than the alternatives.

Yup. Even the worst of the worst of the really bad governments (Brian Mulroney, Stephen Harper, George Walker Bush come to mind) accomplish a few things that are of benefit to the general population. If the simple yardstick required to be re-elected boiled down to "we accomplished something," there's no reason to ever toss out an incumbent government.

janfromthebruce

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Aristotleded24

Too little, too late. Nova Scotia Premier Bob Rae, sorry I mean Darrell Dexter, spent so many years burning up the social capital the NDP had among its own base (moreso than what we ever saw under Gary Doer, Greg Selinger, Roy Romanow, or Lorne Calvert) to the point that people just want the NDP out of office any way they can. The Liberals in second place in the seat standings are well placed to meet this objective.

Lens Solution

But how do you know the NDP base has abandoned Dexter?  They may still turn out for him next week.  You won't know that for sure until election day.

janfromthebruce

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Aristotleded24

Lens Solution wrote:
But how do you know the NDP base has abandoned Dexter?

I read babble.

Lens Solution

Sounds like most people here are still rooting for Dexter, despite there being some disappointments.

KenS

That the base will still vote for Dexter [probably] is a pretty low standard.

When a bigger chunk of the base than the left end that never likes NDP governments abandons lifting a finger for you, thats trouble.

And you have no basis for claiming that most people here are "rooting for Dexter".

A few people here are rooting for Dexter. There will always be some come what mays. The only thing you can say with some degree of confidence is that most people here do not seem to want the NDP to lose. Thats not quite "rooting".

Stockholm

Who would be the likely contenders for NS NDP leader post-Dexter?

KenS

Hey, even I dont think we're there yet.

There would be a number of possible and plausible contenders. And that is before no doubt at least a few more started sniffing the possibilities that most of us might not even think about.

Way premature to get into names.

Pogo Pogo's picture

Just counting names.  Most people who profess to be from the province who are participating in this thread are active in the campaign.

Lens Solution

NDP changes tack on McNeil attacks

September 30, 2013

 

With just over a week to go in the provincial election the NDP are switching up their anti-Liberal ad campaign.

The NDP had been relying on ads that warned Stephen McNeil’s Liberals were too risky to be elected.

It’s a well-worn campaign. In the last Manitoba election, the governing NDP used it to fend off the Progressive Conservatives.

That may not be a coincidence. Vancouver-based Now Communications has done ad work for both the Manitoba and Nova Scotia NDP.

The federal Conservatives also used a variation of the campaign against the opposition Liberals, while the British Columbia Liberals used it against the opposition NDP. In both cases the incumbents were re-elected.

On the other hand, the Nova Scotia Progressive Conservatives tried their own “Risky NDP” campaign in the 2009 election against Darrell Dexter. They ended up being trounced.

-----

Read more:

 

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1157609-ndp-changes-tack-on-mcne...

KenS

Pogo wrote:

Most people who profess to be from the province who are participating in this thread are active in the campaign.

Not most. Some. Not including me and others who are active in this thread and earlier ones.

I count three who have been active in discussions and are presumably active in the campaign. And three either not or probably not participating in the campaign, who have been active in the past.

I have a friend who feels the party "has to lose" for our own good. He has remained on the riding exec and is working pretty hard to re-elect his MLA, because he believes in the the role he can play. I would do the same if I thought my MLA stood out, but he aggressively defends everything that has happened, has even astonished me with his rudeness with constituents in public. Thats the circle the wagons mentality when you are certain people just dont know how good you have been for them.

janfromthebruce

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KenS

Eric Grenier in Huff Post

Nova Scotia Election 2013: Poll Suggests Stephen McNeil's Liberals Set To Defeat Darrell Dexter's NDP

The dailing tracking poll difference has grown to 33%. The campaign started with a gap of 20%. At tate time I still rated the NDP most likely to win a plurality.

Quote:

That is a remarkable gap — and large enough that another Alberta or British Columbia surprise is simply not in the cards. Even if every undecided voter (19 per cent) swung over to the NDP, the Liberals would still comfortably prevail.

....

Those sorts of leadership numbers only confirm the Grit lead. In the provincial elections in Alberta and British Columbia, for example, the leadership numbers hinted at a closer race than the voting intentions polling suggested.

....

For New Democrats to hold on to the only other government they have outside of Manitoba, Dexter will need to turn things around in spectacular fashion — or the polls will have to fail like never before.

 

Lens Solution

That is a remarkable gap — and large enough that another Alberta or British Columbia surprise is simply not in the cards.

----

I get what Eric Grenier is saying, but he should be careful about making any definitive predictions.  You never know for sure how voters are going to vote until Election Day.

KenS

He is being careful.

But his stock as a journalist hinges on being someone who reads well the numbers that are out there.

Like he says, if this does go the other way.... it would be a WAY bigger rejection of the polling than the BC or AB election results.

A different company is doing a conventional telephone poll that is out in the field this week, and will presumably announce their results this weekend. It must be the CBC paying for that one. So whatever is the primest broadcast time- thats when to expect it. Saturday might be bigger, but Sunday is closer to the election. Maybe Saturday night so they can have the stage to themselves for the longest.

 

Lens Solution

Why is the election on Tuesday rather than Monday?  Tuesday seems more like the American day for holding elections.  Monday is usually the day for Canada.

I guess it's not that significant, though.

KenS

Things are looking up.

The NDP is on a definite upward trend, with the Liberals moving down!

Gaining 7 points in the last two days.

Only 27 points to go!

Lens Solution

Is that a new CRA tracking poll?

janfromthebruce

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Lens Solution

Which poll are you referring to, Ken?  I noticed that there is some confusion about today's numbers, so I can't figure out what is up with them.

 

An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that in the latest CRA poll, the Liberal party’s lead over the NDP was 19 percentage points. The actual poll results reflect a lead of 29 percentage points.

 

http://globalnews.ca/news/877043/voter-participation-stagnant-while-libe...

Lens Solution

I found a link to the latest Nova Scotia polls from Eric Grenier's site at 308:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iooikbttVE0/Ukw1N8VzE9I/AAAAAAAAQSI/95dI2uATqh...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The lesson is...don't deal with a shortfall the way a Tory or Liberal government would.  

The people who voted for the party last time were on the lower end of the economic scheme of things.  It was OWED to them to make sure that they wouldn't have to make any more sacrifices at all.  Dexter had no right to make the poor and the workers "take one for the team"...especially since making them do that was never going to impress the people who were determined to make an NSNDP government fail.  The NDP, wherever it campaigns, should focus solely on helping those on the bottom...not appeasing those on the top.  The top can't BE appeased anyway.

Also, if there's no alternative to some cuts, don't make the austerity WORSE by insisting on keeping a totally unnecessary tax cut for the rich...in fact, don't cut taxes for the rich at all. Nothing in Dexter's tax policies did any good for Nova Scotia.  The classes who took the cut refused to create jobs while Dexter was in power anyway...they will only do so when the Liberals are in(or they might screw THAT party over and only do so when they think Nova Scotians will elect a PC government again. 

Dexter is history now...and the only way the NSNDP can recover at the next election is to promise to be totally different from Dexter's government.

"cleaning up the mess" just isn't worth it...especially since all doing so does is to encourage the right-wing party you're trying to defeat to MAKE the mess in the first place.

 

Lens Solution

Darrell Kyte writes in this column that it's not that the alternatives in Nova Scotia are so great, but that some progressives feel let down.

He compares it to the way progressives felt let down by Barack Obama after his first election.  Dexter's opponents don't look so great, but Dexter is vulnerable because he appears too close to big business and has perhaps not lived up the high expectations people had of him.  Stephen McNeil is running a pretty safe campaign and not doing much, but may win by defauit, basically.

 

No clear reason for provincial NDP’s rapidly dwindling support

 

http://www.capebretonpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/2013-10-01/article-3414...

Lens Solution

New Nova Scotia Poll:

 

Abacus:

LIBS 48

NDP 26

PC 25

 

500 surveyed Mon/Tue.

Live phone poll

MoE 4.5%

 

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/385531417234386944

KenS

LS, where did you see that David Akin tweet of the Abacus poll?

Seems strange, some poll results going out for an uncompleted poll.

I don't know, may mid-stream "progress reports" on polling have become the thing without me noticing.

Centrist

KenS wrote:
Seems strange, some poll results going out for an uncompleted poll.

Apparently, it's also a tracking poll that will continue up until Monday. Unusual that Abacus is using live telephone interviews in this instance, when they use opt-in online panels for their other polls.

http://abacusinsider.com/abacusinsider/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NS_Tra...

Lens Solution

KenS wrote:

LS, where did you see that David Akin tweet of the Abacus poll?

Seems strange, some poll results going out for an uncompleted poll.

I don't know, may mid-stream "progress reports" on polling have become the thing without me noticing.

I just copied it from David Akin's tweet earlier tonight.  He posted the above numbers, and I think was about to interview David Colletto of Abacus.

KenS

So it has morphed into a daily rolling poll- one upping the one up of the CRA/Herald poll.

With Sun going all out for eyeballs in the East [and Abacus after new business], count on hearing a lot about this poll and the polling in general.

There are some interesting secondary questions viz discussions that have been going on in this and earlier threads about the NDP/Dexter and its base. But I have to get to work.

janfromthebruce

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Lens Solution

Isn't Justin Ling a Conservative commentator?  What is his point?

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