Sackville-Cobequid by-election

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jerrym
Sackville-Cobequid by-election

The Sackville-Cobequid by-election, which was the result of the resignation of MLA Dave Wilson, has not yet been called but must be called by May 16th. The NDP have held the seat since 1984 with John Holm and Dave Wilson. The registered candidates so far:

Lara Fawthrop         Nova Scotia New Democratic Party (NDP)
Steve Craig           Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia (PC)

https://electionsnovascotia.ca/SackvilleCobequid2019

The Nova Scotia NDP have selected Lara Fawthrop to run in the Sackville-Cobequid byelection.

The party held their nomination ceremony in Lower Sackville on Saturday. The seat opened up in November when NDP MLA Dave Wilson announced he was stepping down.

Fawthrop says her focus, if elected, will be on wait times in health care, specifically when it comes to mental health. “For me, to represent Sackville, it would mean accomplishment for all,” said Fawthrop, “because one of the things I value is working together as a team. So it’s actually not for me, it means something for us.” ...

Fawthrop says she saw Wilson’s resignation as an opportunity. “I thought for a minute, maybe this is my opportunity to expand the work that I did at Sackvile High School for that school community, and to expand that work to the larger community of Sackville,” she said.

Sackville-Cobequid has been a stronghold for the NDP, with Dave Wilson representing the riding since 2003. Prior to that, NDP MLA John Holm held the seat for over a decade.

Provincial NDP Leader Gary Burrill says it will be up to the residents of Sackville, but he’s hopeful his party will continue to represent the riding. “The constituency has been served here for the last 35 years with extraordinary diligence, with a real door-to-door service to the people,” Burrill said.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4944314/sackville-cobequid-byelection/

 

 

 

Issues Pages: 
jerrym

The Liberals candidate is Michel Hindlet.

Hindlet has two decades of experience in technical sales in the electronics industry, according to the party. He has also served numerous causes including the Sackville Rivers Association, the Friends of First Lake organization, and the Sackville Lakes Park. ...

The NDP announced in February that Lara Fawthrop will represent their party. The PCs will have regional councillor Steve Craig running for them.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5164959/hindlet-liberals-sackville-cobequid-b...

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I'm glad I looked up the riding. When I hear Sackville I think of New Brunswick. So this is a exurban Halifax riding?

jerrym

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I'm glad I looked up the riding. When I hear Sackville I think of New Brunswick. So this is a exurban Halifax riding?

Below a map of its location and a description of the riding's history. 

https://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/ED2012ofNS_20160421.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sackville-Cobequid

 

jerrym

The by election was announced today on the last possible day of a six month period. It probably suggests the Liberals don't have high expectations of winning. 

Nova Scotia Premier Stephen McNeil announced Wednesday the byelection to replace former MLA Dave Wilson will be held June 18. Elections Nova Scotia rules say the premier has six months from the time of a departure to call a byelection. Thursday was the last possible day for McNeil to make the call.

The seat has been vacant since Wilson retired in November.

Four parties have already nominated candidates for the race. Steve Craig is running for the Progressive Conservatives, Anthony Edmonds is running for the Green Party, Lara Fawthrop is representing the NDP and Michel Hindlet will carry the banner for the Liberals. ...

Craig is a Halifax Regional Municipality councillor, Edmonds is an aerospace engineer, Fawthrop is a music teacher and Hindlet is a salesperson. Edmonds and Hindlet both ran in the last provincial election.

While incumbency is not a guarantee in a Nova Scotia byelection — seats have flipped in nine of the last 20 byelections — Sackville-Cobequid has been a staunchly NDP district dating back to 1984, when John Holm was first elected.

Holm held the seat until 2003, the year he retired and Wilson was first elected.

Wilson retired after 15 years as a New Democrat MLA, which included a stint as health minister and House leader for his party. He's now the director of the provincial 911 system at the Nova Scotia Emergency Management Office.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/sackville-cobequid-byelection...

 

jerrym

The NDP has filed a complaint on two issues with Elections Nova Scotia over the actions of PC candidate Steve Craig.

The NDP’s provincial secretary, Jamie Masse, said that they are looking to make sure the action’s taken by Steve Craig are in line with the act. The complaint centres on two issues, both of which are tied to Craig’s actions as a municipal councillor for Lower Sackville.

First is a $20,000 cheque given to the Friends of First Lake Society that the NDP allege could be a violation of rules about making donations during an election period. The writ for the election was officially issued on the same day the cheque was handed over: May 15, 2019.

Craig disputed that there was anything untoward about the cheque, saying that he’d originally planned to hand it over in April, but that he’d be asked by the organization to present the funds at the group’s annual general meeting on Wednesday.

Masse, who filed the complaint, said the other issue was in regards to a newsletter Craig sent to his municipal constituents.“We believe it’s advertising for him as a councillor and as a candidate,” Masse said. ...

Masse said they just want Elections Nova Scotia to determine if any rules have been broken. ...

Under the Elections Act, the chief electoral officer will now determine whether Craig has violated the act. If a violation has occurred, the chief electoral officer has a range of options which include dismissing the complaint, issuing a notice of non-compliance or prosecuting the offence.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5286573/nova-scotia-ndp-sackville-cobequid/

robbie_dee

I’ve got a lot of respect for Jamie Masse and I think he’s a very capable political operative. But these really seem like small potatoes.

jerrym

Elections Nova Scotia has ruled on a NDP raised issue concerning PC candidate and current municipal councillor for Lower Sackville Steve Craig giving a $20,000 cheque given to the Friends of First Lake Society on the day the by election was called did not violate any laws.  However, ENS's Chief Electoral Officer, Richard Temporale, has recommended "councillors take a break from their municipal duties if they run in future provincial elections." Elections Nova Scotia also recommends that laws be changed in this regard in the future because keeping a municipal office while running for a provincial position gives the candidate a"distinct advantage". 

According to ENS's Chief Electoral Officer, the money came from Craig's $94,000 district discretionary fund and was given to the president of the Sackville Lake and Trails Association at their annual general meeting on May 15.

"When interviewed during the investigation, Mr. Craig advised ENS that his decision to provide funds to the Sackville Lake and Trails Association was made in late April/early May of 2019 after the HRM budget was approved," said Richard Temporale in his decision released Wednesday. When the executive of the Association was informed of his decision, they requested he wait until the AGM on May 15, 2019 to present the funds." ...

However Temporale says being in a position to distribute discretionary funds give councillors a "distinct advantage" over competing candidates and he's recommending they take a leave of absence from elected positions during an election period.

"This legislative change would prevent the 'spill over' effect ... whereby an elected official's activities in their role as an elected official, that take place while they are a candidate for the provincial legislature, will not influence potential voters in an ongoing election," Temporale suggested.

Temporale would also like to see Halifax Regional Municipality update guidelines on spending during municipal, provincial or federal elections, so that discretionary funds can't be allocated by councillors from the time they register as a provincial candidates through to election day.

https://www.halifaxtoday.ca/local-news/leave-of-absence-for-councillors-...

jerrym

Election Nova Scotia's (ENS) Chief Electoral Officer, Richard Temporale, recommendation that "councillors take a break from their municipal duties if they run in future provincial elections." In addition, ENS's recommendation that laws be changed in this regard in the future because keeping a municipal office while running for a provincial position gives the candidate a"distinct advantage" is producing a lot of discussion following the PC's candidate and municipal councillor, Steve Craig, in the  Sackville-Cobequid by-election giving out $20,000 on the day the by-election was called to the Friends of First Lake Society.

In the decision, Elections Nova Scotia Chief Electoral Officer Richard Temporale indicated that although the rules weren’t broken it may be time that they are changed, perhaps to move more closely in line with what MLAs looking to move into federal politics have to abide by.

“I think it’s a sound recommendation,” said NDP Leader Gary Burrill, despite the ruling going against what his party asserted. “The CEO has said under the letter of the law what happened strictly speaking is legal but it’s very poor judgment and it ought not to take place.”

Burrill says it’s vindication that the complaint they made was warranted, even if the framework isn’t in place at this point.

“The 25 words or less version of that report is that what happened with the disbursement of public funds by a sitting councillor running for MLA is something that ought not to happen and that the laws of Nova Scotia should be changed so it doesn’t happen in the future,” he said. ...

PC Leader Tim Houston has differing views on the report. He believes the rules governing municipal politicians entering the provincial picture are different from what’s dictated to MLAs heading to federal politics for a reason and isn’t interested in any changes being made.

“I think we need to be realistic that councillors have responsibilities, committees representing people on different issues and doing that during the writ period I don’t think is going to make or break an election,” Houston explained. “Lots of people have a job when they’re campaigning and if they feel they can do both of those to the best of their ability that’s a decision they have to make.”

“Of all the issues that keep me awake that’s not one of them,” said Premier Stephen McNeil, who downplayed the suggestion that the rules require an update. ...

Mark Furey, the minister eesponsible for the Elections Act indicated that they are continuing to review the decision and admits it does pique some curiosity.\

“It’s an interesting discussion,” he said. “Obviously there’s a difference between the municipal level of government and the provincial, federal level of government. We’ll look at the report provided by Mr. Temporale and determine what out next steps will be.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/5339638/elections-n-s-decision-on-sackville-c...

jerrym

There has been a surprisingly heavy turnout in the early voting for this byelection with 1,000+ voters voting early.

With one week remaining until election day, June 18, more voters in Sackville-Cobequid have taken advantage of early voting opportunities to cast their ballot in the current by-election than they did in the 2017 Provincial General Election (PGE).

As of noon today, 1,122 people from Sackville-Cobequid have voted in the by-election.

https://electionsnovascotia.ca/node/640

jerrym

 Sackville-Cobequid by-election results 36/40 polls

NDP Lara Fawthrop 1,426    41.1%

Cons Steve Craig 1,316          37.9%

Liberals Michel Hindlet 380     10.9%

Greens  Anthony Edmonds 328   9.4%

Atlantica David F. Boyd 21   o.61%

https://results.electionsnovascotia.ca/by-election_multi.aspx

jerrym

Sackville-Cobequid by-election results 38/40 polls

There has been a massive change in vote totals after the addition of only two polls. I assume one of the polls was the advance poll. 

Cons Steve Craig 2,566         41.7%

NDP Lara Fawthrop 2,421    39.4%

Liberals Michel Hindlet 633     10.3%

Greens  Anthony Edmonds 484   7.9%

Atlantica David F. Boyd   43   o.70%

https://results.electionsnovascotia.ca/by-election_multi.aspx

Aristotleded24

Looks like the PCs took this one from the NDP.

jerrym

40/40 polls

Cons Steve Craig 2,655         42.0%

NDP Lara Fawthrop 2,472    39.1%

Liberals Michel Hindlet 658     10.4%

Greens  Anthony Edmonds 488   7.7%

Atlantica David F. Boyd   43   o.68%

https://results.electionsnovascotia.ca/by-election_multi.aspx

 

If one compares the results to the last two general elections, an inexperienced NDP candidate beat veteran NDP MLA's Dave Wilson 38.45% which was only 1.1% ahead of  the Liberal candidate's 37.35%, but was behind Wilson's 44.17% in 2017. In that election the Liberal vote fell to 25.98%, just ahead of the Cons 25.38%. Fawthorp was running against a local Conservative councillor who had previously run in the riding.  The Liberals had the same candidate running in the byelection as in 2017; however, the Liberal vote has dropped from 37.35% in 2013 to 25.38% in 2017 to today's 10.4% over six years, suggesting the Nova Scotia Liberals have serious problems with many voters. 

This conclusion agrees with this month's CRA poll that found "Six in ten Nova Scotians dissatisfied with the performance of the Liberal government" and are losing support: "The PCs have the support of 33% of decided voters (compared with 34% in February and 31% in November), while the Liberals are backed by 31% of decided voters (down from 37% and 38%). The New Democrats are supported by 21% (compared with 24% in each of the previous two quarters and the Green Party has the backing of 13% (up from 5% and 6%)". 

A well known Conservative candidate facing an inexperienced NDP candidate, a growing PC vote share and a small drop in NDP support led to a PC victory and the public's growing disatisfaction with the provincial Liberal government led to a dramatic drop in their voter share. The Greens have grown in support but finished well behind the PCs and NDP in the byelection.

https://cra.ca/voter-satisfaction-with-mcneil-government-at-lowest-level...

nicky

With the rise of the Greenswecan expect a good many similar results in upcoming elections.

The Green increases come at the expense of the NDP and to a lesser extent the Liberals.

in Sackville the Greens polled three times the Conservative winning margin.

if we end up with PM Scheer he will have the Greens to thank.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

nicky wrote:

With the rise of the Greenswecan expect a good many similar results in upcoming elections.

The Green increases come at the expense of the NDP and to a lesser extent the Liberals.

in Sackville the Greens polled three times the Conservative winning margin.

if we end up with PM Scheer he will have the Greens to thank.

And the Greens would still be gaining nationally and provincially if Mulcair was still leader.   Mulcair never had anything to offer voters who have green values.

Debater

Mulcair certainly had his flaws, but at this time 4 years ago, the NDP went into the last Federal election in 1st place in some polls as the main alternative to the Liberals.

4 years later and the NDP has fallen in support under Singh (particularly in Quebec), and lost 2 long-time NDP seats -- Outremont & Nanaimo-Ladysmith.

Mulcair didn't have the same ability to resonate with voters like Layton or Trudeau, but he was viewed as a strong performer in the House of Commons and was seen as a potential Prime Minister in waiting.  Meanwhile, Singh is now in a fight with Elizabeth May for Best PM.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:

nicky wrote:

With the rise of the Greenswecan expect a good many similar results in upcoming elections.

The Green increases come at the expense of the NDP and to a lesser extent the Liberals.

in Sackville the Greens polled three times the Conservative winning margin.

if we end up with PM Scheer he will have the Greens to thank.

And the Greens would still be gaining nationally and provincially if Mulcair was still leader.   Mulcair never had anything to offer voters who have green values.

Actually, since there are some polls putting the Greens ahead of the NDP, doesn't it make more sense for NDP voters to vote Green to stop the Conservatives by that logic?

jerrym

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

nicky wrote:

With the rise of the Greenswecan expect a good many similar results in upcoming elections.

The Green increases come at the expense of the NDP and to a lesser extent the Liberals.

in Sackville the Greens polled three times the Conservative winning margin.

if we end up with PM Scheer he will have the Greens to thank.

And the Greens would still be gaining nationally and provincially if Mulcair was still leader.   Mulcair never had anything to offer voters who have green values.

Actually, since there are some polls putting the Greens ahead of the NDP, doesn't it make more sense for NDP voters to vote Green to stop the Conservatives by that logic?

Certainly, not in this riding provincially according to the byelection results or even across the province according to the polls. The NDP got 39.1% of the vote 2.9% less than the winning Cons, a drop of 5.0% from 2017 and an increase of 0.6% actually over  2013. During these six years the Liberals have dropped from 37.35% and only 1.7% behind the NDP in 2013 to 25.38% in 2017 to 10.4% in this byelection even though they ran the same candidate in the last two elections. The Greens despite some growth only had 7.7%. The most recent poll, released this month by CRA, still has the Greens at 13% substantially behind the NDP's 21%. 

In Nova Scotia the Liberals at 31% have now fallen behind the Cons at 33% and six out of ten voters are dissatisfied with the provincial Liberals (https://cra.ca/voter-satisfaction-with-mcneil-government-at-lowest-level...).

With the defeat of the New Brunswick Liberals, as well as the PEI Liberals, and the Newfoundland Liberals awaiting a recount to see if they form a minority or majority government, there are also growing signs the federal Liberals, who are in a statisical tie with the Conservatives according to another CRA poll, will come nowhere near the 32 Atlantic electoral district region shutout of other parties that occurred in the 2015 election.

Right now I would say the NDP has a decent chance at one riding in Atlantic Canada, St. John's East, where Jack Harris lost by 1.4%  and the NDP won two provincial ridings in the area. Harris is running again.

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And the NDP sometimes makes gains in the Maritimes in years where it does badly everywhere else-it took a Nova Scotia riding in 1974, for example, when the party lost more almost half its seats and its leader was beaten in his own riding.