Saint John East Provincial by election (New Brunswick)

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Adam T
Saint John East Provincial by election (New Brunswick)

Unofficial List of Candidates

Provincial Electoral District has submitted candidate names.

(11/17/2014) 

   Saint John East

Shelley Rinehart Liberal Party

Glen Savoie Progressive Conservative Party 

Dominic Cardy New Democratic Party 

Sharon Murphy N.B. Green Party 

Arthur Watson People's Alliance of New Brunswick

 

Regions: 
Adam T

1.Shelley Rinehart Liberal Party

Saint John Deputy Mayor

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/shelley-rinehart-named-liber...

Rinehart is a professor at the University of New Brunswick in Saint John and has a PhD in business administration.

2.Glen Savoie Progressive Conservative Party 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/glen-savoie-seeks-saint-john...

former MLA 2010-2014

 firefighter, city councilor

​Savoie, who lost the Sept. 22 election by nine votes, is now running in the riding's byelection after the winner, Liberal Gary Keating, resigned citing health and family reasons.

3.Dominic Cardy New Democratic Party

Party Leader?

http://www.westmanjournal.com/news/international/new-brunswick-ndp-leade...

4.Sharon Murphy N.B. Green Party 

2014 election candidate

Murphy's family has lived in the Saint John region for generations. She is currently working for her family's manufacturing business in East Saint John.

http://greenpartynb.ca/en/news-events/media-releases/708-sharon-murphy-r...

5.Arthur Watson People's Alliance of New Brunswick

Arthur Watson is 43 and operates a small business in Saint John.

http://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/people-s-alliance-of-new-brunswick-names-cand...

 

 

Caissa

Word on the street is that Savoie will take it easily.

terrytowel

Caissa wrote:

Word on the street is that Savoie will take it easily.

That makes me sad because I really wanted Cardy to win and get in the legislature.

Debater

The NDP finished 3rd in this riding in the election, so it's always been unlikely that Cardy would win it, particularly since he had already resigned as leader last month and then oddly decided to take another kick at the can a couple weeks later.

Would not be surprised if the PC wins.  Would like it to go Liberal, but after the close result last month, perhaps the voters are fed up with the antics of their very brief Liberal MLA who quit a day after being elected.

terrytowel

This is one case where I would say "If you want to stop the Conservatives, you cannot vote Liberal"

Caissa

Prediction of order: 1. Savoie; 2. Cardy; 3. Rinehart; 4. Murphy; 5. Watson

Stockholm

If the NB Liberals come in third in SJ East so soon after winning power it suggests that Gallant's honeymoon is over before it even began...it also reduces the Liberals to a 1 seat majority in the leg - meaning they better hope no one else dies or quits and sparks another byelection!

Caissa

My understanding is that the electorate is very annoyed about Keating's resignation.

robbie_dee

When do polls close and will live results be available online?

Debater

PC's have won.

Liberals 2nd.

NDP 3rd.

Not surprised the PC's won.  I predicted above I thought that would happen.  I'm not surprised that voters were annoyed at their new Liberal MNA quitting after only one day.

Here's what Don Mills says about the Dominic Cardy situation: 

https://twitter.com/DonMillsCRA/status/534526266163339264

Debater

(PC) Glen Savoie 2,225,

(L) Shelley Rinehart 1,398

(NDP) Dominic Cardy 1,099

(G) Sharon Murphy 262

(PA) Arthur Watson 38

Debater

terrytowel wrote:

This is one case where I would say "If you want to stop the Conservatives, you cannot vote Liberal"

Funny it turned out to be the other way around. Wink If the NDP Cardy votes had gone to Rinehart, the Liberals would have beaten the PC's.

But I don't really mind, to be honest.  It doesn't change the balance of power.  No point in getting upset at the vote split.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/pc-glen-savoie-wins-saint-jo...

Adam T

I don't know who Don Mills is, but this is what he tweeted: "Have to wonder about Dominic Cardy's decision to parachute into East #SaintJohn bye-election. Results speak for themselves. #nbpoli"

 

Yes, because the NDP surely would have won the by election with a different candidate.

Caissa

NDP + Green, + People's Alliance out polled Rinehart by 1 vote.

The Libs and the NDP both ran the best candidates tey could under the circumstances.

terrytowel

I was really hoping Cardy would win the seat. Really disappointed for him.

Caissa

He never had a chance. He was essentially running against an incumbent in the case of Savoie.

Pierre C yr

3 times is enough Dominic needs to go Federal. Not sure it should be in NB tho.

Debater

Adam T wrote:

I don't know who Don Mills is, but this is what he tweeted: "Have to wonder about Dominic Cardy's decision to parachute into East #SaintJohn bye-election. Results speak for themselves. #nbpoli"

Yes, because the NDP surely would have won the by election with a different candidate.

Don Mills is the head of CRA polling - the most reputable Maritimes pollster & very well-known.  He's the one that was attacked by [former] PC Premier Alward last month before the New Brunswick election.

carpenter

I agree with part of the first part of Pierre's statement: 3 times is enough, Dominic needs to go...

Stockholm

Will the New Brunswick NDP shrivel back to Allison Brewer low single digits levels without Cardy or can they survive? Is there anyone else in that party who can pick up where Dominic Cardy left off?

Pierre C yr

NB has never been fertile ground for the NDP. Its one of the poorest provinces yet remains stalwart right wing. Its a bit of that republican thing where poor southern states keep voting them in against their own interests. The liberals here are dyed in the wool blue. IMO the lack of literacy and consequent lack of civic involvement along with a strong penchant for traditional politics that often runs in families condemns this province to a few more years if not decades of regressive politics.

 

Dominic should goto a province where he has a chance of getting elected to federal office. Hes too good a candidate to waste in unwinnable ridings.

 

 

KenS

Fundamentally, New Brunswick is not very different than Nova Scotia... and the same things were said about here, before 1997.

Nova Scotia has some bigger demographic pockets that had the characteristic of being fertile territory before the NDP vote was anything more than single digits and low to mid-teens. But NB has those too- and it has the huge swath of Acadian population. [Yes they dont vote NDP now, but the demographics and value orientations are favourable.]

Frankly, a lot of it has to do with making the breakthrough to credibility. And there is no magic recipe for that- you just have to do it [and maybe, likely, not according to plan... just persistent application].

And having a 1 seat beachead gets you love, but zero credibility as a party than can win. Even 2-3 seats for 3-4 elections straight did not do it for the NSNDP.... which is why Alexa quit. She knew she had done a good job, but she also knew that it just was not working for getting further. [Ironically, her movement to the national scene provided the final push that set the 1998 NSNDP wave in motion. Doubly ironic as it turned out, since after towing in those Atlantic MPs into office in her wake, she never really fitted as a national leader.]

KenS

If Dominic wants to run federally, he is still best off in Fredricton. There is nowhere in NS he would fit that the NDP would have more than a faint hope of winning.

Caissa

Proportional Representation would solve the problem of  proper representation in NB.

terrytowel

In the last election a few months ago, wasn't there ANY riding Dominic would have been a good fit for?

What about the provincial ridings that over-lap the federal riding of Yvon Godin's?

Wasn't there one in there that Dominic could have run in? Using Yvon list of committed supporters?

Caissa

To answer your questions in order: no, no,no,no.

terrytowel

Why not? Why couldn't Yvon campaign with Dominic in a prov riding that overlaps his fed riding?

Caissa

Sure let's parachute an Anglophone into this primarily Francophone riding.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gloucester_County,_New_Brunswick

KenS

The question was where Dominic could run federally. Not about where he could best run provincialy. That is done. Finished.

Pierre C yr

KenS wrote:

Fundamentally, New Brunswick is not very different than Nova Scotia... and the same things were said about here, before 1997.

Nova Scotia has some bigger demographic pockets that had the characteristic of being fertile territory before the NDP vote was anything more than single digits and low to mid-teens. But NB has those too- and it has the huge swath of Acadian population. [Yes they dont vote NDP now, but the demographics and value orientations are favourable.]

Frankly, a lot of it has to do with making the breakthrough to credibility. And there is no magic recipe for that- you just have to do it [and maybe, likely, not according to plan... just persistent application].

And having a 1 seat beachead gets you love, but zero credibility as a party than can win. Even 2-3 seats for 3-4 elections straight did not do it for the NSNDP.... which is why Alexa quit. She knew she had done a good job, but she also knew that it just was not working for getting further. [Ironically, her movement to the national scene provided the final push that set the 1998 NSNDP wave in motion. Doubly ironic as it turned out, since after towing in those Atlantic MPs into office in her wake, she never really fitted as a national leader.]

 

What I see Ken is the occasional candidates like Godin and Weir who won wby the strength of their personalities and long deep local roots. People seem to quickly return to their voting patterns once those  people are gone.

KenS

Godin for sure did not get elected the first time because of his personal characteristics. There was a backlash against the Liberals and the 'Alexa wave'. Godin came in on that.

The rest- getting re-elected- he did on his own. And that has as much to do with basic organizational smarts as it does with winning character.

While it is true that is a 'Godin seat' not an NDP seat... when he retires, if the NDP is carrying a sufficiently strong regional and national campaigm, the new candidate will have a strong advantage.

I dont think you are sufficiently paying attention to the point that it is a different dynamic when the NDP has credibility. [Simply, that the average voter sees them as having a good shot at winning.]

When the NDP has not reahced that credibility threshold, then, yes, of course it LOOKS like people are just permanently stuck in voting patterns. Again, there almost nothing to distinguish NB and NS demographics, or "culture."

 

How does the NDP break through that glass ceiling credibility threshold?

That is the $64 question.

terrytowel

I still DO NOT understand why the Prov NDP could target a riding that overlaps Godin Fed riding and have Godin campaign with Cardy. And use his lists to target voters.

PLEASE explain to my why that is not possible.

Is because an Anglophone could never get elected in a primarily Francophone riding? Is that the reason?

Pierre C yr

KenS wrote:

Godin for sure did not get elected the first time because of his personal characteristics. There was a backlash against the Liberals and the 'Alexa wave'. Godin came in on that.

The rest- getting re-elected- he did on his own. And that has as much to do with basic organizational smarts as it does with winning character.

While it is true that is a 'Godin seat' not an NDP seat... when he retires, if the NDP is carrying a sufficiently strong regional and national campaigm, the new candidate will have a strong advantage.

I dont think you are sufficiently paying attention to the point that it is a different dynamic when the NDP has credibility. [Simply, that the average voter sees them as having a good shot at winning.]

When the NDP has not reahced that credibility threshold, then, yes, of course it LOOKS like people are just permanently stuck in voting patterns. Again, there almost nothing to distinguish NB and NS demographics, or "culture."

 

How does the NDP break through that glass ceiling credibility threshold?

That is the $64 question.

 

Well that to me again points out that the average voter isnt voting for the right reasons. As an informed vote. If they dont vote provincially for the NDP simply because most dont think they can win then we have a real problem here.

 

 

lagatta

Yes, I was wondering about Yvon Godin, who is a very prominent member of the Federal NDP caucus; he was the whip and now the official languages critic.

KenS

@ Pierre:

It is what it is. And it is a phenomena that the NDP has had to overcome everywhere it is now in contention.

It is not easy. But neither is it stuck that way.

@ TT:

You have already heard the answer: the NDP was not pursuing a beachhead strategy of get Cardy elected wherever you can. We already know you dont agree with that.

Whether your idea would work is kind of moot, since it would not fit with the strategy the NDP chose. But I dont see that all things considered it would have had any better chance, assuming Godin would be willing.

You have such an all or none way of stating things. It would not be that a parachute Anglophone "could never" get elected in a francophone riding. But it certainly would not be a plus.

KenS

Electoral politics is not some kind of machinery where you just pull the levers when you've got a strong local organization.

Yvon Godin got to his standing in the riding by doing things that have nothing to do with "here's this guy. I want you to vote for him in the provincial election." He could do that if he wants, and it would never do harm to his standing. But people not immersed in politics- which is most people- might see it as a bit puzzling.

Stockholm

For one thiing Godin's riding is 99% francophone and Cardy is an anglophonbe who speaks heavily accented French. You cannot run an Anglo in a 100% French-speaking part of the province and expect people to vote for that person.

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

For one thiing Godin's riding is 99% francophone and Cardy is an anglophonbe who speaks heavily accented French. You cannot run an Anglo in a 100% French-speaking part of the province and expect people to vote for that person.

Thank you Stock

At least someone answered my question.

The next NB NDP leader had to be 100% Francophone to take advantage of Godin popularity in his riding. & build off that.

Yes KenS said that strategy has already been tried and done (Weir). But they tried the other way, and it hasn't worked.

They need to go back and build upon one seat.

Greens have done that and look at them. Compared to the NDP who can only participate from the visitors gallery.

Bottom line the Greens are the third party in the legislature. And the NDP is on the outside looking in.

KenS

Yep.

And one seat is better than nothing.

But as a strategy for working to build a credible party presence, the beachead approach is still only a proven failure.

The other strategy has only not succeeded on the first attempt.

carpenter

You guys make some excellent points, but don't forget the 2010 NB provincial campaign where Roger Duguay, NB NDP leader ran in a provincial riding within Godin's Federal Riding. He was a former priest, well known and respected, lived in the riding. He couldn't beat the incumbent, and many locals commented that they needed to have an MLA on the side of Government. He was bilingual

Robo

Roger Duguay did not live in the riding he ran in in 2010.  He ran in the most southeasterly part of Godin's federal riding (Tracadie-Sheila), but lived in the first riding to the south of Godin's federal riding, Miramichi Bay-Neguac, the riding in which he ran in 2006.  He ran in 2010 against one of only two Tory incumbents in Acadie, in a campaign in which the Tories were on the rise and voters wanted to get the Liberals out of power.  His home riding had a Liberal incumbent -- the benefit of hindsight now makes me think Duguay should have run in his home riding, despite it being more linguistically mixed than Tracadie-Sheila.

David Young

Does this mean that Dominic has indicated that he's looking at running in the next federal election?

 

Adam T

This probably won't help, but look on the brightside: at least he didn't lost to John Turmel!

KenS

If Dominic is interested in running federally, he would not have indicsted that yet.

Just people speculating.

Caissa

I think it is unclear who will be running in Saint John federally next time. I have heard some rumors on the Fundy Royal candidate.

swallow

Terry, you might want to read up on Roger Duguay - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Duguay 

carpenter

Agreed, swallow. Raoger did indeed run in Tracadie- Sheila in 2010. He did live there then, owned and still owns a house there, and still lives there.

Robo is correct that he ran in Miramichi in 2006. He chose not to run in Miramichi in 2010  precisely for the reason you suggested.