2017 Polls

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Pondering
2017 Polls

TBC

 

Pondering

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7554

 if an election were held tomorrow of decided voters:

four in ten (41%) decided voters would vote for the Liberal Party, while three in ten (30%) would vote for the Conservatives. The NDP (19%), Bloc (5%) and other parties (5%) are well behind on a national basis. Three in ten (29%) Canadians either are not sure (23%) about who they would vote for or they wouldn’t vote/would spoil/not choose any (6%).

Liberals 41%

Conservatives 30%

NDP 19%

Bloc 5%

other 5%

unsure 23%

not vote or spoil 6%

  • Six in ten Canadians (59%) say they approve of the performance of the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau (13% strongly / 45% somewhat), while four in ten (41%) disapprove (19% strongly / 22% somewhat). While the Liberal government’s approval ratings remain strong overall, they have softened somewhat over the past year (from 66% in March 2016, to 62% in October 2016, to 61% in December 2016, to 59% now).

 

Pondering

From the same poll:

Among decided voters, the vast majority tend to say they’d vote for their current choice no matter who’s leading the Conservatives (Tories will vote Tory, Liberals will vote Liberal, and so on). Yet, the survey reveals that many current NDP voters say they’d vote Conservative if O’Leary were leading the CPC.

In fact, two in ten (22%) current NDP voters appear poised to change their vote to Conservative if O’Leary wins the leadership race. Moreover, the proportion of Canadians who are undecided on their vote choice decreases when O’Leary is the leader (23% don’t know of their vote choice if O’Leary leads the party, 29% if Leitch leads it, and 30% if Bernier leads it), suggesting that the rise in support for the Tories under an O’Leary leadership comes both from undecided and some NDP voters, although this could be temporary given the NDP are also looking for a new leader.

 

Mighty Middle

New mumbers for Toronto from Mainstreet/Postmedia

All of Toronto

Liberals – 60%
Conservatives – 26%
NDP – 8%
Green – 6%

Municipal Breakdown

Etobicoke

Liberals – 53%
Conservatives – 36%
NDP – 4%
Green – 7%

Scarborough

Liberals – 56%
Conservatives – 26%
NDP – 11%
Green – 7%

Downtown

Liberals – 73%
Conservatives – 16%
NDP – 5%
Green – 6%

North York

Liberals – 54%
Conservatives – 32%
NDP –10%
Green – 4%

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,103 Torontonians on February 21, 2017 through Chimera IVR. Landline and Cell lines were included. Responses were weighed based on the 2011 Census.The margin of error for survey results is ± 2.14 percentage points, 19 times out of 20

https://www.scribd.com/document/340703366/Mainstreet-Toronto-February-20...

Cody87

Good to see the Liberal numbers are coming down since this time last year. I wonder what's the reason for that.

I am REALLY surprised that O'Leary is getting support from some New Democrats and undecideds. I haven't paid much attention to any of the leadership candidates, but my impression was that he was one of the more Conservative candidates.

Off topic, but on the new forums can you edit the first post?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Numbers coming down? Judging by the 2 polls cited,they have a huge lead and still have majority numbers

 

Cody87

40% is less than 50%. I said coming down, not low. Yes they still have majority numbers under FPTP with 3 major parties but not by nearly the margin they did a year ago - last year the polls indicated they would have won a majority of votes, not just seats.