2017 Polls

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Pondering
2017 Polls

TBC

 

Pondering

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7554

 if an election were held tomorrow of decided voters:

four in ten (41%) decided voters would vote for the Liberal Party, while three in ten (30%) would vote for the Conservatives. The NDP (19%), Bloc (5%) and other parties (5%) are well behind on a national basis. Three in ten (29%) Canadians either are not sure (23%) about who they would vote for or they wouldn’t vote/would spoil/not choose any (6%).

Liberals 41%

Conservatives 30%

NDP 19%

Bloc 5%

other 5%

unsure 23%

not vote or spoil 6%

  • Six in ten Canadians (59%) say they approve of the performance of the Liberal government under Justin Trudeau (13% strongly / 45% somewhat), while four in ten (41%) disapprove (19% strongly / 22% somewhat). While the Liberal government’s approval ratings remain strong overall, they have softened somewhat over the past year (from 66% in March 2016, to 62% in October 2016, to 61% in December 2016, to 59% now).

 

Pondering

From the same poll:

Among decided voters, the vast majority tend to say they’d vote for their current choice no matter who’s leading the Conservatives (Tories will vote Tory, Liberals will vote Liberal, and so on). Yet, the survey reveals that many current NDP voters say they’d vote Conservative if O’Leary were leading the CPC.

In fact, two in ten (22%) current NDP voters appear poised to change their vote to Conservative if O’Leary wins the leadership race. Moreover, the proportion of Canadians who are undecided on their vote choice decreases when O’Leary is the leader (23% don’t know of their vote choice if O’Leary leads the party, 29% if Leitch leads it, and 30% if Bernier leads it), suggesting that the rise in support for the Tories under an O’Leary leadership comes both from undecided and some NDP voters, although this could be temporary given the NDP are also looking for a new leader.

 

Mighty Middle

New mumbers for Toronto from Mainstreet/Postmedia

All of Toronto

Liberals – 60%
Conservatives – 26%
NDP – 8%
Green – 6%

Municipal Breakdown

Etobicoke

Liberals – 53%
Conservatives – 36%
NDP – 4%
Green – 7%

Scarborough

Liberals – 56%
Conservatives – 26%
NDP – 11%
Green – 7%

Downtown

Liberals – 73%
Conservatives – 16%
NDP – 5%
Green – 6%

North York

Liberals – 54%
Conservatives – 32%
NDP –10%
Green – 4%

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,103 Torontonians on February 21, 2017 through Chimera IVR. Landline and Cell lines were included. Responses were weighed based on the 2011 Census.The margin of error for survey results is ± 2.14 percentage points, 19 times out of 20

https://www.scribd.com/document/340703366/Mainstreet-Toronto-February-20...

Cody87

Good to see the Liberal numbers are coming down since this time last year. I wonder what's the reason for that.

I am REALLY surprised that O'Leary is getting support from some New Democrats and undecideds. I haven't paid much attention to any of the leadership candidates, but my impression was that he was one of the more Conservative candidates.

Off topic, but on the new forums can you edit the first post?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Numbers coming down? Judging by the 2 polls cited,they have a huge lead and still have majority numbers

 

Cody87

40% is less than 50%. I said coming down, not low. Yes they still have majority numbers under FPTP with 3 major parties but not by nearly the margin they did a year ago - last year the polls indicated they would have won a majority of votes, not just seats.

josh

The latest weekly Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 42.5 per cent support, the Conservatives at 29.2 per cent, the NDP at 16.1 per cent, the Greens at 5.2 per cent and the BQ at 4.8 per cent

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2017/03/28/federal-liberals-43-conservatives-29-ndp-16-greens-5-nanos/#.WNpcfmczXbh 

 

NorthReport
mark_alfred

Re: Post #9:

The link in post #9 doesn't work for me.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Cody87 wrote:
I am REALLY surprised that O'Leary is getting support from some New Democrats and undecideds. I haven't paid much attention to any of the leadership candidates, but my impression was that he was one of the more Conservative candidates.

O'leary is liberal on social issues, and is a celebrity. With this in mind, there are two things that are likely leading to this response.  One is that some current NDP supporters and undecided are anti-Liberal  voters who are liberal on social issues but quite right-wing economically. Folks who won't support the Conservatives if they lean conservative on social issues, but are fine with O'leary's combination of social liberalism and hard right economic policy.

The other factor is O'leary' capitalist celebrity status. There are a lot of naive people out there who are susceptible to being conned by the idea of a CEO savior who will magically solve all our problems. [sarcasm]The idea that people as successful as Trump and O'leary must know what they're doing, so there's no way they could ever screw things up like other politicians.[/sarcasm]

Cody87

Thanks Left Turn. I guess that Conservatives supporting O'Leary would need to consider if electing a "Trump lite" to their party leadership is likely to be wise by 2019 once we've really had a chance to see what trouble Trump gets up to. Certainly if the Trump experiment fails a similar pitch is unlikely to work here. From the sounds of it, O'Leary may end up dead in the water just by association.

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

Poll: Canadians deeply concerned by growing inequality

Of Canadians surveyed, 73 per cent said their and their family’s economic situation had stayed the same or gotten worse over the past two years, while 68 per cent did not expect it to improve over the next two years. The poll, conducted by Strategic Communications, was made public at the Broadbent Institute’s Progress Summit in Ottawa.

Asked who benefits from today’s economy, 67 per cent fingered the wealthiest Canadians. Despite the Trudeau government’s rhetorical focus on the middle class, only 11 per cent of respondents identified the middle class as benefiting from today’s economy.

Eighty-two per cent of Canadians think the gap between the rich and everyone else is growing, and 84 per cent think that’s a problem.

Asked who is to blame for growing income inequality, around half of respondents identified a tax system that benefits richer Canadians, as well as government policies that favour big business at the expense of everyone else.....