2017 Polls

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NorthReport

NDP once again at 19% in latest poll.

 

Sean in Ottawa

This return to 19% could be due to one or both of two things:

1) the leadership race, ending and Singh's victory.

2) A return to parliament. The NDP was about 19% when parliament broke for the summer and then sank during the summer. The Conservatives increased during that time. The NDP has recovered to pre-summer numbers and the Conservatives have been reduced to their pre summer numbers.

The question is where we go from here. I have said that the efficient floof for NDP support that used to be at 18% or so is now closer to 23-24 due to the vote being spread out more. This recovery to 19% could be on the path to reaching those numbers.

A recovery for the NDP, even at the loss of the Liberals may not be good news for the Conservatives if this distribution allows NDP support to concentrate. With the FPTP system you cannot draw absolute conclusions from vote totals. If the Liberals lost votes to the NDP in NDP friendly areas, it is possible that the Conservatives could lose seats as much as the Liberals.

Singh's position on pipelines may provide the NDP with a better position in BC at the expense of the Greens. This would be a problem for both Conservatives and Liberals in that province. It also will do no harm in Quebec which understands the same issue. In cold terms these are two places the NDP has to do well. Ontario may not care either way.

Sean in Ottawa

DP

R.E.Wood

38 Con -- 36 Liberal -- 14 NDP

"Support for the NDP has remained steady, despite the fact the party elected Jagmeet Singh as its new leader on Oct. 1. The NDP was at 14 per cent in mid-August, 15 per cent in September, and 14 per cent in the latest poll last week."

... "Despite their dip in support, the latest poll numbers would give the Liberals a minority government, due to vote distribution. The Liberals would secure 164 of 338 seats, the Conservatives 148, the NDP 15, the Bloc 11 and the Greens two seats, Forum says."

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/11/13/dip-in-popularity-continu...

NorthReport

40% of Canadians want Morneau gone

Mighty Middle

NorthReport wrote:

40% of Canadians want Morneau gone

But then what does the other 60% say?

NorthReport

The other 60% say Morneau is being investigated by the Ethics Czar.

R.E.Wood

The latest Nanos:  Liberals 38.3 ... Conservatives 30.9 ... NDP 17.5 percent

Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 45.0 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (21.1%), Singh (8.8%) and May (5.2%).

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2017/11/14/liberals-38-conservatives-3...

Mighty Middle

New polling from Abacus

Canada

Liberal - 40%

Conservative - 32%

NDP - 18%

Green - 6%

Bloc - 4%

BC

NDP - 33%

Liberal - 32%

Conservative - 21%

Green - 14%

AB

Conservative - 62%

Liberal - 20%

NDP - 16%

Green - 2%

SK/MB

Conservative - 41%

Liberal - 31%

NDP - 21%

Green - 6%

ON

Liberal - 43%

Conservative - 37%

NDP - 15%

Green - 4%

QC

Liberal - 44%

Bloc - 18%

Conservative - 17%

NDP - 17%

Green - 4%

ATL

Liberal - 60%

Conservative - 16%

NDP - 11%

Green - 13%

Approval Rating Of Leader

BC

Trudeau - 44%

Singh - 28%

Scheer - 16%

Prairies

Scheer - 38%

Trudeau - 34%

Singh - 21%

ON

Trudeau - 47%

Singh - 25%

Scheer - 23%

QC

Trudeau - 54%

Singh - 21%

Scheer - 16%

ATL

Trudeau - 67%

Singh - 15%

Scheer - 10%

http://abacusdata.ca/liberal-slippage-halts-with-an-uptick-on-some-key-i...

NorthReport

It would be helpful if the pollster's political connectionss are listed with their way too frequently biased polling results.

We already know about Forum's Liberal connections so for example who owns Abacus and do they have any connections ie relatives etc working for a political party?

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

It would be helpful if the pollster's political connectionss are listed with their way too frequently biased polling results.

We already know about Forum's Liberal connections so for example who owns Abacus and do they have any connections ie relatives etc working for a political party?

The Chair is Bruce Anderson -- you know him from the At Issue panel:

Bruce Anderson is the chairman of polling firm Abacus Data, a regular member of the At Issue panel on CBC’s The National and a founding partner of i2 Ideas and Issues Advertising. He has done polls for Liberal and Conservative politicians but no longer does any partisan work. Other members of his family have worked for Conservative and Liberal politicians, and a daughter currently works for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. He writes a weekly digital column for The Globe and Mail.

His comments on the At Issue Panel have been generally balanced. He was with Decima previously. I don't think he is unethical and I would not see his polling as biased.

brookmere

Here is all the polling prior to the 2015 election. You can see for yourself that Abacus did not show a bias against the NDP. Their last poll before the election put the NDP at 24%. They also put the NDP in first place in a number of polls previously.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Cody87

So we can conclude that so far, Scheer is less popular than Singh (and also more unpopular), except in the Conservative heartland, even though the Conservatives historically have been much stronger than the NDP. And digging into the details shows Scheer is also more unpopular, so he's going to have to focus on his image or be a drag on his party and policies. Even in the praries Singh is not significantly more unpopular than Scheer!

But this is important:

As shouldn't be surprising, many voters are either neutral or don't know enough for both Singh and Scheer. So comparing their favorability is not really fair, when for both Singh and Scheer around 60% of voters haven't made any kind of decision on them. Consider that you could with equal methodology report just the negative impressions and "show" that Trudeau is the least popular leader in half the regions. How could he be the most popular and least popular at the same time? To avoid this fallacy it's necessary to at least exclude the "don't know enough" voters, but probably also some portion of the neutral voters for the new leaders. Once you do that the numbers are much more competitive (at least west of Quebec).

Anyway, it's bad news for Scheer and very encouraging for Singh. I hope Singh can do well in Quebec, I think he'll do fine in Ontario based on these numbers. Scheer needs to play for Ontario for any chance at forming even a minority government. I think Scheer is more likely to lead the Conservatives to third party status than first party. For Singh to lead the NDP to government in 2019 will require some luck and lots of skill, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest to see 2011 numbers at least for the NDP come 2019.

NorthReport

Trudeau is down 8% in the polls from a year ago

Pondering

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/11/17/most-canadians-rate-justin-trudeaus-eco...

Canada may have the fastest-growing economy in the G7, but that doesn't mean Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government will get the credit, according to a recent poll.

Just one-quarter of Canadians would describe Trudeau's economic performance as good or or very good, according to a Nanos Research poll conducted for Bloomberg News.

More than a third of Canadians — 36 per cent — would rate his performance as poor or very poor. Another 36 per cent would mark it as average.

Concerns about housing, rising interest rates, and income inequality may be to blame. More than eight in 10 Canadians are concerned or somewhat concerned about the impact of higher interest rates on their ability to pay down their debts.

That's a really interesting stat. The economy is the number one issue for most voters. Doesn't mean they think anyone else would do better. I think Harper had very high marks on the economy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/11/20/liberal-ministers-unknown-to-mos...

Though she didn't have the awareness scores of her defence or transport ministry counterparts, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland had the strongest approval rating in the survey.

Forty-six per cent of respondents approved of her performance, while 23 per cent were not impressed. Freeland has been a central figure in Canada's ongoing NAFTA renegotiation marathon with the U.S. and Mexico, and has been playing a lead role in charting the government's relationship with the unpredictable administration of President Donald Trump.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

It's clear Canadians are unaware of the fact that Canada's reputation in the world has gone up tenfold since thed Harper nightmare. Even among Americans,Canada and Trudeau have become quite popular. If Canadians decide to shit the bed and re-elect a Conservative government next election,the world will be confused and Canadians will prove themselves as losers.

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