2018 polls 2

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MegB
2018 polls 2

Continued from here.

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bekayne

New Pollara poll for MacLean's (taken Sept 17-20)

Lib  40%

Con  34%

NDP  12%

Grn    7%

PPC   2%

BQ  (15% in PQ)

https://www.pollara.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Pollara-FedPoli_Fall2...

JeffWells

Shockingly bad numbers for the NDP. That's a very thin 12%. Weak in every region, and Bernier nearly a preferred choice for PM over Singh.

Anyway, I guess I'm in the 1% supporting some other party now, except I don't believe that party exists yet.

jerrym

Week ending October 5th

Liberal 37.3%

Conservative 31.1%

NDP 16.2%

Green 6.7%

Bloc 3.8%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Political-Package-2018-10...

 

JKR

Provincial Liberal parties losing power in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick seems to have enhanced the popularity of the federal Liberal government.

Pondering

JKR wrote:
Provincial Liberal parties losing power in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick seems to have enhanced the popularity of the federal Liberal government.

Since following politics more closely one surprise was realising how much weight factors other than platform matter in winning elections. 

The CAQ is in power largely because the Liberals have been in power for 15 years and they are also in power federally. It was a change election. Trudeau also benefited from 2015 being a change election. I still marvel over 2015, that all three parties were in first place in the months leading up to the election. Had it not been a change election I think Harper would have won again. Had Layton not passed away I think he would have beaten Trudeau and I think he would have caught the Corbyn/Sanders wave. 

Trudeau benefits in contrast to Trump and Ford. 

He has really messed up on the pipeline file. He's managed to alienate everyone. Canadians did not want him to buy the pipeline. Last I heard they are trying to figure out a way to give it to First Nations; a gift I hope they will refuse. I think were it not for factors surrounding him, including Scheer, he would not be doing nearly as well. 

Sean in Ottawa

Canadians may hate all their options going into the next election. Makes the result quite unpredictable - especially if one option is suddenly liked during the campaign.

It could be a low turnout and the base of one party could prevail.

While I think that Trudeau has the advantage, in such an election the unpopular opposition could win and that could be scary -- it could also win with an unpredicted balace going to Bernier. This would be the worst possible result. Enough may think this that Trudeau gets an even bigger majority.

There is no data set now that can predict this.

I think the NDP will try and in some cases fail to save the furniture.

Mighty Middle

68% of NDP supporters say Justin Trudeau government has achieved as much as possible in negotiating on behalf of Canada

bekayne

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/trudeau-still-canadia...

In a Nanos Research poll conducted for Bloomberg, 39 percent of Canadians say Trudeau is the best for managing ties with the U.S. president. Another 22 percent say none of the leaders are best suited, while 21 percent chose Andrew Scheer, a conservative who is Trudeau’s top rival.

...

Another five percent of respondents said Maxime Bernier -- a former Conservative lawmaker who quit Scheer’s Conservatives and is launching his own populist party -- was best for dealing with the U.S. President. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who is her party’s only federal lawmaker, was chosen by three percent of respondents.

Just one percent of respondents picked Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democrats, who have the third-most lawmakers in Canada’s House of Commons and regularly poll in third-place in Canada’s multiparty system.

“For a party that’s in the teens, to have your leader at 1 percent, it means that even in your own tribe, committed NDP supporters do not believe Jagmeet Singh is the person to best manage the relationship with the president of the United States,” Nanos said.

jerrym

Nanos Poll Released October 16th

Liberal 37.1%

Conservative 31.4% 

NDP 16.1%

Bloc 3.7%

Green 7.2%

People's 1.3%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Political-Package-2018-10...

 

Pondering

https://globalnews.ca/news/4556399/federal-election-2019-trudeau-singh/

Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto politics professor, agreed that Singh isn’t doing well and that’s not really surprising. But he said one year is a long time to change things — especially considering it’s what happens during the election campaign that really matters.

“During the election campaign, Jagmeet Singh is going to get a lot of coverage. The fact that he isn’t well-known now doesn’t mean very much,” he told Global News.

A more interesting note:

Thirty-seven per cent of Canadians said they would “never” vote for the Tories, compared to 49 per cent who said they would not vote for the Liberals and 50 per cent who ruled out the NDP.

The conservatives have the largest voting pool. 

JKR

On the other hand, this week's Nanos poll indicates that 52% of voters would consider voting for the Liberals, 44% would consider voting for the Conservatives, 36% would considered voting for the NDP, 30% would consider voting for the Greens, and 11% would consider voting for the new People's Party. In Quebec, 26% would consider voting for the BQ. So Nanos indicates that the Liberals currently have the largest voting pool.

NorthReport

Precisely!

Quote:

Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto politics professor, agreed that Singh isn’t doing well and that’s not really surprising. But he said one year is a long time to change things — especially considering it’s what happens during the election campaign that really matters.

“During the election campaign, Jagmeet Singh is going to get a lot of coverage. The fact that he isn’t well-known now doesn’t mean very much,” he told Global News.

“People often pick someone completely new [to vote for] because they were all of the sudden impressed by them in an election debate.”

He noted that the added attention could be a good or bad thing, but it’s too early to tell.

“All the time between now and August is irrelevant,” Wiseman said.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4556399/federal-election-2019-trudeau-singh/