2018 polls 2

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MegB
2018 polls 2

Continued from here.

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bekayne

New Pollara poll for MacLean's (taken Sept 17-20)

Lib  40%

Con  34%

NDP  12%

Grn    7%

PPC   2%

BQ  (15% in PQ)

https://www.pollara.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Pollara-FedPoli_Fall2...

JeffWells

Shockingly bad numbers for the NDP. That's a very thin 12%. Weak in every region, and Bernier nearly a preferred choice for PM over Singh.

Anyway, I guess I'm in the 1% supporting some other party now, except I don't believe that party exists yet.

jerrym

Week ending October 5th

Liberal 37.3%

Conservative 31.1%

NDP 16.2%

Green 6.7%

Bloc 3.8%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Political-Package-2018-10...

 

JKR

Provincial Liberal parties losing power in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick seems to have enhanced the popularity of the federal Liberal government.

Pondering

JKR wrote:
Provincial Liberal parties losing power in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick seems to have enhanced the popularity of the federal Liberal government.

Since following politics more closely one surprise was realising how much weight factors other than platform matter in winning elections. 

The CAQ is in power largely because the Liberals have been in power for 15 years and they are also in power federally. It was a change election. Trudeau also benefited from 2015 being a change election. I still marvel over 2015, that all three parties were in first place in the months leading up to the election. Had it not been a change election I think Harper would have won again. Had Layton not passed away I think he would have beaten Trudeau and I think he would have caught the Corbyn/Sanders wave. 

Trudeau benefits in contrast to Trump and Ford. 

He has really messed up on the pipeline file. He's managed to alienate everyone. Canadians did not want him to buy the pipeline. Last I heard they are trying to figure out a way to give it to First Nations; a gift I hope they will refuse. I think were it not for factors surrounding him, including Scheer, he would not be doing nearly as well. 

Sean in Ottawa

Canadians may hate all their options going into the next election. Makes the result quite unpredictable - especially if one option is suddenly liked during the campaign.

It could be a low turnout and the base of one party could prevail.

While I think that Trudeau has the advantage, in such an election the unpopular opposition could win and that could be scary -- it could also win with an unpredicted balace going to Bernier. This would be the worst possible result. Enough may think this that Trudeau gets an even bigger majority.

There is no data set now that can predict this.

I think the NDP will try and in some cases fail to save the furniture.

Mighty Middle

68% of NDP supporters say Justin Trudeau government has achieved as much as possible in negotiating on behalf of Canada

bekayne

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-16/trudeau-still-canadia...

In a Nanos Research poll conducted for Bloomberg, 39 percent of Canadians say Trudeau is the best for managing ties with the U.S. president. Another 22 percent say none of the leaders are best suited, while 21 percent chose Andrew Scheer, a conservative who is Trudeau’s top rival.

...

Another five percent of respondents said Maxime Bernier -- a former Conservative lawmaker who quit Scheer’s Conservatives and is launching his own populist party -- was best for dealing with the U.S. President. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who is her party’s only federal lawmaker, was chosen by three percent of respondents.

Just one percent of respondents picked Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democrats, who have the third-most lawmakers in Canada’s House of Commons and regularly poll in third-place in Canada’s multiparty system.

“For a party that’s in the teens, to have your leader at 1 percent, it means that even in your own tribe, committed NDP supporters do not believe Jagmeet Singh is the person to best manage the relationship with the president of the United States,” Nanos said.

jerrym

Nanos Poll Released October 16th

Liberal 37.1%

Conservative 31.4% 

NDP 16.1%

Bloc 3.7%

Green 7.2%

People's 1.3%

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Political-Package-2018-10...

 

Pondering

https://globalnews.ca/news/4556399/federal-election-2019-trudeau-singh/

Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto politics professor, agreed that Singh isn’t doing well and that’s not really surprising. But he said one year is a long time to change things — especially considering it’s what happens during the election campaign that really matters.

“During the election campaign, Jagmeet Singh is going to get a lot of coverage. The fact that he isn’t well-known now doesn’t mean very much,” he told Global News.

A more interesting note:

Thirty-seven per cent of Canadians said they would “never” vote for the Tories, compared to 49 per cent who said they would not vote for the Liberals and 50 per cent who ruled out the NDP.

The conservatives have the largest voting pool. 

JKR

On the other hand, this week's Nanos poll indicates that 52% of voters would consider voting for the Liberals, 44% would consider voting for the Conservatives, 36% would considered voting for the NDP, 30% would consider voting for the Greens, and 11% would consider voting for the new People's Party. In Quebec, 26% would consider voting for the BQ. So Nanos indicates that the Liberals currently have the largest voting pool.

NorthReport

Precisely!

Quote:

Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto politics professor, agreed that Singh isn’t doing well and that’s not really surprising. But he said one year is a long time to change things — especially considering it’s what happens during the election campaign that really matters.

“During the election campaign, Jagmeet Singh is going to get a lot of coverage. The fact that he isn’t well-known now doesn’t mean very much,” he told Global News.

“People often pick someone completely new [to vote for] because they were all of the sudden impressed by them in an election debate.”

He noted that the added attention could be a good or bad thing, but it’s too early to tell.

“All the time between now and August is irrelevant,” Wiseman said.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4556399/federal-election-2019-trudeau-singh/

NorthReport

Hopefully Trudeau will be reduced to a minority for reneging on PR and not addressing global warming

A year away from election day and no-name Scheer is right behind celebrity Trudeau

Libs 36%

Cons 35%

NDP 20%

Others including Greens < 5%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4564813/justin-trudeau-andrew-scheer-close-ip...

NorthReport

Conservative leader predicts a 'nasty' election campaign in 2019

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/andrew-scheer-one-year-to-election-1.48...

gadar

Conservatives are always nasty, so Scheer Nonsense is just giving people a heads up.

gadar

NorthReport wrote:

Hopefully Trudeau will be reduced to a minority for reneging on PR and not addressing global warming

A year away from election day and no-name Scheer is right behind celebrity Trudeau

Libs 36%

Cons 35%

NDP 20%

Others including Greens < 5%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4564813/justin-trudeau-andrew-scheer-close-ip...

Trudeau is finished, thats the only hope liberals are left with, a minority. Not going to happen. Its PM Sneer time. 

josh

Nanos:

 

 

Liberals 39 Conservatives 28, NDP 19, Green 7, Bloc 3, People’s 1

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-10-26-Political-Report-Slides.pdf

Mighty Middle

josh wrote:

Nanos:

Liberals 39

Conservatives 28

NDP 19

Green 7

Bloc 3

People’s 1

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/2018-10-26-Political-Report-Slides.pdf

gadar wrote:

Trudeau is finished, thats the only hope liberals are left with, a minority. Not going to happen. Its PM Sneer time.

Want to try that again?

gadar

Happy to oblige.

Trudeau is finished, thats the only hope liberals are left with, a minority. Not going to happen. Its PM Sneer time. Strong leadership with a smile (if you know what I mean).

But this sentiment is expressed around here in different words all the time, you have to just read between the lines. I just tried to put it in simple words without hiding my true intentions/wishes.

Mighty Middle

gadar must be the resident Conservative on this board.

MegB

Mighty Middle wrote:

gadar must be the resident Conservative on this board.

Don't bait please. Taking a position that Scheer is likely to win the next election is not in any sense an endorsement of the Conservative party.

Mighty Middle

MegB wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

gadar must be the resident Conservative on this board.

Don't bait please. Taking a position that Scheer is likely to win the next election is not in any sense an endorsement of the Conservative party.

Ok Meg, my apologies.

NorthReport

Instead of repeating Nanos polling every day or second day, if we take the average of the most recent poll from the eleven most recent pollsters we see the following results

Libs 36%

Cons 35%

NDP 16%

Grns 7%

BQ 4%

bekayne

gadar wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Hopefully Trudeau will be reduced to a minority for reneging on PR and not addressing global warming

A year away from election day and no-name Scheer is right behind celebrity Trudeau

Libs 36%

Cons 35%

NDP 20%

Others including Greens < 5%

https://globalnews.ca/news/4564813/justin-trudeau-andrew-scheer-close-ip...

Trudeau is finished, thats the only hope liberals are left with, a minority. Not going to happen. Its PM Sneer time. 

It's "Andy Pandy"!

 

gadar

NorthReport wrote:

Instead of repeating Nanos polling every day or second day, if we take the average of the most recent poll from the eleven most recent pollsters we see the following results

Libs 36%

Cons 35%

NDP 16%

Grns 7%

BQ 4%

Yeay? Cons are right there, lets pop the champagne. But NDP wont be the official opposition with those numbers. Oh well one cant get everything. PM Sneer is fine for now.

gadar

Oops sorry bekayne, its PM Andy Pandy, well cant be any worse than the fancy socks boy. 

Strong leadership with a smile.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Instead of repeating Nanos polling every day or second day, if we take the average of the most recent poll from the eleven most recent pollsters we see the following results

Libs 36%

Cons 35%

NDP 16%

Grns 7%

BQ 4%

If we include all the polls taken during the last seven years the Liberals could be in third place!!!

gadar

The avergage of most recent polls from eleven pollsters

date              pollster             Lib     Con   NDP

26/10          Nanos                 39        28     19

10/10          Forum                 32        41      15

9/10           Ipsos                     36        35      20

1/10            Innovative           38        31       15

20/9           Pollara                  40        34       12

19/9            Abacus                  38         34      17

19/9            DART                     30        38       17

14/9            Campaign Res       36        38       15

26/7           Ekos                         35         32       17

17/7            Mainstreet              39         37         12

14/6           Angus Reid             36          32         16

Avg                                                36         35         17

           

 

Sean in Ottawa

Different ways you can find a median poll -- one is to knock out all the extremes - take the top two and lowest two for each party and you are left with 4 polls that have no outliers.

19/9            Abacus                  38         34      17

14/9            Campaign Res       36        38       15

26/7           Ekos                         35         32       17

14/6           Angus Reid             36          32         16

Average of these four: 36 -34-16

This comes close to the average of all but it is done without risk of the extremes distorting things. If we are looking for an accurate number assuming no changes over time it is another way.

However, if you assume change is happening the first 5 polls give you

35.2-35.4-15.4

The last five give you

37-33.8-16.2

This suggests a slight drop for the Conservatives (around the level of the Bernier party) A slight increase for the Liberals and NDP

 

JKR

Polls taken more than a month ago may be dated because Ford's premiership in Ontario and, to a lesser extent, Legault's premiership in Quebec seem to be helping the popularity of the federal Liberals.

JKR

The latest Ontario provincial poll has the OLP in second place to the OPC's, and the ONDP in third place.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

OPC: 35%

OLP: 32%

ONDP: 25%

OGP: 7%

NorthReport

 

There is a lot to be said for the scientific method

 

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Different ways you can find a median poll -- one is to knock out all the extremes - take the top two and lowest two for each party and you are left with 4 polls that have no outliers.

19/9            Abacus                  38         34      17

14/9            Campaign Res       36        38       15

26/7           Ekos                         35         32       17

14/6           Angus Reid             36          32         16

Average of these four: 36 -34-16

This comes close to the average of all but it is done without risk of the extremes distorting things. If we are looking for an accurate number assuming no changes over time it is another way.

However, if you assume change is happening the first 5 polls give you

35.2-35.4-15.4

The last five give you

37-33.8-16.2

This suggests a slight drop for the Conservatives (around the level of the Bernier party) A slight increase for the Liberals and NDP

 

My post was in response to an earlier post quoting the just the avergaes. I wanted to give a detail breakdown behind those averages. 

And you are right that the polls can be interpreted in different ways and I would like to add that one can find what they are looking for in those numbers if they tried hard enough.

For example I could just claim that Nanos is just noise and fake poll to push an agenda while Forum and Campaign Research are the only two that should be taken seriously.

NorthReport

NDP moving up in latest polling and are now at 20% 

What gives!

L 39%

C 28%

N 20%

 

JKR

Doug Ford's government seems to be hindering the Conservatives and helping the federal Liberals and federal NDP.

Sean in Ottawa

JKR wrote:
Doug Ford's government seems to be hindering the Conservatives and helping the federal Liberals and federal NDP.

Do you have the evidence to prove this? I am wonding about it but have not found definitive answers.

On the one hand we have the Bernier party story, which even if he does not pick up seats or popularity, he makes the Conservative leadership look inept. On the other, there is the Ontario story. Do you have any provincial polls that are recent? I have not found any since the summer ones showing the NDP drop, Liberal rise and the PCs still on top.

Also the Liberals are gaining somewhat at the Cons expense over trade. Trudeau looks great when compared to Trump. The Liberals are losing a little to the NDP on transmountain and perhaps even a little on the byelection games ... Presumptions I make...

I am not saying you are wrong but I am not sure which is the most significant factor -- even if there is a single one.

Also the NDP has gone up and down. We would need to see the NDP out of the old 15-21% range into the mid 20s - like 24-26 to know that this was something really hopeful.

I also wonder what is happening in Quebec. If the new CAQ government gives the province a bad taste from the right -- is there an opening the federal NDP could have to get back in the conversation? -- Can the NDP discuss un avenir progressif?

JKR

Two recent Ontario provincial polls have shown PC numbers going down and Liberal numbers going up to the point where the OLP is just 3 and 2 points behind the PC's. I think this huge change from the end of the Wynne era is impacting the federal scene. I think Wynne's previous government was harming the federal Liberals and Ford's government is now harming the federal Conservatives.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

JKR wrote:
Two recent Ontario provincial polls have shown PC numbers going down and Liberal numbers going up to the point where the OLP is just 3 and 2 points behind the PC's. I think this huge change from the end of the Wynne era is impacting the federal scene. I think Wynne's previous government was harming the federal Liberals and Ford's government is now harming the federal Conservatives.
">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

No progressive should ever want the ONDP to be behind the OLP, though.  No possible good can come of that.

JKR

Ken Burch wrote:

JKR wrote:
Two recent Ontario provincial polls have shown PC numbers going down and Liberal numbers going up to the point where the OLP is just 3 and 2 points behind the PC's. I think this huge change from the end of the Wynne era is impacting the federal scene. I think Wynne's previous government was harming the federal Liberals and Ford's government is now harming the federal Conservatives.
">https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Ontario_general_election

No progressive should ever want the ONDP to be behind the OLP, though.  No possible good can come of that.

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I agree that it is disconcerting that the Ford government's reduced popularity hasn't increased the ONDP's numbers. I think it would be great if Ford's government was relegated to 3rd place in the polls with the ONDP in first place.