2018 Polls

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gadar

But that result wont get the NDP official opposition. Gosh darn it, what a let down.

gadar

Nanos (Jun 15)

Libs 36.86

Cons 32.46

NDP 19.89

Second poll in recent times showing NDP only 12 percent from the official opposition. Mr Singh dont let the bumps on the road deter you, you are closer than some people think or ignore. And considering this is Nanos, NDP is even closer than that. 

Go NDP Go Singh

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTJhNmM3ZWQtYjc5Mi00NTRmLTgyZWItO...

gadar

 In a recent Angus Reid Institute survey, Mr. Trudeau saw a double-digit surge of 12 points in his approval rating since March, thanks to his forceful response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sabre rattling. The poll suggested Mr. Trudeau overwhelmingly captured the sentiment of Canadians when he reaffirmed the plan to retaliate against U.S. tariffs 

https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/06/15/trudeau-owes-surge-approval-trump-b...

Another Liberal cheerleader.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

People will get behind Trudeau on the trade problems, as we kind of have to present a united front to Trump. This does not guarantee Trudeau long-term success. If trade goes down the shitter, no more Ontario seats for the Liberals.

josh
josh
R.E.Wood

Nanos:

LPC 37

CPC 35

NDP 18

Green 7

And Jagmeet Singh is the "preferred choice as PM" by 6.5% of Canadians.  Elizabeth May gets 6.3%. 

https://assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/17061247...

Pondering

Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Six in ten Canadians (59.5%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 40.6 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. More than one in three (36.5%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 35.2 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.6%) said interim Bloc Quebecois leader Mario Beaulieu has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only). 

R.E.Wood

Duplicate. Deleted.

R.E.Wood

Pondering wrote:

Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Six in ten Canadians (59.5%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 40.6 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. More than one in three (36.5%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 35.2 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.6%) said interim Bloc Quebecois leader Mario Beaulieu has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only). 

You quote that like being 20 points behind Trudeau, and only 1.3% above May is a good thing. It isn't. And you ignore the dismally low number of Canadians who actually choose Singh to be PM, which is a massive drag on the party's chances.

ETA: I can also agree that Andrew Scheer has "the qualities of a good political leader", but there's no way in hell I'd ever vote for him. 

josh
progressive17 progressive17's picture

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/trudeau-liberals-hold-significant-lead...

LPC 39.4%

CPC 36.9%

NDP 11.8%

Greens 7%

What can the NDP do to stop its slide into obscurity? At this rate the Greens could overtake them.

josh

Re the NDP, that seems as an outlier.  Most have them in the upper teens or low twenties.

josh
josh
R.E.Wood

Josh, it looks like you mis-quoted the number for the CPC. They are in a statistical tie with the LPC at 37% each. Here are more details:

Ballot – The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Liberals at 36.9  per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 36.6 per cent, the NDP at 17.8 percent, the BQ at 2.3 per cent and the Greens at 5.2 per cent.

Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 38.7 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (27.7%), Singh (6.9%) and May (5.1%).  Twenty per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

Qualities of a Good Political Leader – More than half of Canadians (54.7%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 41.8 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader.  One in three (33.6%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 35.1 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.7%) said interim Bloc Quebecois leader Mario Beaulieu has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only).

I'm quoting more info because it shows the worst results (that I recall) for Singh to date. The party overall is down to 17.8%, the percent of people who select him as their preferred PM is 6.9%, and only 33.6% say that Singh has the qualities of a good political leader. The key to that last figure is that 35.1% say the same about Elizabeth May. 

Sean in Ottawa

josh wrote:

Re the NDP, that seems as an outlier.  Most have them in the upper teens or low twenties.

The upper teens is not guarantee of party status. This is the first time the NDP has been relatively even in most places- including Quebec. This means totals have to be higher to win seats than when the party scored 1-3 points there.

The present numbers probably suggest about 20 seats but only a slight drop and the party could be looking at single digits.

The party needs Singh to make a connection he has not made as yet.

josh
josh
JKR

The LPC seems to have benefited from Ford's election in Ontario.

Mighty Middle

josh
gadar
bekayne

New Nanos:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTJhNmM3ZWQtYjc5Mi00NTRmLTgyZWItO...

Liberals  41.1

Andy Pandy  31.4

NDP  15.0

Green  5.8

BQ  2.5

They haven't started including the Max Party yet.

R.E.Wood

bekayne wrote:

New Nanos:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTJhNmM3ZWQtYjc5Mi00NTRmLTgyZWItO...

Liberals  41.1

Andy Pandy  31.4

NDP  15.0

Green  5.8

BQ  2.5

They haven't started including the Max Party yet.

Also from the latest Nanos, Singh has dropped below Elizabeth May in Canadians' choice for "Preferreed Prime Minister" --- Singh (6.4%) versus May (6.5%), and is almost tied with her in the category of who has "the qualities of a good political leader" --- Singh (32.8%) versus May (32.6). 

josh

R.E.Wood

Also from the Abacus poll, Jagmeet Singh has the worst numbers of any party leader (seems the more people get to know him, the less they like him):

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh finds 20% positive opinion, and 28% negative (-8).  Compared to when he assumed the leadership his negatives are 11 points higher, and his positives 2 points higher. Mr. Singh’s negatives are higher than his positives in every region today, including BC where he is running for a seat.

http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-started-as-a-three-party-race-countdo...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

josh wrote:

Pretty much destroys the "he'll kick ass in B.C. and Ontario" argument.  And that was the only thing-other than the suits-that he really ever had going.

gadar

josh wrote:

The breakdown by province is interesting. Throw in Bernier and the Cons dont look anywhere near forming the govt. with these numbers.

josh
Pondering

gadar wrote:

josh wrote:

The breakdown by province is interesting. Throw in Bernier and the Cons dont look anywhere near forming the govt. with these numbers.

Good news for the NDP if people feel confident that the Cons won't win. 

Sean in Ottawa

The polling positions right now may be a long way from where they will be when the election starts -- and much further from where it will end.

Yes, people should fear failure for the NDP but it is not certain.

bekayne

New poll from Innovative Reasearch Group (which has not been mentioned in the media anywhere):

Lib  38%

Con  31%

NDP  15%

BQ  25% in Quebec (!)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PAAC-Presentati...

 

josh

NDP at 17 in BC, 16 in Ontario, 15 (and fourth place) in Quebec.

NorthReport

Dark clouds on the horizon for the Liberals which will probably only accelerate once Jason Kenney is elected

https://globalnews.ca/news/4521129/what-liberal-losses-in-ontario-quebec-and-new-brunswick-mean-for-justin-trudeau-in-2019/

R.E.Wood

NorthReport wrote:

Dark clouds on the horizon for the Liberals which will probably only accelerate once Jason Kennedy is elected

https://globalnews.ca/news/4521129/what-liberal-losses-in-ontario-quebec-and-new-brunswick-mean-for-justin-trudeau-in-2019/

Do you mean Jason Kenney?

And the opposite view is that the spread of populist conservatives on the provincial level will serve to make Trudeau look that much better in contrast to all progressive voters, who will be unified in not wanting Scheer to take power. The ones who seem to have no good news are the NDP.

Pondering

You are correct Wood. No NDP leader could defeat Trudeau this time around in large part because he is only entering his second term but also because he is perceived to have handled Trump well and is viewed in contrast to him. He will be weaker entering his third term. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pondering wrote:

You are correct Wood. No NDP leader could defeat Trudeau this time around in large part because he is only entering his second term but also because he is perceived to have handled Trump well and is viewed in contrast to him. He will be weaker entering his third term. 

Will the NDP have any chance of recovery in any future election if it loses every seat in Quebec, though?  If that happens, how do you persuade anybody who isn't supporting it now to do so in the future?  

cco

The NDP has a long history of losing every seat in Québec. Then once it won one in a by-election, lost it in the general, went back to losing every seat in Québec, won one, then won most of them, then lost most of them again.

The persuasion will depend on a lot of things (really, do most people in Ontario, the West, and the Maritimes vote for a party solely based on how well it does in Québec?), but the NDP's future prospects in Québec, whether or not it loses every seat, will largely be down to whether the membership decides to accept the "Nobody could've possibly done better" argument.

Aristotleded24

Looking at the Manitoba/Saskatchewan numbers, Winnipeg would certainly account for some Liberal support. Are there any polls that show how things are going in Saskatchewan? I would be very surprised if the federal Liberals made enough traction there to take seats beyond Wascana, considering that Liberals are not popular there, nor is the Trudeau brand. If Singh can accomplish a Liberal revival in Saskatchewan, he truly is a bad leader.

And fourth place in Atlantic Canada? No surprise, considering the strong performances of Greens in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Dark clouds on the horizon for the Liberals which will probably only accelerate once Jason Kenney is elected

https://globalnews.ca/news/4521129/what-liberal-losses-in-ontario-quebec-and-new-brunswick-mean-for-justin-trudeau-in-2019/

There was another Angus Reid poll in June, where Trudeau's approval nationally went from 40% to 52%. Funny how the article doesn't mention that.

Pondering

It's way to early to predict trends leading up to the election. The Liberals dropped from first to last then won the election in 2015. 

NorthReport

Party / '15 Election / Latest Poll / Difference

Libs / 39% / 37% / Down 2%

Cons / 32% / 31% / Down 1%

NDP / 20% / 16% / Down 4%

BQ / 5% / 4% / Down 1%

Grns / 3% /  7% / Up 4%

MegB

Continued here.

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