2019 polls 3

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MegB
2019 polls 3

Continued from here.

knownothing knownothing's picture
Pondering

I have found that Angus Reid leans Conservative. I'm quoting this from the previous thread.

Angus Reid Institute poll shows continued momentum for NDP under Jagmeet Singh...

  • A new poll shows that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has the highest favourability rating.

...Among decided voters, the Conservatives are in the lead at 33 percent, according to the poll, followed by the Liberals at 29 percent.

The NDP under Jagmeet Singh has risen to 19 percent, up five percentage points since the beginning of October.

Singh's favourability rating is 64 percent, up 25 percentage points since the start of the campaign.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer's favourability rating is 37 percent, compared to 36 percent for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

Green Leader Elizabeth May's favourability rating is 47 percent, whereas Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is at 56 percent.

..."With election day approximately a week away, just half of Canadian voters (52%) say they are absolutely locked in to support one specific party," the Angus Reid Institute said in its report. "Thus, the vote result on October 21 will depend on personal calculations in the final days.

"On this front, the Conservatives hold the advantage: vote certainty among their supporters remains highest, while the NDP’s late momentum appears subject to change based on the fluidity of their supporters. The same phenomenon is seen among Green supporters, and to a lesser extent, among Liberal supporters."

https://www.straight.com/news/1314156/angus-reid-institute-poll-shows-continued-momentum-ndp-under-jagmeet-singh

The Conservatives don't hold the advantage. Their base is always certain and always the largest. It's centrist voters they have trouble getting and they don't seem in the mood to support the Conservatives. There is a lot of fluidity between the Greens, Liberals and NDP but not much of it goes Conservative. Voters are neither supporting the Conservatives nor fearing them which would cause a rush to the Liberals.

I suspect a large portion of the undecided will go Liberal saving their bacon. Singh is the most popular leader so that could indicate the NDP has the momentum not the Conservatives. If Singh didn't wear a turban and beard I think he would be doing even better. That means Canadians want to fight climate change and inequality and tax the wealthy.

 

NorthReport

Today NDP polling for the 10 most recent polls averages 18.6%, an increase of 0.3%

Yesterday NDP polling for the 1o most recent polls averages 18.3%

Today Liberal polling for the 10 most recent polls averages 31%

Today Conservative polling for the 10 most recent polls averages 32%

Today Le Bloc polling for the 10 most recent polls averages 6.8%

Today Green polling for the 10 most recent polls averages 8.8%

josh

Angus Reid has the Conservatives leading in the Atlantic.  Which is an eyebrow raiser.

josh

Results from Mainstreet's daily tracker poll released Wednesday show 30.9% of leaning and decided respondents said they’d vote for the Liberals, while 30.6% opted for the Conservatives and 18.3% said they’d vote for the NDP

bekayne

josh wrote:

Results from Mainstreet's daily tracker poll released Wednesday show 30.9% of leaning and decided respondents said they’d vote for the Liberals, while 30.6% opted for the Conservatives and 18.3% said they’d vote for the NDP

NDP + 1, Greens -1

KarlL

bekayne wrote:

josh wrote:

Results from Mainstreet's daily tracker poll released Wednesday show 30.9% of leaning and decided respondents said they’d vote for the Liberals, while 30.6% opted for the Conservatives and 18.3% said they’d vote for the NDP

NDP + 1, Greens -1

Mainstreet has the Liberals up 2.0 percent since their polling low point last week (Oct 10) and the NDP up 1.7% since then. Greens down 1.7% and the Conservatives down 1.1% over the same period.  All within the 2.15% MOE of course but a pretty clear upward trajectory for the NDP if a bit more gradual now.  

knownothing knownothing's picture

n/a

NorthReport

I just saw Nanos leadership numbers out today, and Justin’s popularity has really hit the skids over the past year. It’s shocking actually that we are going to have a prime minister with such low personal support. Ugh!

jerrym

KarlL wrote:

Mainstreet has the Liberals up 2.0 percent since their polling low point last week (Oct 10) and the NDP up 1.7% since then. Greens down 1.7% and the Conservatives down 1.1% over the same period.  All within the 2.15% MOE of course but a pretty clear upward trajectory for the NDP if a bit more gradual now.  

 

As noted before I don't have much faith in Mainstreet poll considering the questions raised by an independent panel of experts about their accuracy in the Calgary mayoral race.

A new report looking at the inaccuracies of Mainstreet Research’s polling methods during the 2017 Calgary municipal election is pointing fingers at a number of flaws with the poll’s results, what led to them and what happened in the aftermath. ...

As the mayoral candidates were in the final days of their election campaigns, a Mainstreet Research poll, commissioned by Postmedia — which publishes both the Calgary Herald and the Calgary Sun daily newspapers — changed the narrative, putting candidate Bill Smith in a 13-point lead over incumbent Naheed Nenshi. ...

What happened three days later stunned many Calgarians as Nenshi held tight to the mayor’s seat, winning with a 7.6-point lead. ...

Days later, Mainstreet Research apologized for what Maggi called a “catastrophic polling failure” that some argued interfered with the democratic process. ...

Months later, the Marketing Research Intelligence Association launched a review into the polling results. The association said the results were conflicting and underperforming, and the review would focus on the degree of inaccuracy, the reasons for the inaccuracies and whether the results were adequately given to the voting public.

The review was conducted by a panel of three independent academics — Dr. Christopher Adams with the University of Manitoba, professor Paul Adams at Carleton University and Dr. David Zussman with the University of Victoria — and it takes concern with a number of issues that arose as a result of the poll results. ...

The more than 70-page report also takes issue with Mainstreet’s “overconfidence” in its results when critics started voicing concerns. "Mainstreet executives responded with unshakeable confidence in their results and attacked their critics, often in personal terms, at one point suggesting there would be ‘payback’ after the election results were known,” the panel said. ...

The report said that confidence contrasted with the firm’s internal concerns over the poll results eventually led it to change its methodology — another point of contention within the polling.

Instead of using random-digit dialing, Mainstreet used phone numbers pulled from a “directory,” which pollster Janet Brown said meant the survey started out with a “flawed sample.”

The experts said the directory was under-representative of young voters who eventually made up a large portion of the unexpectedly high voter turnout. Mainstreet failed to provide more information on what that directory was or where it came from. ...

One of the biggest critics of the 2017 poll was Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt. Bratt — who was one of the people interviewed by the panel — called the 2017 poll “a damaging blow to the entire polling industry. “All can agree that the polling during the 2017 Calgary election was bad,” he told Global News. “Moreover, it had a direct impact on the result — although we cannot properly ascertain what that impact was besides destroying Andre Chabot’s candidacy.” ...

In addition to Mainstreet itself, the report also placed some of the blame for the media and public confusion on Postmedia, which the panel argued “was not critical enough in its reporting of polls for which it was partially responsible.” Postmedia did not participate in the review.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4375306/report-flawed-calgary-election-pollin...

NDP + 1, Greens -1

 

Mainstreet has the Liberals up 2.0 percent since their polling low point last week (Oct 10) and the NDP up 1.7% since then. Greens down 1.7% and the Conservatives down 1.1% over the same period.  All within the 2.15% MOE of course but a pretty clear upward trajectory for the NDP if a bit more gradual now.