2019 polls 3

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Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

josh wrote:

Abacus:

LPC 34

CPC 32

NDP 16

Bloc 8

GPC 8

PPC 2

https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-2019-canada-election-poll/

 

There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

Some people make the decision to vote "strategically" at the 11th hour, and will indicate a non-strategic voting intention to pollsters prior to that point.

Heck, some people make a "strategic" vote in the privacy of the voting booth, having fully intended to make a non-strategic vote when they left the house.

Sean in Ottawa

No I don't think a LPC majority is in the cards but I also disagree with those who think the CPC will get more seats than the LPC.

There is a possibility that could explain a shift to LPC recently though: Many here take for granted that everyone is on a left right continuum. There are many who are unhappy with Trudeau who are not. The youngest demographic in some polls was tilting Conservative a few weeks ago. With Singh gaining among young anti-Liberals the NDP may be taking that support from Conservative leaning anti Trudeau voters. The number of times Scheer and Conservatives were caught out with lies may also have caught up to them resulting in some feeling that the Liberals are not worse or considering the NDP. Again this is some loss for Conservatives. Any benefit going to Bernier becuase of the Scheer project to win him down could be significant in the last days as well. Conservatives and Bernier supporters share similar social media ecosystems. Given the closeness of the vote for the Conservatives, a loss of a point to the NDP among youth, a point to the Liberals among those who were thinking of voting ethically and conclude that they are all dirty thanks to Scheer, and a point to Bernier for the last minute scandal could be enough to take Scheer out of the equation in a raft of close seats.

People who are NDP supporters are really, really, angry about the broken promise on electoral reform. This could make a lot stay away from the Liberals until the last moment when it comes to strategic voting but a few at the last moment could contemplete with some horror a Conservative government or MP. I could imagine some at the last moment switching -  like the 0.5% drop the NDP is seeming to have.

The Liberals probably do not have the larger numbers of strategic voters but they may have a number who go over in seats where the NDP is really far behind and it is a Liberal Conservative tight race. Considered local strategic voting could be going on right now where people have waited to the last moment and the NDP vote could go up where they are in contention and down where they are not. Becuase the NDP is in contention in fewer seats this could mean a net loss of 0.5% overall but an actual increase in seats as some goes to them where they really need it.

 

josh

Ipsos:

Conservatives (33%) Have Slight Lead over Liberals (31%) in National Popular Vote, but Liberals Hold Advantage in Ontario and Quebec.  NDP at 18

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/With-Election-Close-and-Country-Divided-Who-Will-Get-Out-Their-Vote

 

Sean in Ottawa

Left Turn wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

josh wrote:

Abacus:

LPC 34

CPC 32

NDP 16

Bloc 8

GPC 8

PPC 2

https://abacusdata.ca/final-abacus-2019-canada-election-poll/

 

There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

Some people make the decision to vote "strategically" at the 11th hour, and will indicate a non-strategic voting intention to pollsters prior to that point.

Heck, some people make a "strategic" vote in the privacy of the voting booth, having fully intended to make a non-strategic vote when they left the house.

Absolutely. That strategy may not be common to all. there may be Conservatives going NDP to drop a liberal seat in LPC-NDP contests, some NDP going Liberal where the NDP are out of it. Some Liberals going NDP where the Liberals are out if it. The net would be a slight drop of votes but maybe more seats for both the NDP and LPC.

Sean in Ottawa

Liberals holding their own in Quebec is very good for the NDP. With a low vote they need things tight between the Liberals and the BQ to hang on. Problem is Liberal vote probably stacked sky high in Montreal and BQ out of it. Can only hope for a few NDP seats on the cusp. The NDP needs three way races to hang on to anything in Quebec.

bekayne
brookmere

Ken Burch wrote:
There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

There doesn't have to be a good reason, just a reason. Obama's endorsement could move a couple of % of voters, as could Scheer's Trumpian claims about why he should be PM whatever Parliament thinks.

knownothing knownothing's picture

brookmere wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

There doesn't have to be a good reason, just a reason. Obama's endorsement could move a couple of % of voters, as could Scheer's Trumpian claims about why he should be PM whatever Parliament thinks.

Perhaps the polls are trying to sway public opinion rather than reflect it.  

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

knownothing wrote:

brookmere wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
There's no good reason for NDP support to be beginning to slip at the end.  None.

There doesn't have to be a good reason, just a reason. Obama's endorsement could move a couple of % of voters, as could Scheer's Trumpian claims about why he should be PM whatever Parliament thinks.

Perhaps the polls are trying to sway public opinion rather than reflect it.  

That may be.

knownothing knownothing's picture

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

knownothing wrote:

Deja vue all over again. The good news is that no NDP member will be calling for Singh's head on a pike although some here seemed to be implying that as an inevitability, before the campaign started.

josh

Final Mainstreet has Liberals and Conservatives tied at 32 with NDP at 18.

A Conservative plurality is possible tomorrow, though unlikely, while a Liberal plurality is very likely,” concluded Maggi. “A Liberal majority remains possible, though at least as unlikely as a Conservative plurality.”

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/minority-government-most-likely-scenario-cpc-32-lpc-32-ndp-18-green-6/

bekayne

josh wrote:

Final Mainstreet has Liberals and Conservatives tied at 32 with NDP at 18.

A Conservative plurality is possible tomorrow, though unlikely, while a Liberal plurality is very likely,” concluded Maggi. “A Liberal majority remains possible, though at least as unlikely as a Conservative plurality.”

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/minority-government-most-likely-scenario-cpc-32-lpc-32-ndp-18-green-6/

Con 32.2 (+0.3) / Lib 31.6 (-1.2) / NDP 18.3 (-) / BQ  7.9 (+0.7) / GPC  6.1  (+0.6) / PPC  2.8 (-0.5)

bekayne

New Resarch Co. (first since Sept 26)

Lib 32 (-4) / Con 31 (-2) / NDP 19 (+4) / BQ  7 (+2) / GPC  8 (-1) / PPC  2 (-)

https://researchco.ca/2019/10/20/elxn43-canada-final-poll/

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If nothing else, there will clearly be no massive Green breakthrough.  At most, they'll get three seats-May's, Manley's(if he holds on)and the Victoria seat where they're running against the NDP candidate from well to his right.

That's it.  

And it makes you wonder if May even wanted a Green breakthrough, just as it's been an open question throughout her leadership, which she hopefully will have the decency to end on election night if she ever wanted there to be any Green MPs other than herself.

 

Ciabatta2

Think the Greens will win Frederiction?

bekayne

New EKOS:

Lib 34.2 (+3.2) / Con 30.0 (-2.5) / NDP 18.3 (+0.7) / GPC  8.1 (+0.2) / BQ  5.0 (-0.5) / PPC  4.0 (+0.4)

Weird regionals.

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/10/liberals-headed-to-form-government/

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

bekayne wrote:

New EKOS:

Lib 34.2 (+3.2) / Con 30.0 (-2.5) / NDP 18.3 (+0.7) / GPC  8.1 (+0.2) / BQ  5.0 (-0.5) / PPC  4.0 (+0.4)

Weird regionals.

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/10/liberals-headed-to-form-government/

 

I hope this poll is wrong

bekayne

New Forum:

Lib 31.7 (+1.7) / Con 29.9 (+0.9) / NDP 17.5 (-2.5) / BQ  9.0 (+2.0) / GPC  8.3 (+0.3) / PPC  3.0 (-1.0)

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/6fb7bbcf-bdb3-479c-9e2e-0ccb6e11e75aFed%20Final%20Oct%2020%202019.pdf

bekayne

And finally, Sunday-only Nanos:

Con 32.5 (+1.0) / Lib 31.7 (+0.7) / NDP 20.8 (+2.0) / BQ  7.2 (+0.2) / GPC  6.0 (-3.5) / PPC  1.5 (-0.3)

 

NorthReport

Folks need to go back to when the writ was dropped to see what the real but very well hidden story of the campaign is all about, and its all about the continuing skyrocketing surge by the Jagmeet Singh-led NDP and the Bloc. 

bekayne

knownothing knownothing's picture

bekayne wrote:

And finally, Sunday-only Nanos:

Con 32.5 (+1.0) / Lib 31.7 (+0.7) / NDP 20.8 (+2.0) / BQ  7.2 (+0.2) / GPC  6.0 (-3.5) / PPC  1.5 (-0.3)

 

That is awesome! 20.8% going into E-Day. Wow! 

NorthReport

Compared to what was being said about Jagmeet here and in the media, it appears the NDP Leader is hitting a home run, and perhaps even a grand slam, in the closing days of Canada's 43rd election campaign. This does show the power of Liberal's absurd talking points, unless they are continually challenged, and their lies exposed for what they really are.

NorthReport

All the signs point to a good day tomorrow for the NDP

See the jump in support for the NDP in the last 24 hours. And as well, the usual drop in support for the Greens.

And look at Jagmeet Singh's phenomenal leadership numbers from Nanos tonite as well

https://twitter.com/niknanos/status/1186117420018274304/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3Aniknanos&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nanos.co%2F

josh

Final EPP prediction:

Liberals 145

Cons 120

Bloc 37

NDP 32

GPC 3

PPC 1

https://www.electionprediction.org/2019_fed/index.php

josh

Final 338 projection:

Liberals 141

Conservatives 125

NDP 35

Bloc 33

Greens 2

PPC 1

Ind 1

http://338canada.com/

josh

Final TCTC projection:

Liberals 129

Conservatives 129

NDP 38

Bloc 37

Greens 3

PPC 1

Ind 1

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/10/final-projections-for-canada-2019.html

josh

CBC projection:

Liberals 137

Conservatives 124

Bloc 39

NDP 35

Greens 1

PPC 1

Ind 1

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

josh

Firum seat projection:

LPC: 140

CPC: 111

Bloc: 48

NDP: 38

Greens: 1

https://twitter.com/PollWatchCanada/status/1186242500492775424

 

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