2019 Polls

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nicky

I think youre right Jeff. No more than 15 seats with a possibility of being eclipsed by the Greens who will het no more than half a dozen

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Yes if only the NDP had kept that liberal Mulcair at the helm. I am sure his emphasis on fiscal responsibility would resound in this upcoming election. Ma

nicky

Tom wd have compared well to the so called leadership now on display from all parties.

even in defeat his personal approval rating was about 2 to 1 positive, far better than any if the current crop.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I guess Nicky the difference between you and me is that I want a leader that speaks truth to power not the other way around. He bullied his caucus into silence and it cost them their seats. WTF is the point of electing left MP's when a liberal leader gags them in the mistaken belief that it will win a few more percentage points in a poll. Instead his center of the road crap cost the NDP the last election.

Pondering

Mulcair was and is a conservative leaning Liberal. He became leader of the NDP on the strength of his weak defence of the environmental because the NDP thought they could win under him. 

The Liberals are plenty socially liberal for the majority of Canadians. The NDP will never win without going head to head with neoliberalism. Otherwise the NDP is interpreted as Liberals+fiscal recklessness. Layton and Mulcair rose on being almost as fiscally conservative as the Liberals against weak Liberal leaders. 

Mulcair as PM would have been a disaster for the NDP. If he kept his promise of no deficit for 4 years services would have been decimated. Had he not kept his promise of balanced budgets every year it would be evidence of NDP fiscal recklessness. We would not have national daycare nor pharmacare because conservative and liberal provincial governments would sabotage any attempts. 

The NDP would have been badly damaged for 3 to 4 decades. 

As things stand although I still think Singh is a decent man with good ideas and a genuine desire to promote equality in Canada I agree that he doesn't have what it takes to win enough seats. He is skilled but not skilled enough to overcome the unpopularity of the NDP nor his turban. I do think he has contributed to turning the party left and in highlighting income inequality. 

The polls rarely highlight the undecided. The unspoken assumption is that the undecided will reflect the decided which makes no sense. The decided are people who pay at least a modicum of attention to politics between elections. The undecided are mostly people who wait until the last few weeks to decide. They are non-partisan pragmatics. The debates matter. 

Even the people who do have a preference now know they are not voting tomorrow. If I answered a poll today I would tell the truth, NDP. But, if I were ticked off at the NDP, I might say Green. When push comes to shove I would still vote NDP. In my riding the Conservatives don't have a hope in hell so I can vote NDP but if the Conservatives and Liberals were neck in neck I would hold my nose and vote Liberal. When I vote Green it is with the understanding that they won't win. 

Regardless of whether or not Singh's leadership survives I think the NDP has changed directions and is going to tackle the issue of income inequality and precarious work. Seat count isn't everything. Low seat count was an opportunity for renewal for the Liberals and they came back roaring. I think they will do very well in October. They will win and they might even get another majority. People who are pissed at the Liberals for one reason or another will return to them rather than elect Scheer or Singh. 

Strong NDP candidates have every reason to believe they can keep their seats and strong candidates can bring in more seats. Trudeau won his majority without them. Canadians are unafraid of minority governments. Many have fond memories of Liberal minority governments. People don't seem afraid of the Conservatives winning. Individual MPs could make a big difference. 

This is the first election in which the PBO will pass judgement on the fiscal feasibility of the platforms. I expect that to have some impact. I think it is good news for the NDP but who knows? 

Interviews and the debates will have an impact. Singh is still a relative unknown to most Canadians. Scheer a little less so but still not well known. Both could shine or fall flat on their faces. Trudeau will be challenged on Lavalin and China among other things but he will have his list of accomplishments at the ready. 

Seat projections now make no more sense than saying "If it were March 2016 who would win the election?" It doesn't matter because it isn't March 2016 and it isn't close enough to Oct 21 2019 either. There is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before we vote. 

Debater

Latest seat projection by 338Canada

Liberal 152

Conservative 146

NDP 22

BQ 12

Greens 6

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/08/338canada-federal-update-august-4th.html

Aristotleded24

Misfit wrote:
Allan, you need to chill out and have a Twinkie. I understand your concern but the election hasn’t even been called yet. Anything can happen between now and October. Sheer is not a strong leader. And he lacks charisma.

And telling racists to move to the States only makes that country even worse. We need to stop racism and bigotry everywhere. We can do it and work hard to build up this country again to what it can be.

we have had so many right wing governments in power yet we are still alive. Most people who vote conservative are too ignorant to be ashamed of themselves yet they delight themselves in shooting themselves in the foot. In a sick way It almost makes me laugh especially when they turn around and ask why the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer as they vote for the parties which hurt them.

anyway, sheer is not all that he is cracked up to be and I am hoping for a minority government. It is possible.

I'm not at all worried about Andrew Scheer becoming Prime Minister. He is not leadership material, and if the Conservatives win the election they are stuck with him. His public support will very quickly fade after that. Also, Western Canada is in the middle of a potential political realignment, and if the NDP plays its cards well, they can capitalize on this unpopularity and take down the Conservatives very hard in 2023.

You know what does worry me? If the Liberals are re-elected, by the time 2023 rolls around they will be in deep trouble. They will be carrying baggage that all long-term governments do. Trudeau may not even run again, and there is nobody with charisma or talent in his Caucus (except Ralph Goodale, who has been around a long time) who can relplace him. The Liberals will also be bleeding support to the NDP and the Greens with the inevitable disappointment from the failure of Liberals to deliver on the more progressive aspects of their platform. Meanwhile, the Conservatives will have a chance to dump Scheer, elect a Harper-like leader who is capable, and to head off the threat coming towards their right flank from Maxime Bernier's party. This could result in a long-term Conservative government that may prove difficult to dislodge.

I believe that if the Conservatives don't win in a couple of months that they will in 2023. Let's have the earlier victory and improve our chances of seriously reducing the number of elected Conservative MPs over the longer term.

R.E.Wood

New polling from Mainstreet. 

34.5  Liberals

34.1 Conservatives.

11.1  Greens

11.1  NDP

4.4 Bloc Québécois,

3.3  People’s Party of Canada

The regional numbers continue to be disastrous for the NDP, who Mainstreet has in fourth place in BC, Alberta, the Atlantic provinces, and - perhaps most importantly - Quebec.  In fact, in Quebec the NDP is less than half a % ahead of the Greens, so the two are competing for 4th/5th place.  The best the NDP does is a weak third place in Ontario (12.5%) and the Prairies (11.7%).

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/07/liberals-tories-neck-and-neck-in-latest-...

JeffWells

R.E.Wood wrote:

New polling from Mainstreet. 

34.5  Liberals

34.1 Conservatives.

11.1  Greens

11.1  NDP

4.4 Bloc Québécois,

3.3  People’s Party of Canada

The regional numbers continue to be disastrous for the NDP, who Mainstreet has in fourth place in BC, Alberta, the Atlantic provinces, and - perhaps most importantly - Quebec.  In fact, in Quebec the NDP is less than half a % ahead of the Greens, so the two are competing for 4th/5th place.  The best the NDP does is a weak third place in Ontario (12.5%) and the Prairies (11.7%).

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/07/liberals-tories-neck-and-neck-in-latest-...

Thanks for the poll. People keep talking about this being a "save the furniture" election for the NDP, but the regional numbers suggest something more shattering than that and perhaps even unprecedented for the party. There's no strength anywhere and no good news, not counting still running ahead of the Greens in Ontario and Quebec, and just barely.
 

Debater

The Preferred Prime Minister numbers from Nanos are interesting:

R.E.Wood

Debater wrote:

The Preferred Prime Minister numbers from Nanos are interesting:

I always say that that is a very important number to watch. If people don't want the party leader to be Prime Minister then they will not vote for the party. And unfortunately on that count, Singh continues dragging the party down. 

Hurtin Albertan

I'm interested in how Bernier is able to poll as high as he is, I had him pegged at no more that 1 or 2% tops.  I'm pretty sure anyone saying they would vote for the PPC would otherwise be voting for the Conservatives, or at least a significantly large amount of them would.  Maybe the PPC will have more of a vote splitting effect than I would have thought.  Guess we'll see how the final numbers look after the polls close, I'm guessing more people say they support the PPC than will actually vote for it.

Pondering

I agree that preferred Prime Minister is likely to result in more votes. Both Scheer and Singh are unknowns to most Canadians so it is natural that their numbers are low and will remain low until the election is much closer. 

I don't agree that it is better for the Liberals to lose to the Conservatives this election. It is not a foregone solution that the Conservatives will otherwise win in 2023. It is not inevidable that the Liberals and Conservatives will forever trade places.

Generational change is happening. Conservatives are dying off. The proportion of voters who consider climate change and inequality to be our greatest challenges is growing. I am not saying there is a contingent of super-woke people about to take over, but climate change and inequality are only going to grow worse under the Conservatives and the Liberals. Even the IMF is concerned about growing inequality and countries that can never hope to pay their debts. Insurance companies are concerned about climate change. Florida will continue shrinking. 

In my opinion whether the Conservatives or Liberals win it is almost immaterial. Not entirely because Liberals do treat indigenous people better, they are more supportive of social services, things like safe injection sites. These things matter. It is still immaterial in the grander sense because they are both solidly neoliberal. 

People are going to demand action. Activists need to be ready to point the finger of blame at both the Liberals and Conservatives. 

swallow swallow's picture

Before Jack Layton, did anyone ever voted for an NDP leader with the belief they might become prime minister? Surely NDP supporters were not that out of touch?

JKR

Pondering wrote:

It is not inevidable that the Liberals and Conservatives will forever trade places.

It’s also not inevitable that the sun will rise tomorrow but I’m still planning my day on that good possibility  ;)

Looking at the current political landscape, I think the Greens have a greater chance of eventually forming a government in Ottawa than the NDP does. Right now it seems like the only bright spot for the NDP is in BC. The current election in Manitoba should be partially informative.

Pondering

Under both Layton and Mulcair the NDP came close to winning. Canadians are willing to put the NDP in power federally. So far the NDP hasn't provided a good enough plan under a good enough leader. 

I don't think Singh is that leader in part due to prejudice and racism but I do think he is turning the NDP in the right direction. 

brookmere

swallow wrote:

Before Jack Layton, did anyone ever voted for an NDP leader with the belief they might become prime minister? Surely NDP supporters were not that out of touch?

The poll didn't ask people who they believe will be prime minister, they asked people who they'd prefer as prime minister. Back in the day Ed Broadbent polled much higher in the preferred prime minister question than the NDP did in party preference.

Debater

Yes, there were a few occasions in the 1980's when the Broadbent NDP was #1 in the polls.  In the early 1980's when Pierre Trudeau was Prime Minister, and in the later 80's when Mulroney was PM.

As Ed said in his 2004 Ottawa Centre ad, "once more popular than Trudeau".

Debater

Innovative Research

LPC: 36% (-)

CPC: 32% (-)

NDP: 14% (+1)

GPC: 10% (-)

PPC: 4% (+4)

BQ: 4% (-)

July 31st / 1804 Respondents / Online (% changes compared to April 10th)

Released today:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1159911984680357889

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Debater wrote:

Yes, there were a few occasions in the 1980's when the Broadbent NDP was #1 in the polls.  In the early 1980's when Pierre Trudeau was Prime Minister, and in the later 80's when Mulroney was PM.

As Ed said in his 2004 Ottawa Centre ad, "once more popular than Trudeau".

Reality check. The NDP under Ed barely broke 20% in the only poll that counts and that was in 1988. Then the NDP's braintrust in Ontario chose to back the wrong horse in the referendum and Reform swept away both the PC's and the NDP in Western Canada.

Debater

New Mainstreet riding poll shows the race in Beauce tied between the CPC & PPC:

CPC: 34%

PPC: 33%

LPC: 19%

BQ: 6%

GPC: 4%

NDP: 2%

http://https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/09/bernier-in-dead-heat-with-tories-in-his-quebec-riding/

Pondering

Point being just because they haven't won yet doesn't mean they never will. I want a party to win that will focus on reversing neoliberalism, on climate change and on inequality. I hope that can be the NDP. We'll see. I believe if they commit to that they can win. The trade deals need to be tackled head on. 

R.E.Wood

Abacus, August 10:

DEAD HEAT IN NATIONAL SUPPORT AS THE FEDERAL ELECTION APPROACHES

https://abacusdata.ca/dead-heat-in-national-support-as-the-federal-elect...

Debater

The Abacus poll isn't too bad for the NDP (except for Quebec & the Atlantic).

Debater

The Tories’ nagging problem

The race remains deadlocked, with Andrew Scheer’s ongoing slide in Ontario clouding the Conservatives’ chances

by Philippe J. Fournier

Aug 11, 2019

LIBERAL 155

CONSERVATIVE 145

NDP 20

BQ 12

GREEN 6

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/this-weeks-338canada-projection-the-tories-nagging-problem/

nicky

Today’s Abacus has Ford’s approval rating at 65 negative vs 20 % positive.

that may turn out to be the major reason Trudeau gets re-elected

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

nicky wrote:

Today’s Abacus has Ford’s approval rating at 65 negative vs 20 % positive.

that may turn out to be the major reason Trudeau gets re-elected

Agreed. It could also help the NDP in the NDP/Con ridings where the Libs are generally not in contention.

Aristotleded24

Michael Moriarity wrote:
nicky wrote:

Today’s Abacus has Ford’s approval rating at 65 negative vs 20 % positive.

that may turn out to be the major reason Trudeau gets re-elected

Agreed. It could also help the NDP in the NDP/Con ridings where the Libs are generally not in contention.

You would not believe how often "vote strategically" gets confused to mean "vote Liberal" regardless of whatever local riding dynamics are in play. People voted strategically for the Liberals in places like Halifax and Winnipeg Centre, costing the NDP seats in areas where the Conservatives were never in contention. People voted strategically for the Liberals in Regina-Qu'Apelle, causing then-NDP MP Lorne Nystrom to lose his seat to the Conservatives. People don't pay that close attention to local riding dynamics.

Debater

Eric Grenier is back from a 2-week vacation.

New seat projection from CBC Poll Tracker:

Liberal: 157

Conservative: 144

NDP: 18

Bloc Québécois: 14

Greens: 4

Other: 1

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

josh

The federal Greens and Liberals are locked in a close race in Victoria, with the incumbent NDP not far behind in third place, according to a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics.

Elizabeth May’s Green Party was the top choice of 22.9 per cent of respondents in the survey, with the Liberals and NDP close behind at 20.8 and 19.3 per cent, respectively. Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives drew the support of 14.3 per cent of voters contacted for the poll, while Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada (PPC) grabbed 2.9 per cent.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/15/liberals-greens-in-statistical-tie-in-victoria-says-mainstreet-poll/

 

nicky

The Greens are actually down about 10% in Victoria from 2015, notwithstanding Murray Rankin’s retirement.

this seems to run counter to the narrative that they are dominating Vancouver Island

brookmere

nicky wrote:
The Greens are actually down about 10% in Victoria from 2015

If you're going to compare the poll results to the 2015 election, you have to factor out the undecided vote, which is 18.3%. Thus the decided vote is 28% Green, 25.5% Liberal, and 23.6% NDP. In 2015 the NDP got 42%, the Greens 33% and the Liberals 12%.

bekayne

brookmere wrote:

nicky wrote:
The Greens are actually down about 10% in Victoria from 2015

If you're going to compare the poll results to the 2015 election, you have to factor out the undecided vote, which is 18.3%. Thus the decided vote is 28% Green, 25.5% Liberal, and 23.6% NDP. In 2015 the NDP got 42%, the Greens 33% and the Liberals 12%.

And the Liberal candidate dropped out during the campaign in 2015.

josh
Debater

Thanks for posting that, Josh.

That's interesting because Ipsos is a Conservative-leaning pollster, so if they show a Tied race, that's not bad for the Liberals.

Debater

Nanos: August 20, 2019

Trudeau widens his lead over Scheer in new Preferred Prime Minister weekly tracking; Singh continues to trail Elizabeth May:

Trudeau: 31.8%

Unsure: 24.1%

Scheer: 23.9%

May: 8.4%

Singh: 7.5%

https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Political-Package-2019-08-16-Website-FR-with-tabs.pdf

josh

josh

Leger:

LPC 33

CPC 33

GPC 13

NDP 11

Bloc 4

PPC 4

https://t.co/NgMBkBGdsu

Debater

So Josh, it looks like Abacus & Leger both show a Tie between the Liberals & Conservatives?

NorthReport

Our Trudeau Emperor has no clothes and this election has Minority Government written all over it!

Most (67%) Continue to Want Change in Ottawa as Only One in Three (33%) Say Trudeau Deserves Re-election

C - 35%

L - 33%

N - 18%

- latest Ipsos Poll

Debater

Ipsos poll.  Run by life-long Conservative Darrell Bricker.

And yet even Ipsos can't get the Conservatives out of a tie with the Liberals.

NorthReport

Please stop with your braying nonsense Debater as if other polling firms like David Anderson' Abacus are not attached to the hip of the Liberals.

Debater

The point is that you always quote Ipsos without ever telling your readers that it is run by a life-long Conservative.

You point out Liberal bias, so why not point out Conservative bias?

bekayne

You two are arguing about polls that are nearly identical?

Debater

Yeah, that's the point.  It's not just the "Liberal" pollsters that show the Liberals tied with the Conservatives, it's even the Conservative-leaning ones like Ipsos.

Anyway, as Chantal Hebert wrote in her piece today, Trudeau seems to be weathering the fallout from the SNC-Lavelin scandal, although that could always change before the election.

Pondering

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/trudeau-young-voters-snc-lavalin_ca_5d5c62e9e4b0f667ed69ea09?ncid=other_trending_qeesnbnu0l8&utm_campaign=trending

Trudeau's Still Got A Lead With Young Voters: Poll

The SNC-Lavalin affair isn't as important to Millennial voters as climate change or the cost of living.

...

Thirty-five per cent would vote Liberal, compared to 27 per cent Conservative and 22 per cent for the NDP. The majority of voters between ages 35 and 54 are split between Liberals and Conservatives, and voters aged 55 and older are most likely to vote Conservative. 

There is open road ahead for the NDP if they choose to take it. 

 

Debater

Mainstreet poll suggests close Liberal-NDP race in Windsor West

Aug 22, 2019

Pupatello (Lib) 33.1

Masse (NDP) 31.8

Lau (Con) 18.6

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/22/mainstreet-poll-suggests-close-liberal-ndp-race-in-windsor-west/

brookmere

2015 votes were 51% NDP, 25% Lib, 9.7% Conservatives. And this is one of the cities where Singh grew up.

I wasn't expecting the Liberal vote to be up from 2015 in a riding like this. If this poll is accurate, look out.

NorthReport

Meanwhile back in the real world Conservatives are tied or are leading in 9 of the 13 most recent polls

It is truly unfortunate that the racist attacks on

Singh will deprive Canadians of a healthy alternative

 as the Liberals continue to crash and burn due

to the ineptude of their leader

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

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