2019 Polls

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bekayne

Debater wrote:

Nanos numbers released on CTV Power Play today.  First time in a while that they are not behind a paywall.

Guess that experiment was a dud.

josh

NorthReport

If the Conservatives and the NDP are in such bad shape, why are the Liberals languishing at only 33% in the polls. 

Sean in Ottawa

sorry did not intend to make post public - meant for PM. (please ignore)

NorthReport

Most Canadians feel society is ‘broken’, politicians don’t care about them

 

The survey results, provided exclusively to Global News among Canadian outlets, were gathered at the end of March and early April.

They were collected as part of a poll that included 27 countries.

Sixty-one per cent of Canadian respondents agreed traditional political parties don’t care about people like them ⁠— an increase of five points over polling done in 2016, the first year of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s mandate.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5860959/canadians-society-politics-ipsos-poll/

NorthReport

So in the past month the NDP has gained 2.6% on the Liberals. Not too shabby a performance for Jagmeet Singh! 

Why strong job gains may not mean success for Trudeau’s Liberals in Election 2019

https://globalnews.ca/news/5866011/job-gains-trudeaus-liberals-election-2019/

josh

Campaign Research:

LPC 34

CPC 34

NDP 12

GPC 12

Bloc 4

PPC 2

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/Tied-Overall-Tied-in-Ontario

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

If the Conservatives and the NDP are in such bad shape, why are the Liberals languishing at only 33% in the polls. 

Who said the Conservatives were in bad shape?

Debater

Innovative Research Group

September 9th, 2019

34% CON (+2 since Jul. 31)

33% LIB (-3)

13% NDP (-1)

11% GRN (+1)

5% BQ (+1)

5% PPC

(Aug. 30-Sept. 5, 3,236 surveyed online)

The key finding is that, with the NDP in the doldrums, the Liberals are in a strong position coming into the race.  Not only have they cemented their hold on last elections core seats, but they may also be able to gain seats to offsets the losses they will likely experience in the Toronto and Vancouver suburbs and Atlantic Canada.  But campaigns matter, so we will repeat this analysis at least one more time in the campaign.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/2019-federal-election-seat-clusters/

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-Federal-Election-Seat-Clusters.pdf

josh
ctrl190

josh wrote:

Mainstreet

LPC 37.5

CPC 34

GPC 11

NDP 8

PPC 5

Bloc 4

 

Yikes. When was the last time the Dippers polled that low? Clean out the entire front office pronto. Pathethic. 

Debater

Other pollsters have better National numbers for the NDP such as the new Nanos poll:

LIB: 34.6

CON: 30.7

NDP: 16.5

GREEN:  11

BQ: 4

PPC:  2

But it's the regional numbers that matter most.  That's where the NDP weakness is (eg. Quebec).  That's how the Liberals fell to 3rd in 2011 -- they were weak in each region of the country.

brookmere
josh

Poll of Nova Scotia:

LPC 44

CPC 31

NDP 13

GPC 9

PPC 1

https://mobile.twitter.com/MQOResearch/status/1171553846751113216

Debater

Beloeil-Chambly

Liberal: 35%
BQ:  26%
Conservative: 15%
Green: 9%
NDP:  8%

[Mainstreet, 11 septembre 2019]

https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/politique/sondage-mainstreet-pari-risque-pour-blanchet-dans-beloeil-chambly-videos-e3590acd0f9d870eaeaa034a810c5e35

Debater

Trois-Rivières

Liberal: 36%

Conservative: 28%

BQ:  20%

NDP: 5%

***

Sherbrooke:

Liberal: 44%

BQ: 18%

Conservative: 13%

NDP: 12%

***

Louis-Hébert

Liberal: 40%

Conservative: 19%

BQ: 19%

Green: 8%

People's Party: 7%

NDP: 5%

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-rivieres-e953766c147884e402a0ad87993eb365

josh
josh
josh

In a survey of 1,001 Canadian voters Wednesday, Forum found that 36.3 per cent would support the Conservatives if a vote were held today, while 32.4 per cent would vote Liberal. The Greens continue to poll ahead of the NDP with 11.6 per cent, compared to 8.6 support for the New Democrats.

https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/federal/2019/09/11/poll-shows-conservatives-hold-a-slight-lead-as-the-campaign-begins.html?__twitter_impression=true

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Trois-Rivières

Liberal: 36%

Conservative: 28%

BQ:  20%

NDP: 5%

***

Sherbrooke:

Liberal: 44%

BQ: 18%

Conservative: 13%

NDP: 12%

***

Louis-Hébert

Liberal: 40%

Conservative: 19%

BQ: 19%

Green: 8%

People's Party: 7%

NDP: 5%

https://www.lenouvelliste.ca/actualites/sondage-mainstreet-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-rivieres-e953766c147884e402a0ad87993eb365

That's sickening.  No one but the wealthy would benefit from Quebec federal politics going back to nothing but Lib-Con-Bloc.  Everybody who wasn't a millionaire would be left totally out in the cold if Quebec returned to the dreary uselessness of those three options.

jerrym

josh wrote:

Leger

CPC 35

LPC 34

NDP 11

GPC 11

Bloc 5

PPC 3

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Federal-Politics-Sept-11-2019.pdf

This poll shows some interesting info among second choices. While the poll shows the NDP and Greens tied at only 11%, the NDP and Greens are the top second choices of voters at 18% and 17% nationally respectively. The Liberals, PPC, Cons and Bloc trail with 12%, 9%, 8% and 3% respectively. This suggests that the campaign matters very much as the NDP and Greens have the most to gain from a good campaign that attracts second choices and the Libs and Cons the most to lose if things turn sour for them. In all regions except Alberta the NDP and Greens are in a statistical tie for second choices(within 3%) and at least one and in most cases both are leading the other parties. In Alberta the NDP leads the Greens by 6% in second choices. The NDP and Greens lead in every region for second choices except in Alberta where the PPC has 19%.
Since the NDP and Greens are only at 11% as a first choice, their 18% and 17% second choice voters, aside from those attracted to each other as second choices, most likely are first choice Liberals, so good campaign performances by them and/or poor performance by the Liberals could significantly reduce the Liberal seat victories, as most NDP and Green orientated voters have little in common with the Cons.
The PPC also does well in Man/Sask where it has 15% although it does relatively poorly everywhere else.
It is not surprising to me that the third and fourth parties lead in second choices because many voters are not ideologically driven and don't pay a lot of attention to politics until the campaign starts. They also often don't know platforms that well, deciding by overall impressions and who they dislike. The latter gives the Liberals an advantage for those who are not keen on the Trudeau record but want to stop the Cons. The growing number of parties also means they can win with smaller percentages than previously but also means a drop of a few points could hurt them badly.
May has the advantage over Singh of being well-known, but Singh has the potential to rapidly change opinions of himself, because many voters still barely know him. Nevertheless, for those whom race and religion matters, he has a very steep hill to overcome, although Fist Nations Manitoba NDP leader Wab Kinew did relatively well in this month's election.
Since 67% of voters have second choices in mind, voting results are not cast in stone. Because a change of a few percentage points makes an enormous difference in outcomes in a FPTP system, how well parties do is still up in the air. However, the Cons face the reality that they have the fewest second choices of the four main parties.
At the provincial election level, the strong showing of the PPC among second choice voters on the prairies suggests that any movement of the right-wing conservatives to the centre-right is highly unlikely and that these provincial parties are more likely to move further right and possibly racist to head off a challenge from a PPC-like provincial party.

brookmere

jerrym wrote:
While the poll shows the NDP and Greens tied at only 11%, the NDP and Greens are the top second choices of voters at 18% and 17% nationally respectively.

I would expect that since most Liberal supporters couldn't stomach supporting the Conservatives so their second choices are likely to be the NDP or Greens, and as well the NDP and Greens are likely to be the second choices of a good number of each other's supporters.

The Liberals don't get many second choices since Conservatives would more likely go to PPC, and although the Liberals may be the second choice of some NDP or Green supporters there aren't that many to start with. The Cons get few second choices for similar reasons.

NorthReport
josh

The Nanos survey for CTV News and The Globe and Mail found that if an election were held today, 35 per cent of likely and decided voters would back the Liberals, 33 per cent would support the Conservatives and 16 per cent would select the NDP.

Ten per cent of voters support the Green Party, four per cent support the Bloc Quebecois and two per cent support Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada.

josh
Debater

It says the Abacus poll was conducted Sept 6-10, so it was before the election call on Sept 11 or the debate on Sept 12.

But here are the regionals:

NorthReport

NDP exceeding expectations rises to 17% in latest NANOS poll out this morning

L 35%

C 32%

N 17%

G 10%

B 4%

P 2%

 

jerrym

Four of the last five polls listed on Wikipedia show the NDP at 15% or higher and trending up: Abacus 15% (Sept. 10); Dart 15% (Sept. 11); Nanos 15.7% (September 13); and Nanos 16.6% (September 14). The exception is Forum (Sept. 11) 8.6% (before the debate). The two Nanos polls consist of three days of polling 400 voters for a total of 1,200 voters per day average. So the September 13 and 14 numbers include some but not all post debate voter choices with the last poll, September 14, being 2/3 post debate voters. The two Nanos polls, which are most recent, show a 2.6% and 2.9% Liberal lead nationally over the Cons 35.4% to 32.8% on September 13, and 35.2% to 32.3% on September 14. 

Voters impression of Jagmeet Singh has shown a marked improvement this year from 30% negative and 21% positive in February (-9%), to a tie of 26% to 26% in August, to 30% positive to 28% negative (+2%) on September 10th, which is before the debates, according to Abacus. 

The Nanos more detailed numbers are behind a paywall, but Dart (September 11) shows a close three horse race in BC with Cons at 31%, NDP at 27% and Libs at 25%, while the Greens trail at 14%. Surprisingly, this poll also shows the NDP at 17% in Atlantic Canada, behind the Libs 35% and the Cons 31%, but marginally ahead of the Greens 16%, on admittedly a small sample size for Atlantic Canada of 83 v0ters. 

Abacus shows also shows a fairly close race in BC with the Greens fourth: Cons 32%, Libs 30%, NDP 22%, and Greens 14%. On the other hand, in Atlantic Canada it shows a large lead for the Libs (44%), compared to the Cons 26%, the Greens at 16% and the NDP at 12%. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_fede...

 

Debater

The NDP national numbers are okay in some polls, yes.

But remember the important thing to look at for all parties is the regional numbers.  For the NDP they need to get their numbers up in Quebec.  As long as they are way down, they risk losing almost all of the 15 seats there, and that is a large chunk of the NDP caucus.

Libs need to keep their numbers up in several regions if they want to stay ahead of the Cons.

NorthReport

Conservatives tied with Liberals,  and NDP now double the support of the Greens, in latest NANOS poll

https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ballot-Ending-September-15-2019.pdf

 

NorthReport

With the Conservatives now tied for first place with the Liberals,  it looks like the Liberals have been damaged by chickenshit Trudeau who dodged the first debate. 

NorthReport
Debater

Regionals.  It's about the regionals.

jerrym

jerrym wrote:

Four of the last five polls listed on Wikipedia show the NDP at 15% or higher and trending up: Abacus 15% (Sept. 10); Dart 15% (Sept. 11); Nanos 15.7% (September 13); and Nanos 16.6% (September 14). The exception is Forum (Sept. 11) 8.6% (before the debate). The two Nanos polls consist of three days of polling 400 voters for a total of 1,200 voters per day average. So the September 13 and 14 numbers include some but not all post debate voter choices with the last poll, September 14, being 2/3 post debate voters. The two Nanos polls, which are most recent, show a 2.6% and 2.9% Liberal lead nationally over the Cons 35.4% to 32.8% on September 13, and 35.2% to 32.3% on September 14. 

Voters impression of Jagmeet Singh has shown a marked improvement this year from 30% negative and 21% positive in February (-9%), to a tie of 26% to 26% in August, to 30% positive to 28% negative (+2%) on September 10th, which is before the debates, according to Abacus. 

The Nanos more detailed numbers are behind a paywall, but Dart (September 11) shows a close three horse race in BC with Cons at 31%, NDP at 27% and Libs at 25%, while the Greens trail at 14%. Surprisingly, this poll also shows the NDP at 17% in Atlantic Canada, behind the Libs 35% and the Cons 31%, but marginally ahead of the Greens 16%, on admittedly a small sample size for Atlantic Canada of 83 v0ters. 

Abacus shows also shows a fairly close race in BC with the Greens fourth: Cons 32%, Libs 30%, NDP 22%, and Greens 14%. On the other hand, in Atlantic Canada it shows a large lead for the Libs (44%), compared to the Cons 26%, the Greens at 16% and the NDP at 12%. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_fede...

 

Debater wrote:

Regionals.  It's about the regionals.

Actually its about the ridings. Parties can win more ridings than regional polls would suggest if they do very poorly in some ridings but do enough to win in others. An example of this is the NDP winning Labrador West in the 2019 Newfoundland provincial election in a shocking outcome, as well as two St. Johns seats when polls suggested that they might win none. 

Debater

jerrym wrote:

Actually its about the ridings. Parties can win more ridings than regional polls would suggest if they do very poorly in some ridings but do enough to win in others. An example of this is the NDP winning Labrador West in the 2019 Newfoundland provincial election in a shocking outcome, as well as two St. Johns seats when polls suggested that they might win none. 

Yes, but the ridings are part of the regionals.

What happened to the Liberals in 2011 is that they didn't have a single region of the country where they resonated with voters, and so that's why the Ignatieff Liberals dropped to 3rd.  The National numbers for the NDP are okay at the moment, but if they remain 4th/5th in Quebec and 3rd in BC (the 2 provinces where they have the most seats at present) they risk losing many of their current 42 seats.

JeffWells

Debater wrote:
The National numbers for the NDP are okay at the moment, but if they remain 4th/5th in Quebec and 3rd in BC (the 2 provinces where they have the most seats at present) they risk losing many of their current 42 seats.

I don't understand why more people who follow politics closely don't appear to see this.

In other years, if the NDP were polling mid-teens that could mean 20 or so seats, because the party had pockets of regional support. Traditionally BC, the Prairies or Ontario, more recently Atlantic Canada or Quebec. They're currently running fifth in Quebec. That's a half of the caucus gone right there. How are they going to make that up, or even hold what's left? There isn't a single region where they are showing strength enough to even poll as high as second, let alone lead.

Keep 1993 in mind. Not for Audrey McLaughlin's showing, but Kim Campbell's. The Tories won just 2 seats with 16% but the NDP 9 with less than 7%, because it was still in contention in Saskatchewan. Sure, things can change, but national numbers notwithstanding, right now the NDP are not in contention anywhere.

bekayne
R.E.Wood

JeffWells wrote:

Keep 1993 in mind. Not for Audrey McLaughlin's showing, but Kim Campbell's. The Tories won just 2 seats with 16% but the NDP 9 with less than 7%, because it was still in contention in Saskatchewan. Sure, things can change, but national numbers notwithstanding, right now the NDP are not in contention anywhere.

I totally agree with keeping this in mind. It's a perfect correlation to what the NDP could be facing in this election.

JKR

JeffWells wrote:

Debater wrote:
The National numbers for the NDP are okay at the moment, but if they remain 4th/5th in Quebec and 3rd in BC (the 2 provinces where they have the most seats at present) they risk losing many of their current 42 seats.

I don't understand why more people who follow politics closely don't appear to see this.

In other years, if the NDP were polling mid-teens that could mean 20 or so seats, because the party had pockets of regional support. Traditionally BC, the Prairies or Ontario, more recently Atlantic Canada or Quebec. They're currently running fifth in Quebec. That's a half of the caucus gone right there. How are they going to make that up, or even hold what's left? There isn't a single region where they are showing strength enough to even poll as high as second, let alone lead.

Keep 1993 in mind. Not for Audrey McLaughlin's showing, but Kim Campbell's. The Tories won just 2 seats with 16% but the NDP 9 with less than 7%, because it was still in contention in Saskatchewan. Sure, things can change, but national numbers notwithstanding, right now the NDP are not in contention anywhere.

Cumulatively the NDP, BQ, Greens, and PPC could get almost 1/3rd of the votes but if their votes are spread out thinly they could win only around 25 seats all together. This would make it more likely that either the Liberals or Conservatives win a phoney FPTP “majority” government with just over 1/3rd of the vote.

NorthReport

The NDP are polling less than 3% of what they got in the last election. Jagmeet has had an excellent start. Who says they can’t make up that 3% during the election campaign, apart from the Liberal talking points that is

BertramPotts BertramPotts's picture

NorthReport wrote:

The NDP are polling less than 3% of what they got in the last election. Jagmeet has had an excellent start. Who says they can’t make up that 3% during the election campaign, apart from the Liberal talking points that is

Why would getting the same result as 2015 be marked as a victory?

It might be enough to let Singh and some Central party hacks keep their jobs but it would hardly be a high watermark for democratic socialists, or much improve the lives of the voters we need to convince. 

josh

Tuesday’s results from Mainstreet’s rolling three-day tracking poll showed the Liberals narrowly in front of the Conservatives at 32.5 to 31.9 per cent, a lead that falls within the survey’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 2.23 percentage points, at the 95 per cent confidence level.

Undecided voters totalled 10.8 per cent of all respondents. The Green party was the choice of 8.7 per cent of respondents, followed by the NDP at 8.3, the Bloc Québécois with 3.9, the People’s Party at 2.9, and an unspecified other party option trailing at 0.9 per cent.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/17/liberals-tories-deadlocked-as-first-week-of-campaign-comes-to-a-close-mainstreet-poll/

NorthReport

Hopefully no party gets a majority!

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Hopefully no party gets a majority!

Not even the NDP?!?!

Debater

bekayne wrote:

New Ipsos poll:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Liberals-Conservatives-Dead-Heat-Election-Officially-Underway

Lib  35 (+2) / Con 35 / NDP 14 (-4) / Gre 9

 

Interesting that Ipsos has the Liberals up, tied with the Conservatives.

Ipsos usually has a Conservative lean.

NorthReport

Singh has had another great day this time in Ontario according to newscasters. Jagmeet is coming across as Mr Congeniality. It would not be surprising to see the NDP start to rebound in the polls. 

MegB

Continued here.

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