Michael Moriarity wrote:
Sean in Ottawa wrote:
I think BC will give them a few but Ontario may not produce all that much. My impression here is that support has been growing broadly but that it is not concentrated. The difference between a bunch of close, heartbreaking, seconds and wins is very thin. Ontario is extremely vulnerable to a Liberal collapse. If enough Liberal support goes Conservative, the NDP can even get the support level of last time and still lose.
I don't know about the rest of the province, but here in Hamilton, 3 of the 4 seats are NDP/Lib contests. Scott Duvall should be able to hold on in Hamilton Mountain, especially if the Libs are weakened. In my riding, Hamilton Centre, David Christopherson is retiring, but the NDP candidate will be Matthew Green, a city councillor in a ward that is included in the riding. In Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, the NDP finished a strong second in 2015, and Liberal weakness could only help.
I hope you are right and they stay that way.
The low number of incumbants give reasons to worry with these low polling numbers. Think of Kim Campbell's two seats with 16% of the vote. The NDP had 9 with under 7%. In that election the NDP seats were won mostly by incumbants. When a party has strong local incumbants their polling numbers are concentrated, without those the support tends to be wider and flatter. I admit, that despite this fear I have not gone through the current NDP ridings to see which ones appear safe.
Let's break it down a little though: the NDP has 28 seats outside Quebec. there are fears that the NDP could wash out there.
Take this poll aggrigator. https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/
They suggest NDP could get 33 seats at the levels in the poll. But if you drill down further you see the reasons for concern.
BC: NDP projected 6 seats down from 14. However, the Liberals are showing 32% and the Conservatives 33.8% Further Liberal losses could lead to increased NDP popular vote but if the conservative vote goes up significantly the NDP could lose more seats than even this projects.
Alberta: NDP Member not running again. Liberals at 20% NDP at 12. If the Liberals lose any more to the Conservatives, this seat, already without an incumbant, could be in jeapardy. This projection shows NDP holding its one seat but maybe in part becuase it does not track benefit of incumbancy.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan Again the Liberals are at nearly 20% with the Conservatives near 50%. If the Liberals lose any more to the Conservatives the NDP at half the Conservative vote could lose more. these provinces should not be looked at together since one leaned Liberal and the other Conservative in the last election. Projection of 6 might be overly optimistic in a Liberal meltdown. They had 5 last time.
Ontario in 2015 gave the CPC 35%, the Liberals 45 with the NDP 8 seats and 16% of the vote. This projection has the NDP lower in popular vote and getting 14 seats but it shows this with the Liberals and Conservatives nearly tied. A significant movement from the Liberals to the Conservatives will take away many of the three-way races that could deliver seats to the NDP even with mid-teens provincial support. The NDP would get few seats anywhere with mid-teens support if the Liberals do not have enough strength to make the races 3-way.
The Quebec poll show the NDP getting three in Quebec. This is based on a poll with the NDP at nearly 14% in Quebec and the BQ at 17. If the BQ increase and the NDP drop -- this is less likely.
Atlantic Canada: The NDP getting three with the Liberals and Conservatives nearly tied changes if either the Liberals or Conservatives pull ahead.
Now of course NDP could gain from further Liberal losses but this is not guaranateed and even if they do, a lopsided race between the two biggest parties means the NDP has to do more than gain a little to win.
My fear si the Liberals will sink so hard and fast that they will make it hard for the NDP to hold seats with anywhere near the polling results they have now.