2019 Polls

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Pondering

This election will be different as the platforms will be evaluated by the Parliamentry Budget Officer. The NDP has much of their platform out and it is going to be much more progressive than in the past. That could bring back a lot of voters from the Greens or it could lose a lot. It's one thing to present a good provincial platform entirely another to do so federally. 

The NDP has won provincial elections for decades. Federal and provincial parties are viewed very differently by the public. It helps their rep that the Greens have won provincially but it won't necessarily transmit to federal votes. Are federal Green voting intentions up particularly in the provinces that voted Green? It could be the Green vote is solid or semi-solid but I doubt it. 

The Orange Crush had everyone claiming Quebec was veering left and the Legault victory has people thinking the province is leaning right and neither are true. 

People are signaling annoyance with the Liberals but I don't get the sense that Canadians are ready to elect a party other than the Conservatives or Liberals. The Orange Crush happened with a centrist NDP, long in the tooth wounded Liberal party and newly formed Reform/Conservative party. As soon as the traditional parties recovered even though the Conservative party is a fake not the original. 

It looks like Scheer is going all low-key Trump which most voters don't yet know. 

Trudeau will begin a dramatic recovery with the beginning of the election campaign. 

I think the NDP's new direction will pay off but not hugely yet. It will take another couple of election cycles. 

I think the Greens are gaining strength federally but that by the time people are looking at their ballots they will go traditional. Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP for those who can't stand the stench. 

Debater

EKOS Poll:

Conservative Fortunes Waning as Liberal Fortunes Rise in Nearly Deadlocked Race

FORD-LED PCs HURTING SCHEER IN ONTARIO

[Ottawa – June 17, 2019] The political landscape is now clearly shifting in favour of the Liberals and to the detriment of the Conservatives. The Scheer-led Conservatives have seen their 11-point lead from just a month ago shrink to a narrow 2.7-point lead as of last night.

--

THREE-DAY ROLL UP

CON 33.6

LIB 30.9

GREEN 13.6

NDP 11.9

--

SIX DAY ROLL-UP

CON 34.2

LIB 30.1

GREEN 13.2

NDP 12.0

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/06/conservative-fortunes-waning-as-liberal-fortunes-rise-in-nearly-deadlocked-race/

NorthReport

Aggregator results

Tories in the lead

170 Seats required for majority - let’s hear it for minority governments

Cons 35.5%

Libs 30.7%

Cons 164 seats 

Libs 125 seats

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/a-new-338canada-macleans-projection-tories-in-the-lead/

NorthReport
JeffWells

The Ekos poll has the Greens beating the NDP everywhere except the Prairies and just two points behind in Ontario. Green support in BC nearly doubles the NDP. This is Kim Campbell territory.

Debater

JeffWells wrote:

The Ekos poll has the Greens beating the NDP everywhere except the Prairies and just two points behind in Ontario. Green support in BC nearly doubles the NDP. This is Kim Campbell territory.

Yes, although EKOS sometimes has more generous numbers for the Greens than some of the other pollsters, so the NDP may not be quite that low.

Still, the Greens have made some big gains both provincially and federally recently, and they obviously have some momentum that is being picked up by other pollsters as well.  This is a better than usual poll for the Greens, but it is still a warning sign for the NDP (& perhaps the other parties as well).

Debater

The Greens put this out today, so they are certainly taking advantage of the opportunity:

Paladin1

not poll related

Debater

New Nanos poll shows drop in Conservative support.  Liberals and Conservatives tied.

Nanos Weekly Tracking (ending June 21, 2019)

Conservatives (33) (-1.2)

Liberals (33) (+2.2)

NDP (17) (+0.1)

Green (10) (-1.2)

People’s (1) (+0.3)

https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Political-Package-2019-06-21-FR.pdf

Debater

Forum Research - QUEBEC ONLY

(June 11-12, 1471 surveyed by IVR)

32% LIBERAL (unchanged since June 2)

25% CONSERVATIVE (+6)

18% BQ (-5)

10% GREEN (-5)

9% NDP (+3)

4% PEOPLE'S PARTY (=)

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2983/federal-horserace-qc-june-2019/

nicky

It certainly says something about the Greens that they are celebrating the NDP’s weakness.

They see the NDP as their main target, not the two leading parties. In doing so the Greens will limp across the line with half a dozen seats while delivering theConservatives something close to a majority.

Debater

You could be right about that.

I think that if the Conservatives come back to power again, there will be pressure put on the Liberals, NDP & Greens to work together/merge, etc. the way there was back in the Harper era.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

If the Greens do indeed elect a few MP's this time around it will be interesting to see what a Green party might look like. So far we have only seen the EMay Show not much of a party in sight. Besides her family, who are the movers and shakers in that party?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

You could be right about that.

I think that if the Conservatives come back to power again, there will be pressure put on the Liberals, NDP & Greens to work together/merge, etc. the way there was back in the Harper era.

Said the person who relentlessly brought that pressure in that era in this forum.

And we all know that by "work together" you meant then, and still mean today, that all Green or NDP voters should feel obligated to vote Liberal, while Liberal supporters should never feel any obligation to vote NDP or Green, even if the Liberals have no chance of winning in the riding where those voters live.

 

 

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

Debater wrote:

You could be right about that.

I think that if the Conservatives come back to power again, there will be pressure put on the Liberals, NDP & Greens to work together/merge, etc. the way there was back in the Harper era.

Said the person who relentlessly brought that pressure in that era in this forum.

And we all know that by "work together" you meant then, and still mean today, that all Green or NDP voters should feel obligated to vote Liberal, while Liberal supporters should never feel any obligation to vote NDP or Green, even if the Liberals have no chance of winning in the riding where those voters live.

 

 

You're not the only one who feels this way Ken.

NDPP

Confused and Worried: CBC News Poll Takes Snapshot of Canadians Ahead of Fall Election

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cbc-election-poll-1.5188097

"Poll finds high levels of anxiety and a low level of confidence in politicians ahead of fall election. Fully 88 per cent of those polled said they feel that politicians care more about staying in power than doing what's right..."

Entirely correct. Good to see people finally figuring it out.

JeffWells

EKOS poll, June 29:
Con 34.1%
Lib 31.6%
Grn 12.6%
NDP 9.7%
PP 5.7%
BQ 3.8%

The NDP leads nowhere, is the fourth party behind the Greens everywhere but Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and is the fifth party, behind even the People's Party, in Alberta and Atlantic Canada.

With this regional breakdown the NDP could easily not elect a single MP.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1145524356652707840

brookmere

NDPP wrote:
Fully 88 per cent of those polled said they feel that politicians care more about staying in power than doing what's right..."

Different people have widely varying and contradictory views on what is "right". Any party that wants to stay in power, or even win a reasonable number of seats, is going to take positions that appear "wrong" to a good number of people at any given time. The problem IMHO is that the electorate has become tribalized enough that a lot of people think listening to someone with views other than their own is doing the "wrong" thing.

Debater

JeffWells wrote:

EKOS poll, June 29:
Con 34.1%
Lib 31.6%
Grn 12.6%
NDP 9.7%
PP 5.7%
BQ 3.8%

The NDP leads nowhere, is the fourth party behind the Greens everywhere but Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and is the fifth party, behind even the People's Party, in Alberta and Atlantic Canada.

With this regional breakdown the NDP could easily not elect a single MP.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1145524356652707840

It's probably not going to come to that.  The NDP still has some strongholds.

Vancouver East, a couple of the Hamilton ridings, the Windsor ridings, Charlie Angus in Northern Ontario, and possibly Alexandre Boulerice in Montreal.  And maybe a few others, as well.

But it does show the NDP is in a bad way.

Pondering

NDPP wrote:

Confused and Worried: CBC News Poll Takes Snapshot of Canadians Ahead of Fall Election

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cbc-election-poll-1.5188097

"Poll finds high levels of anxiety and a low level of confidence in politicians ahead of fall election. Fully 88 per cent of those polled said they feel that politicians care more about staying in power than doing what's right..."

Entirely correct. Good to see people finally figuring it out.

Lack of trust in politicians is nothing new and Conservatives love it. If you can't trust politicians then you don't want to give them your tax dollars. Better to have small governments. 

 It turns out that politicians don’t fare well: 50% of respondents said that they “do not trust” politicians, whereas only 25% said the same of CEOs. 

https://www.canadianbusiness.com/blogs-and-comment/canadians-trust-ceos-more-than-politicians-but-not-much-more/

So 50% trust politicians but 75% trust CEOs.  There will be no revolution with 75% trusting CEOs. 

R.E.Wood

Debater wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

EKOS poll, June 29:
Con 34.1%
Lib 31.6%
Grn 12.6%
NDP 9.7%
PP 5.7%
BQ 3.8%

The NDP leads nowhere, is the fourth party behind the Greens everywhere but Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and is the fifth party, behind even the People's Party, in Alberta and Atlantic Canada.

With this regional breakdown the NDP could easily not elect a single MP.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1145524356652707840

It's probably not going to come to that.  The NDP still has some strongholds.

Vancouver East, a couple of the Hamilton ridings, the Windsor ridings, Charlie Angus in Northern Ontario, and possibly Alexandre Boulerice in Montreal.  And maybe a few others, as well.

But it does show the NDP is in a bad way.

Adding up the strongholds you list doesn't get to official party status. But perhaps a few new wins will also emerge, like Svend Robinson, who then might be in a favoured position to replace Singh when he's inevitably forced to resign. 

josh

Nanos:

Liberal 35 Cons 32 NDP 17 Greens 10

https://twitter.com/PollWatchCanada/status/1146094967288401920

JeffWells

R.E.Wood wrote:

Adding up the strongholds you list doesn't get to official party status. But perhaps a few new wins will also emerge, like Svend Robinson, who then might be in a favoured position to replace Singh when he's inevitably forced to resign. 

Svend as leader might be the only thing that could make these years of wasted opportunity and decline worthwhile. Otherwise, I'd say scrap the party altogether and start again.

Debater

I don't think Svend will be running for leader.  He's in his late 60's, and while it may be common to elect older leaders in the U.S. (eg. Trump who is in his 70's) it's not as common in Canada.

Svend is actually older than Mulcair, and the NDP wanted to make generational change at the top, as did the Liberals and Conservatives (Scheer is younger than Trudeau).

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP had a chance to be relevant and instead it elected Alexa McDonough. Jack won because Svend chose not to run again and instead supported him. I see him as a potential Corbyn figure who can attract younger voters. I think that the NDP can only be renewed by having its head office in Ottawa cleaned out and making its caucus egalitarian instead of leader centric.

I volunteered for Svend on many campaigns not the NDP. I currently live in Gord Johns riding and he too has earned my vote by his work as an MP.  The central party has always been irrelevant to my support of the MP's in the two ridings I have lived in since 1993. I think many votes in BC are up for grabs this election. The Liberals has the kind of breakthrough here that the NDP had in Quebec under Jack. I wonder if the Liberals will see the same "reversing falls" effect this election

Debater

kropotkin1951, Svend was definitely one of the most prominent and recognizable NDP MPs for many years.  He was one of a small number of NDP MPs who became known across Canada rather than just in his own riding.  He made an impact as Canada's first openly-gay MP and took strong positions on many issues including assisted suicide/Sue Rodriguez, etc.

But let's be realistic about a couple of things.  He was probably a bit too controversial and outspoken to be a party leader, even for a left-wing party like the NDP.  And the fact that he was gay was also a big hurdle in those days.  Gay men didn't get elected as party leaders in North America back in the 1990's -- not even in left-wing parties like the NDP.  Being gay myself I admire the strides that Svend made for gay Canadians, but in those days the Canadian public was not ready for a gay leader.  It's only in the last few years that Kathleen Wynne became Canada's first openly-gay Premier and only recently that Scott Brison & Seamus O'Reagan became Canada's first openly-gay cabinet ministers.

Pondering

Dig deeper:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cbc-election-poll-demographics-1.5189750

New Canadians are still backing the Liberals, Indigenous voters have abandoned the party in droves and first-time voters are leaning disproportionately toward the New Democrats and the Greens and away from the Conservatives — if they intend to vote at all.

That bodes well for the future of the NDP,  The NDP was never going to win this election. I consider it an opportunity for the NDP to recast itself as the party willing to address climate change and income inequality. If they can establish that as their brand it will be a significant accomplishment. Both of these issues will grow under the Liberals or Conservatives. 

swallow swallow's picture

Not to be argumentative, Debater, but your know Svend Robinson came quite close to winning the NDP leadership in 1995, don’t you? The NDP was ready to put him top of the first ballot.

By that point, interesting, being gay was not a big issue for a lot of NDP members. Had Svend won, he’d have become the second openly gay federal party leader after Chris Lea of the Greens. When praising LGBT Liberals, by the way, worth a nod to Andre Boisclair, who became Parti Québécois leader in 2005. 

Sorry this is not on polls.

robbie_dee

x

Debater

swallow wrote:

Not to be argumentative, Debater, but your know Svend Robinson came quite close to winning the NDP leadership in 1995, don’t you? The NDP was ready to put him top of the first ballot.

By that point, interesting, being gay was not a big issue for a lot of NDP members. Had Svend won, he’d have become the second openly gay federal party leader after Chris Lea of the Greens. When praising LGBT Liberals, by the way, worth a nod to Andre Boisclair, who became Parti Québécois leader in 2005. 

Sorry this is not on polls.

Yes, I'm aware Svend finished first on the first ballot.  However, it was calculated that Svend probably wouldn't have been able to win the leadership when the other ballots came in, so he threw his support to Alexa.

And yes, Boisclair did become PQ Leader in the mid 2000's, but his sexuality was an issue for some Quebec voters at that time, with a Quebec radio host calling him a "tapette", and he later lost the Quebec election and resigned from politics not long after.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Debater when Svend ran as an openly gay man the accepted wisdom was that it would cost him votes. It didn't cost him but led to a larger plurality than he received in previous elections. As for him being to left wing well guess what all the issues he ran on are still in play and he is still on the right side of history with them. Too bad we got Mulcair when the opportunity arose for the NDP. I was right that when given a choice between two liberal parties Canadians just vote for the Liberal Party not its pale imitation.

Debater

Mulcair was flawed, but he did have experience, an understanding of Quebec and was considered a good 'debater' in the House of Commons.  The NDP was in a much stronger position 4 years ago at this time under his leadership than it is now.

As for Svend, he did make history as the first openly-gay MP in Canada, but it also took its toll.  I remember Jack Layton saying once that he listened to the audio of some of the hateful anti-gay phone calls that Svend used to receive at his constituency office.

Debater

Getting back to polls, here's Nik Nanos on CTV today discussing the new poll posted by Josh above at #423:

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1721774&binId=1.1145518&playlistPageNum=1

R.E.Wood

Debater wrote:

Getting back to polls, here's Nik Nanos on CTV today discussing the new poll posted by Josh above at #423:

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1721774&binId=1.1145518&playlistPageNum=1

I'd suggest most here shouldn't bother watching this video as they only discuss the Liberals and Conservatives, but don't bother to speak a word about the NDP's or Singh's current status across the country (although they do talk about Mulcair, and how he blew the NDP's campaign last election).

josh
Debater

So it looks like Abacus, Nanos & Ekos all show that there is a close Liberal-Conservative race.

NorthReport

Actually it looks like a disaster in the making for the Liberals as the Conservatives lead in the 14 of the 15 most recent polls. Maybe the anti-Conservative vote should consider some alternatives to the Liberals, eh!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#National

Debater

New Abacus Poll:

Preferred PM:

Justin Trudeau (35%)

Andrew Scheer (31%)

Elizabeth May (14%)

Jagmeet Singh (13%)

Maxime Bernier (7%)

NorthReport
Debater

But Liberals "gaining ground" according to that projection site.

josh

Nanos:

LPC 35

CPC 30

NDP 18

Greens 9

Bloc 5

PPC 2

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1148435563055329280

 

 

Debater

Thanks for the new Nanos poll, Josh.

Looks like the Conservatives & Greens have lost some support, and the NDP has started to recover a bit.

Interesting to see the Liberal lead starting to widen a little (in Nanos, anyway).

https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Political-Package-2019-07-05-FR.pdf

josh
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

That's a massive discrepancy between the support levels for the NDP between the Nanos and Mainstreet polls.  I know Mainstreet has demonstrated a consistent anti-NDP bias in most of it polls but...seriously...10% as compared to 18%?

Debater

Yeah, that's the biggest thing that stands out between the pollsters.  That NDP support down at 10% in Mainstreet seems too low.

The interesting thing about these two pollsters is that they both now show the Liberals overtaking the Conservatives.  But it's a close race, and all the parties have something to prove over the next 3 months.

Debater

After a stunning spring, Greens might hit their poll ceiling this summer

Poll after poll showed Greens reaching new heights — but has the party hit its peak?

Éric Grenier

Jul 10, 2019

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-greens-polls-1.5205397

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Yeah, that's the biggest thing that stands out between the pollsters.  That NDP support down at 10% in Mainstreet seems too low.

The interesting thing about these two pollsters is that they both now show the Liberals overtaking the Conservatives.  But it's a close race, and all the parties have something to prove over the next 3 months.

Those polls also seem to show the Greens have plateaued.

Debater

Yes, I posted Eric Grenier's new article on the Greens just above.

The Greens had a good Spring with the byelection win in Nanaimo-Ladysmith and becoming Official Opposition in PEI.  But they may be losing some momentum.  Liz May's recent actions (eg. offering the Green leadership to JWR may also have hurt her credibility, etc.)

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Yes, I posted Eric Grenier's new article on the Greens just above.

The Greens had a good Spring with the byelection win in Nanaimo-Ladysmith and becoming Official Opposition in PEI.  But they may be losing some momentum.  Liz May's recent actions (eg. offering the Green leadership to JWR may also have hurt her credibility, etc.)

Nothing better for your poll ratings than to treat the party leadership you've come to regard as yours by liege right as yours to simply bestow the leadership upon your personally chosen successor as if it is your private property, the wishes of your own party's rank and file be damned.  

robbie_dee

Debater wrote:

Yes, I posted Eric Grenier's new article on the Greens just above.

The Greens had a good Spring with the byelection win in Nanaimo-Ladysmith and becoming Official Opposition in PEI.  But they may be losing some momentum.  Liz May's recent actions (eg. offering the Green leadership to JWR may also have hurt her credibility, etc.)

Could be May's actions. Could also just be disgruntled Liberal voters returning home after considering their other options. I do think May has a chance to make some more waves when the campaign starts. The Greens will get more equal media coverage to the other parties then, reducing their funding disadvantage compared to the Libs and Cons. I also think the debates could work in her favor as she will be the only woman on stage and the most experienced debater by far. Trudeau did well in the debates last time but he was helped by low expectations last time and not having to carry the burden of a record in government. This time he will be on the hot seat.

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