2019 Polls

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NorthReport

The most recent poll, which is by Nanos, shows the NDP with more than double the amount of support for the Greens. Maybe we are headed towards a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power, eh! 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#National

 

robbie_dee

Toronto Star: ‘New poll says Liberals still have strong hold on Fortress Toronto

Liberals 46 Cons 26 NDP 12 Green 10. These numbers would portend another sweep of the city or close to it.

Debater

Here's the breakdown of that Toronto poll:

Debater

Jul 14, 2019

Updated seat projections from P.J. Fournier:

The Conservatives’ slide in Ontario proves costly in the overall seat projection—now a dead heat between the two main parties

CPC 148

LPC 147

NDP 23

BQ 14

GPC 5

IND 1

PPC 0

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/this-weeks-338canada-projection-all-bets-are-off/

Debater

July 15, 2019

Conservatives and Scheer falling behind in Ontario, says Campaign Research poll

Liberals also surpassed the Conservatives nationally for the first time in a year in polls by Campaign Research.

(behind a paywall, but the numbers are expected to be released soon):

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/07/15/conservatives-and-scheer-falling-behind-in-ontario-says-campaign-research-poll/208369

Debater

A 7-point lead in Ontario over the Conservatives translates into a slim lead for the Liberals nationally according to a Campaign Research poll:

Liberals: 33

Conservatives: 32

NDP: 14

Greens: 14

https://twitter.com/PollWatchCanada/status/1150874276360282113

Debater

New Nanos Poll:

LPC: 35.9% (+1.3)

CPC: 29.7% (-0.7)

NDP: 18.5% (+0.6)

GPC: 8.3% (-0.5)

BQ: 4.8% (-0.1)

PPC: 1.5% (-0.1)

nicky

There is a curious divergence in the polls about the relative strengths of the NDP and the Grrens

a number of polls show them roughly equal. A number of others show the NDP with roughly double the Green support, with the gap expanding.

i am interested in any explanation any of you may have for this discrepancy.

 

josh
NorthReport

The most recent Nanos polling who Liberals love to quote has a poll out today that shows the 3 main contenders as follows:

Libs 36%

Cons - 30%

NDP - 19%

How can this be possible as almost everything that is said here has been so dismissive of the NDP's chances. So who is wrong, Nanos or Babble's NDP haters, eh!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Regional_polls

pietro_bcc

How can this be possible as almost everything that is said here has been so dismissive of the NDP's chances. So who is wrong, Nanos or Babble's NDP haters, eh!

I can pull out a single poll that supports my conclusions too and say the NDP is at 9%, but that would be dishonest. What matters are polling averages, not a single outlier. The NDP is in the mid teens in support, which is a poor showing thus far.

WWWTT

pietro_bcc wrote:

How can this be possible as almost everything that is said here has been so dismissive of the NDP's chances. So who is wrong, Nanos or Babble's NDP haters, eh!

I can pull out a single poll that supports my conclusions too and say the NDP is at 9%, but that would be dishonest. What matters are polling averages, not a single outlier. The NDP is in the mid teens in support, which is a poor showing thus far.

Ya I don't know pietro_bcc? I don't trust polls! Especially at this point where they are used to manipulate voters heading into an election.

Sounds like you're trying to give these corporate imperialists some kind of credibility?

josh
alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Affter 4r yrs of Liberal governess,Canadians are running back to the ConJobs. This means all the progress the Liberals made (thdy made a shit ton of mistakes) are going to be murdered.

I liked their work. Austerity winding down, promisses of new affordable ands social housing for our cities, expunging the criminal record of those with cannabis infractions.

So Canadians are not any smarter than Americans. I don't wanna see or hear ANY Canadian wax nostalgia about 'how lucky we are to be Canadians and laughing and mockin the Americans. Maybe, MAYBE we are not as openly racist as thed US but we're no better.

On 2 occasions while waiting in line at the dispensary, this joker who is clearly on welfare says i'm super right wing,fuck the librerals and his classic 'liberal cocksuckers' (his words,not mine)

Well, to this completely politically confused moron and all the Canadians (and there are millions of them who think and talk the same crap) if you like the dispensary (BTW,it's not a bunch of burn outs buying cannabis,you'd be very surprised with the demographic) don't vote for those pricks, the Conservatives.

Scheer is a SoCon and their team is fillled with klansmen -----and klans women)

Here's what is going to happen. The dispensaries will be under so much regulations that it will no longer make money and shivel down to nothing and of course, everybody's favourite, plenty of austerity.

They are going to govern just like the right wing Republicans in the US, The horror show happening now is coming to a town near you. And I can garaunteee the CP caucus is going to filled with conspiracy theorists, imbeciles, racism and HUGE corporate tax cuts to the corporations and those who earn over 100K. And who is going to pay for it? You and I. The punishment I'm going to endure (because I'm guilty of being poor) is right around the corner.

Canadians voted Liberal because they hated Harper. Now just after 1 term, we get  Harpo on steroids.

So....Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray!

One last thing, If you are a hardcore right winger, move to the States, you'll have plenty of company. Just fuck off and leave.

NorthReport

Majority of Canadians want change may be the reason for the NDP’s recent stronger showing in the polls

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Majority of Canadians want change may be the reason for the NDP’s recent stronger showing in the polls

The NDP would be a great change but their poll numbers are embarrassing.

ANYTHING b ut the SoCon Trumpist Conservatives...ANYONE ANYONE ....except that prick Max Bernier.

Debater

Alan S, keep in mind that Ipsos is a conservative pollster run by the life-long conservative Darrell Bricker.  It has a history of inflating conservative numbers.

In this poll Ipsos even has the Cons ahead in Ontario, which is at odds with almost all the other pollsters which show the Scheer Cons behind in Ontario because of Ford.

Nanos & Mainstreet have the Libs ahead, so it's too early to say which pollster is correct until the election picks up steam.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Thanks, Debater

josh
Debater

Interesting.

I thought there would be a closer rematch between Liberal MP Vance Badawey and former NDP MP Malcolm Allen.

So far it looks like a Liberal vs Con race.

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