2019 Polls

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NorthReport

The most recent poll, which is by Nanos, shows the NDP with more than double the amount of support for the Greens. Maybe we are headed towards a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance of power, eh! 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#National

 

robbie_dee

Toronto Star: ‘New poll says Liberals still have strong hold on Fortress Toronto

Liberals 46 Cons 26 NDP 12 Green 10. These numbers would portend another sweep of the city or close to it.

Debater

Here's the breakdown of that Toronto poll:

Debater

Jul 14, 2019

Updated seat projections from P.J. Fournier:

The Conservatives’ slide in Ontario proves costly in the overall seat projection—now a dead heat between the two main parties

CPC 148

LPC 147

NDP 23

BQ 14

GPC 5

IND 1

PPC 0

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/this-weeks-338canada-projection-all-bets-are-off/

Debater

July 15, 2019

Conservatives and Scheer falling behind in Ontario, says Campaign Research poll

Liberals also surpassed the Conservatives nationally for the first time in a year in polls by Campaign Research.

(behind a paywall, but the numbers are expected to be released soon):

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/07/15/conservatives-and-scheer-falling-behind-in-ontario-says-campaign-research-poll/208369

Debater

A 7-point lead in Ontario over the Conservatives translates into a slim lead for the Liberals nationally according to a Campaign Research poll:

Liberals: 33

Conservatives: 32

NDP: 14

Greens: 14

https://twitter.com/PollWatchCanada/status/1150874276360282113

Debater

New Nanos Poll:

LPC: 35.9% (+1.3)

CPC: 29.7% (-0.7)

NDP: 18.5% (+0.6)

GPC: 8.3% (-0.5)

BQ: 4.8% (-0.1)

PPC: 1.5% (-0.1)

nicky

There is a curious divergence in the polls about the relative strengths of the NDP and the Grrens

a number of polls show them roughly equal. A number of others show the NDP with roughly double the Green support, with the gap expanding.

i am interested in any explanation any of you may have for this discrepancy.

 

josh
NorthReport

The most recent Nanos polling who Liberals love to quote has a poll out today that shows the 3 main contenders as follows:

Libs 36%

Cons - 30%

NDP - 19%

How can this be possible as almost everything that is said here has been so dismissive of the NDP's chances. So who is wrong, Nanos or Babble's NDP haters, eh!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Regional_polls

pietro_bcc

How can this be possible as almost everything that is said here has been so dismissive of the NDP's chances. So who is wrong, Nanos or Babble's NDP haters, eh!

I can pull out a single poll that supports my conclusions too and say the NDP is at 9%, but that would be dishonest. What matters are polling averages, not a single outlier. The NDP is in the mid teens in support, which is a poor showing thus far.

WWWTT

pietro_bcc wrote:

How can this be possible as almost everything that is said here has been so dismissive of the NDP's chances. So who is wrong, Nanos or Babble's NDP haters, eh!

I can pull out a single poll that supports my conclusions too and say the NDP is at 9%, but that would be dishonest. What matters are polling averages, not a single outlier. The NDP is in the mid teens in support, which is a poor showing thus far.

Ya I don't know pietro_bcc? I don't trust polls! Especially at this point where they are used to manipulate voters heading into an election.

Sounds like you're trying to give these corporate imperialists some kind of credibility?

josh
alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Affter 4r yrs of Liberal governess,Canadians are running back to the ConJobs. This means all the progress the Liberals made (thdy made a shit ton of mistakes) are going to be murdered.

I liked their work. Austerity winding down, promisses of new affordable ands social housing for our cities, expunging the criminal record of those with cannabis infractions.

So Canadians are not any smarter than Americans. I don't wanna see or hear ANY Canadian wax nostalgia about 'how lucky we are to be Canadians and laughing and mockin the Americans. Maybe, MAYBE we are not as openly racist as thed US but we're no better.

On 2 occasions while waiting in line at the dispensary, this joker who is clearly on welfare says i'm super right wing,fuck the librerals and his classic 'liberal cocksuckers' (his words,not mine)

Well, to this completely politically confused moron and all the Canadians (and there are millions of them who think and talk the same crap) if you like the dispensary (BTW,it's not a bunch of burn outs buying cannabis,you'd be very surprised with the demographic) don't vote for those pricks, the Conservatives.

Scheer is a SoCon and their team is fillled with klansmen -----and klans women)

Here's what is going to happen. The dispensaries will be under so much regulations that it will no longer make money and shivel down to nothing and of course, everybody's favourite, plenty of austerity.

They are going to govern just like the right wing Republicans in the US, The horror show happening now is coming to a town near you. And I can garaunteee the CP caucus is going to filled with conspiracy theorists, imbeciles, racism and HUGE corporate tax cuts to the corporations and those who earn over 100K. And who is going to pay for it? You and I. The punishment I'm going to endure (because I'm guilty of being poor) is right around the corner.

Canadians voted Liberal because they hated Harper. Now just after 1 term, we get  Harpo on steroids.

So....Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray! Hip Hip Hooray!

One last thing, If you are a hardcore right winger, move to the States, you'll have plenty of company. Just fuck off and leave.

NorthReport

Majority of Canadians want change may be the reason for the NDP’s recent stronger showing in the polls

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Majority of Canadians want change may be the reason for the NDP’s recent stronger showing in the polls

The NDP would be a great change but their poll numbers are embarrassing.

ANYTHING b ut the SoCon Trumpist Conservatives...ANYONE ANYONE ....except that prick Max Bernier.

Debater

Alan S, keep in mind that Ipsos is a conservative pollster run by the life-long conservative Darrell Bricker.  It has a history of inflating conservative numbers.

In this poll Ipsos even has the Cons ahead in Ontario, which is at odds with almost all the other pollsters which show the Scheer Cons behind in Ontario because of Ford.

Nanos & Mainstreet have the Libs ahead, so it's too early to say which pollster is correct until the election picks up steam.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Thanks, Debater

josh
Debater

Interesting.

I thought there would be a closer rematch between Liberal MP Vance Badawey and former NDP MP Malcolm Allen.

So far it looks like a Liberal vs Con race.

jerrym

In the five most recent polls from July 12 to July 19 two show the Liberals and Cons in a statisical tie within the margin of error (EKOS and Campaign Research), two show the Conservatives having a statisically significant lead (Angus Reid and Ipsos), and one shows the Liberals with a statistically significant lead (Nanos). The NDP polls are between 12.5 and 18.5 while the Greens poll between 7 and 14 for this period. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_fede...

Taking an average of all polls is not without peril because it assumes that all polls are equally valid when they are based on different modelling assumptions and information gathering techniques that likely mean some are more reliable expressions of voter intentions than others. 

These polls are bouncing all over the place for all parties which is to be expected when many people refuse to answer polls, many voters cannot be reached, and polling firms are using different methods. Polls have not  been close to matched expected results in the last UK election, Brexit, some of the EU election results in some countries, and Australia, to name a few off the top of my head. 

Take whatever conclusions you would like to take from them, but they are less accurate predictors of election outcomes than they once were. That's why I rarely comment on them. 

josh

The polls in last year’s U.S. election for House of Representatives we’re pretty much spot on.

The discrepancy here may be due to the online/phone distinction.  Conservatives tend to do better in the online polls, Liberals in the phone polls.

Debater

EKOS / July 19, 2019

LPC: 33.6% (+2.9)

CPC: 31.3% (-1)

NDP: 12.5% (+1.7)

GPC: 12.5% (-2.4)

PPC: 4.8%

BQ: 3.1%

NorthReport

‘None of the above’

Hopefully this leads to a hung Parliament

https://globalnews.ca/news/5659919/lispop-seat-projection-canadian-politics/

Debater

Recent trendlines across several pollsters seem to show an increase in support for the Liberals & NDP and a decline for the Conservatives & Greens.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Allan, you need to chill out and have a Twinkie. I understand your concern but the election hasn’t even been called yet. Anything can happen between now and October. Sheer is not a strong leader. And he lacks charisma.

And telling racists to move to the States only makes that country even worse. We need to stop racism and bigotry everywhere. We can do it and work hard to build up this country again to what it can be.

we have had so many right wing governments in power yet we are still alive. Most people who vote conservative are too ignorant to be ashamed of themselves yet they delight themselves in shooting themselves in the foot. In a sick way It almost makes me laugh especially when they turn around and ask why the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer as they vote for the parties which hurt them.

anyway, sheer is not all that he is cracked up to be and I am hoping for a minority government. It is possible.

Debater

New Abacus poll shows Conservatives dropping 1 point and Libs & Cons being in a deadlock (previous poll had Cons 1 point ahead)

July 22, 2019

32% CON (-1 since Jul. 2)

32% LIB (=)

16% NDP (=)

11% GRN (=)

4% BQ (=)

3% PPC (=)

(Jul. 12-17, 1,500 surveyed online)

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-deadlocked-at-32/

Debater

Regionally, the Conservatives hold big leads in the Prairies (30 points in AB and 21 points in SK/MB) while the Liberals have comfortable leads in Quebec (17 points) and Atlantic Canada (9 points). Ontario and British Columbia both remain very competitive with the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied.

The NDP finds itself without a region where its support is concentrated with about 17% to 19% in all regions save for Quebec where it trails in fifth place behind the Greens at only 8%. Green Party support is similarly spread out across the country with a higher concentration in BC (especially on Vancouver Island where the Greens are polling at 27% compared with 14% in the rest of the province).

Demographically, the Liberals lead by 4 among women while the Conservatives lead by 4 among men. Women are 7-points more likely to support the NDP than men. They are also 6-points more likely to support the Greens than men.

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-conservatives-deadlocked-at-32/

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Misfit wrote:

Allan, you need to chill out and have a Twinkie. I understand your concern but the election hasn’t even been called yet.

 It almost makes me laugh especially when they turn around and ask why the rich keep getting richer and the poor keep getting poorer as they vote for the parties which hurt them.

anyway, sheer is not all that he is cracked up to be and I am hoping for a minority government. It is possible.

I agree that too many of us vote against our own self interests. It's so laughable that it makes me cry.

I don't know what it's going to take to get the NDP over the 21% which would be a high at this point. I suspect the NDP should really seek out a leader who is charismatic smart and progressive. Sounds like Singh but the sad truth is Canadians are too racist to vote for someone in a turban. That Orange Bastard in DC has turned over that rock and these cockroaches are emboldened into the sunlight spreading through their land,our land and Europe.

I think Canadians wouldn't mind but they continue to vote against their interests for bullshit reasons 95% of the time. The CPC, Bernier's Neo-Nazi Party and provincial parties like the BC Liberals or the CAQ aree not selling unity. They are going to appeal to the very worst we have slithering about in our country.

Sorry for drifting off. I am infuriated by Elizabeth May now too. Oh well, right?

Thank F we have legalized weed. I'm going to take your advice and chill.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The one good thing that might come of the NDP doing badly in this election would be that it might, finally, destroy the ability of the party insiders, the alleged "pros", to perpetually impose the person they felt simply HAD to be put in as leader into the job.  Over and over and over, they pushed the idea that Singh had this special, unchallengeable magic that no other leadership candidate could possibly possess.  Over and over again, they insisted he could get votes NOBODY ELSE could get.

So much for that theory.

The only problem is that whoever succeeds Singh after what looks like heavy losses-unless he actually manages to lead the party to a net gain in seats there couldn't possibly be any case for keeping him in the job after this election-will face the task of rebuilding the party when it may be knocked down to next to nothing in seats, may not hold seats anywhere other than B.C, Sask and Manitoba, and is likely to no longer have any Quebec MPs at all.  Whoever takes over after that will almost certainly need at least TWO elections even to get the party back to anything close to respectability.  It would be nice to have the balance of power in a minority parliament, but it's a real question how the NDP could get out of the Liberals if the party had that balance but was in single figures in seats.

I'd love to see Singh prove me wrong on this, and it's too late to ditch him as leader before an election, so the party is stuck with him, but it's hard to see anything happening in this election beyond maybe keeping the vote share over 15% or so.

Debater

New poll from Research Co.

34% LIBERAL

31% CONSERVATIVE

17% NDP

10% GREEN

4% BQ

3% PEOPLE'S PARTY

(Jul. 15-17, 1,000 surveyed online)

https://biv.com/article/2019/07/poll-finds-voters-no-mood-majority-federal-government

brookmere

alan smithee wrote:
Sounds like Singh but the sad truth is Canadians are too racist to vote for someone in a turban.

The sad truth is Singh doesn't have a clue what leadership of a federal party is all about. Booting out Weir on a flimsy premise was bad enough, but effectively telling a whole province to take a hike if they didn't like it was appalling. That's just the most egregious failing, he's been subpar across the board.

But yes, after October a lot of people are going to blame the NDP's performance on what's on his head, rather than what's in it. If Singh himself can refrain from that, at least he can go down with dignity.

NorthReport

Hopefully the Bloc revival doesn’t put the Conservatives into Government

https://winnipeg.citynews.ca/2019/07/24/approval-ratings-canada-federal-election-poll/

Debater

Three New Polls Show Liberals in the Lead or Tied for 1st Place

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/07/three-new-polls-show-liberals-in-lead.html

Debater

WHITBY riding poll from Mainstreet:

CPC: 41% (-1.1)

LPC: 39.7% (-5.2)

GPC: 10% (+7.8)

NDP: 5% (-5.3)

PPC: 4% (+4)

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/07/25/conservatives-narrowly-ahead-in-gta-riding-of-whitby-suggests-mainstreet-poll/

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1154507706356682752

josh

New data from Léger/Canadian Press (Jul. 19-23, 1,536 surveyed online): 36% CON (-2 since Jun. 10), 33% LIB (+4), 12% GRN (+1), 11% NDP (-2), 4% BQ (=), 3% PPC (=), 1% OTH (=)

Nanos Research results for Quebec only reported in the Hill Times (Jun. 22-Jul. 19): 45% LIB (+15 since Jun. 21), 16% BQ (-4), 15% CON (-1), 11% NDP (-4), ~8% GRN (-3), >1% PPC (+1)

robbie_dee

Ken Burch wrote:

The only problem is that whoever succeeds Singh after what looks like heavy losses-unless he actually manages to lead the party to a net gain in seats there couldn't possibly be any case for keeping him in the job after this election-will face the task of rebuilding the party when it may be knocked down to next to nothing in seats, may not hold seats anywhere other than B.C, Sask and Manitoba, and is likely to no longer have any Quebec MPs at all. 

Eric Grenier is currently forecasting 5 seats for the NDP in B.C., 1 in Alberta, 12 in Ontario and 2 in Atlantic Canada. Goose eggs on the Prairies (MB&SK) and Quebec. I think these are a little off (I feel like Nikki Ashton and Alexandre Boulerice, for example, should have a chance at bucking the tide in MB and QC, respectively, and conversely I'm not sure who wins for the NDP in Atlantic Canada besides possibly Jack Harris in St. John's). But it does seem to me the centre of gravity in the next NDP caucus is almost certainly going to be Ontario rather than in Quebec or the West. And that's probably where Jagmeet's successor will come from as well, unless it's Ashton or Boulerice.

Debater

Each seat projection varies depending on the forecaster.  So the CBC seat projections by Grenier vary somewhat by those done by Fournier for 338 & Maclean's.

One of the challenges right now is that although there are some clear trendlines emerging in each region/province, there are some big differences in support for some of the parties.  Some polls still have the Conservatives ahead, others show the Liberals now ahead.

And the biggest difference seems to be the level of NDP vs. Green support.  Eg. pollsters like Nanos have the NDP as high as 18-19%, and others like the new Léger poll posted by Josh above have the NDP down at 11%.  That makes a big difference in the seat projections.

Debater

So long, Tory lead

This week’s projection shows no favourite, but the trend is clear: the Conservatives’ advantage has faded into the distance

by Philippe J. Fournier

Jul 28, 2019

LPC 149

CPC 147

NDP 23

BQ 12

GPC 6

IND 1

PPC 0

http://https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-latest-338canada-projection-so-long-tory-lead/

WWWTT

I'm going to suggest a new title for this thread "Predicting what pollitical party stupid voters are supporting". Or something along those lines.

NorthReport
Debater

Yeah, something we can agree on.  That Forum Poll showing the Conservatives tied with the Liberals in Quebec is out of whack with all the other pollsters.

Debater

Meanwhile, a reporter apparently managed to get his hands on 3 Conservative internal polls for Quebec showing 3 incumbent Quebec NDP MPs trailing the Liberals:

Longueuil--St-Hubert: LIB 40.4, BQ 28.6, CON ?, GRN ?, NDP 6.4

Berthier--Maskinongé: LIB 30.5, CON 27.5-28, BQ ?, NDP 9.3, GRN ?, PPC "almost 5"

Jonquière: LIB 28.7, CON 24, NDP 21.5, BQ 21

Sondages internes : Les libéraux en avance dans trois comtés NPD

https://www.985fm.ca/extraits-audios/politique/238349/politique-sondages-internes-les-liberaux-en-avance-dans-trois-comtes-npd-trudeau-teste-ses-attaques-en-vue-des-elections-maxime-bernier-au-debat

https://twitter.com/LucFortinSherby/status/1156910024368803841

https://twitter.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1157096309762822144

NorthReport

If the source is the plain brown envelopes under the door Liberals I wouldn’t bet rent money on it 

Debater

As mentioned in the Quebec french media above, the source is Conservative internal polls.

Debater

New riding poll from Mainstreet for the Québec City riding of "Québec", curently held by Liberal minister Jean-Yves Duclos, has Liberals ahead by 7 points.

Liberals, Conservatives, Bloc & Greens all up from 2015, NDP down.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/02/liberals-hold-nearly-7-point-lead-in-battleground-quebec-city-riding-says-mainstreet-poll/

swallow swallow's picture

These polls are a bit silly, though. Polls often showed Jean Chretien trailign in his riding, but what they polled was Liberal vs. BQ. Chretien always won, even though polls often showed "Liberal" behind BQ in the riding. 

Sure, Duclos leads "Conservative" and "Bloc Quebecois" in the riding of Quebec. But what we need is a poll of Ducos vs the other names on the ballot paper - including the very popular former Bloc MP Christiane Gagnon, who is running again. This area is held provincially by Quebec Solidaire, and I would think a lot of left-leaning voters may coalesce behind her (rather than the NDP). 

Similarly, the NDP is nowhere in Quebec, but I would bet Ruth Ellen Brosseau will poll well above 10%. She may even be re-elected in Berthier-Maskinonge. Riding polls are notoriously inaccurate. Riding polls testing party rather than candidate support are not worth much.

JKR

I think it’s fair to say that the general trend of recent polls indicates the NDP are in trouble heading into the election that will be called in just a month or so. I think if these are the kinds of numbers the NDP get on Election Day, the NDP are looking at winning just around 15 - 30 seats. Singh’s personal numbers indicate the NDP could do worse and win fewer seats. But, as they say, a week is a long time in politics and just one major event, maybe during a tv debate, could alter everything.

Debater

You're correct that riding polls have a certain margin of error, and so of course they aren't definitive.  They will be added into the overall collection of data that is being accumulated by the pollsters and projection models.

But they can still be accurate in picking up patterns.  And the pattern in all those riding polls, whether the Conservative internal polls, or the one done by Mainstreet, is that NDP support is way down in Quebec.  So they match up with the province-wide polling.

I think Brosseau would normally have a chance to be re-elected if NDP support hadn't fallen so far, but with the NDP being down so much in Quebec, even higher-profile NDP MPs can be in trouble, including strong ones like Brosseau and Guy Caron (who is also down right now).  The only Quebec NDP MP likely to still be ahead right now is Alexandre Boulerice in Montreal.

As for the Quebec riding itself, I agree that the race is likely to be between the Liberals & BQ.  The Conservatives are polling 2nd now, but don't have as big a name as the Liberals & BQ.  The Liberals have a cabinet minister, which will give Duclos an extra boost, and the BQ has a former long-term MP (although Gagnon is unlikely to have the same strength she had prior to 2011).

JeffWells

Ever since Megan Leslie's shocking and heartbreaking defeat in 2015 I don't know how anyone could think the NDP has a safe seat anywhere in 2019, polling as it is and trailing badly in every region.

As of right now, I think the party's most likely seat count is in the zero to high single digit range.

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