Burnaby South By-Election Monday February 25, 2019

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NorthReport

What does Canada's Oil King PM cancelling a BC Fund-Raiser yesterday because of opposition concerns about global warming and the Kinder Morgan pipeline tell you?

 

Coldwell Coldwell's picture

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Then they could beat their previous record of "less than a few".

Maybe so. But in a tight race, with low voter turnout, the also-rans could easily decide the outcome. 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Maybe so. But in a tight race, with low voter turnout, the also-rans could easily decide the outcome.

Do you know when was the last time, in a federal riding, that the Communist parties (together) won more votes than the margin between the overall winner and the runner-up?

In other words, do you recall a time when (let's say) the Libs beat the Cons by 2000 votes, but the Communist parties together got more than 2000 votes (such that their votes, if given to the Cons, would have ACTUALLY changed the outcome)?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

No, but if I had access to a database containing all the historical election results, I could certainly write a SQL query to generate a list of such instances. What you would really be looking for is the case of a very close result, several of which happen in every election, in a riding where there was one or more Communist candidates. I'm guessing there are quite a few in the 20th century that would fulfill your criterion.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

What does Canada's Oil King PM cancelling a BC Fund-Raiser yesterday because of opposition concerns about global warming and the Kinder Morgan pipeline tell you?

 

That the Oil King should go ahead with putting a national price on carbon and raising carbon fees?

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Coldwell wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:

I wonder if Maxime Bernier's new political party will find a candidate to run in Burnaby?

Am also curious to know if the Communist Party will field a candidate.  Such a candidate might attract the votes of more than a few disaffected New Democrats unhappy with the Party's damp squib centrism. If their votes contributed to Singh's defeat and hastened his departure as leader, so much the better.  That would give the Party a chance to tack left under a new leader in time for next year's election. 

At least one of the communist parties usually runs in Burnaby ridings, although not in Burnaby South last time around.

NorthReport

We must stand together against the Kinder Morgan pipeline project and all fossil fuel expansion. We have better ways to create jobs and economic opportunity.

https://twitter.com/DavidSuzukiFDN/status/989134774047576066

NorthReport

As in the USA racism is alive and well in Canada

White people yelling is not the way to talk about diversity

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/08/24/white-people-...

NorthReport

Tiny House Warriors in Blue River on front line of fight against Trans Mountain pipeline

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/brent-patterson/2018/08/tiny-house-warri...

NorthReport

 

Why I’m standing against the Trudeau pipeline. 

Writers have an obligation to tell the truth.

And we all have an obligation to our children and grand-children.

 

https://thetyee.ca/News/2018/08/28/Why-Im-Standing-Against-Trudeau-Pipeline/

NorthReport
NorthReport

Team Trudeau - it sounds like the Liberals think their name is a dirty word in BC.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Team Trudeau - it sounds like the Liberals think their name is a dirty word in BC.

It's telling that they think that the name "Trudeau" is LESS of a dirty word there.

Debater

The Federal Liberals have been using the Team Trudeau phrase since before the 2015 Election -- I don't think there's anything particularly significant about it in this case.

NorthReport

Dress it up any which way you want  a pig is a pig.

It's telling when a political party does not want to use their own name.

NorthReport

Liberal forecasts a Singh victory in Burnaby South and a minority government federally in October.

 

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/warren-political-predictions-f...

WWWTT

Debater wrote:

The Federal Liberals have been using the Team Trudeau phrase since before the 2015 Election -- I don't think there's anything particularly significant about it in this case.

Its possible that the conservatives may attack Justin aka Ignatieff 2.0. 

Could actually work better depending on the conservatives attack adds  

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Given that the by-election has(at least I think) been called, the thread title for this needs to be updated.  Even trading a "was" for the "is" would help.

Debater

Ken, I don't think the by-election has been called yet.

It's expected to be called later this month for some time in February.

brookmere

Ken Burch wrote:
the thread title for this needs to be updated.

Why bother? The thread was started before Kennedy Stewart resigned in the first place, so the title was bogus from the beginning. More generally, PMs and premiers call by-elections when it's politically expedient (hello John Horgan). In this case, part of Trudeau's agenda is to get Bernier's PPC on the ballot. As well, holding it closer to the general election makes it harder for the NDP to get rid of Singh if he loses.

JKR

Ken Burch wrote:

Given that the by-election has(at least I think) been called, the thread title for this needs to be updated.  Even trading a "was" for the "is" would help.

How about being even more mature and switching it to: "Has that dimwitted muttonhead nincompoop ninny Trudeau finally stopped being a woosy fraidy-cat about calling the Burnaby By-election?"

Debater

Is anyone interested in the Outremont by-election?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

JKR wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

Given that the by-election has(at least I think) been called, the thread title for this needs to be updated.  Even trading a "was" for the "is" would help.

How about being even more mature and switching it to: "Has that dimwitted muttonhead nincompoop ninny Trudeau finally stopped being a woosy fraidy-cat about calling the Burnaby By-election?"

Not bad.  Needs a little MORE Dr. Seuss feel than that...maybe like "Has that dimwitted nincompoop Justin Trudeaudodo finally just called the by-'lection-a-go-go-go?

JKR

We need more Dr. Seuss to help us deal with our Yertle the Turtles.

NorthReport

dp

 

NorthReport

My hunch is that in spite of the silliness from usual suspects here the Liberals are terrified of Singh so there is no way Trudeau will dare call a by-election in Burnaby South. Representation in Canada’s Parliament for the citizens of Burnaby South be damned!

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/01/02/fourth-federal-riding-falls-vacant-as-pm-poised-to-call-three-byelections-3/#.XC25fKR6qaO

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

My hunch is that in spite of the silliness from usual suspects here the Liberals are terrified of Singh so there is no way Trudeau will dare call a by-election in Burnaby South. Representation in Canada’s Parliament for the citizens of Burnaby South be damned!

My hunch is that a by-election will be called soon and the title of this thread will change again.

Sean in Ottawa

I do not think the Liberals are worried at all about Singh or the NDP right now.

It is debatable as to whether they should be. It is possible that they are correct - but also possible that they are underestimating the NDP. I do not think that they are that worried about losing a seat they do not hold now. My guess is their focus is more on taking NDP seats in Quebec than Singh's seat which they would like but are not "worried" about.

The NDP's job is to make them worried for good cause not to determine if they are.

It is not a problem for the NDP if the Liberals are not worried and should be. It is a problem if the NDP think they should be worried and they have no cause to be.

Debater

I agree, Sean.

I don't think the Liberals are "terrified of Singh" as NR amusingly says at post #227.

It's unlikely they are terrified of someone who is so low in the polls.  I think they are much more worried about Scheer & the Conservatives since they are the ones who are polling stronger than expected right now.

wage zombie

The Liberals will be happy to let the Conservatives head into an election looking good.

Debater

Yes, and the Liberals don't have to win Burnaby South anyway -- Singh does.

I think the Liberals are more interested in winning Outremont back.

NorthReport

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh demands that Justin Trudeau order by-elections, including in Burnaby South

https://www.straight.com/news/1184386/ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh-demands-j...

Debater

Singh vows he will be the one to lead the NDP into 2019 campaign

"I will absolutely be the leader that leads the New Democratic party to the 2019 general election," Singh said Monday in an interview on CTV's Power Play from his new campaign headquarters.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/singh-vows-he-will-be-the-one-to-lead-the-ndp-into-2019-campaign-1.4243690

NorthReport

For Trudeau Liberals to win in 2019, NDP has to lose

http://rabble.ca/columnists/2019/01/trudeau-liberals-win-2019-ndp-has-lose

josh
pietro_bcc

The spin that the Liberals were afraid of calling an election in Burnaby South was comical.

NorthReport
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

pietro_bcc wrote:

The spin that the Liberals were afraid of calling an election in Burnaby South was comical.

 

Well, they did literally delay it as long as they legally could.

Sean in Ottawa

If this is the date the NDP dodged a bullet. The PM could have called a long by-election period which would allow for more money to be spent and that would cause hardship for the NDP which is broke.

I suspect the delay was partly to allow Bernier's party to participate. The Liberals would want to have Bernier's party do well enough to at least contain Conservative support.

Debater

But many observers think it's probably better for the Liberals if Singh wins Burnaby South since he's considered an easy leader to beat in the General Election.

Btw, is anyone here interested in the Outremont by-election?

Unionist

JKR, on Jan. 3 wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

My hunch is that in spite of the silliness from usual suspects here the Liberals are terrified of Singh so there is no way Trudeau will dare call a by-election in Burnaby South. Representation in Canada’s Parliament for the citizens of Burnaby South be damned!

My hunch is that a by-election will be called soon and the title of this thread will change again.

My hunch is that I could use JKR's advice on buying lottery tickets!

NorthReport

The NDP haters will be be out in full force now - see the post above!

Justin Trudeau encounters large protest in Ottawa following RCMP arrests of pipeline opponents in B.C.

https://www.straight.com/news/1185301/justin-trudeau-encounters-large-pr...

Debater

Unionist wrote:

My hunch is that I could use JKR's advice on buying lottery tickets!

Hi, Unionist.

Since you live in Outremont, I'm just curious if you have any thoughts on the by-election?

brookmere

Ken Burch wrote:
Well, they did literally delay it as long as they legally could.

Nope.  Stewart resigned September 14, 2018 which means the by-election had to be called by March 14, 2019.

NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh was with Adrian Dix and Don Davies attending the BC Building Trades Bentall IV Tragedy Memorial on Monday outside in the Park near the Burrard Sky Train Station. Where was Trudeau - Skiing at Whistler?

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture
Debater

Should the thread title be changed to list all the by-elections, or should we create a separate thread for Outremont?

In the meantime, I'll post a little info on Outremont here.

Mainstreet said last week that when they last polled Outremont in August, there was a "sizeable LPC lead":

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1081203964698189824

Mainstreet and other pollsters may do some new polling now that the by-elections have been called.

It will be interesting to see whether new riding polls show another LPC lead, or whether they show a closer LPC-NDP race.

Unionist

Debater wrote:

Unionist wrote:

My hunch is that I could use JKR's advice on buying lottery tickets!

Hi, Unionist.

Since you live in Outremont, I'm just curious if you have any thoughts on the by-election?

I'm no expert. And Outremont is the most variegated mishmash of communities that you can find. But Tom Mulcair (not the NDP) wooed and won them over, and held their loyalty to the end. In both the 2007 byelection (what an exciting day that was! breaking the Lib dynasty), and the 2008 election, and 2011, he said all the right things - opposing ghettoization of the many immigrant and racialized communities; being far clearer than Jack Layton on getting Canada out of Afghanistan; promoting the Sherbrooke Declaration (first ever recognition by the NDP of Québec's right to self-determination); even supporting the Bouchard-Taylor recommendations, which everyone seems now to have forgotten. I sincerely doubt whether anyone else could have won it, let alone kept it.

So... even though I like what little I know of Julia Sánchez, and she does have some roots in the community, I am trying to bitterly resign myself to Outremont's return to the Liberal fold. It doesn't need to be that way. Please tell me I'm wrong. And in any event, I'm no NDP supporter. I voted for Amir Khadir when he was the Bloc candidate, before QS was formed. I voted for François Rebello (also Bloc), because he proved himself a good ally of the union movement. Until a party comes along at the federal level that resembles QS provincially (with all its flaws), I'll continue to vote for individuals, not parties. And I may vote "strategically", as I used to do before Tom's arrival, in an effort to find the best candidate to beat the Liberals. But these days, there are other considerations.

Why do you ask me these tough questions, hmm?

pietro_bcc

The Liberals will win Outremont in a cake walk. It was a Tom Mulcair riding, not an NDP riding.

Unionist

pietro_bcc wrote:

The Liberals will win Outremont in a cake walk. It was a Tom Mulcair riding, not an NDP riding.

Yeah, you said sort of what I said, but without rambling...

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