Burnaby South By-Election Monday February 25, 2019

414 posts / 0 new
Last post
josh
Debater

Eric Grenier's analysis of the poll:

"New Mainstreet Research poll in Burnaby South shows Jagmeet Singh ahead with 39%, followed by the Liberals' Wang at 26%, the Conservatives' Shin at 22% and the People's Party's Thompson at 9%."

"Poll was conducted in English, Cantonese and Mandarin. Suggests that Singh is giving the NDP a leader's bump in the riding, as both the LIB and CON are down and the NDP is up from 2015. The PPC score is pretty high, as well, considering the party's national polling levels."

"Riding polls can be difficult to do, particularly in a diverse riding like Burnaby South where turnout among different communities can be very different. MOE of decided voters also about +/- 4 percentage points. But an encouraging first sign for Singh as the campaign begins."

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1085282773978566656

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1085283097573318662

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1085283928104157184

Mighty Middle

Don Martin just said on CTV Power Play that the NDP Caucus retreat has been cancelled and they will be using that time for their MPs to help out on the ground in Burnaby to campaign for Jagmeet Singh.

Sean in Ottawa

There is an uncomfortable question raised by this poll: the difference between the voting preferences naming the leaders and the voting preferences when candidates are named.

When you name the leaders you get this order of preference:

Liberals- Trudeau PM, and leader white guy with French name

Conservatives- Sheer, leader white guy

NDP- Singh leader POC.

People's party, Bernier, leader with French name

Then when you name the candidates you get a different result

NDP Singh, POC but the most well-known -- up 11

Liberal, POC, Chinese - one of two Chinese names -- down 10

Conservative, POC Chinese - another one of two Chinese names -- down 7

People's party, only white person, extreme conservative, racist, homophobic, transphobic -- suddenly up by 8 to 9 almost 8 times the vote.

Yes some rounding differences etc.

The presumptive advantage of being Chinese in the Chinese community is split between two parties who are much lower now than they were naming leaders. The Conservative loses about 25% of support to the ultra conservative.

It is not unreasonable to think that several things are going on and not all nice things:

1) Yes Singh with a bump - perhaps leader's benefit. Perhaps, if you like conspiratorial thinking, even some other party supporters wanting him to succeed now to fail later? Perhaps becuase he is not in as much trouble as some think. Lots to probe here.

2) Potential dynamic among Liberal and Conservative supporters diving once non-white canddiates, both Chinese are named. Racism is not completely unfair in speculation. Also given that a leader is in the race, there could be the usual dynamics both to want a leader as MP, to want a leader seen as weak, or to want the NDP to offer a greater alternative to Trudeau hoping the NDP will be strong.

3) The ultra right candidate bumping to nearly 9 points is hard to see in any positive light -- hard to see this as anything but either a revolting support of the extreme right that was not even extreme enough with Libertarian Bernier but needed a hateful racist and trans/homophobe or a reach by some voters for the only white candidate. None of this looks anything but revolting and a possible combination of revolting.

Hard to know if seeing Singh up represents true hope or something else but you take hope when you can get it...

Another reminder: Quito Maggie's outfit is the only one that saw a Steven Harper majority in 2015 when polling during the early summer.

 

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

There is an uncomfortable question raised by this poll: the difference between the voting preferences naming the leaders and the voting preferences when candidates are named.

When you name the leaders you get this order of preference:

Liberals- Trudeau PM, and leader white guy with French name

Conservatives- Sheer, leader white guy

NDP- Singh leader POC.

People's party, Bernier, leader with French name

Then when you name the candidates you get a different result

NDP Singh, POC but the most well-known -- up 11

Liberal, POC, Chinese - one of two Chinese names -- down 10

Conservative, POC Chinese - another one of two Chinese names -- down 7

People's party, only white person, extreme conservative, racist, homophobic, transphobic -- suddenly up by 8 to 9 almost 8 times the vote.

 

Oddly enough, she's at 4.7% with english speakers, 13.1% with Cantonese speakers and 19.6% with Mandarin speakers.

(Small sample though with the latter two.)

NorthReport

Which confirms my hunch that the Liberals could finish third

Debater wrote:

Eric Grenier's analysis of the poll:

"New Mainstreet Research poll in Burnaby South shows Jagmeet Singh ahead with 39%, followed by the Liberals' Wang at 26%, the Conservatives' Shin at 22% and the People's Party's Thompson at 9%."

"Poll was conducted in English, Cantonese and Mandarin. Suggests that Singh is giving the NDP a leader's bump in the riding, as both the LIB and CON are down and the NDP is up from 2015. The PPC score is pretty high, as well, considering the party's national polling levels."

"Riding polls can be difficult to do, particularly in a diverse riding like Burnaby South where turnout among different communities can be very different. MOE of decided voters also about +/- 4 percentage points. But an encouraging first sign for Singh as the campaign begins."

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1085282773978566656

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1085283097573318662

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierCBC/status/1085283928104157184

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Burnaby has a Taiwanese immigrant community, a Mainland China immigrant community and an diaspora Chinese immigrant community plus Canadians of Chinese descent who have been in Burnaby for generations. There is no Chinese vote anymore than there is a white vote.

The reason why the People's candidate is doing well among some Chinese speakers is she is a religious nut who hates gays. In Burnaby a large segment of the Chinese Christian community have actively opposed proper sex education since at least 2011. Municipally they ran under the banner of the Burnaby First Coalition. Heather Leung in 2018 came in 14th for one of eight positions on Burnaby counsel.  There is a constituency for the homophobia that the PPC spews but those people have never gotten any of their spokespeople elected locally.

Nearly 100 concerned parents and citizens, many of them members of Burnaby’s Willingdon Church and nearly all of Asian descent, crowded into the packed board room holding handmade signs that read “No to 5.45.”

The Burnaby Board of Education’s policy 5.45 aims to protect the rights of gay students. However, some concerned parents claim the draft is nothing more than reverse discrimination, an infringement of human rights and, if adopted, an invasion on parental rights.

“I agree that schools should protect all our children from discrimination and harm,” says Heather Leung. “But there is no need to single out certain groups by setting up administrative regulations and strategies for the sake of promotion.

https://www.dailyxtra.com/opponents-pack-burnaby-school-board-meeting-7589

NorthReport
brookmere

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
2) Potential dynamic among Liberal and Conservative supporters diving once non-white canddiates, both Chinese are named.

The Conservative candidate, Jay Shin, is of Korean not Chinese descent. The difference may not be apparent to you but it is to the respective communities.

 

Mighty Middle
Sean in Ottawa

brookmere wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
2) Potential dynamic among Liberal and Conservative supporters diving once non-white canddiates, both Chinese are named.

The Conservative candidate, Jay Shin, is of Korean not Chinese descent. The difference may not be apparent to you but it is to the respective communities.

 

I heard the person was Chinese. Yes I know the difference without you being a jerk.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Shin is a very common Korean name and unlike some Korean names it is not a normal Chinese surname. If you look at Burnaby's MLA's and you will find the diversity that is at the heart of that city. I lived there and my son went to school in Burnaby. His classmates were much like anywhere in Canada that has a large immigrant population. Their parents may have been Chinese or Ukrainian or Polish or Korean but they were all Canadian. There are areas of ethnic businesses in Burnaby but most neighborhoods are not ethnic but class based. The people of Burnaby are not focusing on the ethnicity of the candidates so maybe babblers should turn that page as well.

JeffWells

In related news, the Liberal candidate has quit, for posting on social media that Singh was of "Indian descent." 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wang-resigns-singh-burna...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Yup and she got dumped faster than a speeding bullet. The inane thing is that she is an immigrant from Mainland China while Singh was born in Scarborough. The other really politically stupid thing with her comment is that many of the Taiwanese community were strong Bill Siksay supporters.This dud of a candidate lost in the provincial election to an NDP candidate of Taiwanese Chinese ethnicity.  I suspect that those voters are going to continue voting NDP.

robbie_dee

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Shin is a very common Korean name and unlike some Korean names it is not a normal Chinese surname.

Shen would be the similar-sounding, romanized Chinese surname.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Shin is a very common Korean name and unlike some Korean names it is not a normal Chinese surname.

Shen would be the similar-sounding, romanized Chinese surname.

That is absolutely correct.

NorthReport

When I heard that Team Trudeau were picking up ex BC Liberal hacks I thought Team Trudeau’s Wang might have had a chance to finish third.

Boy Team Trudeau sure proved me wrong!

Interesting connection between Team Trudeau and the very right-wing BC Liberals 

Will Trudeau apologise again today for his Christy Clark protégée candidate foul mouth after another one of his First Nation apologies yesterday 

Jusk askin!

Jagmeet now needs to get his ass over to Outremont

You go boy! 

NDP lookin’ better and better with each passing day

NorthReport

I think Wang should be investigated - is she appropriate to be running daycares? Check out the inspection reports as well while you are at it.

robbie_dee

NorthReport wrote:

I think Wang should be investigated - is she appropriate to be running daycares? Check out the inspection reports as well while you are at it.

Lock her up?

NorthReport

Is that Team Trudeau’s response in their attempt to try and justify their foul-mouthed candidate

WTF!!!

robbie_dee wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

I think Wang should be investigated - is she appropriate to be running daycares? Check out the inspection reports as well while you are at it.

Lock her up?

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

I think Wang should be investigated - is she appropriate to be running daycares? Check out the inspection reports as well while you are at it.

Lock her up?

Thanks I needed a good laugh.

Unionist

Quote:
In response to Wang's resignation, Singh told CBC: "I intend to represent everyone, whether their background is Korean, Sri Lankan, Chinese, European, Japanese, South Asian, Vietnamese, African or Indigenous — anyone who calls Burnaby South their home."

What does he have against Latin Americans who call Burnaby South their home? And Middle Easterns? And isn't Sri Lanka part of South Asia... why do they get double billing? Etc. Mi casa es su casa.

I think he should be investigated.

NorthReport

Well Liberals ya fucked up Plan A!

What’s Plan B and maybe Plan C and even Plan D

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Yes indeed since Latin Americans do make up 2% of Burnaby's population. I posted a link that includes the demographics. To highlight the stupidity of the term visible minority one sees that the total visible minority population of Burnaby is 63%. People of Chinese descent and people of European descent are almost equal at about a third each. However the idea that all European immigrants share the same culture or politics is as absurd as thinking that all Chinese immigrants share the same culture and politics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnaby#People_and_politics

 

NorthReport

I think a cursory check of Wang's background would have shown several red flags but Team Trudeau Liberals know everything....

Burnaby South Liberal candidate quits over her racial comments about NDP leader

Karen Wang wrote that as the only Chinese candidate, she could beat Jagmeet Singh, noting he is Indian

 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wang-resigns-singh-burna...

NorthReport

This rearing of ra acial comment directed at NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is starting to smell and does not look good on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau!

Team Trudeau my ass!

Liberal candidate Karen Wang resigns from Burnaby South byelection following WeChat post singling out Jagmeet Singh’s race

NDP MP Nathan Cullen calls the prime minister’s silence ‘troubling,’points out Wang resigned and Trudeau didn’t fire her.

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/01/16/federal-liberal-candidate-k...

Unionist

Thanks for posting that link, without reading the thread and not noticing that Jeff Wells started this whole conversation with the same link.

But I think this story puts a whole different perspective on the issue:

Totally different story never posted before in this thread, not even once I tell you!

NorthReport

Sucks eh Unionist for you to see your dreams smashed in Burnaby South.

Better luck in Outremont, eh!

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Sure, it's good that she stepped down and all, but that doesn't change the fact that now everyone knows that Singh is of Indian descent.

How do you un-fry that egg??

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Actually he is of settler descent, a second generation Canadian. For an immigrant to try and play the ethnicity card was the height of political stupidity. That rallying cry from a right wing Mainland Chinese immigrant would not be well received given the number of leftist Taiwanese voters in the area, as well, at least half of the of the people who are ethnic Chinese are in fact Canadian by birth and culture.

Unionist

NorthReport wrote:

Sucks eh Unionist for you to see your dreams smashed in Burnaby South.

Better luck in Outremont, eh!

Thanks, NR! By the way, have you read this: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wang-resigns-singh-burna...

 

WWWTT

This thread is getting ugly. 

这个补选改变了难看。很多种族主义

NorthReport
NorthReport

Talking about seriously right-wing politics Team Trudeau can’t seem to stay away from the disgraced BC Liberals or the Conservatives for their candidates

Disgraced Karen Wang, a former Christy Clark protege, and former BC Liberal candidate, federally was initially refused as a candidate by the Conservatives, before Team Trudeau brought her on board, and is now being replaced  by Team Trudeau by another Former BC Liberal, this time surprise, surprise, another defeated BC Liberal candidate

This whole Liberal stink smacks of the Christy Clark / Mark Marissen / Paul Martin connections 

 

NorthReport
Debater
NorthReport

More to the point does Team Trudeau?

Karen Wang disgraced herself with the politics of division

Does Wang understand the depth of her insult to Canada?

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2019/01/18/karen-wang-di...

 

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport
WWWTT

NorthReport wrote:

More to the point does Team Trudeau?

Karen Wang disgraced herself with the politics of division

Does Wang understand the depth of her insult to Canada?

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2019/01/18/karen-wang-di...

 

Garbage liberal apologetic star article you posted North Report! Waste of time. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Here is some background on Mr. Lee. The recall campaign did not succeed but he was defeated in the next election.

According to Heighton, the main complaints about Lee are that he doesn't do enough, and that he's invisible.

https://www.burnabynow.com/news/burnaby-teacher-leading-charge-to-oust-m...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lee_(Canadian_politician)

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

In the meantime local news in Burnaby is certainly not going to help the Liberal campaign. This fire was within a few hundred meters of the Kinder Morgan Tank farm. The pipeline for pundits is an issue, for many people who live in Burnaby it is a disaster in waiting and that is no matter what their political leanings are.

The fire was at the east end of Aubrey Road on land right next door to the Kinder Morgan tank farm. The fire did not spread to the tank farm, nor did it impact a house on the other side of the property. Nobody was injured.

 

 The building was fully engulfed when firefighters arrived on scene.

“It was a substantial fire to begin with,” Mawhinney said.

It took about 45 minutes to finally put out the blaze, Mawhinney said.

Firefighting efforts were hampered because the property was at the top of an incline, which impacted water pressure. Fire crews had to connect together hundreds of feet of hose from the nearest hydrant.

Mawhinney said the initial concern was because the fire was so close to the tank farm, adding that the winds were favourable and the nearby trees benefited from the wet conditions. 

Mawhinney said if this fire had happened during the hot summer months, it likely would have been a much different story. 

https://www.burnabynow.com/news/burnaby-mountain-workshop-explodes-into-...

NorthReport
robbie_dee

Lee seems like a credible candidate but he represented a different area of Burnaby provincially than is covered by the federal seat, never made cabinet despite sixteen years in the legislature with the then-governing party, and lost in 2017. Despite purportedly having been interested in the federal Liberal nomination, Lee was "too busy" to actively seek it before it unexpectedly became available in the middle of the byelection campaign. It is hard to know how aggressively he will fight the campaign. If the purpose of the Liberal campaign in Burnaby South is to make Jagmeet work for the seat, I suspect Lee's appointment as candidate will do the trick. But I would have to think Jagmeet is still the heavy favorite to win.

Mighty Middle

This was a contested nomination, so perhaps Lee did not want to go through the nomination process of having to sell memberships. Because after Karen Wang got turfed, Lee was fine being appointed (or parachuted) into the riding by Trudeau - without having to go through a contested nomination process.

NorthReport

Why was Lee defeated by Janet Rutledge in the last BC election when he was a candidate for the right-wing BC Liberals?

NorthReport

Why was Lee defeated by neophyte Janet Routedge in the last BC election when he was a candidate for the right-wing BC Liberals?

Debater

Because the BC Liberals had been in power for years & years and voters wanted a change?

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Why was Lee defeated by Janet Rutledge in the last BC election when he was a candidate for the right-wing BC Liberals?

An 8-10% Liberal-NDP vote swing like in the other Burnaby ridings.

Pages