Can Edith Loring-Kuhanga defeat Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands?

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NorthReport
Can Edith Loring-Kuhanga defeat Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands?

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NorthReport
NorthReport

I think she can, and here are few of the reasons why.

Apart from the 2008 election where the NDP candidate withdrew, the NDP has been on a steady increase in the riding since the 2000 election where they came fourth, third in the 2004 election, and second in the 2006 election (Thank's to Pundits Guide for the election result details).

Edith is a First Nations woman with deep roots in the community, having lived there for the past 25 years.

Edith is a Saanich school trustee and is a memeber of the school district's green committee.

Edith is a graduate of the University of Victoria

Edith is a successful small busiess owner

Edith is the recipient of the YMCA Woman of Distinct Award   

Gary Lunn fired Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission President Linda Keen

 

Quote:
The commission ordered the reactor to close on Nov. 18 over safety concerns about the emergency power system not being connected to cooling pumps, as required to prevent a meltdown during disasters such as earthquakes.

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2008/01/16/keen-firing.html

ottawaobserver

I had a chance to meet her briefly in Ottawa last year. She will make an excellent MP.

NorthReport

Get short, timely messages from Edith Loring-Kuhanga.
Twitter is a rich source of instantly updated information. It's easy to stay updated on an incredibly wide variety of topics. Join today and follow @EdithLK.
http://twitter.com/EdithLK

NorthReport
NorthReport

I suppose Gary Lund/Harper will not be firing the person that requested this in light of the Japanese Fukushima nuclear plant situation.

 

Canadian nuclear watchdog requests review

 

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2011/03/18/tech-nuclear-review-945.html

mmphosis

Maybe.  Maybe not.

NorthReport
pcml

No

 

Not even close !!

 

The liberal may though

 

West Coast Greeny

Edit: (Actually, I'm being a bit of a jackass here)

NorthReport

Could you be a little more specific?  Isn't that more of a wish as I don't see any reasons supporting why you would suggest that.

pcml wrote:

No

 

Not even close !!

 

The liberal may though

 

pcml

If 4th place is a win I guess you will think she did

She does not stand a chance..period

Again we can look back later but this is my view today

 

4th place for her

Stockholm

Actually, given the shambolic Liberal campaign and the fact that the NDP came in second in SGI in 2004 and 2006 wheh they actually had a candidate - I think that realistically, Lunn will win by about 10 points, May will be a distant second, followed by Loring-Kuhanga and with the Liberal dead last. I think May will cannibalize the Liberal vote like crazy - but in the end, the ony winner from having her on the ballot will be Gary Lunn.

ghoris

The 2008 results were an aberration for the Grits, who benefitted from the lack of an NDP candidate and the fact that their candidate, Briony Penn, was a "crypto-Green" candidate who drew lots of former Green voters into her tent.

I've always said that the stupidest political decision of the last twenty years was Elizabeth May's decision to run an unwinnable race against Peter MacKay in Central Nova, where there was no Green Party base to build on, the Liberals had previously finished a poor third, and MacKay still retained some personal popularity. I cannot understand why she did not run in Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2008.  It was one of the strongest (if not the strongest) Green ridings in Canada.  The Liberals would have stood aside for her per their electoral pact, and (as it turned out) the NDP had no candidate, giving her a clear run at Gary Lunn, who at the time was Natural Resources Minister and whose defeat would have had much more "symbolic" value for the Greens than knocking off MacKay. I firmly believe that if Elizabeth May had run in Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2008, she would today be Canada's first elected Green MP.  Instead, she made the completely idiotic decision to run in Central Nova, I guess to "prove a point". She proved a point, all right - that she and the Green Party "brain trust" have no political smarts whatsoever.

I think she has no chance of winning (running in her third seat in yet another province), but I agree with Stock: she will ensure that Gary Lunn gets in - yet again - with 35% of the vote.

contrarianna

Stockholm wrote:

Actually, given the shambolic Liberal campaign and the fact that the NDP came in second in SGI in 2004 and 2006 wheh they actually had a candidate - I think that realistically, Lunn will win by about 10 points, May will be a distant second, followed by Loring-Kuhanga and with the Liberal dead last. I think May will cannibalize the Liberal vote like crazy - but in the end, the ony winner from having her on the ballot will be Gary Lunn.

If the concern was actually defeating Lunn, the parties most likely running 3rd and 4rth (Libs and NDP, not necessarily in that order) would more obviously earn the "spoilers" label.

The high profile for May as party leader will likely mean a distance between her and the other also-rans.

The historical showing for the NDP in SGI is not as you depicted--though historically this is a new ball game for Green with the leader running.

The only time the NDP even came in 2nd (since the laudable Lynn Hunter won in 1988), was the near tie with the Libs for 2nd/3rd in 2006

Conservative     Gary Lunn     24,416     37.15%     
New Democrat     Jennifer Burgis 17,455     26.54%         
Liberal     Sheila Orr     17,144     26.08%         

But in 2004:

Conservative     Gary Lunn     22,050     34.57%     
Liberal     David Mulroney     17,082     26.78%          
New Democrat     Jennifer Burgis 13,763     21.58%

Lens Solution

May also would have had a chance in Guleph had she not damaged her relationship with the Green riding association there.  The former Green candidate quit and blamed her strategic voting campaign for his loss.

NorthReport

So the NDP* went up from 8% in 2000 to 27% in 2006, whereas the Greens have gone down from 17% in 2004 to 11% in 2008   

*NDP candidate withdrew in 2008 but name remained on the ballot

2008 election results

Cons - 43%

NDP - 6%

Libs - 39%

Grns - 11%

 

2006 election results

Cons - 37%

NDP - 27%

Libs - 26%

Grns - 10%

 

2004 election results

Cons - 35%

NDP - 22%

Libs - 27%

Grns - 17%

 

2000 election results

Cons (CA & PC) - 53%

NDP - 8%

Libs - 32%

Other - 6%

Stats obtained from  http://www.punditsguide.ca/riding/?riding=1239

West Coast Greeny

Well, there is absolutely no chance any of the other candidates will win if Lunn earns 44% of the vote again. He would have to be pulled down to at most 38%, hopefully around 30%. 

May ran second in both London NC and Central Nova with around 30% of the vote, and I see no reason why she would do any worse than that in a riding that has already voted 17% Green once. Also, unlike the last two campaigns she ran in, it's pretty clear to everyone she's one of the top two candidates.

The Liberal candidate is Renee Heatherington, who just doesn't have the profile, and won't garner the stratigic votes, that Briony Penn did. She and the Liberals will run in the teens.

There is no way the NDP is finishing with 6% of the vote again, but, though Edith seems nice, she doesn't have much star power at all, and just won't rack up the 35%+ necessary to win. She'll also probably run in the teens.

It's a real shame May didn't run in SGI in 2006 ... she would have taken the seat then, especially once both Dion pulled his candidate and the New Democrat withdrew.

ottawaobserver

You mean 2008.

West Coast Greeny

I do. Thank you.

Stockholm

The thing is, who knows whether the Liberals would have been willing to withdraw their candidate in SGI in 2008 the way they did in Central Nova. It was easy for the Liberals to do that in Central Nova because they were such a distant third that they had ZERO chance fo winning so they had nothing to lose. They might have been as willing to withdraw from SGI where the Liberals had had some very solid showings. Who knows whether the dirt about Julian West of the NDP would ever have even come out  if May had run in SGI and there had been no Liberal on the ballot. We know that the Liberals went to extraordinary length to dig up the stories about West because they thought it would knowck out of the race and help Briony Penn win. I'm not sure that the Liberals would have bothered going after the NDP in SGI if they had no horse of their own in the race.

I've said it before and i'll say it again. Elizabeth May has lived in Ottawa her entire adult life. In 2008 John Baird was the minister of the Environment. She should have run in her home town of Ottawa against the Conservative Minister AGAINST the Environment.

Krago

Here are maps showing the poll-by-poll results for Saanich-Gulf Islands over the past three federal elections:

2004 electoral map

2006 electoral map

2008 electoral map

Enjoy!

Lens Solution

Stockholm wrote:

The thing is, who knows whether the Liberals would have been willing to withdraw their candidate in SGI in 2008 the way they did in Central Nova. It was easy for the Liberals to do that in Central Nova because they were such a distant third that they had ZERO chance fo winning so they had nothing to lose.

True.  The deal between Dion and May was kind of silly.  It was more symbolic than anything - it seems it was meant to demonstrate their respect for one another.  Withdrawing candidates in Central Nova and St. Laurent-Cartierville obviously didn't change anything because just as the Liberals weren't going to win in Central Nova, the Greens were never going to be a factor in St. Laurent.

Stockholm

Don't for get that the NDP had actually come surprisingly close to beating Peter McKay in Central Nova in the 2006 election, so the Liberal "hidden agenda" in promoting May in Central Nova was really all about sabotaging any chance of the NDP winning there. Let's face it the Liberals would always rather see a riding go Tory than go NDP.

pcml

Stockholm wrote:

Actually, given the shambolic Liberal campaign and the fact that the NDP came in second in SGI in 2004 and 2006 wheh they actually had a candidate - I think that realistically, Lunn will win by about 10 points, May will be a distant second, followed by Loring-Kuhanga and with the Liberal dead last. I think May will cannibalize the Liberal vote like crazy - but in the end, the ony winner from having her on the ballot will be Gary Lunn.

 

 

Now you are getting it

I am convinced thats the only reason she is still in it or politics

 

What I have seen outside of just election politics has me convinced they are actually in organized cahoots

 

Senate seat ?

And from harpercrite himself would not surprise me

 

But then I am a wayseer

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPR3GlpQQJA

 

Canada is being taken for a ride and to those aware of it

It is incredibly sad

 

(John Horgan for BC NDP leader by the way)

Lens Solution
Stockholm

Did anyone else notice that May got NO MEDIA COVERAGE WHATSOEVER this week. She was apparently in the budget lock up, but afterwards no one was interested in her reaction and she literally got blanked by the media. Its as if she doesn't exist. She is essentially now nothing but a high profile quasi-Independent candidate running in a suburban Victoria riding. Period. Contrast this with the orgy of publicity she was getting in the lead up to the 2008 election what with her getting some ex Liberal crook to become a Green MP for three days just to get her into the debate.

contrarianna

Stockholm wrote:

Did anyone else notice that May got NO MEDIA COVERAGE WHATSOEVER this week. She was apparently in the budget lock up, but afterwards no one was interested in her reaction and she literally got blanked by the media. Its as if she doesn't exist....

Yet, in spite of being ignored by the rightwing press, it will be the NDP and Liberals that will be fighting for 3rd and 4rth in SGI.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Stockholm wrote:

I've said it before and i'll say it again. Elizabeth May has lived in Ottawa her entire adult life. In 2008 John Baird was the minister of the Environment. She should have run in her home town of Ottawa against the Conservative Minister AGAINST the Environment.

I agree completely and made the same point in the thread about her.  Running around the country trying to get elected in a representative democracy is carpet bagging.  Pretending we have a system where we elect an MP to  represent a national party not a representative from a party in a riding is quirky at best.  

My guess is she comes in third to the NDP candidate in second unless the NDP squeaks in.  I really think people are not going to support her when they have other credible candidates on the environment who have lived and worked in the riding for decades.  It is a factor whether the Greens want to admit it or not. 

Kieran_Green

Progresives who want to unseat Gary Lunn will vote for Elizabeth May. She is the only one with a chance to bring him down.

Riding-specific polling shows Elizabeth neck-and-neck with Lunn with both in the low-to-mid 30% range. All other candidates are far behind. 

And the Green campaign in SGI has been hearing from grassroots NDP members in SGI they are *extremely* upset about the NDP pouring resources into SGI to deliberately prop up and ensure the election of a Conservative cabinet minister.

Stockholm

The NDP has held SGI in the past and holds one of the two provincial seats that make up SGI and came within 100 votes of winning the other. They should make some effort to win the seat. Similarly, the Liberals put up a good fight and almost won last time. They should also make an effort. Elizabeth is an extremely divisive person who is hated by large swaths of the progressive/environmental communities - she is even hated by a lot of the Green party which is why so many other ridings she wanted to run in refused to have her. If she cared about seeing gary Lunn defeated, she would run in her home riding in Ottawa and let parties with historic bases of support go after Lunn.

KenS

I'd like to see something more than an assertion about that "pouring of resources" by the NDP.

Parties are big tents, so I'm sure there are some NDP members who would prefer that it play dead in SGI. That it does not happen does not make it "poring in resources".

NorthReport

Thanks for your post K-G

Please share these unbiased, unaffiliated polling results with us, including links to to the respective pollsters websites, because until we can actually see the documented evidence of this, we will naturally have to consider it as nothing more than GP silliness. My sources tell me that May is not actually doing that well, one reason being because of her constant attacks on the NDP since she got involved in politics.

Kieran_Green wrote:

Progresives who want to unseat Gary Lunn will vote for Elizabeth May. She is the only one with a chance to bring him down.

Riding-specific polling shows Elizabeth neck-and-neck with Lunn with both in the low-to-mid 30% range. All other candidates are far behind. 

And the Green campaign in SGI has been hearing from grassroots NDP members in SGI they are *extremely* upset about the NDP pouring resources into SGI to deliberately prop up and ensure the election of a Conservative cabinet minister.

contrarianna

Stockholm wrote:

.... Similarly, the Liberals put up a good fight and almost won last time. They should also make an effort. ....

As if anyone doubted that their is at least some NDPers who would much prefer Reform Party Lunn to win over 2nd runner May.

At a time when the Reform-Cons are in striking distance of a majority.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Kieran_Green wrote:

Progresives who want to unseat Gary Lunn will vote for Elizabeth May. She is the only one with a chance to bring him down.

Thank you for providing me with my daily fix of a political talking point.  I like them when they are unadulterated by any attempts at disguise.  However since we are once more in election mode I expect to get an abundance of them from the partisans on this board.

KenS

You can attribute whatever you like for motives.

In a seat that you do not hold, but where you are a contendor, you are in it to win over the course of multiple races. Each of them is important to that goal.

If Elizabeth May was single minded about getting a seat, as she claims, and followed the advice of her own campaign managers about where to run, she would be taking that approach as well. And she HAD a better crack at winning in a repeat at London North Centre in 2008, than the cahnces she has now in SGI. Instead she has an all or none stab [including hunreds of thousands of GPC $$$ on just THIS race] in this uphill battle, or she is gone.

The rest of us- including Greens- will still be here.

 

Lens Solution

Stockholm wrote:

Did anyone else notice that May got NO MEDIA COVERAGE WHATSOEVER this week. She was apparently in the budget lock up, but afterwards no one was interested in her reaction and she literally got blanked by the media. Its as if she doesn't exist. She is essentially now nothing but a high profile quasi-Independent candidate running in a suburban Victoria riding. Period. Contrast this with the orgy of publicity she was getting in the lead up to the 2008 election what with her getting some ex Liberal crook to become a Green MP for three days just to get her into the debate.

True.  That's what the column I posted above says.  In 2008, Elizabeth May had everything going for her.  She was in the news a lot because of her special arrangment with Stephane Dion of not running candidates against each other, the environment was a bigger issue, and she had an MP cross the floor so she could claim the Greens had an MP.  Unless she gets an MP to join the Greens in the next 24 hours, she's not going to have that this time.

Lens Solution

Elizabeth May got a bit of publicity tonight.  She was interviewed on Don Martin's show.  She said she expects to win the riding of SGI, and that she expects to be invited to the leader's debate.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If Elizabeth May is serious about claiming that Greens are "progressive", she should make THIS offer to the other opposition parties:

The Liberals and NDP withdraw in favor of her in SGI, in exchange for the Greens withdrawing from ALL marginal Tory ridings, and from NDP or Liberal ridings where the Tories have a chance to gain the seat.

(and no, I'm not arguing that the Liberals are "progressive", ok?)

Is there any reason for her to object to such an arrangement if her party is really THAT committed to the "electing the leader is all that matters" strategy?

After all, she KNOWS that no pro-environmental policies at all will pass for a hell of a long time if Harper gets a majority.

janfromthebruce

Personally I don't care what May "expects" - that sounds like entitlement to me!

Aristotleded24

Lens Solution wrote:
Elizabeth May got a bit of publicity tonight.  She was interviewed on Don Martin's show.  She said she expects to win the riding of SGI, and that she expects to be invited to the leader's debate.

And should the controversey around her inclusion in the debates during the last federal election repeat itself this go around, the appropriate response would be:

"It is inappropriate for any political party to influence who is or is not included in the debates, as these are decisions made by the networks. Our main focus is on providing solutions to the challenges Canadians tell us they are facing.

Next question, please."

Lens Solution

I don't know if it's bad sign for May or not, but I was just poking around the Election Prediction site and noticed they have changed Saanich-Gulf Islands from Too Close To Call to Conservative:

 

http://www.electionprediction.org/2009_fed/riding/59024.php

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

That link isn't working.

Lens Solution

Works for me.  I wonder what's up? Undecided

I was surprised to see the prediction changed so early in the campaign.  Usually that site waits until later in the election to call high-profile races.

Perhaps some people are giving May even less chance of winning than last time?

edmundoconnor

Kieran_Green wrote:

And the Green campaign in SGI has been hearing from grassroots NDP members in SGI they are *extremely* upset about the NDP pouring resources into SGI to deliberately prop up and ensure the election of a Conservative cabinet minister.

And I take it *none* of the GPC riding association are *extremely* upset about the GPC leadership pouring every single resource the party has into a very-possibly-doomed ego trip by Elizabeth May? And that local candidates were very definitely discouraged to stand against her so she wouldn't have to go through the indignity of a nomination meeting? Money and resources can't buy you a win if there's no real support on the ground. Goodness knows, others have tried that elsewhere.

I smell worry.

NorthReport

Former Green candidate Karen Shillington seeks NDP nomination in Vancouver Centre

 

 

http://www.straight.com/article-383562/vancouver/former-green-candidate-...

Lens Solution

Harsh column on Elizabeth May in the Toronto Sun:

 

http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/david_akin/2011/03/25/17755...

contrarianna

Lens Solution wrote:

Harsh column on Elizabeth May in the Toronto Sun:

 

http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/david_akin/2011/03/25/17755...

Ain't party pimping grand.
It says it all when "progressives" cite rightwing Toronto Sun lightweights like Connie Woodcock. More wisdom from the charming Connie:

Quote:
In Alberta, the locals are sick of the oilsands being painted as the worst environmental disaster ever instead of the national treasure they are. Ducks are dying in tailing ponds — it’s the end of the world, scream the elites.

We sweating masses wonder how ducks got to be more important than people.

Elites think we’re ignorant, ill-educated and angry. Rob Ford, they think, is a vulgar oaf. Of course, these are the same people who decided Sun TV was going to be ultra-right-wing Fox News North before anyone knew anything at all about it, even Sun TV.

Stockholm

This is all 100% true from that column:

"But back in 2008, you’d have thought the party’s time had come. Environmentalism was the new religion. May was getting lots of national media attention. She even managed to get herself invited to participate in the federal party leaders’ televised debate.

She was not supposed to, but when she started whining about being excluded unfairly, public opinion was on her side and so was then-Liberal leader Stephane Dion. (They had a cozy little arrangement not to run candidates against each other as well.)

When the debate took place, she proved herself shrill, annoying and downright rude, interrupting Stephen Harper repeatedly and providing a background chant of “He just doesn’t get it,” to his remarks.

She shouldn’t have been there. The Greens are still a fringe party and they won’t be able to participate fully in the process until they elect someone. The only reason they continue to exist on the edge of national politics is the federal election financing rule that gives each party taxpayers’ money for every vote."

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Unfortunately, you've somewhat missed the point of that article, which was to bash May in support of abolishing public financing of political parties, as the last sentence of your quote illustrates.

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