Canada’s 43rd Election Results & Analysis

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NorthReport
Canada’s 43rd Election Results & Analysis

Thank you to everyone here for such a wide variety of political comments and good luck to all of you as well as the election returns arrive later on today.

And thank you to Rabble, Meg and everyone who works here and helps to make this discussion board possible and for putting up with us

Just curious what media folks are going to get their election news coverage from tonite? 

Aristotleded24

Here is the seat count that I predict:

NL
Liberal: 6

NDP: 1

 

PEI:

Liberal: 2

Conservative: 1

Green: 1

 

Nova Scotia:

Liberal: 6

Conservative: 4

NDP: 2

 

New Brunswick:

Liberal: 5

Conservative: 4

Green: 1

 

Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois: 38

Liberal: 29
Conservative: 8

NDP: 2

People’s Party of Canada: 1

 

Ontario:

Liberal: 68

Conservative: 39

NDP: 14

 

Manitoba:

Conservative: 8

NDP: 3

Liberal: 3

 

Saskatchewan:

Conservative: 11

NDP: 2

Liberal: 1

 

Alberta:

Conservative: 31

Liberal: 2

NDP: 1

 

British Columbia:

Conservative: 16

NDP: 13

Liberals: 9

Green: 4

Jody Wilson-Raybold: 1

 

NWT:

NDP

 

Nunavut:

Liberal

 

Yukon:

Liberal

 

Total seat count:

Liberal: 157

Conservative: 118

Bloc Quebecois: 38

NDP: 37

Green: 9

People's Party of Canada: 1

Independents: 1

josh

LPC 138

CPC 123

Bloc 38

NDP 35

Greens 2

PPC 1

Ind 1

 

Policywonk

With 18% the mid 30s is probably what the NDP will get based on historical results. I can't see the Greens gaining any seats and I think the Liberals will be wiped out in Alberta. If 20% then they will break 40 seats. The Liberals will have a healthy enough plurality to make Scheer's nonsense moot.

bekayne

Lib: 125
Con: 132
NDP: 33
BQ: 43
GPC: 3
PPC: 1
Ind: 1

Misfit Misfit's picture

bekayne wrote:

Lib: 125
Con: 132
NDP: 33
BQ: 43
GPC: 3
PPC: 1
Ind: 1

With a result like this, the Liberals would partner with the Bloc to form government.

robbie_dee

Reposting this from here

robbie_dee wrote:

LIB 135

CON 130

BQ 38

NDP 29

GRN 04

PPC 01

IND 01 (Jody Wilson-Raybould)

We will know who's right soon enough...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Lib: 125
Con: 132
NDP: 33
BQ: 43
GPC: 3
PPC: 1
Ind: 1

With a result like this, the Liberals would partner with the Bloc to form government.

Which would pretty much make Justin's dad set off a 7.5 earthquake from his grave.

KarlL

I have done hours of poll analysis, riding-by-riding review and then corrupted it all a with a big dollop of blind optimism and partisanship.  My number for the NDP is lower than I had thought that it would be by this point because I think the NDP surge slowed about a week ago - still growing but at a far slower pace.  If the over-20% crew of pollsters is right then that will be proven wrong.

I think that Jagmeet Singh has performed well and has become an acceptable place for people on the centre-left who do not want to vote Liberal this time.  I do not think that he has quite reached the stage of being a big magnet pulling away Liberals who are not deeply disenchanted with Trudeau.

Liberal 147
Conservative 118
NDP 34
Green 2
Bloc Quebecois 35
PPC 1
Independent 1

 

nicky

The Greens will will only one seat- May's, but pull 6 to 7% of the vote. That will allow the Conservatives to salvage about a dozen extra seats, perhaps enough to win more more than the Liberals.

Questions in my mind:

Can the NDP regain urban seats in Atlantic Canada?

Can some individual MPs in Quebec like Dussault, Brosseau and Caron prevail?

Will the Liberals gain some peripheral GTA seats from the Cons? Milton, Barrie, Orillia.

Can the NDP holsd on in SW Ontario? London, Hamilton, Windsor.

Will the NDP regain a few seats in central Toronto?

Will Jagmeet break through with the Sikh vote in Brampton?

Will northern Ontario seats come back to the NDP?

Will Scheer sweep Saskatchewan?

How much mischief will the Green wreck on the NDP?

Will the Liberals rue their betrayal on electoral reform?

 

robbie_dee

nicky wrote:

The Greens will will only one seat- May's, but pull 6 to 7% of the vote.

I suspect the Greens have a decent shot of holding Manley's seat as well, and my prediction above assumed they would win Victoria (BC) and Guelph (ON) as well, although I admit their slumping poll numbers are giving me pause.

KarlL

Aristsotleded24, Some of yours are pretty close to mine but you have 361 total.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

nicky wrote:

The Greens will will only one seat- May's, but pull 6 to 7% of the vote.

I suspect the Greens have a decent shot of holding Manley's seat as well, and my prediction above assumed they would win Victoria (BC) and Guelph (ON) as well, although I admit their slumping poll numbers are giving me pause.

Bob Chamberlin has had big environmental names like Alexandra Morton endorse him. Frankly Manley's main claim to fame seems to be the NDP got pissed at him. His parents are the activists not him. Bob's resume and record show a far superior potential parliamentarian.

Ciabatta2

I think the NDP will win the following Ontairo seats: Algoma-Manitoulin-Kap, Brampton East, Essex, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton Mountain, High Park, London Fanshawe, Timmins, Windsor West. There may be additionals. I don't think the Greens will win Guelph or Parry Sound. Can't really comment on any other ridings directly, though I hope Dussault, Brossault and Boulerice hang on.

DistinguishedFlyer

My own prediction is as follows:

145 Liberals

125 Tories

34 Bloquistes

30 New Democrats

2 Greens

2 Others

 

The NDP wave seems to have receded a little in the last few days; this, combined with the Greens slowly dropping & the general tendency for the incumbent party to do a little better than polls predict, leads me to the above figures. I'll say +/- 12 MPs for a margin of error.

NorthReport

L - 134 seats

C - 127 seats

B - 38 seats

N - 35 seats

G - 2 seats

P - 1 seat

I - 1 seat

Total - 338 seats

(Majority is 170 seats )

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

nicky wrote:

The Greens will will only one seat- May's, but pull 6 to 7% of the vote.

I suspect the Greens have a decent shot of holding Manley's seat as well, and my prediction above assumed they would win Victoria (BC) and Guelph (ON) as well, although I admit their slumping poll numbers are giving me pause.

If the Greens lose Nanaimo-Ladysmith, it will mean Manley has been messed over by two different party leaders in two straight elections.

One of the most positive and principled figures in public life, and he could be right back out in the cold again.

It'd be good for the NDP, but...damn.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

My prediction:

Liberals-140

Cons-120

BLOC-34 (I think the racist social media from their candidates will cost 'em a bit at the end)

NDP-42

Greens-1

PPC-should we maybe start calling it "The PERSON Party of Canada"?- 1

Ind-1

Result:  Liberal/NDP "confidence and supply" agreement for two years.

Debater

When I was in Newfoundland recently, some people were wondering why Jack Harris is running again.

1.  Why run to be in a 3rd party when you could be enjoying retirement?

2.  Why try to take a Liberal seat away that could help the Cons at the end of the night?

But anyway, it will be another close race and interesting to watch.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

When I was in Newfoundland recently, some people were wondering why Jack Harris is running again.

1.  Why run to be in a 3rd party when you could be enjoying retirement?

2.  Why try to take a Liberal seat away that could help the Cons at the end of the night?

But anyway, it will be another close race and interesting to watch.

It's not "a Liberal seat".  It's simply a seat the Liberals currently hold.  And Jack has won this seat in the past, so it's not as if the only possibilities in the riding are  Liberal win or a Con win.

Debater

Yes, of course Jack has won it in the past and is someone of great stature.

But it will be interesting to see how it goes.  Lib support is down in Atlantic Canada vs. 2015, but so is NDP support in some places.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

There are already some early results being reported on CBC Newfoundland and Labrador, but out of respect to those in the rest of the country, I won't report them here.  It seemed right to let people know that this was going on.

josh

Harris elected in St.John's East.

Debater

Congrats to Harris.  He did better than I thought he would.

Libs holding onto more seats so far than expected.

Interesting 3-way race in Fredericton with the Libs, Greens & Cons.  Hope the split doesn't elect the Con there.

Debater

Liberal early lead in Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine.

Sometimes a bellwether for Quebec, but early days yet.

KarlL

I had the NDP at 3 seats in Atlantic Canada and at one won now and 16.9% of the vote, those percentages are not going to go too far.  That said, Atlantic Canada is not necessrily a big indicator, or Chretien would have lost in 1997 and Mulroney would have lost in 1988.

TiradeFaction

Debater wrote:

When I was in Newfoundland recently, some people were wondering why Jack Harris is running again.

1.  Why run to be in a 3rd party when you could be enjoying retirement?

2.  Why try to take a Liberal seat away that could help the Cons at the end of the night?

But anyway, it will be another close race and interesting to watch.

That's interesting because the results aren't even close. It's a decisive win for Jack Harris. Maybe you were hanging out with some out of touch people?

nicky

The Liberals are already losing 9 seats between the Atlantic and one seat in Quebec. They only need to lose 16 to forfeit their majority.

DistinguishedFlyer

Reminding me so far a little bit of 2004 in terms of overall figures; both the Liberals & Tories are getting a slightly higher share of the vote than was expected, with the Liberal lead consequently remaining about where it was forecast.

Too early to be definite, of course, but I'm still comfortable with my earlier guess - Liberals definitely in front, though probably short of an overall majority. Beginning to think my estimate of 145 Grits was a little low, but we'll see.

(Also, looks like the Greens may take Fredericton - they've been leading there for a little while now. I can't recall anyone, even an optimist on this board, predicting that, but I may just have missed such geniuses.)

DistinguishedFlyer

With BC the only province still voting, results are flooding in now.

NDP doing rather well in northern Ontario, but bleeding in Quebec. Bloc doing well so far.

Tory candidate has pulled ahead of Bernier in Beauce, which is just as well. We don't need a repeat of the 1990s, so the sooner his party disappears from the scene the better as far as I'm concerned.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

CBC News projects Liberal government.

KarlL

I don't know why anyone is talking majority.  It is nowhere near a majority based on what is showing - with BC still to come, where the Liberals, even generously, would only win at most a plurality of the seats.

Ciabatta2

Majority seems rather unlikely - seems like the Liberals have hit their max fairly early. NDP vote share not materializing as per the polling. Both the Cons and the Libs a bit higher than expected by some polls. Will have to see if the Greens/NDP will have enough seats to regularly prop them up but right now not likely, Justin will have to rely on the Bloc.

But it's still early. Heck the CBC is calling Bourassa for the NDP ;) That wont last

pookie

Extremely unlikely Libs will get a majority but if it stays where it is it could be a relatively stable minority.  No one is going to want to go back to the polls for a while.

Debater

Liberals leading in Laurier-Sainte Marie with environmentalist Steven Guilbeault.

Will it hold?

josh

Liberal minority projected.

Ciabatta2

I think Guilbealt will hang on. Nailbiter for Ruth Ellen Brosseau. Starting to look like Dussault is toast. Toronto is still all red. It's early but I thought Virani would fall. Looks like I will be wrong on Essex too. Won't be sad to see Pupatello lose though.

josh

Conservatives win Erin Weir's seat by a large margin.

josh

Bernier loses his seat.

DistinguishedFlyer

Wascana looks bad for Ralph Goodale; definitely not good for the Grits out West if he goes, though being right next door to the Tory leader probably didn't help him any either.

His behavior in the lead-up to the campaign was rather vicious for him, and I think a sign of just how far the Liberals have turned into a Trudeau cult, much like the Trump cult down South: deny, downplay or excuse anything your leader does, and always turn it into a nasty (and usually dishonest) attack on the opposition. The sooner both nations are rid of their two loathsome leaders, the better, though obviously it won't start happening tonight.

Also, the Tories have finally surpassed the Liberals in vote share (they've been gaining slowly for a while). If the Tories get more votes but lose the election, it will be the first time that's happened since the 1920s.

Unionist

Fascist Bernier projected to lose his seat. That's good enough for me.

Unionist

josh wrote:

Conservatives win Erin Weir's seat by a large margin.

Screw you, Singh, slave of the backroom boys.

josh

Daniel Blaikie holds his seat.

DistinguishedFlyer

Looks like Milton's gone Liberal this time; overall, the Grits are only down about 2-3 members in Ontario in spite of their lead there being cut from 10% to 5%. Had Doug Ford not become Premier last year, I'm not sure they'd have won tonight.

As for the Ministers-turned-Independents, Jane Philpott has been consistently running third in Markham - Stoufville, while Jody Wilson-Raybould is locked in a tight three-way battle in Vancouver Granville. The Liberal was ahead for a while and now the Tory is, while she's been third (albeit a close third) pretty consistently throughout.

CBC has just given the Greens a fourth seat, but for the life of me I can't find it; could be another error, like when they put the Greens ahead of Dominic LeBlanc for a while earlier in the evening!

Additionally, the Tories have been leading in the popular vote for a little while now (around 0.5% at the moment); if this holds, it will be the first time since the 1920s that the Tories have gotten more votes but still lost (1896 was another instance). Overall, both big parties are getting more votes than expected while the NDP is doing a bit worse. I'd thought the Liberals might get a last-minute bounce, but not the Tories - that's a genuine surprise.

Ciabatta2

So the NDP is looking at confirmed or nearly confirmed: Harris (NFLD), Boulerice (PQ), Angus, Hughes, Duvall, Green, Mathyssen, Masse (ON), Ashton, Blaikie (MB), Kwan, Davies, Julian, Johns and probably Bacharach (BC).

McPherson, the other Vancouver islanders, Singh not out of the woods yet.

Hardcastle, Dussault, Cannings, Qaqqaq, Gazan, Turtle all looking iffy.

 

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Good to hear about the Daniel Blaikie win. How did Niki Ashton do? She was projected to win. And what about Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre.

Ciabatta2

DistinguishedFlyer wrote:

CBC has just given the Greens a fourth seat, but for the life of me I can't find it; could be another error, like when they put the Greens ahead of Dominic LeBlanc for a while earlier in the evening!

The website says it is in Manitoba! Winnipeg Centre.

josh

Ashton won.  The Green is well ahead in Winnipeg Centre.

Looks like NDP will be shut out in Toronto again.

DistinguishedFlyer

laine lowe wrote:

Good to hear about the Daniel Blaikie win. How did Niki Ashton do? She was projected to win. And what about Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre.

Greens leading in Winnipeg Centre right now, and not by a small amount - that's the fourth Green seat I was looking for.

Ciabatta2

The NDP can't win a seat in Toronto or the 905. Ouch.

Ciabatta2

DistinguishedFlyer wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

Good to hear about the Daniel Blaikie win. How did Niki Ashton do? She was projected to win. And what about Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre.

Greens leading in Winnipeg Centre right now, and not by a small amount - that's the fourth Green seat I was looking for.

And now Wpg Centre is back in the NDP column. Errors going on?

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