Canada’s 43rd Election Results & Analysis

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josh

NDP won or leading in 24 seats with about 15% of the vote.  Definitely short of expectations.

DistinguishedFlyer

DistinguishedFlyer wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

Good to hear about the Daniel Blaikie win. How did Niki Ashton do? She was projected to win. And what about Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre.

Greens leading in Winnipeg Centre right now, and not by a small amount - that's the fourth Green seat I was looking for.

Never mind - must have been a computer error after all. NDP leading the Liberals in Winnipeg Centre now.

josh

Ciabatta2 wrote:

DistinguishedFlyer wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

Good to hear about the Daniel Blaikie win. How did Niki Ashton do? She was projected to win. And what about Leah Gazan in Winnipeg Centre.

Greens leading in Winnipeg Centre right now, and not by a small amount - that's the fourth Green seat I was looking for.

And now Wpg Centre is back in the NDP column. Errors going on?

 

Yeah, that made no sense.

KarlL

Nah.  Leah Gazan won by a decent margin.  Liberal a solid second.  Greens nowhere.

Falcon-Ouellette could conceivably but improbably catch Gazan.

Ciabatta2

Watching the Sherbrooke results is a blast.

DistinguishedFlyer

The CBC computer seems to like the Greens: first it put them ahead in Beausejour for a bit, now in Winnipeg Centre. Very curious.

josh

Ralph Goodale defeated.

josh

Sheri Benson narrowly trailing.  She's all that stands in the way of a Conservative sweep of Saskatchewan.

DistinguishedFlyer

Jody Wilson-Raybould now leading in Vancouver Granville, but it's still a close three-way affair.

josh

Heather McPherson holds on in Edmonton for the NDP,

Unionist

Rosemary Barton said Ralph Goodale is a "class act". It's hard to believe that the public broadcaster hires talent like Barton.

Ciabatta2

That comment of hers makes no sense. Goodale is a elbows-up, dirty tricking partisan as it gets. I guess that's what you get for being an old Liberal white man.

nicky

I have not heard any mention on either CBC or CTV of the popular vote.

the Conservatives are currently edging the Liberals by 34.4 to 33.1. NDP has 15.5, Greens 6.2 and Bloc 8.4

josh

Paul Manly retains his seat.

josh

Gazan wins Winnipeg Centre.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

josh wrote:

Paul Manly retains his seat.

If the GPC has any progressive, democratic values at all, they'll make Manly their next leader.  The guy's earned it and he represents everything May has gone out of her way to suppress in the GPC.

Debater

JWR elected in Vancouver-Granville.

Debater

Well, Frank Graves predicted a strong Liberal Minority last night, and he was correct.

Debater

Interesting race in Burnaby North-Seymour.

Svend putting in a good run, but looks like he will finish 2nd.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Interesting race in Burnaby North-Seymour.

Svend putting in a good run, but looks like he will finish 2nd.

Damn.  That's probably it for Svend as far as electoral politics goes.  He deserved a more promising riding.

Debater

I respect Svend enormously.  He had a huge impact by being the first openly-gay MP in Canada, and as a gay Canadian myself I am grateful.

Debater

Scheer is starting to speak even though Singh isn't' finished yet!

Debater

Wow.  Now all 3 are speaking at the same time.

Trudeau, Singh & Scheer.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If only they'd do the decent thing and burst into "Bohemian Rhapsody" together.

KarlL

I thought it pretty classless from Trudeau to step on Scheer's speech but hadn't realized that Scheer had first stepped on Singh's.  That said, Singh did go on a bit for what is supposed to be a queued set of speeches.  Scheer got all of about 90 seconds before he was cut off.  Not that I like him but just sayin'.

Debater

Yeah, I think the problem is that Singh spoke for too long.  This is his first election, so maybe he didn't realize he should have wrapped up.  So then Scheer broke in.  And then Trudeau broke in.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Singh gave a painfully boring speech.

NorthReport

 

Congratulations to the winners.

Conservatives got the most number of votes

Liberals got the most number of seats

This was an unmitigated disaster for the NDP tonite. Just sayin'

And for the Greens as well, but because they are one of the three right-wing parties in Canada, it will be hailed as a great breakthrough by the press.

Debater

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Here is the seat count that I predict:

NL
Liberal: 6

NDP: 1

 

PEI:

Liberal: 2

Conservative: 1

Green: 1

 

Nova Scotia:

Liberal: 6

Conservative: 4

NDP: 2

 

New Brunswick:

Liberal: 5

Conservative: 4

Green: 1

 

Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois: 38

Liberal: 29
Conservative: 8

NDP: 2

People’s Party of Canada: 1

 

Ontario:

Liberal: 68

Conservative: 39

NDP: 14

 

Manitoba:

Conservative: 8

NDP: 3

Liberal: 3

 

Saskatchewan:

Conservative: 11

NDP: 2

Liberal: 1

 

Alberta:

Conservative: 31

Liberal: 2

NDP: 1

 

British Columbia:

Conservative: 16

NDP: 13

Liberals: 9

Green: 4

Jody Wilson-Raybold: 1

 

NWT:

NDP

 

Nunavut:

Liberal

 

Yukon:

Liberal

 

Total seat count:

Liberal: 157

Conservative: 118

Bloc Quebecois: 38

NDP: 37

Green: 9

People's Party of Canada: 1

Independents: 1

Those were pretty good predictions, Aristotle.

Other than being a little high on the numbers for the NDP & Greens, you came very close on the Lib, Con & BQ numbers.

DistinguishedFlyer

Debater wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Total seat count:

Liberal: 157

Conservative: 118

Bloc Quebecois: 38

NDP: 37

Green: 9

People's Party of Canada: 1

Independents: 1

Those were pretty good predictions, Aristotle.

Other than being a little high on the numbers for the NDP & Greens, you came very close on the Lib, Con & BQ numbers.

 

Note that the prediction added up to 361 instead of 338, however.

NorthReport

Party / 2015 Vote / 2019 vote / Diff / 2015 seats / 2019 seats / Diff

L - 39.5% / 33% / Down 6.4% / 184 seats / 157 seats / Down 27 seats

C - 31.9% / 34.4% / Up 2.5% / 99 seats / 121 seats / Up 22 seats

N - 19.7% / 15.9% / Down 3.8% / 44 seats / 24 seats / Down 20 seats

B - 4.7% / 7.7% / Up 3% / 10 seats / 32 seats / Up 22 seats

G - 3.5% / 6.5% / Up 3% / 1 seat / 3 seats / Up 2 seats

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

Debater wrote:

Interesting race in Burnaby North-Seymour.

Svend putting in a good run, but looks like he will finish 2nd.

Damn.  That's probably it for Svend as far as electoral politics goes.  He deserved a more promising riding.


 

I still contend that Burnaby North-Seymour was gerrymandered in the last federal riding redistricting in order to prevent the NDP from winning the riding that contains the Trans-Mountain pipeline terminal.

lagatta4

My candidate, Alexandre Boulerice, won by a good margin, but I think he was the only NDP candidate who did here in Québec. I'm happy about Niki and Leah, otherwise shit results. Fucking hypocrite Steven Guilbeault seems to have won, which is a pox on the sterling left reputation of Laurier-St-Marie. Sad, given that the Projet Montréal candidate won handily in the equivalent borough earlier this month. I didn't attend the rally here yesterday evening as I was dead tired, but at least my fellow campaign workers in Rosemont - La-Petite-Patrie can be proud that our local work paid off at least and we remain on the left at all levels of government.  Livia just woke me up; giving a cursory look at the polls and going back to sleep. I'm also sorry about Svend; not only the first openly gay MP but also someone who stood up to the right wing of the NDP for struggles of oppressed people in Canada and throughout the world.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Misfit wrote:

Singh gave a painfully boring speech.

I was at the Van Granville NDP party while most of the results were coming in. Headed over to the NDP's national party in Burnaby at 9:00. Got there a few minutes before the start of Jagmeet's speech. They played the video of the NDP's final campaign ad, and then they started pumping Jagmeet's campaign song "Read For the Roll." This felt completely tone-deaf for an election where the NDP was reduced from 39 to 24 seats (and where most of the Green New Deal advocates were defeated -- with the exception of Leah Gazan and Matthew Green), so I left before Jagmeet's speech started, and thus havn't seen it.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

The following tweet from Derrick O'Keefe sums up my initial thoughts about the election quite nicely (no going to quote it because it contains an expletive that goes against babble policy).
https://twitter.com/derrickokeefe/status/1186543746319433737

Debater

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Won't be sad to see Pupatello lose though.

What's ironic is that the Libs targeted Windsor West with star candidate Pupatello, but Masse held on.  Meanwhile, it looks like the Libs picked up Windsor-Tecumseh by 642 votes instead.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Party / 2015 Vote / 2019 vote / Diff / 2015 seats / 2019 seats / Diff

L - 39.5% / 33% / Down 6.4% / 184 seats / 157 seats / Down 27 seats

C - 31.9% / 34.4% / Up 2.5% / 99 seats / 121 seats / Up 22 seats

N - 19.7% / 15.9% / Down 3.8% / 44 seats / 24 seats / Down 20 seats

B - 4.7% / 7.7% / Up 3% / 10 seats / 32 seats / Up 22 seats

G - 3.5% / 6.5% / Up 3% / 1 seat / 3 seats / Up 2 seats

After a loss of 20% of your vote and nearly half your seats. a change of direction is something to consider.

robbie_dee

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alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I'm happy with the results, I guess. I'd rather a majority but...

I'm looking forward to how they govern and the NDP is going to have a voice this time around.

Everyone here except a few were saying they'd be happy with a Liberal minority because they'd  force the Liberals to address NDP, maybe implement a few NDP policies or at least policies that are supported by the NDP..

This is still possible.

I just wonder who will lead the NDP now and  how will it affect their policies from now to election #2 ?

It will be an interesting. Now I'll get a good look at the Liberals, who they are.

 

 

JeffWells

A conventionally disappointing result. A Liberal minority, but a strong one, means no "progressive coalition." Liberals can trade off Conservative, Bloc and NDP support to pass whatever legislation they want.

Both Ruth Ellen and Svend losing stings.

This NDP result should be poor enough to trigger serious reflection upon the party's direction and even viability, but experience says it won't. Since it was looking at an electoral wipe-out before Singh caught attention this will be considered a triumph.

nicky

Trudeau won with the lowest share of the popular vote ever, 33.1%.

next lowest: Clark in 1979 with 35.9; Harper in 2006 with 36.3

Pondering

Reflection about direction after just one election under a progressive?  I think not. I don't think direction was the problem. A combination of Singh's turban and Bill 21 killed the NDP chances in Quebec this time around.  The question is, do you get rid of a leader because he can't win because of racism? 

I think the party must keep Singh and that he should resign but only when a strong front runner appears. There is no one to replace him at the moment. I have high hopes for Ashton but I don't know if she is ready yet or if she is too militant. 

Debater

The popular vote share was somewhat low for both the Libs & the Cons.  Although the seat counts for both were better than expected.  What's interesting is that this is still the 2nd best result the Libs have had in seats since Chretien was PM.  And Trudeau was able to maintain the majority of the Liberal seats in Quebec, and the party is also still better off in British Columbia than it has been in many years.

It was surprising to see Ralph Goodale lose in Saskatchewan since he had survived the 2011 Ignatieff debacle.

Likewise, it was surprising to see Deputy Con Leader Lisa Rait lose by so much in Milton.  Everyone knew it would be a close race between her & Olympic medal winner Adam van Koeverden, but I don't think people expected her to lose by such a large margin.

josh

Singh did poorly in the GTA where, if anything, his ethnicity should have been an advantage.  Ashton and Boulerice would be clear alternatives.  Or, if there is a preference for a more “mainstream” alternative, Peter Julian would be a good choice.  But when you lose a quarter of your voters and nearly half your seats, a change is needed.

Pondering

Scheer may have inadvertently helped Trudeau. When Scheer was warning voters about a Liberal/NDP coalition instead of sending more voters to the Conservatives it may have sent more to the Liberals to prevent the Liberals from being forced into a coalition with the NDP. 

MegB

I figured a minority government with an advantage going to the Liberals because Scheer isn't leadership material and too many people are afraid of a Conservative government. If the Libs can form an effective coalition with the NDP and Greens they will continue to control the House and possibly govern in a more demonstrably progressive way. Glad Bernier lost his seat and that the PPC was shut out.

As for the poor showing for the NDP, Singh ran a good campaign but it was too little too late. That, combined with an ongoing lack of vision is what screwed them. They'll never get anywhere until they stop hanging out in the mediocre middle, shift to the left and elect a leader that has both charisma and a well-delivered differentiated progressive vision for the future of Turtle Island.

Pondering

I love my province and I don't consider us any more racist than other areas of the country. I always believed that in the end Singh's turban would prevent him from winning not only in Quebec but across the country. Some of it is racism but some of it is also just mistrust of the unknown and unfamiliar unless you want to start calling newborn babies racists. 

His election as leader of the NDP restored some of my faith in mankind. It is to the credit of the NDP that he was elected. 

His election also moved the party gently to the left. The NDP has now come out clearly against TM and made climate change and income inequality central themes. Singh has branded the party for the future. 

The Conservatives are saying they had a two election plan all along therefore they are on track. They won 34% of the popular vote. That still leaves 66% voting for other parties most of which are more progressive. Bernier didn't even win his own seat. That is cause for celebration. 

I'm disappointed in the NDP showing but I still believe the future will see a reversal in NDP fortunes if they continue to focus on climate change and income inequality. 

Debater

After a close call, it looks like Diane Lebouthillier will hold onto Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine by 600 votes:

https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/10/22/la-gaspesie-reste-liberale

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

That asshole at the Journal, Richard Martinrau, kept referring to Singh as Jagmeet 'the turban' Singh.So was there a bit of bigotry in Québec? I think so.

I have lived here all my life with small periods where I was out of here. I always thought Québec is a tolerant and progressive society. Turns out I mistaken Montréal as a representation of all Québec. Outside Montréal people are right wing xenophobes. We have our share of rednecks. I think rural Quebecers are as bad or worse than Albertans. That says a lot.

Canada is clearly not ready for an ethnic PM. Bernier's Nazi party had 5% support. That is 1.5 million Canadians. That is very alarming. I'm glad that prick lost his seat. Go back to private practice, Bernie.

The NDP will have to find a charismatic leader and a platform that isn't white bread.

Sorry, Jagmeet. I like you. But Canadians not so much.

josh

PPC had 1.6%, and less than 300,000 votes.

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